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Top Stories
Reuters:
"South Korean refiners plan to resume buying crude from Iran in
September after a two-month hiatus due to a European Union embargo that
made shipping the oil difficult, government and refining sources said on
Wednesday. The refiners have, like their Chinese and Indian counterparts,
asked Iran to deliver crude on Iranian tankers, government and industry
sources said. This shifts the responsibility to Iran for insurance,
sidestepping a ban in the EU on insurers from covering Iranian shipments.
Iran has a major interest in keeping its crude flowing to South Korea,
China, India and Japan because they are its top four customers. They buy
more than half of its oil exports... Sources said Iran's crude exports
dropped to about 1.1 million barrels per day in June and July from more
than 2 million bpd at the start of the year. At current prices, the lower
volume means the loss of some $110 million a day in export
earnings." http://t.uani.com/QeWFVs
WSJ:
"After being hit by European and U.S. sanctions, Iran's oil sales
are stabilizing as the country entices buyers with attractive prices and
a form of barter. But proposed new U.S. restrictions could further bite
into its crude exports later this year. South Korea, historically the
fourth-largest buyer of Iranian crude at 239,000 barrels a day,
represents the potential limits of Western pressure on Iranian exports...
The Asian nation stopped buying Iranian oil, which had accounted for
about 10% of its needs, when a ban on insurance coverage from European
companies left private refiners SK Energy and Hyundai Oilbank Co. unable
to load Tehran's crude... Yet, South Korea in recent days has signaled it
was likely to resume crude purchases from Iran, possibly as early as
September... South Korean products are ubiquitous in Tehran-from
smartphones made by Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. to LG Electronics Inc.
televisions and even costume dramas on local televisions; Iranian imports
from the country amounted to $6 billion last year." http://t.uani.com/P4BRod
Reuters:
"A devaluation of the Iranial rial could have a 'severe impact' on
MTN Group's second-half earnings, the South African telecom's chief
financial officer said on Wednesday. Nazir Patel made the comment at a
presentation following the release of the company's first-half results.
MTN owns 49 percent of local mobile operator MTN Irancell. The Iranian
rial has tumbled against the U.S. dollar in free market dealings as
traders have anticipated a devaluation in the official exchange
rate." http://t.uani.com/QFjAO1
Reuters:
"MTN Group is talks with U.S. and South African authorities over
repatriating earnings from its Iranian business, the chief executive of
the South African mobile operator said on Wednesday. Sifiso Dabengwa also
told reporters following the release of the company's first-half earnings
that MTN had not repatriated any funds from Iran in the last six to seven
months. MTN owns 49 percent of local operator MTN Irancell. The company
has said in the past it was having difficulty moving money out of the
country due to tightening U.S. sanctions against Tehran." http://t.uani.com/MjePZQ
Nuclear
Program & Sanctions
Reuters: "A
New York bank regulator's broadside against Standard Chartered Plc for
allegedly hiding US$250-billion in transactions tied to Iran left
investors and the bank questioning the motive for the ambush, which wiped
US$17-billion off its value. London-based Standard Chartered hit back at
the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) threat to tear
up its state banking licence on Tuesday, dismissing the charge that it
was a 'rogue institution' that 'schemed' with the Iranian government as a
distortion of the facts. Bank insiders were as shocked as investors by
the ferocity of the DFS accusations over its involvement with Iran, which
is subject to U.S. sanctions over its nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/OZtQQ1
Bloomberg:
"Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) fell the most in almost 24 years as
an analyst estimated it may face costs of $5.5 billion after being
accused of violating U.S. money laundering laws over its dealings with
Iranian banks. The shares fell 16 percent to 1,228.5 pence in London trading,
their biggest decline since 1988, the earliest date for which data are
available. Standard Chartered may lose its license to operate in New York
after the state's Department of Financial Services found the bank
conducted $250 billion of deals with Iranian banks over seven years and
earned hundreds of millions of dollars in fees for handling transactions
for institutions subject to U.S. economic sanctions." http://t.uani.com/OZtzfX
WSJ:
"Two of India's largest shipping companies which carry crude from Iran
haven't yet been able to find suitable insurance cover, a situation which
could hurt the flow of oil from the sanctions-hit Middle Eastern country.
