Thursday, May 14, 2015

Eye on Iran: Saudi Arabia Promises to Match Iran in Nuclear Capability






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NYT: "When President Obama began making the case for a deal with Iran that would delay its ability to assemble an atomic weapon, his first argument was that a nuclear-armed Iran would set off a 'free-for-all' of proliferation in the Arab world. 'It is almost certain that other players in the region would feel it necessary to get their own nuclear weapons,' he said in 2012. Now, as he gathered Arab leaders over dinner at the White House on Wednesday  and prepared to meet with them at Camp David on Thursday, he faced a perverse consequence: Saudi Arabia and many of the smaller Arab states are now vowing to match whatever nuclear enrichment capability Iran is permitted to retain. 'We can't sit back and be nowhere as Iran is allowed to retain much of its capability and amass its research,' one of the Arab leaders preparing to meet Mr. Obama said on Monday, declining to be named until he made his case directly to the president. Prince Turki bin Faisal, the 70-year-old former Saudi intelligence chief, has been touring the world with the same message. 'Whatever the Iranians have, we will have, too,' he said at a recent conference in Seoul, South Korea." http://t.uani.com/1e3cdPW

WSJ: "President Barack Obama kicked off two days of talks aimed at reassuring Arab leaders who are skeptical of his diplomatic outreach to Iran, but his task has grown more difficult in recent days-in part because the White House has been describing its goals with Tehran in loftier terms. Mr. Obama and his top aides are increasingly holding out the possibility of a realignment of power in the Middle East in the wake of an Iran deal. That view feeds Arab fears that Washington is seeking a broader rapprochement with Tehran. 'Their view of Iran's future and the administration's view of Iran's future are very much at odds with each other,' said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in an interview on Wednesday. As part of a two-day summit, Mr. Obama held a White House dinner for Arab officials and leaders Wednesday and planned a day of talks Thursday at the presidential retreat at Camp David, Md. The White House's outreach took a hit last week when both Saudi Arabia's and Bahrain's king said they would skip the Camp David summit... 'Typically when you enter into an agreement like we're contemplating with Iran, it's after there's been behavior change,' said Mr. Corker, who regularly meets with Arab leaders. 'What we're doing in this deal, if it gets consummated, is we're hoping Iran is going to change its behavior sometime over the next decade.'" http://t.uani.com/1EH1fWN

CNN: "Five Iranian boats fired shots across the bow of a Singapore flagged cargo vessel in the Persian Gulf on Thursday in an attempt to potentially stop the ship, a U.S. official told CNN. For the first time, the incident brought another Persian Gulf nation into the recent rising maritime tensions in the region. It is not yet clear if any of the rounds hit the Alpine Eternity... The incident began when five small fast boats, believed to be manned by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy approached the cargo vessel just off the coast of the United Arab Emirates but in international water, the official said... The Iranian boats fired across the bow, and at that point the cargo vessel turned and escaped by entering into UAE territorial waters, according to initial U.S. military reports of the incident... The incident began with the Iranians ordering the ship into Iranian waters. When the ships master refused, the Iranians began to fire in a way to try to disable the ship, not just as warning shots, the U.S. official said. Several shots hit the cargo ship, but did not disable it. The ship went into UAE waters and the Iranians followed it into those territorial waters, continuing to fire, before breaking off." http://t.uani.com/1JgZepC

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Reuters: "The Czech Republic blocked an attempted purchase by Iran this year of a large shipment of sensitive technology useable for nuclear enrichment after false documentation raised suspicions, U.N. experts and Western sources said. The incident could add to Western concerns about whether Tehran can be trusted to adhere to a nuclear deal being negotiated with world powers under which it would curb sensitive nuclear work in exchange for sanctions relief... Some details of the attempted purchase were described in the latest annual report of an expert panel for the United Nations Security Council's Iran sanctions committee, which has been seen by Reuters. The panel said that in January Iran attempted to buy compressors - which have nuclear and non-nuclear applications - made by the U.S.-owned company Howden CKD Compressors. A Czech state official and a Western diplomat familiar with the case confirmed to Reuters that Iran had attempted to buy the shipment from Howden CKD in the Czech Republic, and that Czech authorities had acted to block the deal... The U.N. panel, which monitors compliance with the U.N. sanctions regime, said there had been a 'false end user' stated for the order." http://t.uani.com/1e3d9Uq

Fars (Iran): "Spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Behrouz Kamalvandi criticized the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s Director-General Yukiya Amano for stating his personal interpretations about the Additional Protocol.... Kamalvandi described the remarks as the IAEA chief's personal views, and said, 'Mr. Amano hasn't assigned any responsibility for Iran but he has presented his own interpretation of the Additional Protocol and of course, we have some considerations about it.' He referred to certain points about the Additional Protocol, and said firstly, Iran has not yet implemented or approved the Additional Protocol; secondly none of the articles of the Additional Protocol necessitate the signatory to provide access to military sites; and third, access to the places demanded by the IAEA needs evidence and proof as well as the Agency's respect for different considerations of the member states, including the security considerations. Therefore, if a country rejects providing access to a certain site for any reason, access to the adjacent sites or using other methods accepted by both sides will be considered, Kamalvandi stressed." http://t.uani.com/1A30pqp

