Friday, August 9, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iran Has New Ballistic Missile Test Launchpad: Experts









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AFP: "Iran has developed a second rocket-launching facility which will likely be used to test ballistic missiles, a London-based defence analysis group said Thursday. IHS Jane's said it had pinpointed the site outside the city of Shahrud, around 350 kilometres (220 miles) east of Tehran, near the Caspian Sea and the Turkmenistan border. By analysing satellite imagery, Jane's said that construction began at the site between May and September 2010 -- around the same time as the expansion of Iran's existing launchpad in Semnan. Iran's missile programme, along with its space projects, has been a mounting source of concern in the West. Western governments fear Tehran is developing a ballistic capability to enable it to launch atomic warheads which they suspect Iran is seeking to develop under cover of its civil nuclear programme." http://t.uani.com/18ddbQX

Reuters: "The presidency of moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani has opened a window of opportunity in Iran's delicate nuclear diplomacy with the West but Tehran-watchers say that window could close as each side waits for the other to make the first move. Cautious optimism about talks between Iran and six world powers due to restart in September is a stark contrast to the gloom over on-off negotiations under eight years of previous President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad... But both the United States and Iran appear to be waiting for the other side to make the first big concession, which is likely to stall any breakthrough. Rouhani said on Tuesday Iran retained the 'right' to enrich uranium, a position that has scuttled past talks and is likely to be a sticking point again. World powers have demanded Iran cease the enrichment of uranium up to 20 percent and U.N. Security Council resolutions require Iran to suspend all enrichment. 'It was always going to be unlikely that Iran would happily give up enrichment - the Islamic Republic of Iran has painted itself into a corner by elevating the issue to one of national resistance and pride,' Esfandiary said." http://t.uani.com/19PIrJS

Financial Mail (South Africa): "The year-long internal investigation led by UK judge Lord Leonard Hoffmann dismissed allegations brought by rival Turkcell that MTN had got its Iranian licence through corrupt means. Turkcell has since dropped its US$4,2bn law suit but the sudden departure of MTN finance chief Nazir Patel has brought the matter to the fore again. According to the Sunday Times, his resignation relates to attempts to get money out of the country. But despite the cloud hanging over it, the Iranian operation has been a great investment for the mobile operator. It contributes 10% of MTN's total revenue and the company holds 47% of the Persian market. Cash flow problems brought on by US sanctions against Iran regarding its nuclear programme, however, have raised doubts about whether the group can afford to remain there. MTN says it will stay as long as the SA government allows it to but that the sanctions are making it difficult to move money in and out of the country, or access debt facilities and buy equipment. US and European Union financial institutions won't allow it. MTN stated in its 2012 annual report that it had cash of about R7bn on hand which it could not transfer because of the sanctions imposed on Iran and Syria. The company also stated that it was looking for 'acceptable channels that are compliant with applicable sanctions for repatriation of these funds'... This does not mean there's no chance of exiting Iran. 'There is a possibility, if the status quo does not improve,' says Chireka. She says the decision to leave would likely be driven by its inability to bring cash back to SA. 'The problem is that's beyond its control. If it were an operational issue, it could still do something about it.'" http://t.uani.com/1cMVB9V
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Nuclear Program

AFP: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that Iran had expanded its sensitive enrichment of uranium despite the election as president of moderate cleric Hassan Rowhani. 'Iran has not stopped its nuclear programme, even after its presidential election' on June 14, Netanyahu said in comments broadcast by public radio. 'At the moment, they are using 7,000 new centrifuges, including 1,000 which are of a newer type,' he said on a visit to southern Israel. 'The Iranian president is trying to present a new image... but the nuclear programme's progress continues.'" http://t.uani.com/15QDr65 

Sanctions

Bloomberg: "NITC, Iran's biggest tanker company, increased the capacity of its supertanker fleet by 23 percent this year amid sanctions related to the nation's nuclear program that bar most of the world's ships from carrying Iranian crude, according to IHS Maritime. The Tehran-based company added seven new very large crude carriers, each able to transport 2 million barrels of oil, according to data from the Coulsdon, England-based research company, which provides information for the United Nations' shipping agency. NITC has 37 supertankers and its entire fleet can hold about 86 million barrels of oil, equal to 65 days of the nation's exports, IHS data show. European Union sanctions that started in July 2012 prevent most non-Iranian tankers from hauling the country's crude because almost all ships are insured under the 28-nation bloc's laws." http://t.uani.com/17zwUZ4

Just-Auto: "Iran Khodro (IKCO) says it is hopeful Iran's recent election of a new President will allow more partners - as well as its old Renault and Peugeot business allies - to have full operations in the country. Crippling sanctions - to which the new President Hassan Rouhani made reference in his first press conference yesterday (6 August) - have led Renault and PSA to suspend operations in Iran - but IKCO remains optimistic the situation can improve. 'There is a hopeful environment - everybody knows this will be a new prospect - especially the car industry,' an IKCO spokesman told just-auto from Tehran. 'We have seen some foreign partners present in Iran, kind of suspended, but everybody here is very hopeful the new government and new environment will be started.' ... 'It is a pause for the moment - we don't produce any more but that does not mean everything is definitively stopped,' a Renault spokesman told just-auto from Paris. 'We are waiting overall with the election of the new President.'" http://t.uani.com/13mbPjs

