Monday, May 13, 2013

Eye on Iran: Two Last-Minute Candidates Stir Up Iran Presidential Race










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LAT: "The run-up to Iran's June presidential election took a dramatic turn Saturday with last-minute candidacy announcements by two controversial political figures: former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, top aide to outgoing incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In the final moments before the five-day registration period expired, Rafsanjani and Mashaei arrived via separate entrances at the Interior Ministry, where all would-be candidates were required to sign up by 6 p.m. Saturday. Their cinematic entrance prompted cheers from rival groups of supporters who had gathered outside. Scuffles then erupted between the two groups, and order was not restored until police responded. Ahmadinejad accompanied Mashaei, and the longtime friends held their hands aloft in a show of mutual support. Mashaei thanked the departing president, barred by law from seeking a third four-year term, for encouraging him to run. Despite the theatrics, neither of the two candidates is guaranteed a place on the June 14 ballot. The Guardian Council, composed of senior clerics and jurists, vets candidates to determine who is qualified to run based on a series of criteria. Also among the those registering Saturday was Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, who is seen as a hard-liner close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Other loyalists seeking the presidency include former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati and Tehran's mayor, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf." http://t.uani.com/16u09Rl

NYT: "A day after two game-changing politicians signed up at the last minute as candidates for Iran's presidential elections in June, the country's governing establishment reacted angrily, predicting that they would not be allowed to participate or that they would definitely lose. Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, a protégé of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani signed up at the end of a five-day registration period on Saturday, shocking opponents who had bet on their preferred candidates' being the only ones running in the June 14 election. The governing establishment, a loose alliance of conservative Shiite Muslim clerics and Revolutionary Guards commanders who hold sway over the judiciary, security forces, Parliament and state news media, came out in full force on Sunday, attacking the candidates. 'Hashemi knows he is unpopular, a loser and is too old,' Mehdi Taeb, a hard-line cleric affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying of Mr. Rafsanjani by the semiofficial Fars news agency on Sunday. He added that Mr. Mashaei 'only registered because he wants to sabotage the vote, or make sure there is a low turnout and possibly cause riots on the streets.'" http://t.uani.com/100a4Ky

WSJ: "Iran's Guardian Council, a committee of powerful clerics that vets presidential candidates and acts as a constitutional watchdog, opened a criminal complaint Sunday against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, underscoring the power struggle taking shape in the country as the election nears. The charge came after Mr. Ahmadinejad openly endorsed the candidacy of his top adviser, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, and accompanied the candidate as he registered his nomination on Saturday for the June 14 vote. Iran's constitution bans a seated president and his administration from campaigning for or supporting a presidential candidate. 'We discussed this at a meeting of the committee that supervises elections and everyone unanimously agreed the president had committed a crime,' said Abasali Kadkhodaie, the spokesman for the Guardian Council. Mr. Ahmadinejad hasn't been charged; the judiciary must decide whether to follow up on the complaint. The judiciary didn't comment." http://t.uani.com/13dDPEV
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Nuclear Program

Reuters: "The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it would be a good idea to send experts to check the safety of Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor, a day after Iran said its facilities were safe following a nearby earthquake... '(I think) it is better to send experts to check on the safety of Iran's Bushehr reactor,' Yukiya Amano was quoted as telling the Bahrain News Agency in Manama on Saturday... Iran is the only country operating a nuclear power plant that does not belong to the 75-nation Convention on Nuclear Safety, negotiated after the 1986 nuclear disaster in Chernobyl which contaminated wide areas and forced about 160,000 Ukrainians from their homes." http://t.uani.com/19i8q7y

Sanctions

Platts: "South Korean trader E1 Corp has bought 44,000 mt of LPG from Iran's Petrochemical Commercial Co., possibly the first spot cargo from the Middle Eastern producer to come to Asia this year, after an EU ban on propane and butane trade from Iran brought its exports to a near halt since late last year, market sources said last Friday. The cargo comprising 33,000 mt of refrigerated propane and 11,000 mt butane was purchased via a spot tender by E1 for loading over May 15-25, and will be shipped by PCC on a CFR basis, a source familiar with the matter told Platts... After the EU sanctions on natural gas exports from Iran were included under tightened trade curbs announced last October, most importers in Asia and trading firms have avoided imports from the Middle Eastern producer, even though LPG was not explicitly mentioned at that time. But propane and butane had since been included in an annex to the EU Council Regulation of December 21, 2012, concerning restrictive measures against Iran for its disputed nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/10ltIjV

Trend News: "The Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines has suffered $1 billion loss as a result of international sanctions, ILNA quoted managing director of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines Mohammad Hossein Dajmar as saying. The IRISL revenues have been reduced to below $1 billion from $2 billion, he noted. The country's share in bunkering among regional countries is currently below 10 percent, he said. 'Unfortunately, the national oil industry has been sanctioned. This issue has affected bunkering. European countries have banned Iranian ships from berthing at their ports,' he noted." http://t.uani.com/13sIt5z