The Shipping Corp. of India Ltd. -- the country's biggest marine
transporter by fleet size -- isn't getting 'adequate' insurance cover
from local companies, Chairman Sabyasachi Hajara said... Mr. Hajara's
comments show that India is yet to make any headway in getting insurance
for Iran shipments after Europe's insurers withdrew all cover following
the region's sanctions against trade with Tehran. Great Eastern Shipping
Co. Ltd., India's other prominent crude shipper from Iran, has also not
agreed to take local insurance covers." http://t.uani.com/P5sNzz
Reuters:
"Asia is set to import record volumes of oil from West Africa this
year as increasing supplies of high quality crude drive down its export
prices and some buyers shun their traditional supplier, Iran. A Reuters
survey of trade and shipping sources shows end-consumers in China, India,
Indonesia and other Asian countries have bought around 1.74 million
barrels per day (bpd) of West African crude for loading in the first nine
months of this year, up around 8 percent from the same period in
2011." http://t.uani.com/TghwM9
Reuters:
"Iranian investors have snapped up property worth $128 million in
the world's tallest tower, the Burj Khalifa, in the last six months,
according to data from Dubai's government, using cash in many cases as
Western sanctions crimp access to banks. Iranians were the second-largest
buyers of luxury apartments and commercial space in the Burj Khalifa,
after Indian citizens, in the first half of the year, Dubai's land
department said on Tuesday." http://t.uani.com/Nd242z
Syrian Civil
War
WSJ:
"A band of 48 Iranians being held hostage by Syria's rebel army
journeyed from Tehran on a trip organized by a travel agency owned by the
elite troops who support and protect the Iranian regime, people familiar
with the trip said. That connection-denied by Iran, a staunch supporter
of the Assad government-suggests the hostages have strong ties to Iran's
elite Revolutionary Guard Corps, as the rebels claim. Tehran, which says
the hostages are religious pilgrims, warned it would hold the U.S.
responsible for their fate due to its support of the opposition, and
vowed to stand by the Syrian regime amid a growing civil war. The
kidnapped 48 men traveled to Damascus on Saturday as part of a large
contingent on a trip organized by a Revolutionary Guard Corps travel
agency, according to people familiar with the trip." http://t.uani.com/N4pSHG
Reuters:
"Iran's foreign minister said some of the Iranians kidnapped by
Syrian rebels last week are retired soldiers or Revolutionary Guards,
Iranian media reported on Wednesday. 'Some of these beloved ones were on
IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and military pensions ... and
others were from other different departments,' Ali Akbar Salehi said,
according to Iran's student news agency ISNA. He denied they now had any
military connection." http://t.uani.com/O4Emo2
WashPost:
"Iran pledged support for Syria's beleaguered government Tuesday as
forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad battled rebels for control of
Aleppo, unleashing intense bombardments from the air and ground that
forced thousands of civilian inhabitants to flee the country's largest
city. In a high-level show of support, Saeed Jalili, the head of Iran's
Supreme National Security Council, met with Assad in Damascus and vowed
that Iran would help its ally confront 'attempts at blatant foreign interference'
in Syria's internal affairs, the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
reported. Video footage of the meeting, broadcast on Syrian state
television, gave Syrians their first glimpse of Assad in nearly three
weeks - since he was shown on TV swearing in a new defense minister to
replace one of four top security officials who were assassinated in a
July 18 bombing." http://t.uani.com/ORqKf2
NYT:
"Iran said Tuesday that it was holding the United States responsible
for the fate of a group of Iranians held by Syrian rebels, as the
highest-ranking Iranian official to visit Syria since the antigovernment
uprising began there arrived in Damascus to show support for President
Bashar al-Assad and attempt to secure the release of the hostages. The
warning by Iran, Syria's last remaining friendly state government in the
region, came after three of the 48 hostages were reported killed during
an artillery attack on rebel positions by the Syrian Army on Monday and
their captors threatened to kill the rest if the shelling did not stop...
