Monday, May 11, 2015

Eye on Iran: Rulers Snub Arab Summit, Clouding U.S. Bid for Iran Deal






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WSJ: "Saudi Arabia's monarch pulled out of a summit to be hosted by President Barack Obama on Thursday, in a blow to the White House's efforts to build Arab support for a nuclear accord with Iran. King Salman's decision appeared to ripple across the Persian Gulf. Bahrain said on Sunday that its ruler, King Hamad bin Isaa Al Khalifa, had opted not to travel to Washington. The only two monarchs from the six countries confirmed to attend the summit at the White House and the presidential retreat at Camp David, Md., were the emirs of Qatar and Kuwait. At stake for the White House is Mr. Obama's key foreign-policy initiative, an Iran pact that is proceeding toward a June 30 deadline without support from regional powers. King Salman's decision signals that the Arab states aren't on board and could continue to act on their own to thwart Tehran, as Saudi Arabia has done in leading a military coalition against Iran-backed rebels in Yemen. Senior Arab officials involved in organizing the meeting said not enough progress had been made in narrowing differences with Washington on issues like Iran and Syria to make the Saudi ruler's trip worth it." http://t.uani.com/1zSFXbJ

Daily Telegraph: "The Assad regime has placed its intelligence chief under house arrest after suspecting he was plotting a coup, in a sign that battlefield losses are setting off increasing paranoia in Damascus...  The role being played in the war by Iran, Syria's regional ally, is said to be at the heart of the arguments, with some of the 'inner circle' afraid that Iranian officials now have more power than they do. Iran's influence has been crucial in bolstering Syria's defences against the rebels, but even that has been crumbling in the face of recent rebel advances in the north...  Iranian operatives in Syria are believed to have taken command of large areas of government, from the central bank to the battle strategy. 'Most of the advisers at the presidential palace are now Iranian,' said a source close to the palace. 'Mamlouk hated that Syria was giving her sovereignty up to Iran. He thought there needed to be a change.'" http://t.uani.com/1KACzTf

The Hill: "Experts aren't sure how long it would take Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. The timeframe is key to the debate surrounding the administration's negotiations with Iran and other countries on a nuclear deal that would place limits on Iran's program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions... 'How far along is Iran in the weaponization process?' Rep. Eliot Engel (N.Y.), the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said at an April hearing. 'If Iran were to enrich enough fissile material to achieve a 'breakout,' how long would it then take them to then build a warhead and mate it to missile?  We must have answers to these questions.' The Obama administration has warned that Iran needs just two or three months of 'breakout time,' or, time it would take for Iran to have enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon. But it would still take more time for Iran to create a weapon... Experts say they can't assess how close Iran is to actually completing those steps, without knowing what past research it has done, and how far it went." http://t.uani.com/1EtlVRN

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Fars (Iran): "Iranian Supreme Leader's representative at the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ali Saeedi brushed aside any possibility for inspection of the country's military sites. 'There is no possibility for the inspection of military centers,' Saeedi said in an interview with Afkarnews website on Saturday. He underlined that inspections will be limited to those Iranian provinces in which a part of the country's nuclear fuel production cycle exists. 'If they want to put their nose into other places within the framework of inspections, it will be against our national interests and security, and neither the Supreme Leader nor the parliament will allow this to happen,' Saeedi said." http://t.uani.com/1dXd4Bt

Congressional Action

The Hill: "The warning from Democrats to Republican leaders about undermining President Obama's Iran diplomacy has split party leaders. One hundred and fifty House Democrats wrote a letter to Obama Thursday urging him to exhaust all diplomatic avenues to a nuclear deal before pursuing tougher options like sanctions - a strong indication that Democrats are ready to block any Republican effort rejecting such an agreement. But while top leaders like Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Xavier Becerra (Calif.) endorsed the May 7 letter, Reps. Steny Hoyer (Md.), the minority whip, and Joe Crowley (N.Y.), vice chairman of the Democratic Caucus, did not... Some liberal groups, which have lobbied hard for the diplomatic approach, are accusing the Democratic holdouts of siding with defense hawks 'who want to rush to war,' in the words of Nick Berning, spokesman for MoveOn." http://t.uani.com/1H9L07K

