Eye on Iran: Senator Says Sees Iran Nuclear Bill Vote as Soon as Thursday

Join UANI           Top Stories Reuters: "The Republican leader of the U.S. Senate cleared the way on Tuesday for a vote on a bill that would give Congress the power to review an international nuclear agreement with Iran, ending debate over efforts to use the measure to impose more conditions on Tehran. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he had filed a 'cloture' motion to begin the process of formally ending debate. Both Democrats and Republicans said they expected the Iran Nuclear Review Act would pass with strong support in the vote scheduled for Thursday. 'If we get to the final vote without additional blowups between now and then, I think it's going to be overwhelmingly supportive,' Senator Bob Corker, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, and author of the bill, told reporters at the Capitol." http://t.uani.com/1F5LzBH Reuters: "Iran and world powers are struggling to overcome deep divisions on two core sticking points in talks on a possible nuclear deal: reimposing U.N. sanctions if the Iranians violate the agreement and how Tehran can buy atomic technology, envoys said. Negotiators were wrapping up nearly a week of talks in New York on Tuesday... The current talks have been taking place on the sidelines of a conference on the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty... Western diplomats said on condition of anonymity that Iran and the six powers...were far from a final deal because of disagreements on sanctions, monitoring and other issues. 'The U.N. Security Council sanctions issue is a difficult one,' a Western diplomat told Reuters about the talks in New York. 'It's going to take some time to resolve it and we have to resolve it.' The discussions have revolved around a future Security Council resolution that would endorse a deal and render invalid all previous sanctions resolutions, while keeping U.N. bans on ballistic missiles, an arms embargo and some other restrictions. U.S. and European Union negotiators want any easing of U.N. sanctions to be automatically reversible - negotiators call this a 'snapback' - if Tehran fails to comply with the terms of an agreement. Russia and China traditionally dislike such automatic measures... 'Without a snapback, there will be no nuclear deal,' one Western diplomat told Reuters." http://t.uani.com/1RcFmaw Reuters: "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday U.S. military threats made in the last few days may scupper nuclear talks as Tehran and six major world powers try to meet a June 30 deadline for a final deal. Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, said two U.S. officials have threatened Iran with military action if the talks fail. He gave no further details on the threats. 'Holding nuclear talks (with major powers) under shadow of threat is unacceptable for Iran ... Our nation will not accept it ... Military threats will not help the talks,' he said in a speech to a gathering of teachers broadcast live on state TV. 'In the past days, two U.S. officials have threatened to take military action against Iran if Iran refuses to accept this or that nuclear condition. What does negotiation mean under the shadow of threat,' he said to chants from the crowd of 'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel'. 'I am against holding (nuclear) talks under the shadow of threat.' Khamenei repeated his cautious support for the nuclear talks but said that the country's 'red lines' should be respected by the Iranian negotiators. 'Our negotiators should continue the talks with respect to our red lines... But they should not accept any imposition, humiliation and threat,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1zB7Mp4     Nuclear Program & Negotiations AFP: "Negotiations seeking a definitive accord on Iran's nuclear programme will resume on May 12 in Vienna, the European Union and Tehran said Tuesday. EU negotiator Helga Schmid and her Iranian counterparts Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht Ravanchi 'will resume their work on 12 May in Vienna,' the EU diplomatic service said in a statement. The political leaders of the other world powers involved in the negotiations will join the talks on May 15, the statement said. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking on state television in Tehran, confirmed the plans. 'We will resume negotiations next Tuesday up to Friday when the G5+1 (global powers) will join us and we will arrive at some conclusions,' said Araghchi, who is part of an Iranian tean currently taking part in expert-level talks in New York, on the margins of a UN disarmament summit." http://t.uani.com/1RcOjAJ Reuters: "President Barack Obama is expected to make a renewed U.S. push next week to help Gulf allies create a region-wide defense system to guard against Iranian missiles as he seeks to allay their anxieties over any nuclear deal with Tehran, according to U.S. sources. The offer could be accompanied by enhanced security commitments, new arms sales and more joint military exercises, U.S. officials say, as Obama tries to reassure Gulf Arab countries that Washington is not abandoning them. With little more than a week to go before Obama hosts the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council at the White House and then at Camp David, aides are discussing the options in pre-summit meetings with Arab diplomats... Wary that Obama might keep any new security pledges vague, Gulf states have also made clear they want this translated into concrete steps. 