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WSJ:
"Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh will meet German Energy
Minister Sigmar Gabriel in Berlin on Thursday, a rare encounter with a
government official in Europe amid hopes a nuclear agreement between
Tehran and world powers could be completed. A spokeswoman for Germany's
Economics and Energy Ministry declined to provide further details on
the meeting, which will be closed to the press. Mr. Gabriel is also
Germany's vice chancellor and minister for economics in Chancellor
Angela Merkel's government. Iran has been courting European Union
countries to invest in its vast energy potential, offering to export
its natural gas to Europe as it seeks it diversify away from Russia.
The contact would be among the highest levels of bilateral engagement
so far with a European government, suggesting western nations are now
willing to engage directly with Iran outside the framework of nuclear
talks. The bilateral meeting comes after an official Polish delegation
held talks in Tehran on Tuesday to buy its oil if sanctions are
lifted." http://t.uani.com/1IkoScf
AFP:
"The US Navy has halted a mission to accompany American-flagged
vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon said
Wednesday, in a sign of reduced tensions in the strategic waterway. The
protection mission had been ordered last week after a Marshall
Islands-flagged ship was seized by Iran's Revolutionary Guard forces
and a US-flagged vessel was harassed. The mission came to an end on
Tuesday but US warships will remain in the area to conduct 'routine maritime
security operations,' spokesman Colonel Steven Warren told reporters.
The US naval commander in the region 'adjusts his mission based on his
view of the conditions' and there had been 'several days without
incident,' Warren said. The order to accompany US-flagged vessels
expired on Tuesday and commanders chose not to renew it, he said."
http://t.uani.com/1Qq0uIW
Politico:
"President Barack Obama may be racing to secure a nuclear deal
with Iran, but his nonproliferation legacy could ultimately hinge on a
country further to the east - one that already has nuclear weapons and
is led by an unpredictable 30-something. When it comes to curbing North
Korea's nukes, even administration officials acknowledge that diplomacy
is in a holding pattern. Detractors and some supporters say the
administration has given up trying to stop North Korea's steadily
expanding program; others say Obama's team has missed opportunities to
resume formal negotiations with Pyongyang. And some critics argue the
U.S. should further toughen sanctions on the hermit-like Asian country.
The White House failure to stop North Korea, despite nuclear agreements
struck in the past, doesn't bode well for whatever deal emerges with
Iran, critics argue." http://t.uani.com/1zN0Bu5
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Free Beacon:
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel warned a delegation
of U.S. lawmakers this week that a nuclear deal with Iran 'would be a
historic mistake,' according to a readout of the meeting between the
leaders... Netanyahu slammed the nuclear deal currently under
consideration and said it would endanger the Middle East and America.
'The Prime Minister was direct and candid in describing the threat
posed by Iran,' Rep. Vern Buchanan (R., Fla.), one of the members in
attendance at the meeting, told the Washington Free Beacon. Netanyahu
warned that the West is being 'duped' and 'was adamant that a nuclear
deal with Iran would be a historic mistake,' Buchanan said in a
separate statement issued following his two-hour meeting with the prime
minister and senior Israeli military officials." http://t.uani.com/1bAAivu
Military
Matters
AP:
"A Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship seized by Iran has been
released and the crew members are all in good condition, according to
the ship's operator. Rickmers Ship Management told The Associated Press
in an e-mail Thursday that the MV Maersk Tigris was released following
a court order. It will now continue its scheduled voyage to Jebel Ali,
in the United Arab Emirates, where it will be met by representatives
from Rickmers and others. Iranian forces seized the ship April 28 as it
traversed the Strait of Hormuz. It was taken to Bandar Abbas, the main
port of Iran's navy, under escort by Iranian patrol boats. Iran claimed
that the Danish shipping company that chartered the ship, Maersk Line,
owed money to an Iranian firm... In Copenhagen, Maersk Line spokesman
Michael Storgaard told AP that the case 'is not over yet,' but
confirmed that the company was committed to covering the $163,000 debt
