FOR
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 13,
2015
Phone: (212) 554-3296
UANI Analysis: P5+1 Concessions to
Iran in Nuclear Negotiations
New York,
NY - Today, United Against Nuclear
Iran (UANI) is releasing a new analysis of the current status of
negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. The analysis compares the
positions of the U.S. and Iran on each of the core components of an
emerging nuclear accord.
UANI's resource
analyzes the evolution of U.S. and Iranian regime positions on
centrifuges and enrichment capacity, the Arak heavy water reactor,
advanced centrifuges and R&D, the Fordow underground enrichment
facility, Iran's ballistic missile program, and resolving allegations
about nuclear weaponization activities.
1.
Duration
of Agreement: When Will Be the "Sunset" of a Deal?
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
|
Iran
|
|
Reports indicate that a final deal will
restrict Iran's nuclear program for a period of 10 years, at which
point these restrictions will be gradually lifted and Iran will be able
to resume expanding its nuclear program. 5 years later, all
restrictions will be lifted and Iran will be permitted to expand and
develop its nuclear program as it sees fit.
|
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Summary: Iran Will Be Able to
Expand Its Nuclear Program in 10 Years
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ADVANTAGE: IRAN
|
2.
Centrifuges:
The Size of Iran's Uranium Enrichment Program and the Speed to Produce
Fissile Material
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
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Iran
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Then-White House Press Secretary Jay Carney:
"Iran does not need nearly the centrifuge capacity that it has
today... As part of a comprehensive solution, we will require that Iran
dismantle a significant amount of its nuclear infrastructure related to
uranium enrichment."
|
|
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei:
"On the issue of enrichment, their [the P5+1] goal is to make the
Islamic Republic satisfied with 10,000 SWUs [separative work units, the
measurement used in enrichment]. But they have begun from 500, 1000.
Approximately, 10,000 SWUs are the product of 10,000 centrifuges-the
ones that we already have. This is their goal. Officials tell us that
we need about 190,000 SWUs [equal to approximately 190,000
centrifuges]."
|
Summary: Iran Will Retain
Industrial-Scale Enrichment Capacity
|
ADVANTAGE: IRAN
|
3.
Arak
Heavy Water Reactor: The Plutonium Path to the Bomb
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
|
Iran
|
President Obama: "They certainly
don't need a heavy-water reactor at Arak in order to have a peaceful
nuclear program."
|
Iran
will reportedly be allowed to retain its heavy-water reactor at Arak.
Initially, the administration demanded the dismantling of the reactor
but now it appears Iran will only be required to redesign the reactor to produce less
plutonium.
|
Deputy Foreign Minister Araghchi:
"Your actions and words show you don't want us to have the Arak
heavy water reactor which means you want to deprive us of our rights.
But you should know that it is a red line which we will never cross...
We want to have more heavy water reactors in future."
|
Summary: Iran Will Be Allowed to
Retain Its Heavy Water Reactor
|
ADVANTAGE: IRAN
|
4.
Advanced
Centrifuges and R&D: Revolutionizing Iran's Breakout Capacity
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
|
Iran
|
President Obama: "They don't need
some of the advanced centrifuges that they currently possess in order
to have a limited, peaceful nuclear program."
|
According
to reports, work on Iran's existing
advanced centrifuge models would be permitted to continue. If put into
operation, these centrifuges would dramatically reduce Iran's breakout
time to only a matter of weeks, if not days.
|
|
Summary: Iran's R&D on
Advanced Centrifuges Will Continue
|
ADVANTAGE: IRAN
|
5.
Fordow
Enrichment Facility: Iran's Fortified, Underground Breakout Site
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
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Iran
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President Obama: "Now, in terms of
specifics, we know that they don't need to have an underground,
fortified facility like Fordo[w] in order to have a peaceful nuclear
program."
|
Instead
of dismantling and closing down the enrichment facility at Fordow--as
the Administration initially demanded--it appears Fordow will be
re-purposed and might be turned into a research facility.
|
President Rouhani: It is "100
percent" a "red line" for Iran to dismantle any nuclear
facilities.
|
Summary: Iran Will Be Able to Keep
Fordow
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ADVANTAGE: IRAN
|
6.
Ballistic
Missile Program: The Delivery Vehicle for an Iranian Bomb
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
|
Iran
|
Then-White House Press Secretary Jay Carney:
"They have to deal with matters related to their ballistic missile
program that are included in the United Nations Security Council
resolution that is part of explicitly, according to the Joint Plan of
Action, the comprehensive resolution negotiation."
|
The
P5+1 apparently no longer seeks to restrict or rollback
Iran's ballistic missile program, despite its suspected purpose of creating a delivery
vehicle for a nuclear payload.
|
|
Summary: Iran Will Have No
Limitations on Its Ballistic Missile Program
|
ADVANTAGE: IRAN
|
7.
Weaponization
Allegations: Iran Stonewalls Investigation into Its Nuclear Weapons
Research
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
|
Iran
|
|
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Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi:
"We don't have any more problems with IAEA on the nuclear issue.
There are no more questions that we haven't answered. In other words,
we can say Iran's nuclear activities is a closed case already."
|
Summary: Iran Will Not Have to
Come Clean on Its Weaponization Activities
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ADVANTAGE: IRAN
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8.
Inspection
& Verification: Verifying Compliance and Detecting Undeclared Nuclear
Activities
USA
|
Current
Status in Negotiations
|
Iran
|
Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken:
"What has to result from any agreement is the strongest, most
intrusive inspection and access program that any country has ever seen,
because Iran has forfeited the trust of the international
community."
|
One
of the key remaining disputes between the negotiating parties is the scope
of inspections.
|
|
Summary: In Dispute
|
9.
Sanctions
Relief: Timing and Scope of Sanctions Easing
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
|
Iran
|
Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken:
"In exchange, the international community would provide Iran with
phased sanctions relief tied to verifiable actions on its part. Such
relief would be structured to be easily reversed so that sanctions
could be quickly re-imposed if Iran were to violate its
commitments."
|
|
|
Summary: In Dispute
|
10.
Stockpile
of Enriched Uranium: How Many Bombs Iran Can Produce
USA
|
Current Status in Negotiations
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Iran
|
Senior
Obama Administration official:
"The issue we have to explore in this set of negotiations is
whether there is some possible enrichment capability and stockpile that
would be consistent with the assurances we need that Iran is not in a
position to develop a nuclear weapon without the international
community having a long lead time and notice in
advance."
|
There have been reports that "Iran has tentatively agreed to ship
much of its huge stockpile of uranium to Russia... Under the proposed
agreement, the Russians would convert the uranium into specialized fuel
rods for the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iran's only commercial
reactor." Iran has rejected these reports.
|
Deputy
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi: "Of course we will negotiate regarding the form, amount,
and various levels of [uranium] enrichment, but the shipping of
materials out of the country is our red line."
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Summary: In Dispute
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###
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