In an unusual move, Iran's Foreign Ministry announced it had sent a
diplomatic note to the Obama administration saying that 'due to its open
support for Syrian terrorist groups' the United States was responsible
for the safety of the abducted Iranians." http://t.uani.com/PF2lHN
Reuters:
"Turkey warned Iran 'in a frank and friendly manner' against blaming
Ankara for violence in Syria, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
said on Wednesday, a day after holding talks with his Iranian
counterpart. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi flew to
neighboring Turkey on Tuesday seeking to mend a relationship sorely
strained by the Syrian uprising and to secure Turkish help for 48
Iranians kidnapped in Syria on Saturday. Turkey was incensed by comments
this week by Iran's top general Hassan Firouzabadi, in which he blamed
Turkey for the bloodshed in Syria and accused Ankara, alongside Saudi
Arabia and Qatar, of helping the 'war-raging goals of America.'" http://t.uani.com/ONQNGr
Foreign Affairs
Guardian:
"Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has finally given
his verdict on the last year's storming of the British embassy in Tehran,
saying it 'was not right' to carry out the attack that provoked a
diplomatic crisis between the two capitals. 'On the recent occupation of
the evil embassy [of Britain], the sentiments of the youth were right but
entering [the embassy] was not right,' he said, according to the
monitoring website Digarban, citing conservative news website baztab-e-emrooz."
http://t.uani.com/NnQa2t
Opinion &
Analysis
Meir Javedanfar in
Bloomberg: "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme
leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran has a lot on his mind these days.
Especially chicken. The rising price of this food staple is the cause of
such anxiety among Iranian officials that last month, Iran's police
chief, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, urged the country's TV stations not to
broadcast images of people eating the birds. He was worried it could lead
to social unrest. Khamenei is Iran's most powerful man, but he knows the
chicken crisis is one he must address. He needs to find a solution to it
and, like any politician, someone to blame. None of the options available
to Khamenei is attractive, a situation that's increasingly the case in
other areas, too. His country is being pushed ever further into
international isolation and economic hardship by its insistence on
pursuing a nuclear-fuel program that the rest of the world believes is
designed to produce weapons, despite Iran's protestations to the
contrary. The supreme leader could, for example, blame the price of
chicken -- which has tripled since last year -- on sanctions that the
U.S. and the European Union imposed to deter Iran from continuing its
nuclear-fuel plan. Yet that would mean admitting to both the West and
ordinary Iranians that sanctions are having a big impact, something the
regime is desperately trying to avoid. Iranian officials have instructed
the news media not to discuss the effect that sanctions are having on the
economy... Khamenei could also compromise on the nuclear program to avoid
subjecting his regime's economy to further pain of sanctions. But so far,
that would require Iran to give up its insistence that it has the right
to enrich uranium, a public defeat for the government. Judging by a
speech he made late last month, Khamenei appears to think he can tough it
out. 'Long-term continuation of sanctions is not in the West's
interests,' he said. The logic of digging in is based on the belief
that once Iran is a regional nuclear power, rivals such as Saudi Arabia,
the U.S. and Europe might find they have no choice but to deal with Iran
on its terms. Yet this carries risks, too: A nuclear bomb might make the
regime even more isolated and subject to hostile policies from regional
and Western countries than before. The supreme leader doubtless knows
that there's a substantial risk he's wrong and that time is not on his
side, but on that of the U.S. and its allies. Sanctions haven't caused
the feared increase in global oil prices, a result of Saudi intervention
and a global economic slowdown. The current cost of sanctions to Iran, by
contrast, is $133 million a day in lost revenue -- annualized, that would
be about 10 percent of the country's annual gross domestic product.