claimed by the Iranian firm, if necessary. 'We have said we would be
willing to pay the $163,000 but for now we have not paid anything,' he
said." http://t.uani.com/1JS4HnW
Congressional
Action
NYT:
"A bill that would give Congress a voice in any nuclear agreement
between world powers and Iran is headed for a procedural vote, and
perhaps even final passage, in the Senate on Thursday, but Republican
infighting could still dash hopes of a speedy conclusion for the
measure. Democrats and Republicans were moving toward a delicate
agreement that would allow Republicans a few modest amendments to the
bill, though the legislative process has been advancing in a manner
resembling molasses slinking down a mixing bowl. The latest actor in
the measure's slow walk is one of Congress's most experienced, Senator
David Vitter, Republican of Louisiana. Long a thorn in the side of
Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada, when he was majority leader,
Mr. Vitter showed on Wednesday that he may be the same for the
Republican leadership. Mr. Vitter, who craves to offer an amendment
that would require an assessment of the international monitoring and
verification system in any Iran deal, wanted both to modify the
language to make the amendment a bit tougher and to make sure it got a
vote, both of which seemed to be nonstarters." http://t.uani.com/1IRx5oU
Sanctions
Relief
The Hill:
"Iran is wooing American oil companies in anticipation of a time
when Western interests can take advantage of the Middle Eastern
nation's vast crude reserves. A delegation of U.S. oil company leaders
and investors heads to Tehran this week to discuss opportunities to
operate there if the U.S. lifts sanctions on Iran this summer as
part of a deal to restrict its nuclear capabilities, Iran's state media
reported. The trip is shrouded in secrecy. Iran's government has
declined to identify the participants, and none of several major oil
companies and trade groups contacted by The Hill would confirm
attendance. However, Deputy Oil Minister Abbas Sheri-Moghaddam proudly
touted American involvement as evidence of heightened interest in doing
business with Iran. 'We will witness involvement of major international
American oil and gas companies in Iran in the future,' Sheri-Moghaddam
told Mehr News Agency." http://t.uani.com/1H1yy9Z
Reuters:
"India reached a deal on Wednesday to develop a strategic port in
southeast Iran despite U.S. pressure not to rush into any such trade
agreements before world powers clinch a final nuclear accord with
Tehran. Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari and his Iranian counterpart
Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi signed a memorandum of understanding to develop
the Chabahar Port on the Gulf of Oman, near Iran's border with India's
arch rival Pakistan. 'Indian firms will lease two existing berths at
the port and operationalise them as container and multi-purpose cargo
terminals,' the Indian government said in a statement, adding that a
commercial accord would be needed to implement the pact. India and Iran
agreed in 2003 to develop the port, but the venture has made little
progress because of Western sanctions tied to Tehran's disputed atomic
programme." http://t.uani.com/1AHCdF7
AFP:
"A nuclear agreement will allow Iran to become the number one
energy player in the Middle East and herald major opportunities for
foreign companies, top government officials in Tehran said Wednesday.
The remarks, at an industry event, underlined the broader political and
economic implications should sanctions on Iran be lifted under a deal,
following long-running diplomatic efforts with six world powers... Oil
Minister Bijan Zanganeh, who as nuclear talks have progressed in recent
months has signalled willingness to see global oil giants return, said
cooperation was essential... 'We have to use the foreign companies that
will come to us after the removal of sanctions... to increase exports
and access regional markets,' Zanganeh said in a speech at Iran's 20th
Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Fair. 'It is understandable that
they left us during hard times. But we hope to prepare ourselves to
work with them for a future in which we become the industry's number
one in the region.' ... During the nuclear crisis Iran has relied on
domestic oil firms and though this will continue, Vice President Eshaq
Jahangiri, at the same event as Zanganeh, said: 'We don't have any
option but to join the international production and distribution
chain.' New contracts prepared by the oil ministry would lure energy
majors back, he said." http://t.uani.com/1EkdNlP
Opinion &
Analysis
Yaroslav
Trofimov in WSJ: "The nuclear deal that the U.S.
