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Top Stories
Times of India:
"In a development with serious international ramifications, the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has detained an Indian ship
carrying oil in the Persian Gulf. Sources said the ship, named MT Desh
Shanti, was on its way to India from Iraq when it was detained by the
IRGC. The ship is owned by the Shipping Corporation of India. The
development has stunned authorities here as it was transporting oil from
Iraq, a country which has overtaken Iran as the second largest supplier
of crude to India after Saudi Arabia. The government-owned ship was
detained in international waters in the Persian Gulf before being coerced
into entering Iranian waters. Late Wednesday evening, the ship was on its
way to the Bandar Abbas port, guided by the IRGC. Sources said Iran
claimed to have detained the ship because of environmental concerns.
Tehran authorities conveyed to India that the ship was polluting Iranian
waters, but this is being seen as flimsy reasoning. The development has
shocked the Indian establishment, which on Wednesday evening was still
trying to gather information on the incident. Although India has taken
steps to reduce its crude imports from Iran, Tehran had never hinted that
it could resort to such drastic actions." http://t.uani.com/13n2EEE
Reuters:
"South Korea's imports of crude from Iran unexpectedly surged from a
year ago in July, making it more difficult for Seoul to meet a pledge to
cut oil shipments from the sanctions-hit country in the next few months.
South Korea along with China, India and other Iranian oil buyers agreed
in June to reduce purchases of oil from Iran to extend a six-month waiver
on U.S. sanctions targeting flows of oil money to Iran's nuclear
programme. The Northeast Asian country imported 815,447 tonnes of crude
from Iran last month, up 38 percent from a year ago in the first rise
this year, preliminary data from the Korea Customs Service showed on
Thursday. The imports marked a 44-percent climb from a month ago and,
according to a Reuters calculations, were equivalent to 5.98 million
barrels. That means Seoul imported 165,933 barrels per day (bpd) in
June-July, up 12 percent compared to the previous six months, the
calculations showed. It needs to import less than 126,000 bpd in
June-November to meet its pledge to Washington." http://t.uani.com/1cPOUFD
NYT:
"General Dempsey said Israel's security fears growing from the
Syrian conflict include the flow of arms that could eventually be turned
against Israel, and the prospect of growing Iranian influence in Syria
and throughout the region. After his meetings with Israel's prime
minister, defense minister and military chief of staff, General Dempsey
said, he 'sensed agreement' that diplomatic initiatives and economic sanctions
'were having an effect' on Iran, which is accused of seeking to develop
nuclear arms, an accusation it strongly denies. The Israelis 'of course
want us to continue to present a credible military threat to support
those diplomatic and economic efforts,' General Dempsey said, adding that
he told them, 'since I was here last year, we have better military
options than we did a year ago.' 'That's because we've continued to
refine them,' he said. 'We've continued to develop technology, we've
continued to train and plan.'" http://t.uani.com/14Okoac
Nuclear Program
AFP: "Iran's nuclear programme was at
the centre of discussions on Wednesday between US army chief General
Martin Dempsey and Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon, public radio
said. 'The Iranian regime is involved in all of the conflicts in the
region,' the radio quoted Yaalon as saying during talks in Tel Aviv with
Dempsey which were also attended by Israeli armed forces chief of staff
General Benny Gantz. Iran was also the focus of talks Dempsey held on
Tuesday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The radio said US
military commander wanted to ensure Israel would not launch a pre-emptive
strike against Iran's nuclear programme, which the Jewish state sees as
geared towards developing an atomic warhead." http://t.uani.com/17rUZCd
Sanctions
Dow Jones
Newswires: "Mobile communications firm MTN Group
Ltd. said Wednesday it's still in discussions with U.S. authorities over
how the company can take profits from its business in Iran out of the
country. MTN has a 49% stake in Iran's second largest mobile phone
operator, but since early last year, the company said it hasn't been able
to repatriate profits because of sanctions against the country.