Iran's oil exports are down by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 52
percent... With the added impact of sanctions, Iran's economy now faces
one of its most serious economic crises since the 1979 revolution and
there's little sign of relief. Last week, the U.S. administration
introduced more sanctions, including on Chinese and Iraqi banks doing
business in Iran, to further tighten the noose. Two days later, the U.S.
Congress followed up by voting in favor of further measures against Iran.
Unless a solution is found, the price that Iran's economy is paying for
intransigence may turn its nuclear-fuel program into a bigger danger to
the existence of the regime in Tehran than to the state of Israel.
Khamenei's challenge is to find an answer to this dilemma, without making
feathers fly." http://t.uani.com/ORqKf2
Mehdi Khalaji in
WSJ: "With tensions mounting over Iran's nuclear
program, the West has dealt the Tehran regime crippling blows on several
fronts, including through sanctions, the targeted killing of scientists,
and cyber operations such as the Stuxnet virus. Tehran is no doubt
reeling but regime leaders have spotted a silver lining: The West's
single-minded focus on the nuclear dossier has permitted them to widen
their violations of human rights. Indeed, since the protests that
followed the 2009 election, Iran's human-rights abuses have worsened
substantially-a development that has gone largely unnoticed in the U.S.
and Europe. This is a tragedy with profound strategic implications for
the West. The Iranian legal system allows numerous human-rights
violations, including discrimination against women and ethno-sectarian
minorities, and the imposition of brutal penal sentences, such as
stoning. Tehran's ruling theocrats view human rights as a Western invention
used to undermine Islamic culture and sovereignty as part of what Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei considers a soft war against Iran. They therefore do
not believe themselves duty-bound to uphold their basic human-rights
obligations, including those under international agreements to which they
are party... Even as international attention has drifted away from the
domestic scene in Iran, the mere mention of human-rights abuses still
touches a nerve among regime leaders. Intelligence officials have arrested
prominent lawyers who belong to the Association of Human Rights
Defenders, claiming their activities are illegal... Although Iran's
nuclear program and the bloodshed in Syria dominate U.S. attention in the
Middle East, human-rights abuses in Iran must remain on the Western
radar. Reports of gross abuses from prisoners and other evidence have led
human-rights activists and groups to press strongly for action by
democratic countries to counter abuses inside the country. Such action,
activists believe, would significantly reduce the frequency of
violations, given the Islamic Republic's deep concerns about its image
both domestically and abroad. From the regime's perspective, this same
logic underlies efforts to forbid journalists and activists from
reporting these cases to the media. Thus any publicity given to such
cases could help persuade Iran to alter its behavior for the better.
Western reaction to human-rights abuses can include statements,
declarations, sanctions and travel restriction on officials involved in
human-rights abuse... Whatever the fate of the nuclear crisis, Western
states that joined together to impose sanctions on Iran must keep an open
line of communication with the Iranian people. Likewise, these states
must refrain from imposing additional sanctions without addressing the
suffering of the Iranian people. On the human-rights question, persistent
and steady action offers the best way for the West to demonstrate its
concern over Iranian abuses. Such action will also prevent the Islamic Republic
from labeling Western sanctions as something they are not intended to be:
a Western attack on the Iranian public." http://t.uani.com/NmMQVo
Yasmin Alem in
Al-Monitor: "A trial balloon floated by Iran's
Supreme Leader last year is coming closer to reality and with it, the
prospect that Iran's political system will become even less
representative of popular will. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei first raised the
idea in October of abolishing the directly elected Iranian presidency by
highlighting the regime's flexibility for institutional change. At the
time, his statement elicited an array of reactions from across the
political spectrum. His allies in the parliament and the Guardian
Council, a body that vets candidates for elected office, swiftly endorsed
the proposal, assuring Iranians that well-established legal mechanisms
existed for such a change. Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, speaker of the Guardian
Council, told Khabaronline that the changes would not 'undermine the
republican and democratic values of the regime.' In contrast, former
president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned that eliminating the presidency
would 'undermine the people's power to choose the country's political
direction.' President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was uncharacteristically
tight-lipped on the subject. The Supreme Leader has taken this notion a
step further. In late July, a parliamentary faction was established to
assess the conditions for changing the presidential system to a
parliamentary one, with the 'president' selected by parliament. A newspaper
affiliated with Ahmadinejad decried the change as a subterfuge for
power-hungry factions that have difficulty getting popularly elected - an
ironic comment in view of Ahmadinejad's own disputed re-election in 2009.