and other world powers hope to reach with Iran would put a 10-year curb
on the Islamic republic's nuclear program. For some of Iran's regional
rivals, that is also becoming a deadline for developing nuclear arms of
their own. In Saudi Arabia, there are widespread public calls to match
Iran's nuclear quest. The two other Middle East heavyweights, Turkey
and Egypt, could also feel compelled to follow suit, senior Western and
Arab officials warn. Such an arms race would further destabilize what
is already the world's most volatile region, where the risks of a
nuclear war would be compounded by the threat of radioactive material
falling into the hands of terrorist groups. While Saudi Arabia has long
advocated a nuclear-free Middle East, its leaders are doubtful that the
completed accord on limiting Tehran's nuclear program will stop Iran
from becoming a threshold nuclear-weapons power when proposed
restrictions on is number of centrifuges and uranium stockpiles expire
in 10 years. They also aren't willing to bet that the regime in Tehran
will somehow become more moderate and responsible by then, a hope
entertained by many in the West. 'We prefer a region without nuclear
weapons. But if Iran does it, nothing can prevent us from doing it too,
not even the international community,' said Abdullah al Askar, a member
and former chairman of the foreign affairs committee of Saudi Arabia's
advisory legislature. 'Our leaders will never allow Iran to have a
nuclear weapon while we don't,' added Ibrahim al-Marie, a retired Saudi
colonel and a security analyst in Riyadh. 'If Iran declares a nuclear
weapon, we can't afford to wait 30 years more for our own-we should be
able to declare ours within a week.' Part of the reason for this sense
of urgency is that Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab allies are
increasingly battling mainly Shiite Iran in proxy conflicts across the
region, from Syria to Yemen. Besides their fears of a nuclear Iran
dominating the Middle East one day, they are fretting that the
agreement would dramatically tilt the regional balance of power in
Tehran's favor already in the immediate future, especially once the
removal of international sanctions revitalizes the Iranian economy and
gives it access to more than $100 billion in frozen overseas assets.
They also increasingly distrust the U.S., the traditional guarantor of
Gulf security. 'Our allies aren't listening to us, and this is what is
making us extremely nervous,' said Prince Faisal bin Saud bin
Abdulmohsen, a scholar at the King Faisal Center for Research and
Islamic Studies in the Saudi capital. 'If I am basing my judgment on
the track record and our experience with Iran, I will say they will do
anything in their power to get a nuclear weapon. A delay of 10 years is
not going to satiate anything,' Prince Faisal said... Olli
Heinonen, former deputy director-general and head of the safeguards
department at the International Atomic Energy Agency, estimated that it
takes 10 years to develop enough industrial and technical capacity for
a nuclear weapons program. In the immediate future, Saudi Arabia
wouldn't have to violate its nonproliferation commitments even if it
chooses to pursue that path, said Mr. Heinonen, now a senior fellow at
Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs... Conveniently,
Mr. Heinonen added, Saudi Arabia's neighbor and close ally Jordan sits
on the region's largest uranium reserves: 'Jordan has a lot of uranium
but it has no money to extract it, so I imagine the Saudis can work
together with them.'" http://t.uani.com/1F7D35h
Colonel (ret.)