Syrian Uprising

WashPost: "Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are beginning to turn the tide of the country's war, bolstered by a new strategy, the support of Iran and Russia and the assistance of fighters with Lebanon's Hezbollah movement... Pro-Assad analysts credit a major restructuring of government forces that has better equipped them to confront the insurgency. The ranks of the conventional Syrian army - weary, depleted and demoralized by defections, casualties and more than a year of continuous fighting - are being swelled by the deployment of some 60,000 militia irregulars trained at least in part by Hezbollah and Iranian advisers." http://t.uani.com/15F6bz1

Human Rights

WSJ: "Every cause has its celebrity. The hunger crisis in Sudan has George Clooney. War refugees in Syria and Pakistan have Angelina Jolie. And now, Iran's human rights struggle has Jon Stewart. The host of the popular Daily Show moderated a panel discussion on Wednesday night (May 8th) in New York City titled 'Censorship and Power in Iran.' The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran hosted the event in partnership with the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and PEN American Center. Mr. Stewart led an hour-long conversation about forced confessions from political prisoners, crackdowns on journalists and bloggers ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in June and the role of technology in suppressing dissent. He was joined by Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari and Joel Simon Executive Director of the Committee to Protect Journalists." http://t.uani.com/19i8uEo

Domestic Politics

AP: "Signs on currency exchange shops in Tehran explained why the doors where temporarily shut: Waiting to see if former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani would seek to reclaim the office. On Sunday, the money changers reopened early amid a mini-surge in Iran's gasping economy after Rafsanjani joined the race. Tehran's stock exchange nudged higher. Merchants cut prices as the slumping Iranian currency clawed back about 4 percent against the U.S. dollar. That's how much Rafsanjani's surprise decision reawakened Iran's presidential election process, which now includes more than 680 hopefuls and will culminate June 14 with just a handful of names on the ballot to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad." http://t.uani.com/17X3zKj

Foreign Affairs

BBC: "Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai Rasoul has summoned Iran's ambassador to protest at the alleged killing of migrants by Iranian border guards. At least 10 people are said to have died as a group of Afghan labourers tried to cross the Iranian border illegally on Friday in search of work. Iranian officials have not confirmed the shooting. Thousands of Afghans enter Iran illegally every year, and about 2.4 million Afghans are resident there. An Afghan foreign ministry statement said the ambassador had been summoned as a 'protest against the killing and injuring of some unarmed Afghans who had entered Iranian soil for work.'" http://t.uani.com/13TDrym

AFP: "Iran has given Reuters news agency permission to reopen its Tehran bureau after work there was suspended in March 2012 over one of its video reports, a culture ministry official said on Saturday. 'The court authorised Reuters to open its Tehran bureau,' deputy culture minister Mohammad Jafar Mohammadzadeh told the ISNA news agency, without specifying when the decision was made. 'Last week the ministry told Reuters it could restart its work in Iran,' he added. In September 2012, a court found Reuters guilty of 'propaganda against the regime', and 'publishing false information in an effort to disturb public opinion' in a report portraying female ninja students as assassins. Tehran withdrew the press credentials of all staff at the bureau after the story was published in March 2012 and suspended the work of the news agency, part of the New York-based Thomson Reuters group. The case stems from a Reuters video report on a group of female ninjas training in the martial art in the city of Karaj, west of Tehran. The original headline on the story erroneously read 'Thousands of female Ninjas train as Iran's assassins.'" http://t.uani.com/ZUnhkD

Opinion & Analysis

Marcus George in Reuters: "After the huge protests that followed the 2009 election, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may have hoped June polls would quietly install a loyal conservative president, but the surprise candidacies of two major independents may scupper that. Both Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, the nationalist protégé of rabble-rousing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and Iran's best known political grandee, are seen as a threat to the leader's authority. Khamenei personally intervened to block Mashaie becoming vice-president in 2009 - such was his disapproval of a man conservatives accuse of leading a 'deviant current' within Islam that seeks to undermine the power of Muslim clerics. Meanwhile, the supreme leader's rivalry with Rafsanjani, a seasoned political operator, goes back decades. Little can be predicted at this stage but if Mashaie makes it through the vetting process, the election on June 14 could turn into a three-horse race between him, Rafsanjani and one of several 'Principlist' candidates - those who are fiercely loyal to Khamenei and the principles of the Islamic Republic. Even if they fail to win, big-name alternative candidates could attract greater public interest in the election, making Khamenei's plan to see an obedient conservative take office a great deal more difficult, despite his ultimate power and the Revolutionary Guards who back him. Struggling with sanctions over its disputed nuclear program and embroiled in civil war in Syria, one of its few and closest allies, Iran's leadership must be keen to show the world it has a strong, harmonious, fully functioning political system. Instead, the race may produce drama and perhaps the unexpected. The contest not only reprises Rafsanjani's fight with Ahmadinejad's camp, which beat him to the presidency in 2005, but also brings into focus his troubled relationship with Khamenei, which disintegrated over his support for the defeated reformist opposition in 2009. 'Rafsanjani poses a challenge. He has said he wants to save the Islamic Republic by changing the hardline direction the country has taken in the past few years,' said Farideh Farhi, an Iran analyst at the University of Hawaii. 'Principlists who have not been able to come up with a candidate that brings together all their competing wings will have to scramble in search of some sort of unity,' she said." http://t.uani.com/12tHQWW