'Discussions are advanced,' Chief Executive Officer Sifiso Dabengwa said
during a results presentation. 'We believe a resolution will be reached
before the end of the year.' Mr. Dabengwa didn't provide further details
but said the company is discussing with the U.S. State Department and
Treasury as well as the South African Reserve Bank." http://t.uani.com/17PDaMl
Opinion &
Analysis
Ray Takeyh in NYT:
"One of the enduring aspects of Washington's Iran debate is its wild
oscillations between the hysteria of war and the euphoria of reconciliation.
The Islamic Republic has a new president: He smiles and pledges soothing
moderation. The jaded envoys who have been struggling with the Iran issue
for the past decade - a period that included Hassan Rouhani's stewardship
of the nuclear file - are suddenly optimistic. It is important to
remember, however, that the American diplomats dealing with Iran suffer
from a fundamental confusion about the nature of the Islamist state. The
United States is accustomed to dealing with opportunistic Arab rulers but
not with clerics who take their ideologies seriously. At times,
reasonable men have reached high office in the Persian theocratic state
only to have their pragmatism numbed by its founding ideology. It remains
to be seen whether Rouhani can transcend the obstacles that bedeviled his
predecessors... But the Iranian revolution of 1979 introduced a regime
unique in the modern Middle East. The Islamic Republic has a mission of
redeeming the region for the forces of righteousness. Despite the costs
and burdens, Persian Iran has struggled against a range of what it
perceives to be iniquitous forces, particularly the United States and its
allies. It sees itself as a vanguard state led by a dedicated cadre that
will lead the subjugated masses toward justice and salvation.
Anti-imperialism and anti-Zionism are the touchstones of its orthodoxy.
And yet no country can live on ideology alone. Iran has had to operate
its economy, deal with regional demands, and even transact unsavory
bargains with adversaries. When granted the opportunity, Iran's youth and
middle class vote for politicians who promise relief. A segment of the
theocracy has sought to smooth the hard edges of their creed and respond
to the populace's yearning for a normal life. Presidents ranging from the
corrupt Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to the reformist Mohammad Khatami
hoped to chart a new course and balance the revolution's mandates with
their constituents' tangible concerns. All of them failed to square this
circle. Enter Rouhani, the latest politician to undertake this most
difficult of balancing acts. Unfortunately, his guile and initiatives are
bound to be circumscribed by the regime's ideology. One of the tragedies
of the Islamic Republic is that its pragmatism often emanates from
offices subordinate to the unelected power centers... In the coming
months, Rouhani and his diplomats will inevitably profess their readiness
to deal in earnest. The possibility of a limited deal addressing some of
the more urgent aspects of Iran's nuclear program should not be ruled
out. If such a deal is done, then it must be welcomed. But standing
behind these deliberations will be the untrusting Ayatollah Khamenei and
his allies who will always need an American nemesis to justify their
ideology to themselves." http://t.uani.com/17PDCtZ
Amb. Adam Ereli in
The Hill: "With the election of a 'moderate' as
president of Iran, well-intentioned policymakers see an opportunity for
renewed engagement with the Islamic republic. Reports of Iran's
preparations of a new ballistic missile launch site at Shahrud, however,
underscore a fundamental truth of modern diplomacy: Hope springs eternal
in democracies, and autocratic regimes know how to exploit it to their
advantage. Over the past few weeks, we've heard intriguing statements
from the Obama administration. On August 4, White House spokesman
Jay Carney said of Iran's nuclear program, 'Should this new government
choose to engage substantively and seriously to meet its international
obligations and find a peaceful solution to this issue, it will find a
willing partner in the United States.' A senior administration official
echoed this view: '(We) want to give the newly elected president a chance
to engage substantively on the issue.' Get ready for a re-run of the same
old soap opera that we've seen before. Iran's English-speaking
made-for-TV mouthpieces will entice us with the promise of 'dialogue',
'confidence-building' and 'mutual respect.' U.S. officials will respond
with studied sobriety and qualified caution. Diplomatic foreplay in the
form of enticing public statements will be followed by talks about talks.
The question is: Will the government of President Rouhani prove
fundamentally different in outlook and intentions than its predecessors?
Not likely. Iran isn't interested in compromise or concessions.