Sanctions Relief

Trend: "Trade official says a new dawn is beginning for Iran, especially in the economic sector, as hopes are high that international sanctions on the Islamic Republic are going to be removed. 'It is the first time in a long time there's hope,' David Stephen, head of the Oil and Gas Offshore Division of Iran Europe industrial and trading group told Trend May 7 on the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show 2015 in Tehran. 'Iran is the future for many foreign companies,' said Stephen who is responsible for bringing many European companies to Iran for market exploration in the past 25 years... The German safety equipment company Kito is one of the companies Stephen has led to Iran. We were in Iran last November holding talks with the NIOC (National Iranian Oil Company) and the Iranian sides were very interested in our products, Kito General Manager Joachim Romeick told Trend." http://t.uani.com/1bKgc1T

Yemen Crisis

AFP: "Thousands of people demonstrated Friday in Tehran to denounce Saudi-led air strikes on Shiite rebels in Yemen, where Iran is accused of meddling by Saudi Arabia. The protests came as Iran rejected anew Saudi claims it was interfering in Yemen by backing the Huthi rebels, and accused Riyadh of seeking to absolve itself of responsibility in the war. Protesters thronged the city centre chanting 'Death to America', 'Death to Israel' and 'Death to the Saudi (royal) family', according to footage shown on state television. They also denounced US support for the military operations, the report said. Some protesters carried placards that read: 'From Gaza to Yemen, stop killing children', and state television described the protest as 'massive'. An effigy of King Salman of Saudi Arabia holding an American flag in one hand and an Israeli one in the other was also displayed at the rally." http://t.uani.com/1GYPkUF

Domestic Politics

AFP: "The Internet and the proliferation of satellite technology mean Iran can no longer control foreign news and television broadcasts, the country's culture minister said on Sunday, urging a new approach. In remarks that signal the government's intention to open Iran up to the world, Ali Jannati told police commanders that new delivery systems ignore borders, making censorship measures redundant. 'In the past, through pressuring the media or guiding the information, we could direct public news and take control of it,' state media quoted him as saying. 'But today the scene has changed dramatically. Controlling the media is no longer possible technically or geographically.'" http://t.uani.com/1PBUeeO

RFE/RL: "A group of 700 Iranian university teachers have sent a letter to the government calling for an end to what they say is 'unprecedented interference' in the internal affairs of universities. The Islamic Association of University Teachers of Iran said the signatories addressed the three branches of government to stop 'extralegal' pressure on Iranian universities, the semiofficial ISNA news agency reported on May 10. The signatories called on the government to use all its power to 'protect the integrity and independence of universities.' They said the current situation had created 'disappointment, frustration, and a feeling of insecurity' among university students and teachers. The signatories called on President Hassan Rohani, Judiciary chief Sedaq Amoli, and parliament speaker Ali Larijani to 'guarantee the prevention of extralegal and inappropriate pressures' on universities." http://t.uani.com/1bK9CbJ

Reuters: "Iran has bought 15 second-hand civilian aircraft in the last three months, the transport minister said in published remarks, bolstering an aging fleet hit by U.S. sanctions that restrict trade of aircraft and parts. ISNA news agency on Sunday quoted Abbas Akhoondi as saying nine of the planes had been obtained in the past week, without specifying who had sold them or how they had been bought. 'With the arrival of these new aircraft, the average age of the active planes in Iran has fallen from 20 years to 19 years,' Akhoondi was quoted as saying. The report did not identify the type of aircraft purchased." http://t.uani.com/1cIztCd

