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In this mailing:
by Denis MacEoin
• March 10, 2015 at 5:00 am
Given
Iran's tendency to enrich uranium in secret, it may achieve nuclear
breakout capability well before ten years from now.
Nor
should we forget that current polls place Mahmoud Ahmadinejad close
behind Hassan Rouhani for the 2017 presidential election.
An
exhaustive list of genocidal threats by major Iranian politicians between
2009 and 2012 has been compiled by the Jerusalem Center for Public
Affairs. The latest threat was made on March 1 of this year.
The
Islamic State and other terrorists do not represent an idealized version
of normative Islam, and a number of Muslims may not even support them.
But their scriptural and historical roots frankly have plenty of
precedent, and far from minimal support.
Shi'i
Islam is a very different belief system from Sunni Islam. Iran today
resembles a medieval European state.
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Since "moderate" Hassan Rouhani (right)
became the president of Iran, the surge in executions has given Iran
the world's highest death penalty rate per capita.
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When Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu spoke from the podium
of the U.S. Congress to warn of the dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran, the
clock was already ticking towards March 31. That is the deadline for a
final agreement between the P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council
members plus Germany) and the Iranian regime on limits to Iran's nuclear
program, in return for the lifting of sanctions currently imposed on
Iran.
By now, everyone has read page upon page of commentary on what the
likely consequences of such a deal may be, with a preponderance of
analysts agreeing that President Barack Obama's drive to secure a
resolution is likely to put Iran on a clear course to nuclear weapons
capability after about ten years. Given Iran's tendency to enrich uranium
in secret, they may achieve nuclear breakout capability well before ten
years from now.
by Lawrence A. Franklin
• March 10, 2015 at 4:00 am
If
and when the Islamic State is defeated in Iraq, the long-postponed
struggle between Iraq and the Kurds will recommence. Unless Iran, now
fighting the Islamic State in Iraq, takes over first.
According
to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) ministers, Baghdad does not
want the Kurds to possess heavy weapons: it would make more difficult any
attempt by the Iraqi central government to compel Iraqi Kurdistan to
remain within Iraq.
It is
also hard to discount the temptation for the central government of Iraq
simply to hang on to valuable materiel. It may have been presented with
no strings attached, or with no negative consequences should the strings
somehow become "unattached."
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Image source: United Nations Iraq.
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Recent press reports have described, in a negative manner, Kurdish
efforts to reclaim lands lost to Saddam Hussein's policy of
"Arabization", which included the ethnic cleansing of Kurds
from various Iraqi governorates, districts, and sub-districts.
A recent Newsweek article focused on a January offensive by
Kurdish peshmerga forces, backed by US-led coalition air strikes,
which resulted in the capture of a 300 square mile area. This territory
was formerly under the control of the so-called Islamic State, and included
many areas from which Kurdish families had been dispossessed of their
land, or forced to emigrate, by Saddam Hussein's regime. The article went
on to describe a Kurdish "land-grab," Ninevah Governorate
following their offensive.
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