Bloomberg: "The Obama administration is trying to sell a nuclear deal with Iran to skeptical Arabs, Israelis and U.S. lawmakers by saying that United Nations sanctions will be restored automatically if the Iranians are caught cheating. Not so, say the Russians, who have one of five vetoes in the 15-member UN Security Council. 'There can be no automaticity, none whatsoever' in reimposing UN sanctions if Iran violates the terms of an agreement to curb its nuclear program, Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told Bloomberg News on Wednesday. He didn't elaborate." http://t.uani.com/1H5eMI6

Press TV (Iran): "The case over Tehran's nuclear program must referred back to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a final nuclear deal between Tehran and six world powers cannot be implemented, says an Iranian official. 'Iran's issue must be raised at the IAEA as an ordinary case or else it would be impossible to implement an agreement,' Iran's Ambassador to the IAEA Reza Najafi said in at an exclusive interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network late on Wednesday. He added, 'The IAEA's announcement that there are no undeclared [nuclear] sites or activities in Iran relates to the implementation of the Additional Protocol - something which is time-consuming.' 'This issue, given the volume and type of [nuclear] facilities, has taken several years in other countries.'" http://t.uani.com/1QMmcae

Congressional Action

The Hill: "The House will vote Thursday on legislation allowing Congress to review any deal with Iran on its nuclear program. Thursday's vote will come a week after the Senate passed the measure by a vote of 98-1. The White House has signaled it would sign the legislation in its current form. House GOP leaders are moving the bill to the floor under a fast-track procedure that prohibits amendments and requires a two-thirds majority for passage. The decision not to allow amendments came despite urging from the conservative House Freedom Caucus to vote on proposals such as requiring Iran to recognize Israel's right to exist." http://t.uani.com/1IAlPOP

Politico: "The House will vote on legislation this week to toughen sanctions against Hezbollah - a move designed to appease conservative lawmakers who've been prevented from amending an upcoming Iran bill. Members of the House Freedom Caucus wanted to offer a series of changes to a measure giving Congress the authority to review and potentially reject any nuclear non-proliferation deal with Iran. But GOP leaders decided to bar any amendments to the Iran bill because they could have unraveled the bipartisan coalition supporting the measure. A GOP leadership aide said that instead of voting on the amendments, the House will vote on a bill passed by the last Congress giving the Treasury Department 90 days to toughen sanctions against any U.S. financial institution that aides the terrorist group Hezbollah or its media arm. The legislation was previously introduced by Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), a founding member of the Freedom Caucus." http://t.uani.com/1KNjmxH

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Major banks wary of heavy U.S. penalties will be reluctant to restore ties with Iran even if sanctions are lifted in a possible nuclear deal, bank executives and advisers say, likely denting Iran's ambition to attract foreign investment to revive its crippled economy. After years of being frozen out of the global banking system and most trade with the West, Iran is eager for sanctions to be lifted so it can draw in foreign companies and attract investment to upgrade its long-neglected energy sector. Yet without more bank financing and a means of transferring funds in and out of Iran, that commercial potential could remain largely untapped, stunting hopes for a post-agreement investment boom. Banks' reluctance to deal with Iran highlights the risk that its economy will not get quick relief, possibly eroding support for the nuclear deal among Tehran's leadership... About a dozen international banks, mostly European, have been stung by U.S. penalties for sanctions-busting totaling nearly $14 billion since 2009, raising industry fears that the risk of engaging Iran would overshadow any gain... 'Given all the anti-money laundering issues, anyone who thinks they can go into Iran has got to be insane,' an executive with a major U.S. bank said, asking not to be identified given the sensitivity of the topic. 'There's just not enough business in Iran' to risk one payment causing a massive penalty, the executive added." http://t.uani.com/1EGLZsY

FT: "Iranian president Hassan Rouhani's economic team has started planning for a post-sanctions environment as officials look to rescue the battered economy from years of stagnation and mismanagement. In a rare interview with the Financial Times, Valiolah Seif, the central bank governor appointed by Mr Rouhani, said the government was mapping out strategies to channel funds and accelerate development of key sectors, including oil and gas, tourism and IT." http://t.uani.com/1EHFpBq

Yemen Crisis

Reuters: "A senior Iranian official branded Saudi Arabia's King Salman a traitor to Islam on Thursday and equated the Gulf state's military assault on Iranian-allied fighters in Yemen with Israeli actions against Palestinians. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of Iran's national security and foreign policy committee, was speaking a day after Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the kingdom of 'crimes' and the deputy head of Iran's military warned Riyadh of 'war' if it attacked an Iran aid ship heading toward Yemen... Speaking in Damascus, Boroujerdi, said 'God would take revenge' against the Saudi monarch for serving what he called U.S.-Israeli interests in the war against the Houthi rebels. 'He should be called the traitor of the noble Haramayn and the Islamic nation and against all the teachings they are killing children in Yemen with American weapons and replicating the crimes of the Zionist entity,' he said. Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and home of its holiest sites in Mecca and Medina - referred to in Arabic as the Haramayn." http://t.uani.com/1cXAuqm

