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WSJ:
"Saudi Arabia's monarch pulled out of a summit to be hosted by
President Barack Obama on Thursday, in a blow to the White House's
efforts to build Arab support for a nuclear accord with Iran. King
Salman's decision appeared to ripple across the Persian Gulf. Bahrain
said on Sunday that its ruler, King Hamad bin Isaa Al Khalifa, had opted
not to travel to Washington. The only two monarchs from the six countries
confirmed to attend the summit at the White House and the presidential
retreat at Camp David, Md., were the emirs of Qatar and Kuwait. At stake
for the White House is Mr. Obama's key foreign-policy initiative, an Iran
pact that is proceeding toward a June 30 deadline without support from
regional powers. King Salman's decision signals that the Arab states
aren't on board and could continue to act on their own to thwart Tehran,
as Saudi Arabia has done in leading a military coalition against
Iran-backed rebels in Yemen. Senior Arab officials involved in organizing
the meeting said not enough progress had been made in narrowing
differences with Washington on issues like Iran and Syria to make the
Saudi ruler's trip worth it." http://t.uani.com/1zSFXbJ
Daily Telegraph:
"The Assad regime has placed its intelligence chief under house
arrest after suspecting he was plotting a coup, in a sign that
battlefield losses are setting off increasing paranoia in
Damascus... The role being played in the war by Iran, Syria's
regional ally, is said to be at the heart of the arguments, with some of
the 'inner circle' afraid that Iranian officials now have more power than
they do. Iran's influence has been crucial in bolstering Syria's defences
against the rebels, but even that has been crumbling in the face of
recent rebel advances in the north... Iranian operatives in Syria
are believed to have taken command of large areas of government, from the
central bank to the battle strategy. 'Most of the advisers at the
presidential palace are now Iranian,' said a source close to the palace.
'Mamlouk hated that Syria was giving her sovereignty up to Iran. He
thought there needed to be a change.'" http://t.uani.com/1KACzTf
The Hill:
"Experts aren't sure how long it would take Iran to develop a
nuclear weapon. The timeframe is key to the debate surrounding the
administration's negotiations with Iran and other countries on a nuclear
deal that would place limits on Iran's program in exchange for the
lifting of sanctions... 'How far along is Iran in the weaponization
process?' Rep. Eliot Engel (N.Y.), the ranking Democrat on the House
Foreign Affairs Committee, said at an April hearing. 'If Iran were to
enrich enough fissile material to achieve a 'breakout,' how long would it
then take them to then build a warhead and mate it to missile? We
must have answers to these questions.' The Obama administration has
warned that Iran needs just two or three months of 'breakout time,' or,
time it would take for Iran to have enough fissile material to build a
nuclear weapon. But it would still take more time for Iran to create a
weapon... Experts say they can't assess how close Iran is to actually
completing those steps, without knowing what past research it has done,
and how far it went." http://t.uani.com/1EtlVRN
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Fars (Iran):
"Iranian Supreme Leader's representative at the Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps (IRGC) Ali Saeedi brushed aside any possibility for
inspection of the country's military sites. 'There is no possibility for
the inspection of military centers,' Saeedi said in an interview with
Afkarnews website on Saturday. He underlined that inspections will be
limited to those Iranian provinces in which a part of the country's
nuclear fuel production cycle exists. 'If they want to put their nose
into other places within the framework of inspections, it will be against
our national interests and security, and neither the Supreme Leader nor
the parliament will allow this to happen,' Saeedi said." http://t.uani.com/1dXd4Bt
Congressional
Action
The Hill:
"The warning from Democrats to Republican leaders about undermining
President Obama's Iran diplomacy has split party leaders. One hundred and
fifty House Democrats wrote a letter to Obama Thursday urging him to
exhaust all diplomatic avenues to a nuclear deal before pursuing tougher
options like sanctions - a strong indication that Democrats are ready to
block any Republican effort rejecting such an agreement. But while top
leaders like Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and
Xavier Becerra (Calif.) endorsed the May 7 letter, Reps. Steny Hoyer
(Md.), the minority whip, and Joe Crowley (N.Y.), vice chairman of the
Democratic Caucus, did not... Some liberal groups, which have lobbied