Foreign Affairs

WashPost: "The United States, in what may be among the first negotiated deals with Iran since relations broke off in 1980, is allowing the Iranian Interests Section in Washington to move to new headquarters on 23rd Street Northwest in West End. In exchange, Switzerland, which had been looking for new space for the U.S. Interests Section in Tehran - because the current offices, we were told, were 'no longer viable and pretty decrepit' - will be getting new offices as well for the U.S. facility. 'Reciprocity is the hallmark of diplomacy,' one source told us. 'This was a swap.' ... We asked whether the deal indicated a thaw in relations and was related to negotiations over Iran's nuclear programs. A State Department official, in an e-mail reply Thursday, said 'there is no connection that we are aware of between this long-planned relocation and the ongoing . . . negotiations to address the international community's concerns over Iran's nuclear program.'" http://t.uani.com/1cpoHQK

Opinion & Analysis

Ray Takeyh in FT: "The credibility of any nuclear agreement between the US and Iran depends on the type of Islamic Republic that emerges after its sunset clause expires. Those favouring the accord hint that a more benign Iran is inevitable. But hopes of Iranian moderation are likely to evaporate in the paradoxes of clerical politics. The most likely outcome is not just a more hawkish theocracy, but one in command of an industrial-size nuclear infrastructure. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's natural affinities are with the reactionary elements of his regime. As the supreme leader contemplates who will replace him, he will need to safeguard not just his republic but also its revolutionary values. For Mr Khamenei and his cohort, the Islamic Republic is the custodian of a mandate from heaven. This is a revolution without borders. He is not interested in a prosperous state that has forfeited its ideological claims... As an astute student of history, Mr Khamenei has carefully assessed the collapse of communist satraps in eastern Europe, and how prolonged financial stress undermined the foundations of those Soviet republics. The regime needed an arms control agreement: one that preserved its nuclear apparatus while doing away with the most crushing sanctions. As far as intrusive monitoring is concerned, the supreme leader insists: 'One must absolutely not allow infiltration of the security and defence realm of the state under the pretext of inspections.' For now, moderates such as President Hassan Rouhani and his aides serve Mr Khamenei's purpose. They are the attractive face of the Islamic Republic, pragmatic and reasonable. But they are in power to transact an arms control agreement, and their utility will diminish once an accord is reached. The supreme leader must have known that his hardliners were unsuitable interlocutors for western powers. Once a deal is reached, however, Mr Khamenei will need the help of the hardliners to protect his republic. An agreement is likely to presage, not an age of moderation, but rather a sharp retrograde shift in Iran's domestic politics... The success of an agreement hinges on whether it can permanently arrest the proliferation of dangerous technologies, inject a measure of responsibility into leaders whose behaviour has often been impetuous, and empower those forces within Iran that wish to open their country to the world. There is no indication that the deal in question will achieve any of this. An agreement whose duration is time-limited and sets the stage for industrialisation of Iran's enrichment capacity places Tehran inches away from the bomb. And, paradoxically, such a state may yet be governed by hardline actors nursing hegemonic designs." http://t.uani.com/1F2162w

Eli Lake in Bloomberg: "Leaders from six Gulf Arab nations will assemble at Camp David this week to ask Barack Obama for security guarantees against Iran. It's an awkward moment for the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC. They are seeking commitments from a man whose signature foreign policy achievement would allow Iran to keep much of the nuclear infrastructure Obama once promised to roll back. But here we are. Traditionally, the way a great power protects its friends from a regional bully is through deterrence. It goes like this: The U.S. makes it clear that picking a fight with Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia is the equivalent of picking a fight with America. Yosef Otaiba, the ambassador to the U.S. from the United Arab Emirates, told the Atlantic Council last week the GCC will be seeking 'something in writing,' and a more formal version of what he said was a 'gentleman's agreement' to protect the security of the Gulf states.  On Friday, after meeting with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister in Paris, Kerry said, 'we are fleshing out a series of new commitments that will create, between the United States and the GCC, a new security understanding, a new set of security initiatives, that will take us beyond anything that we have had before in ways that will ask our partners to work with us, and they will contribute and we will contribute.' ... Obama needs the Saudis -- including King Salman, who decided on Sunday to skip the summit --  to trust that he has their back. But that's easier said than done. Obama has less than 18 months left in his presidency and he is making the kind of long-term deals with Iran and Saudi Arabia that will last well after he is out of office... All of this brings to mind a favorite maxim of Israel's former prime minister, Menachem Begin. During Camp David peace talks that led to Israel's withdrawal from the Sinai, Begin was offered U.S. security guarantees in exchange for territorial concessions. Begin mused: 'In the whole world there is no guarantee that can guarantee a guarantee.' America's Gulf allies are about to find out if Begin was right." http://t.uani.com/1E22oXk