'This summit can't just be a big photo-op to pretend everybody's on the same page on Iran,' one Arab diplomat said." http://t.uani.com/1IgrZ6v Bloomberg: "To contain nuclear proliferation as sanctions against Iran are eased, world powers may need help from Alibaba and EBay. United Nations sanctions monitors and government officials suspect Iran has used online marketplaces to make contacts and obtain supplies while building up its nuclear program in defiance of international restrictions over the past decade. Officials and technology executives have struggled to modernize outdated controls that can be bypassed by 21st-century smugglers. While U.S. officials have known since 2007 that Iran was using e-commerce sites, they haven't been able to stamp out illegal procurement, in part because no international body exists to enforce the rules. Indeed, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and EBay Inc. both acknowledged facing problems with some listings on their sites. Alibaba is trying to improve its systems for removing such listings, a company spokeswoman said. EBay spokesman Ryan Moore said his company works with governments and law enforcement officials to increase the effectiveness of its monitoring tools." http://t.uani.com/1EXjOt8 Military Matters Free Beacon: "An Iranian naval fleet chased a U.S. warship and military planes through the waters off the southern coast of Yemen late Monday in yet another provocative encounter between the two nations, according to Iranian state media reports. A U.S. warship and several planes reportedly 'changed their direction' on Monday after encountering an Iranian naval fleet during a patrol in the Gulf of Aden near Yemen, Iranian state media revealed. The U.S. military assets fled 'after they came close to an Iranian naval fleet and were warned to move away,' Iran's state-controlled Fars News Agency reported. Iran also released video of the incident... Two 'U.S. reconnaissance planes named P3C [Papa 3 Charlie] and U.S. Navy destroyer, DDG81, approached several Iranian warships in a provocative move, ignoring the internationally set five-mile standard distance from Iran's 34th fleet of warships deployed in the Gulf of Aden,' Fars reported on Tuesday. 'The U.S. Navy vessel and planes then received a warning from Iranian Destroyer Alborz, and rapidly changed direction,' the report claimed." http://t.uani.com/1JQ6av8 AP: "A Marshal Islands-flagged cargo vessel seized by Iranian forces as it was traversing the Strait of Hormuz last month will likely be released in two days, after it pays a fine, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Wednesday. The April 28 seizure of MV Maersk Tigris followed a legal complaint by an Iranian private company, Marzieh Afkham told reporters during her weekly press conference. 'This is an absolutely legal matter,' she said. 'The ship has a private plaintiff and there was a lawsuit in progress against it. The vessel was seized as it entered Iran's territorial waters.' Afkham added that 'negotiations between the private complainant and the other party' were underway and that, 'based on the information we have acquired, it is likely that the dispute will be settled within the next two days.'" http://t.uani.com/1KhmWzU Congressional Action Al-Monitor: "Congress has yet to approve the process for reviewing a final deal with Iran, but already Republicans are plotting their next move... Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations panel on the Near East, said it's a foregone conclusion that Congress will take some kind of action once Congress passes the Corker bill. The Senate is expected to vote May 7, with the House following suit shortly thereafter. 'When you ask someone to marry you, you don't say: 'And do you think you'll enjoy the marriage?'' Risch said. 'I think it's understood by everybody that if this passes, there's going to be a vote of some kind - either of approval or disapproval - on the deal.' Democrats, however, beg to differ. 'I'm a strong supporter of the current bill, which defines that Congress has to have a review role and here's what the various options mean,' said co-sponsor Tim Kaine, D-Va. 'But if we decide to take no action under the bill, that is approval - it's congressional approval to start [lifting sanctions].' ... Republicans have another option, however: introducing a resolution of approval of the deal, and gleefully watching it fail. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., in fact has already suggested that may be exactly what he plans on doing." http://t.uani.com/1AF3fx4 Sanctions Relief Tasnim (Iran): "The 20th edition of International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition, known as one of the greatest exhibitions in Iran and the Middle East, opened its doors to visitors on Wednesday. The four-day exhibition officially started its work this morning with over 1,800 Iranian and foreign companies in attendance. An inauguration ceremony attended by Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri and a number of other officials was also held in Wednesday afternoon... More than 1200 Iranian companies and 600 foreign companies from 29 countries have applied for participation in the event. Companies from Italy, China, the UAE, India, Turkey, Russia, France, Belgium, Britain, Singapore, Monaco, South Korea, Ukraine, Spain, Austria, Kazakhstan, Hong Kong, Germany, and Switzerland are among the key participants in the exhibition. Such countries as Poland and Norway have also sent their trade and economic delegations to the exhibition." http://t.uani.com/1KLSP4t Trend: "A British oil company says it recognize Iran as a future market. 'We see Iran as a future market for us,' Simon Read, project sales manager for the British Smith Flow Control (SFC) told Trend on the sidelines of Iran's 20th International Oil, Gas, Refining, and Petrochemical Exhibition May 5. SFC is a company of manufacturers and designers of trapped-key valve interlocks. 'We currently work with Arsam Energy Pars and our target markets are oil, gas, and petrochemical markets,' Read said." http://t.uani.com/1PoMM6S Reuters: "Iran may join the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), which will carry Azeri gas to European markets, the country's ambassador to Azerbaijan said on Wednesday referring to the project, which is seen as Europe's alternative to its reliance on Russia. 