hard for the diplomatic approach, are accusing the Democratic holdouts of
siding with defense hawks 'who want to rush to war,' in the words of Nick
Berning, spokesman for MoveOn." http://t.uani.com/1H9L07K
Sanctions
Relief
Trend:
"Trade official says a new dawn is beginning for Iran, especially in
the economic sector, as hopes are high that international sanctions on
the Islamic Republic are going to be removed. 'It is the first time in a
long time there's hope,' David Stephen, head of the Oil and Gas Offshore
Division of Iran Europe industrial and trading group told Trend May 7 on
the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show 2015 in Tehran. 'Iran is the future
for many foreign companies,' said Stephen who is responsible for bringing
many European companies to Iran for market exploration in the past 25
years... The German safety equipment company Kito is one of the companies
Stephen has led to Iran. We were in Iran last November holding talks with
the NIOC (National Iranian Oil Company) and the Iranian sides were very
interested in our products, Kito General Manager Joachim Romeick told
Trend." http://t.uani.com/1bKgc1T
Yemen Crisis
AFP:
"Thousands of people demonstrated Friday in Tehran to denounce
Saudi-led air strikes on Shiite rebels in Yemen, where Iran is accused of
meddling by Saudi Arabia. The protests came as Iran rejected anew Saudi
claims it was interfering in Yemen by backing the Huthi rebels, and
accused Riyadh of seeking to absolve itself of responsibility in the war.
Protesters thronged the city centre chanting 'Death to America', 'Death
to Israel' and 'Death to the Saudi (royal) family', according to footage
shown on state television. They also denounced US support for the
military operations, the report said. Some protesters carried placards
that read: 'From Gaza to Yemen, stop killing children', and state
television described the protest as 'massive'. An effigy of King Salman
of Saudi Arabia holding an American flag in one hand and an Israeli one
in the other was also displayed at the rally." http://t.uani.com/1GYPkUF
Domestic
Politics
AFP:
"The Internet and the proliferation of satellite technology mean
Iran can no longer control foreign news and television broadcasts, the
country's culture minister said on Sunday, urging a new approach. In
remarks that signal the government's intention to open Iran up to the
world, Ali Jannati told police commanders that new delivery systems
ignore borders, making censorship measures redundant. 'In the past,
through pressuring the media or guiding the information, we could direct
public news and take control of it,' state media quoted him as saying.
'But today the scene has changed dramatically. Controlling the media is
no longer possible technically or geographically.'" http://t.uani.com/1PBUeeO
RFE/RL:
"A group of 700 Iranian university teachers have sent a letter to
the government calling for an end to what they say is 'unprecedented
interference' in the internal affairs of universities. The Islamic
Association of University Teachers of Iran said the signatories addressed
the three branches of government to stop 'extralegal' pressure on Iranian
universities, the semiofficial ISNA news agency reported on May 10. The
signatories called on the government to use all its power to 'protect the
integrity and independence of universities.' They said the current
situation had created 'disappointment, frustration, and a feeling of insecurity'
among university students and teachers. The signatories called on
President Hassan Rohani, Judiciary chief Sedaq Amoli, and parliament
speaker Ali Larijani to 'guarantee the prevention of extralegal and
inappropriate pressures' on universities." http://t.uani.com/1bK9CbJ
Reuters:
"Iran has bought 15 second-hand civilian aircraft in the last three
months, the transport minister said in published remarks, bolstering an
aging fleet hit by U.S. sanctions that restrict trade of aircraft and
parts. ISNA news agency on Sunday quoted Abbas Akhoondi as saying nine of
the planes had been obtained in the past week, without specifying who had
sold them or how they had been bought. 'With the arrival of these new
aircraft, the average age of the active planes in Iran has fallen from 20
years to 19 years,' Akhoondi was quoted as saying. The report did not
identify the type of aircraft purchased." http://t.uani.com/1cIztCd
Foreign Affairs
WashPost:
"The United States, in what may be among the first negotiated deals
with Iran since relations broke off in 1980, is allowing the Iranian
Interests Section in Washington to move to new headquarters on 23rd
Street Northwest in West End. In exchange, Switzerland, which had been
looking for new space for the U.S. Interests Section in Tehran - because
the current offices, we were told, were 'no longer viable and pretty
decrepit' - will be getting new offices as well for the U.S. facility.