Claudia Rosett in Forbes: "Officially, the Obama administration remains committed to enforcing sanctions on Iran's main merchant shipping fleet, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, also known as IRISL. But in practice, since the Iran nuclear talks began early last year, many of IRISL's cargo ships appear to be operating ever more freely, with fading protest from Washington... U.S. sanctions on IRISL were not frivolously imposed. Back in 2008, when the U.S. added IRISL, a number of its affiliated entities and well over 100 of its cargo ships to Treasury's blacklist of Specially Designated Nationals (also known as the SDN list), Treasury in a press release alleged that IRISL was involved in illicit commerce, including 'military-related cargo' and the provision of services to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. IRISL responded to sanctions, according to an Oct. 27, 2011 Treasury press release, not by changing its conduct, but by trying to change its identity. In that same 2011 press release, Treasury described its global efforts to shut down IRISL's traffic, stating 'Wherever IRISL has gone, we have tracked and exposed them.' Treasury stressed that the U.S., with the cooperation of the international community, was succeeding in 'imposing a widening array of powerful sanctions against this dangerous carrier.' Warning that 'IRISL's day's may be numbered,' Treasury titled this press release: 'No Safe Port for IRISL.' To visible effect, globetrotting Treasury officials were then working overtime to persuade other nations to shun IRISL, warning of IRISL's 'deceptive practices,' including 'fabricated vessel registration and flag credentials.' IRISL was hard at work trying to camouflage its blacklisted ships behind a welter of foreign flags, new names and networks of overseas front companies. To identify the vessels required a focus on their unique seven-digit hull numbers, or IMO numbers, issued under authority of the International Maritime Organization for the life of each ship (which is the basis on which ships are identified in this article). By 2012, IRISL's blacklisted fleet appeared confined largely to the Middle and Far East. IRISL's once-frequent port calls to Europe and Latin America - including Mexico and Venezuela - had almost entirely dried up. That trend is now reversing. While Iran's main tanker fleet, NITC (formerly the National Iranian Tanker Company) continues to veil the Iranian identities of its U.S.-blacklisted carriers, IRISL over the past two years or so has reflagged the great majority of its blacklisted vessels back to Iran. Filtering out IRISL vessels which since their U.S. designations appear to have been scrapped, there are currently at least 117 IRISL vessels on the U.S. blacklist. Of these, 112 now show on Lloyd's database as flagged to Iran. Among these Iran-flagged IRISL ships is the Azargoun, which with its recent visit to Venezuela has now underscored that for IRISL the Western hemisphere is no longer taboo... By 2013, having acquired its current name and been reflagged back to Iran, the Azargoun was one of four blacklisted IRISL vessels which a New York-based watchdog group, United Against Nuclear Iran, alleged had been involved in 'illicit ship-to-ship transfers in the Red Sea, potentially transferring weapons, bullion or personnel between vessels.' In comments that June to The New York Times, an official at Iran's Mission to the United Nations dismissed UANI's allegations as 'counterproductive,' saying that Iran considered UANI's activities 'contrary' to the Obama administration's policy 'which purportedly sought to interact diplomatically with Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1F22z8Z
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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