(A former Iranian diplomat told Al-Monitor on August 3 that the Supreme
Leader has reportedly anointed former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati
to be the next president.) ... The scheduled 2013 presidential elections
thus present a formidable dilemma to the Iranian regime: It can hold a
tightly controlled election, obviating the possibility of a sudden
surprise but risking a lackluster event damaging its popular image, or
countenance a freer contest that risks ceding ground to rival power
centers or rekindling another revolt. Recent evidence suggests that the
ruling establishment is seriously considering the option of selecting,
rather than electing, the executive-in-chief. In a parliamentary system,
the executive is even more constrained, less likely to step onto the
Supreme Leader's turf and more easily removed from his post if need be.
Impeaching or removing him would be unlikely to ignite popular
movements." http://t.uani.com/PE5p6X
Christopher Dickey
in The Daily Beast: "The powerful Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps, its infamous expeditionary unit, the Quds
Force, and the network of Hezbollah operatives it supports around the
world, are starting to look like the proverbial gang that couldn't shoot
straight. They're still dangerous, to be sure, but a series of recent
incidents widely attributed to these groups suggest that as spies,
assassins, and terrorists, they just aren't what they used to be. And
Tehran is getting worried. According to sources in the Iranian capital,
concerns about IRGC inadequacies are fueling the bitter infighting among
Iran's elites at a critical time: the war in Syria threatens to bring
down Iran's most vital Arab ally, the confrontation with Israel and the
West over Iran's nuclear program has provoked devastating sanctions, and
a military attack on Iran by Israel still looms as a distinct
possibility. This is a bad moment for the Iranians to discover their
fearsome covert operatives are essentially incompetent. Last weekend, for
instance, Syrian rebels captured a group of 48 Iranians who were alleged
to be IRGC members on 'a reconnaissance mission' in Damascus. Rumors have
circulated extensively in Tehran (a very rumor-prone city) that the head
of the Quds Force, Qasem Suleimani himself, was wounded recently when his
convoy was attacked in Damascus. Over the last year, at least nine
apparent Iranian assassination and bomb plots around the world have
failed or been thwarted. The grim attack on a bus full of Israeli
tourists in Bulgaria last month, which killed seven people and wounded
30, appears to have been the exceptional 'success' for these murderers
rather than the rule. On almost every front in a wide-ranging covert war
with Israel and the United States, Iran appears to be suffering major
setbacks. Its nuclear program was disrupted by the Stuxnet computer worm in
2010 and at least one virus since. Its scientists have been attacked and
five of them murdered. According to one source, recent leaks provided
Western intelligence services with detailed information about work on the
Iranian nuclear program at the Parchin military complex, which may have
encouraged the Americans and their allies to toughen their stand in the
faltering talks meant to defuse the crisis... The back and forth of
denial and recrimination is reminiscent of events 30 years ago in
Lebanon, when Iranian agents were captured by hostile militias and the
retaliation came in the form of multiple Iranian-backed kidnappings that
targeted American journalists, a CIA station chief, an American colonel,
and other Westerners. Back then, however, the Iranians and their agents
working under the government's Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) showed
impressive, if frightening, tradecraft. Throughout the 1980s and early
'90s, the Iranians pulled off a series of assassinations targeting
opponents of the regime in Paris, Geneva, Rome, Vienna, and elsewhere.