'Reciprocity is the hallmark of diplomacy,' one source told us. 'This was
a swap.' ... We asked whether the deal indicated a thaw in relations and
was related to negotiations over Iran's nuclear programs. A State
Department official, in an e-mail reply Thursday, said 'there is no
connection that we are aware of between this long-planned relocation and
the ongoing . . . negotiations to address the international community's
concerns over Iran's nuclear program.'" http://t.uani.com/1cpoHQK
Opinion &
Analysis
Ray Takeyh in FT:
"The credibility of any nuclear agreement between the US and Iran
depends on the type of Islamic Republic that emerges after its sunset
clause expires. Those favouring the accord hint that a more benign Iran
is inevitable. But hopes of Iranian moderation are likely to evaporate in
the paradoxes of clerical politics. The most likely outcome is not just a
more hawkish theocracy, but one in command of an industrial-size nuclear
infrastructure. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's natural affinities are with the
reactionary elements of his regime. As the supreme leader contemplates
who will replace him, he will need to safeguard not just his republic but
also its revolutionary values. For Mr Khamenei and his cohort, the
Islamic Republic is the custodian of a mandate from heaven. This is a
revolution without borders. He is not interested in a prosperous state
that has forfeited its ideological claims... As an astute student of
history, Mr Khamenei has carefully assessed the collapse of communist
satraps in eastern Europe, and how prolonged financial stress undermined
the foundations of those Soviet republics. The regime needed an arms
control agreement: one that preserved its nuclear apparatus while doing
away with the most crushing sanctions. As far as intrusive monitoring is
concerned, the supreme leader insists: 'One must absolutely not allow
infiltration of the security and defence realm of the state under the
pretext of inspections.' For now, moderates such as President Hassan
Rouhani and his aides serve Mr Khamenei's purpose. They are the
attractive face of the Islamic Republic, pragmatic and reasonable. But
they are in power to transact an arms control agreement, and their
utility will diminish once an accord is reached. The supreme leader must
have known that his hardliners were unsuitable interlocutors for western
powers. Once a deal is reached, however, Mr Khamenei will need the help
of the hardliners to protect his republic. An agreement is likely to
presage, not an age of moderation, but rather a sharp retrograde shift in
Iran's domestic politics... The success of an agreement hinges on whether
it can permanently arrest the proliferation of dangerous technologies,
inject a measure of responsibility into leaders whose behaviour has often
been impetuous, and empower those forces within Iran that wish to open
their country to the world. There is no indication that the deal in
question will achieve any of this. An agreement whose duration is
time-limited and sets the stage for industrialisation of Iran's
enrichment capacity places Tehran inches away from the bomb. And,
paradoxically, such a state may yet be governed by hardline actors
nursing hegemonic designs." http://t.uani.com/1F2162w
Eli Lake in
Bloomberg: "Leaders from six Gulf Arab nations will
assemble at Camp David this week to ask Barack Obama for security
guarantees against Iran. It's an awkward moment for the members of the
Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC. They are seeking commitments from a man
whose signature foreign policy achievement would allow Iran to keep much
of the nuclear infrastructure Obama once promised to roll back. But here
we are. Traditionally, the way a great power protects its friends from a
regional bully is through deterrence. It goes like this: The U.S. makes
it clear that picking a fight with Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates or
Saudi Arabia is the equivalent of picking a fight with America. Yosef
Otaiba, the ambassador to the U.S. from the United Arab Emirates, told
the Atlantic Council last week the GCC will be seeking 'something in writing,'
and a more formal version of what he said was a 'gentleman's agreement'
to protect the security of the Gulf states. On Friday, after
meeting with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister in Paris, Kerry said, 'we
are fleshing out a series of new commitments that will create, between
the United States and the GCC, a new security understanding, a new set of
security initiatives, that will take us beyond anything that we have had
before in ways that will ask our partners to work with us, and they will
contribute and we will contribute.' ... Obama needs the Saudis --
including King Salman, who decided on Sunday to skip the summit --
to trust that he has their back. But that's easier said than done. Obama
has less than 18 months left in his presidency and he is making the kind
of long-term deals with Iran and Saudi Arabia that will last well after
he is out of office... All of this brings to mind a favorite maxim of
Israel's former prime minister, Menachem Begin. During Camp David peace
talks that led to Israel's withdrawal from the Sinai, Begin was offered
U.S. security guarantees in exchange for territorial concessions. Begin
mused: 'In the whole world there is no guarantee that can guarantee a
guarantee.' America's Gulf allies are about to find out if Begin was right."