Reuters: "Indian Oil Corp, the country's biggest refiner, aims to import 23.4 percent less oil from sanctions-hit Iran in the fiscal year to March 2014 compared with a year earlier, Indian oil minister M. Veerappa Moily said on Tuesday. India's imports of Iranian crude more than halved in June from a year earlier, dropping to 140,800 barrels a day (bpd), tanker data obtained by Reuters showed this month... IOC imported 31,320 bpd or 1.566 million tonnes in the fiscal year ending March 31, and entered into a term deal with Tehran to buy 24,000 bpd in this fiscal year, Moily told lawmakers in a written reply. He said IOC imported about half of the contracted volumes in April-June costing $429 million. IOC's imports from Iran in the last fiscal year ended March were valued at $1.26 billion, of which $653 million were paid in rupees and $415 million were settled in euros, he said." http://t.uani.com/14861cC

Terrorism

AP: "Malaysia police say they have arrested an Iranian man accused of running a passport forging ring and believed to have ties with terrorist and human trafficking groups. Federal police official Fuzi Harun says Seyed Ramin Miraziz Paknejad and his wife were detained Saturday after a two-week police surveillance. Fuzi says Paknejad, 45, was first detained in Thailand last year on suspicion of providing fake passports to human trafficking and drug rings, as well as terrorists plotting out bombings in Bangkok. He says the Iranian jumped bail and fled to Malaysia in June using a fake passport." http://t.uani.com/1beNAsO

Human Rights

HRW: "Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, should immediately withdraw his nomination of Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi for the post of justice minister, Reporters Without Borders, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, and Human Rights Watch said today. Rouhani presented the list of his nominees for cabinet posts to the Iranian parliament during his inauguration ceremony on August 4, 2013... Rights groups have implicated him in abuses that may constitute crimes against humanity, including the executions of thousands of political dissidents in 1988 and the assassinations of several prominent dissident intellectuals in 1998. As justice minister he could play a role in influencing investigations into human rights abuses... Human Rights Watch, in a 2005 report, 'Ministers of Murder,' documented Pour-Mohammadi's direct role in the extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners." http://t.uani.com/19dvZUG

AFP: "The family of a US citizen imprisoned in Iran voiced hope Wednesday for his release, saying that authorities were allowing him contact with the outside world including his ill father. Amir Hekmati, a former US Marine who was born in Arizona to Iranian parents, was arrested nearly two years ago and initially sentenced to death on allegations of espionage. His family and the US government denied the spying charges. Relatives said that Hekmati, a dual citizen who recently turned 30, went to Iran to visit his grandmother. Hekmati, whose death sentence was overturned, spent 16 months in solitary confinement but has now been allowed to meet family, receive books and write letters, his family said." http://t.uani.com/15eH7br

Domestic Politics

WSJ: "Iran's new president, Hasan Rouhani, moved to significantly reduce the presence of the country's elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in Tehran's next government-a trend U.S. and European officials cautiously take as a hopeful sign for international efforts to contain Iran's nuclear program. Mr. Rouhani's cabinet appointments in recent days have marked a sharp reversal from a nearly decadelong trend in which IRGC personnel increasingly have dominated many branches of Iran's government, and their companies have taken over key industries in the national economy... About half of outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's last 18-person cabinet consisted of IRGC personnel, either active officers or recently retired ones. Estimates are that Mr. Rouhani has selected three, according to Western officials and Iran experts." http://t.uani.com/19dwGgI

Opinion & Analysis

Sohrab Ahmari in WSJ: "Hasan Rouhani's inauguration as Iran's president has renewed the Obama administration's dreams of rapprochement with Tehran. In a Sunday statement, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney expressed hope that 'the new Iranian government will heed the will of the voters by making choices that will lead to a better life for the Iranian people.' Should the Islamic Republic choose to engage, Mr. Carney added, 'it will find a willing partner in the United States.' Mr. Rouhani has already been "making choices" that the U.S. might want to take into account before becoming a "willing partner" in dealing with the regime. Consider the Iranian president's new cabinet, announced on Sunday. His picks were generally hailed in the American media as 'reform minded or moderate technocrats', as 'more moderate', or as bearers of 'an olive branch to the U.S.' But these men have long histories in the Islamic Republic, and their statements are in the public record for anyone willing and able to run Google searches in Persian... How could it be that President Rouhani, whose election was greeted in the West as the triumph of a reformer and the promise of positive change, isn't quite as reasonable as he seems? His supporters might suggest that he has matured from the days when, as the Iranian newspaper Etela'at quoted him in May 1995, Mr. Rouhani told a group of pro-regime students that 'the beautiful cry of Death to America unites our nation.' Fast-forward to May 8, 2013, when Mr. Rouhani was campaigning for the presidency. 'Saying Death to America is easy,' Mr. Rouhani said in a speech in the city of Karaj, according to the state-run Mehr News Agency. 'We need to express Death to America with action. Saying it is easy.' Saying that the new Iranian president is a moderate is easy. Finding evidence of it is hard." http://t.uani.com/1euQXM2

Jamsheed Choksy in YaleGlobal: "Iranians - frustrated by a flailing economy, compounded by rigid policies of a theocratic government and sanctions from the West that target the country's nuclear program - expect reforms from President Hassan Rouhani. Iran confronts challenges that, if left unaddressed, will bring severe consequences at home and abroad, warns Jamsheed K. Choksy, professor of Iranian Studies at Indiana University. Iran is a major host country for refugees after years of conflict in neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq, but is a major source country, too, as thousands of Iranians seek asylum. Economic stress takes a toll on health and family life, with high rates of obesity and low rates of marriage and fertility. Choksy explains that 'official and religious pressure may only put more stress on women and lead to their abjuring motherhood even further.' Past officials promised reforms, yet hardline ayatollahs seem intent on pursuing a nuclear program, ignoring discontent and continuing down a path of economic decline." http://t.uani.com/195zHfN

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.


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