Marcus George in Reuters: "Iran's best known political grandee, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, looms large in the history of the Islamic Republic - now registered to run in Iran's presidential election next month he may also get the chance to carve out its future. Few have wielded such influence in modern Iran as the 78-year-old but since 2009 he and his family have faced political isolation over their support for the opposition movement which lost the disputed election to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad prevailed thanks to the unwavering support of Iran's most powerful authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a move that left gaping divisions in the religious and political elite. Four years on and the leader is under pressure from political divisions at home and sanctions over Iran's nuclear program which are biting deep into the economy and Rafsanjani's practical outlook may be the tonic Iran now needs. 'Rafsanjani is above all a pragmatist, a problem solver. He looks for ways to get things done,' said Shaul Bakhash, of George Mason University in Virginia. 'As president, if Khamenei allows him, I think he would move quickly to hold direct negotiations with the U.S., zero in on getting sanctions lifted, considerably moderate Iran's foreign policy rhetoric and take steps to create conditions for foreign investment,' said Bakhash. Rafsanjani radically alters what was previously seen as a contest between rival conservative groups. He could scupper the hopes of 'Principlists' - those fiercely loyal to Khamenei who want to secure a quick victory and present unity. Significantly, Rafsanjani may be able to draw on the support of reformist groups which have been sidelined since 2009. 'The Principlists will be in serious difficulty because of Rafsanjani. He'll also be representing the reformist camp,' said Sadeq Zibakalam, a professor at Tehran University. Earlier this week, Rafsanjani said he would not enter the field without Khamenei's consent over concern such a move would lead to conflicts and disputes. Analysts say a last minute agreement with the supreme leader may have opened the way for his registration. There have been signs though that the way was being cleared over the last year. Rafsanjani played a central role in hosting of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran last August and some see this as evidence of a deal in the offing. He was also pictured alongside Khamenei and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. But some say his candidacy may be weaker than it appears. 'What we do not know is whether he still has the stomach for a fight, given his age, the life of ease he has led in the last decade, and the love of wealth he has developed,' said Bakhash. On hearing the name Rafsanjani, many Iranians immediately think of the vast fortunes he has amassed." http://t.uani.com/YQsQW4

Michael Rubin in Commentary: "Former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has declared his candidacy for the forthcoming Iranian election, subject to approval of his candidacy from the Guardian Council, a body that determines which candidates are loyal enough to the supreme leader to appear on the ballot. For example, when Mohammad Khatami won the presidency in 1997, he defeated three other candidates but only after the unelected Guardian Council disqualified 234 other candidates deemed too liberal or insufficiency loyal to the supreme leader. More than 680 candidates have registered to run for next month's election; most will never have their names appear on a ballot. The Western press appears both dangerously infatuated with and enthusiastic about Rafsanjani, falsely attributing moderation to the former leader... Among journalists, it seems, it's déjà vu all over again. When Rafsanjani first won the presidency back in 1989, the West was optimistic: The Iran-Iraq War had ended the previous year and revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini had died six weeks before the elections. In both Washington and European capitals-the Salman Rushdie death warrant notwithstanding-there was hope that Iran would turn a new page, and that the revolutionary ayatollahs would move to normalize relations with the international community. It was not to be. Even though Rafsanjani suggested that 'reasonable, prudent solutions' could free the American hostages that Iranian-backed groups continued to hold in Lebanon and despite the fact that the new Iranian president told Pakistani intermediaries that U.S. gestures could grease reconciliation, the Iranians failed to deliver. National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft sought UN mediation, and UN Secretary General Pérez de Cuéllar appointed Giandomenico Picco, an Italian career UN bureaucrat, to be his representative. Picco dutifully flew off to Tehran, where Rafsanjani dismissed outright reconciliation with Washington. To negotiate over the American hostages in Beirut would be to admit Iranian culpability. While Rafsanjani spoke publicly of pragmatism, privately he revived Iran's covert nuclear program-of which he claims to be the father today-and played a crucial role in ordering the assassinations of Iranian dissidents abroad. Some of the most spectacular Iranian terror attacks-such as the 1994 bombing of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires-not only occurred under Rafsanjani's watch but also with his direct authorization. And no one should forget that it was Rafsanjani who, on December 14, 2001, suggested that an Iranian nuclear strike on Israel might be foreseeable, since one nuclear weapon could annihilate Israel while Iran would be large enough to absorb any retaliation." http://t.uani.com/10tqt5Y

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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