http://t.uani.com/1E22oXk
Claudia Rosett in
Forbes: "Officially, the Obama administration
remains committed to enforcing sanctions on Iran's main merchant shipping
fleet, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, also known as IRISL.
But in practice, since the Iran nuclear talks began early last year, many
of IRISL's cargo ships appear to be operating ever more freely, with
fading protest from Washington... U.S. sanctions on IRISL were not
frivolously imposed. Back in 2008, when the U.S. added IRISL, a number of
its affiliated entities and well over 100 of its cargo ships to
Treasury's blacklist of Specially Designated Nationals (also known as the
SDN list), Treasury in a press release alleged that IRISL was involved in
illicit commerce, including 'military-related cargo' and the provision of
services to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. IRISL
responded to sanctions, according to an Oct. 27, 2011 Treasury press
release, not by changing its conduct, but by trying to change its identity.
In that same 2011 press release, Treasury described its global efforts to
shut down IRISL's traffic, stating 'Wherever IRISL has gone, we have
tracked and exposed them.' Treasury stressed that the U.S., with the
cooperation of the international community, was succeeding in 'imposing a
widening array of powerful sanctions against this dangerous carrier.'
Warning that 'IRISL's day's may be numbered,' Treasury titled this press
release: 'No Safe Port for IRISL.' To visible effect, globetrotting
Treasury officials were then working overtime to persuade other nations
to shun IRISL, warning of IRISL's 'deceptive practices,' including
'fabricated vessel registration and flag credentials.' IRISL was hard at
work trying to camouflage its blacklisted ships behind a welter of
foreign flags, new names and networks of overseas front companies. To
identify the vessels required a focus on their unique seven-digit hull
numbers, or IMO numbers, issued under authority of the International
Maritime Organization for the life of each ship (which is the basis on
which ships are identified in this article). By 2012, IRISL's blacklisted
fleet appeared confined largely to the Middle and Far East. IRISL's
once-frequent port calls to Europe and Latin America - including Mexico
and Venezuela - had almost entirely dried up. That trend is now
reversing. While Iran's main tanker fleet, NITC (formerly the National
Iranian Tanker Company) continues to veil the Iranian identities of its
U.S.-blacklisted carriers, IRISL over the past two years or so has
reflagged the great majority of its blacklisted vessels back to Iran.
Filtering out IRISL vessels which since their U.S. designations appear to
have been scrapped, there are currently at least 117 IRISL vessels on the
U.S. blacklist. Of these, 112 now show on Lloyd's database as flagged to
Iran. Among these Iran-flagged IRISL ships is the Azargoun, which with
its recent visit to Venezuela has now underscored that for IRISL the
Western hemisphere is no longer taboo... By 2013, having acquired its current
name and been reflagged back to Iran, the Azargoun was one of four
blacklisted IRISL vessels which a New York-based watchdog group, United
Against Nuclear Iran, alleged had been involved in 'illicit ship-to-ship
transfers in the Red Sea, potentially transferring weapons, bullion or
personnel between vessels.' In comments that June to The New York Times,
an official at Iran's Mission to the United Nations dismissed UANI's
allegations as 'counterproductive,' saying that Iran considered UANI's
activities 'contrary' to the Obama administration's policy 'which
purportedly sought to interact diplomatically with Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1F22z8Z
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