Reuters: "Yemen warned on Wednesday that if Iran does not allow a cargo ship bound for the Arabian Peninsula with a military escort to be searched, then Tehran 'bears complete responsibility for any incident that arises from their attempt to enter Yemeni waters.' Iran said earlier on Wednesday it would not allow Saudi Arabia-led coalition forces to inspect the ship, which it says is carrying humanitarian aid. The ship left Iran on Monday under escort by Iranian warships. Yemen's warning came in a letter, seen by Reuters, from its U.N. mission to the United Nations Security Council. 'The Yemeni government and the coalition forces do not object to aid shipments entering Yemen as long as they obtain the necessary permits from the legitimate government of Yemen and are searched prior to entry,' the letter said." http://t.uani.com/1FmEZHc

Human Rights

IHR: "During the past four days at least 10 people have been executed in Iran, according to the official Iranian sources. One of those executed was a woman convicted of drug related charges." http://t.uani.com/1cA8ecq

Foreign Affairs

AP: "Al-Shabab militants kidnapped 14 crew members of an Iranian fishing boat Wednesday off the coast of Somalia, seizing them as their vessel washed ashore, Iranian state television and residents said. The extremists detained the fishermen after the vessel drifted into the militants' stronghold, Yasin Maalin, a resident of the town of El-Dher in Somalia's coastal region of Galgadud, told The Associated Press by telephone. Ali Hussein, another resident, corroborated his account. Al-Shabab, a militant group that is allied with al-Qaida and has carried out many deadly attacks across Somalia, did not immediately claim the kidnapping." http://t.uani.com/1FmFHUT

JPost: "Netanyahu quoted a senior Iranian official who was cited in Iranian media on Wednesday as saying that Tehran has God's permission to liquidate Israel. The 'government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has divine permission to destroy Israel,' Mojtaba Zolnour, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's deputy representative to the Revolutionary Guards, said. 'The Noble Koran permits the Islamic Republic of Iran to destroy Israel.'" http://t.uani.com/1K8bmdP

Opinion & Analysis

Jennifer Rubin in WashPost: "So now the challenge to clear-eyed opponents of the deal is to block President Obama from making (or get a veto-proof majority of Democrats and Republicans to nix it after the fact) a sweetheart deal on nukes with the vague hope it will curb Iran's regional aggression. The follow-up to the Corker-Menendez victory in the Senate should be prompt and multi-pronged. It cannot be merely oversight hearings or new legislation or an united front in the pro-Israel community or a public education campaign - it must be all those things. The challenge is to make the argument as succinct and persuasive as possible so that the administration, upon presenting the deal to the world, will not overstate what it has accomplished, betting that non-physicists will not bother to wade through the fine print that surely will give Iran as much running room as it needs to keep its nuclear ambitions alive. Three arguments should be paramount: First, Iran has a history of lying, cheating and behavior that does not comport with the rules of civilized nations (see Dempsey's list). Such a country can't be left with its nuclear infrastructure intact. If Iran keeps Fordow, thousands of centrifuges and fissile material (that can be re-enriched in days), we cannot expect that it won't put all the pieces together again. A pro-Israel activist analogizes this to a criminal who gets to keep his gun so long as he keeps the bullets in the basement. Oh, we'll be standing guard. Oh, we will know when he cheats. Really? Second, the level of economic pain and pressure on Iran must increase, not decrease, so long as it is engaged in all the activities Dempsey describes. We have no strategy for dealing with Iran, yet we're going to let its economy revive, let its regime claim a great victory and let any incentive to curb its conduct evaporate. Congress should now pass strangling sanctions - not waivable without a vote from Congress - until all those other activities stop. Democrats will filibuster sanctions to stop Iran from supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and waging proxy wars throughout the region? I think not. Third, to build on the analogy to a criminal left with guns and ammo, the deal would say that the guards outside have to knock on the criminal's door or rely on security cameras that - surprise! - are not tamper-proof to make sure that the gun and bullets are not reunited. In the Iran context, we will see a myriad of restrictions, limits, complications in the text and endless squabbles on the ground about inspections. How do we know? That is what Iran has done for decades and what occurred in Iraq. Verification and detection are illusory, especially since Iran will not be forced to convey the military dimensions of the program. (Oh, in the criminal's case, he doesn't need to tell us about his guns and bullets in other houses.) The case against the impending deal is overwhelming. Now on multiple fronts - with an eye toward the Democrats whose votes will be essential - the case must be made. And it needs to begin now." http://t.uani.com/1HfD3Om
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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