Richard Kemp & Major (ret.) Chris Driver-Williams in JCPA:
"It appears that the recent framework agreement between the
Islamic Republic of Iran and the P5+1, led by the U.S. Administration,
will result in a deal that would allow Iran to become a nuclear-armed
state. In this context, it is worth recalling the true nature of the
Islamic Republic, in particular its recent track-record of violence
against the United States and its allies. Both authors of this study
had responsibilities for UK national intelligence assessment and crisis
management during the period when this violence reached its peak in
Iraq. Many have forgotten, or perhaps never realized, that Iranian
military action, often working through proxies, usually using terrorist
tactics, has led to the deaths of well over a thousand American
soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last decade and a half. Does
it make sense to risk allowing a regime that, since its inception, has
been conducting a war against the United States and its allies to
become a nuclear power? Anti-Americanism helped fuel the 1979 Islamic
revolution in Iran. A violent anti-American doctrine that challenges
any role for America in the Middle East, has been and remains the
central focus of Iranian foreign policy. Since the revolution, Iran has
waged and continues to wage war against the United States and its
allies. Iran has conducted this war primarily using the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and the Iranian proxy
Lebanese Hizbullah. Both have been engaged in direct military action;
and both have cultivated and supported military action abroad by other
proxies, mainly through the use of terrorist bombings, abductions and
assassinations. The killing of U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan
serves a strategic goal (see later section 'Killing Americans and
Allies Globally'). However, Iranian violence has often been intended
not to achieve any specific tactical or strategic objective, but simply
to hurt the U.S. Most of these actions have been designed to be
deniable, or at least unprovable. Focusing primarily on events since
2001, this study will survey Iran's war against the U.S. and its
allies, using organs of the Iranian government as well as proxies. The
majority of Tehran's killing of Americans was done in Iraq up until the
U.S. withdrawal in 2011. Some occurred in Afghanistan until more
recently, and likely continues today against America's Afghan allies,
and may again occur against U.S. forces that remain there. The current
curtailment of this activity has not been due to a change of stance by
Iran, but to the redeployment of U.S. and allied forces. Depending on
future U.S. action in Iraq and Syria, it is quite likely that Iran will
again orchestrate attacks against American troops, even as they are
fighting the same enemy (the Islamic State). Those who have seized upon
President Hassan Rouhani as a 'moderate' with whom business can be done
by the West should exercise caution. He was 'elected' president because
that was the will of the Supreme Leader, Ali Hosseini Khamanei. The
Supreme Leader controls the president and is head of the armed forces,
responsible for national defense. An indication of Rouhani's
'moderation,' and his own stance towards the U.S., occurred early on
when he appointed Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan to be minister of
defense. Dehghan played a key role in the October 1983 suicide bomb
attacks in Beirut in which 241 U.S. Marines and 58 French paratroopers
were killed. Meanwhile, inside Iran, Rouhani has presided over a rise
in repression, including executions, torture of political prisoners and
persecution of minorities, according to an analysis published by human
rights groups including Amnesty International." http://t.uani.com/1RgvpbZ
N. Mozes in
MEMRI: "As the fighting in Syria enters the fifth
year, it is evident to all that what is happening is not a local civil
rebellion against a tyrannical regime, but a war in which both the
Syrian regime and the Syrian opposition are being actively supported by
numerous regional and international forces. The most prominent foreign
element involved in this war is Iran, which is throwing its entire
weight into ensuring the survival of the regime. In addition to
providing economic aid, arms, and advice, its support for Syrian
President Bashar Al-Assad includes combat forces - from Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), from Hizbullah in Lebanon, and from
the Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani Shi'ite militias that are loyal to
Iran. Initially, these organizations focused on defending Shi'ite holy
sites in Syria, but over time the fighting expanded to the most
difficult anti-opposition fronts, in Al-Qusayr, Al-Qalamoun and the
Daraa-Quneitra-Damascus triangle. According to the Syrian opposition,
thousands of fighters trained by the IRGC arrived in Syria via the
Iranian air bridge comprising on average four daily flights from Iran
to the Syrian port of Latakia, via Iraq. Recently, Iran has begun to
organize and oversee Syrian forces fighting alongside the regime, such
as the Syrian Hizbullah, Liwa Al-Quds, the National Religious
Resistance-Jaish Al-Imam Al-Mahdi, the National Resistance in Houran
(HAMO), and Liwa Al-Ridda Al-Shi'i. This Iranian involvement has both
short- and long-term ramifications. In the short term, it impacts the
fighting between the regime and the opposition. For example, three
years ago, when the regime was on the verge of defeat on a number of
fronts, Iran sent forces from Lebanese Hizbullah and other Shi'ite
militias to its aid, thus completely upsetting the balance of forces on
the ground, though this has not yet led to a decisive regime victory.