Their intentions are clear, their resolve unwavering. Consider the
facts. While the Iranian presidency may have changed hands, the
underlying realities of Iranian power have not. The president's
powers are quite limited. Constitutionally, authority rests in the
Supreme Leader, who once described the president as a mere 'logistics
man.' In addition to controlling the executive, legislative and judicial
branches, the Supreme Leader appoints the commanders of the Revolutionary
Guards, Armed Forces and state radio and TV. Foreign policy and national
security are under his direct supervision. An examination of President
Rouhani's past leaves little optimism that, circumscribed though he may
be, the leopard will change his spots... Now is not the time to give the
regime breathing room. It will reinforce the power of the
hard-liners and undermine the unity of purpose of our allies. Stay
the course on Iran." http://t.uani.com/127obhS
Nicholas Burns in
The Boston Globe: "With a speed few predicted,
Iran's new president, Hassan Rowhani, has signaled his interest in
negotiations this autumn on Iran's controversial nuclear program. This
could produce the first extensive contact between Washington and Tehran
since diplomatic relations ruptured during the Jimmy Carter
administration. In an extraordinary press conference last week, Rowhani
pledged 'to enter negotiations which are serious and substantive.' He
also appointed Javad Zarif as his foreign minister; Zarif understands
America from his time in New York as UN ambassador, and has worked
effectively with US diplomats in establishing the new Afghan government
after the fall of the Taliban. There are nagging doubts, however, about
how genuine a reformer Rowhani really is. Can he actually deliver, given
Iran's past lies and deceptions about its nuclear program? He has been a
loyal servant of Iran's revolutionary government since its birth and a
consistent supporter of the nuclear program. And even if he wanted to
reach a deal with the United States on the nuclear issue, he could be
overruled by the more powerful, anti-American Supreme Leader, Ali
Khamenei. The only way to test him, of course, is at the negotiating
table. That is why President Obama is right to exploit this rare diplomatic
opening. While the main discussions will be between Iran on one side and
the United States, Europe, Russia, and China on the other, look for
American and Iranian negotiators to arrange direct talks on the margins
to explore the many serious issues that divide them. If negotiations
jell, they may well extend into 2014 and require the personal leadership
of Secretary of State John Kerry, given the high stakes for both
countries. While Iran's drive for nuclear weapons will be the core focus
of the talks, the Obama team should consider opening a wide-ranging
conversation with Zarif and the Iranian leadership. The United States
might offer an expansive view of what can be achieved if Iran agrees to a
non-nuclear weapons future. The United States could offer trade, aid, and
exchanges to match Iranian concessions in opening rounds. Such a big,
strategic approach would not be charity. On the contrary, it would also
permit the United States to raise our strong opposition to Iran's
objectionable behavior in Syria and Iraq and its opposition to Israel.
The United States will also need to keep pressure on Iran. Former
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice agreed with me at an Aspen Strategy
Group public forum last week that the United States should maintain
sanctions and the threat of force on Iran during the talks. Such an
approach may be the only way to convince Iran to make the concessions
necessary for progress." http://t.uani.com/1eMbUlw
Stratfor in
Forbes: "There are growing indications that Iran,
Syria and their local proxies may be attempting to build up militant
capabilities in the West Bank to eventually threaten Israel. Physically
transferring weapons into Fatah-controlled West Bank will remain a key
challenge, as recent arrests of weapons smugglers in Jordan have shown.
Though Iran and Syria face many constraints in trying to spread militancy
to the West Bank, their quiet efforts are worth noting, particularly as
Hamas and Iran are now finding reasons to repair their relationship after
a period of strain. In the past several days, Jordanian authorities have
reported two separate incidents in which groups of smugglers traveling
from Syria have been caught with weapons and drugs in Jordan... The
smuggling operations fit with a pattern that Stratfor identified in November
2012, when Palestinian contacts in the region reported that Iran was
working with Palestinian groups to try to transport munitions through
Iraq and Jordan to the West Bank. To achieve this, Iran would likely work
through Syrian intelligence and local Palestinian proxies." http://t.uani.com/141Wqsg
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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