Sometimes they used guns and sometimes car bombs, as in two attacks on
Jewish targets in Argentina that took more than 100 lives in the early
'90s. On August 6, 1981, Iranian agents murdered a former Iranian prime minister,
Shapour Bakhtiar, in his own heavily guarded house outside of Paris with
a knife from his kitchen, then calmly walked out the front door. In
recent years, however, especially since the political upheaval following
rigged presidential elections in 2009, the MOIS has been pushed aside in
many areas by the separate, independent, and much clumsier IRGC. 'You
read about the elite IRGC and the elite Quds Force,' says a veteran
American operative in the counterterror wars. 'Well, there is nothing
elite about the IRGC. It's not the MOIS, which has a certain
elegance.'" http://t.uani.com/OOvOAA
Michael Levi in
CFR: "Last week the Obama administration tightened
its oil-related sanctions against Iran. This was followed by new
congressional legislation that promises to extend those sanctions
further. Yet less than a year ago, most observers found such stringent
sanctions against the Iranian oil sector unthinkable. What has happened
to so fundamentally change the picture? It's worth looking at three
things. There is no question that the Obama administration was initially
less enthusiastic about oil sanctions than Congress was. But political
power moved in ways that gave Congress more control. Ultimately, the
administration struck a bargain rather than try to defeat sanctions
legislation. It got language that allowed it to exercise extensive
discretion in applying the sanctions: it could hold off if the economy
would be put at substantial risk; it could also exempt other countries
that were making solid efforts to wean themselves off Iranian crude. The
decision to cooperate with Congress was critical - it opened the door for
other factors to push the United States further down the sanctions road.
For years the basic debate over oil market sanctions was simple. One side
said that the Iranian threat was so great that any tool that could put
pressure on Tehran should be used. The other side said that the price was
too high: blocking crude shipments from Iran would tighten world oil
markets, raising prices for gasoline and diesel, and threatening to bring
the economy down. Both arguments gained strength over time: the Iranian
nuclear threat advanced, increasing the urgency of raising pressure;
meanwhile, a weak economy made policymakers allergic to anything that
might threaten recovery. In any case, many agreed, sanctions could easily
be undermined, since China would continue to buy Iranian crude. In late
2011 another strain of thinking rose in prominence. The logic was
straightforward. Most countries would shun Iranian crude. A few, though,
would continue to buy it. Since Iran would now be desperate for
customers, though, it would be forced to offer the crude at a discount.
Iranian revenues would fall but world oil supplies wouldn't; as a result,
world oil prices would remain stable. Chinese purchases of Iranian crude
bad become a selling point rather than a flaw. This theory hasn't quite
played out in practice. China has been able to extract discounts, but
Iranian exports have also been slashed in half. Regardless, the change in
philosophy was essential to getting the sanctions rolling in the first
place. Over the long run oil markets tend to do a good job of balancing
supply and demand. Over the short run they're considerably quirkier. A
central question when people debated Iran oil sanctions a year ago was
whether Saudi Arabia could quickly make up for lost Iranian crude. If
they did, markets would remain well supplied, without prices needing to
rise; if they didn't, all hell could break loose. Indeed even a strong
response from Saudi Arabia was not without potential problems, since a
surge in output would have left Riyadh without much spare capacity left
in case of other problems. But two big market trends came to the rescue.
The first was a surprisingly weak global economy, which left oil demand
below the levels that many had expected. The second was the surge in U.S.
oil production, which has risen by nearly a million barrels a day over
the last year. Over the long run, that much extra production has limited
consequences for world oil markets and prices, which adjust considerably
to compensate. Over the short run, though, it's critical. Surprise gains
in U.S. output have largely offset surprise falls in Iranian exports. The
result for markets has been nearly neutral, something that crude oil
prices reflect. Each of these three factors holds lessons as the
sanctions proceed. Politics will continue to shape U.S. decision-making.
Expectations that China can absorb Iranian oil at a discount seem to be
on the wain. Sustained gains in U.S. oil supplies no longer come as a
surprise to markets - and continued weakness in the global economy isn't
much of a shock either. All of these factors may make ever-tighter
sanction an increasingly challenging task." http://t.uani.com/OLVY6S
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
United Against Nuclear
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commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
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