National Coalition for Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces chairman
Khaled Khoja argues that these forces are the only thing ensuring the
Syrian regime's survival, and that today the regime is completely
reliant on them since its army has been dramatically depleted, and is
only about 70,000 strong. Even if this figure is inaccurate, it can
surely be said that without these forces, the regime's military situation
would be far graver. In the long term, these Shi'ite reinforcements
have further strengthened the sectarian aspect of the conflict in
Syria, with the consent of the Syrian regime, if not its outright
encouragement. They have played a role in spurring the Sunni fighters
thronging to join the jihad organizations fighting the Shi'ites, and
have also contributed to the Syria crisis' expansion beyond the
country's borders. These Shi'ite militias have also impacted Syria's
independence vis-à-vis Iran. Both Syrian opposition members and the
Arab anti-Iran camp are already arguing that Iran is occupying Syria
and doing whatever it likes there. Khaled Khoja has said that Assad is
no longer Syria's leader but is now only its 'executive director.'
Nahed Hattar, a columnist for the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, which is
close to the Syrian regime, wrote that this regime had mortgaged
government lands and real estate to pay for military and economic
assistance from Iran. This, he said, begs the question to what extent
Syria will remain sovereign if the regime cannot pay back its debt to
Iran. Syria's transformation into an Iranian base also upsets the
balance of forces in the entire region, and threatens Syria's neighbors
to the south and north. The January 2015 killing of Hizbullah fighters
and of IRGC Qods Force fighters, among them Gen. Mohammed Ali
Allahdadi, revealed the extent of Iranian and Hizbullah activity on the
Syrian Golan bordering Israel and Jordan. Likewise, some of the
Iran-operated Syrian so-called 'popular resistance groups,' such as the
Syrian Hizbullah, stress that their aim is to operate against Israel,
not only against the Syrian opposition. Iran also appears to be using
Syria as an intelligence base for espionage and as an arena for
training the foreign forces that are loyal to it. This became clearly
evident after opposition forces overran the Syrian Tal Al-Harrah
intelligence base in the Quneitra area and found there numerous
Hizbullah intelligence documents showing the organization's activity in
and plans for the Golan." http://t.uani.com/1IRIXqW
Christopher
Coughlin & Andrea Stricker in ISIS: "On April
16, 2015, the United States District Court in the Southern District of
Texas indicted five individuals and four companies on 24 counts related
to illegally exporting sensitive military microelectronics and power
supplies to Iran. The defendants, including the individuals
Bahram Mechanic, Khosrow Afghahi, Tooraj Faridi (all three described as
'United States persons'), Arthur Shyu, Matin Sadeghi, and the companies
Faratel Co., Smart Power Systems Inc., Hosoda Taiwan Limited, and
Golsad Istanbul Trading Ltd., are charged with violating the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act by 'exporting high-tech
microelectronics, uninterruptible power supplies and other commodities
to Iran.' These technologies had uses in 'military purposes,
including surface-to-air missiles and backup power sources for military
or nuclear energy systems.' The defendants are also charged with money
laundering, conspiracy, and related offenses. They allegedly used
multiple foreign financial transactions to launder Iranian payments for
the goods. This alleged illicit procurement network is estimated to
have 'obtained at least approximately 28 million parts valued at approximately
$24 million from companies worldwide and shipped these commodities to
Iran...' The indictment alleges that the defendants illicitly
provided these technologies to 'both commercial entities and Iranian
Government agencies, such as the Iranian Ministry of Defense, the
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and the Iranian Centrifuge
Technology Company (TESA).' U.S. sanctions prohibit unauthorized
dual-use military sales to these Iranian entities. Mechanic,
Faridi, and Afghani will stand trial for their alleged offenses.
Defendants Sadeghi and Shyu continue to reside in Turkey and
Taiwan." http://t.uani.com/1FRC9sq
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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