'We're looking into the possibility of buying equity in TANAP,' Mohsen Pakayin told reporters. 'We may buy equity in the pipeline, if we reach our production targets by 2018.' TANAP envisages carrying 16 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II field in the Caspian Sea, one of the world's largest gas fields, which is being developed by a BP-led consortium." http://t.uani.com/1EgpUQM Bloomberg: "Iran is ready to return to the global commodities market, flooding it with fresh supplies and risking a slump in prices. Oil? Possibly, but there's a second industry that could be even more disrupted by a nuclear pact between Iran and the west: pistachio nuts. Iran has far more clout in the market for cocktail nibbles than it does in crude trading. While it ranks only as the world's seventh-largest oil producer, the Middle Eastern country vies with the U.S. to be the biggest pistachio grower... The U.S. pistachio crop was worth about $1.3 billion last year. For Iran, the crop is worth more or less the same, but has more importance for the country because it's the second-largest export of the country, behind crude oil." http://t.uani.com/1EXjCdp Regional Destabilization AFP: "Saudi Arabia's King Salman said Tuesday Gulf leaders must stand up to Iran at a conference held amid growing regional tension. Salman's call came at a meeting of Gulf monarchs in Riyadh also attended by French President Francois Hollande, who said his country was 'by the side' of Gulf nations. In a clear reference to Iran, Salman spoke of the need to confront an external threat that 'aims to expand control and impose its hegemony,' threatening regional stability and creating 'sectarian sedition.' ... 'I know that Iran is at the heart of your preoccupations,' Hollande told the summit." http://t.uani.com/1INp2JB Reuters: "While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thunders against a possible nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, his defense chiefs see Tehran's guerrilla allies as a more pressing menace... Ram Ben-Barak, director-general of Israel's Intelligence Ministry, accused Iran on Tuesday of 'seeking footholds' from Syria to Yemen to Egypt's Sinai and the Palestinian territories. But he deemed Hezbollah a foe as formidable as the conventional Arab armies that fought Israel in the 1967 and 1973 wars... An Iranian-backed Hezbollah presence in the Golan 'will pose a very big problem for us in the future', Ben-Barak said... When Israel's military intelligence chief, Major-General Herzi Halevy, visited Washington in March, as world powers and Iran entered the final stretch of negotiations on curbs to Iran's nuclear program, he urged U.S. care not to inadvertently fuel regional instability. 'What he was really interested in getting across was the military threat from groups like Hezbollah, the (Tehran-backed) Houthis in Yemen, and the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) in Syria,' one of Halevy's American hosts said." http://t.uani.com/1KLM0A4 Human Rights AP: "One of Iran's most prominent human rights activists, Narges Mohammadi, has been arrested by state security forces and detained in Tehran's Evin Prison, her husband said Wednesday. Mohammadi is a close associate of Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi. Her activism has included promoting women's rights and campaigning to end the death penalty. Her husband, Taghi Rahmani, told The Associated Press that about 10 people showed up at Mohammadi's house early Tuesday morning to detain her - a show of force he called 'very provocative.' Authorities later called her 8-year-old twins to inform them she was behind bars, said Rahmani, who lives in exile in France. 'Narges is a human rights activist. ... She hasn't done anything wrong,' he said. Mohammadi was a vice president of Ebadi's now-banned Defenders of Human Rights Center." http://t.uani.com/1F5NBly NYT: "The sister of Amir Hekmati, the Marine veteran from Michigan who has been imprisoned in Iran more than three and a half years, asked the International Committee of the Red Cross on Tuesday to visit him in Evin Prison in Tehran, one day after she said that Mr. Hekmati had resumed a suspended hunger strike out of despair over the apparent paralysis in his appeal. 'We are very worried about him,' the sister, Sarah Hekmati, said in the letter, which was made public by the family. 'Due to his living conditions in Evin and the lack of movement in his case, Amir has pledged to starve himself until he is released from Iranian captivity.' ... In the letter, Ms. Hekmati also provided further detail on the mistreatment and torture she said her brother had faced in prison, including 17 months of solitary confinement, forced stress positions, Taser strikes to the kidneys and sleep deprivation. She wrote that he had lost 30 pounds when he had first gone on a hunger strike, which he suspended in December after the Iranian penal authorities assured him his appeal was under review." http://t.uani.com/1F5KUAq ICHRI: "Astonished reactions to recent statements made by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during a television interview with PBS' Charlie Rose, in which he defended his government's human rights record, continue to pour in. Siamak Ghaderi, a journalist who was dismissed from his job at the Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency (IRNA) and imprisoned for four years in 2010 for publishing posts critical of the government on his blogs, told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, 'Currently, there are some 50 journalists and bloggers inside Iranian prisons for what they wrote.... I, along with many other journalists, was accused of 'propaganda against the state,' and 'assembly and collusion against national security,' for writings following the 2009 [disputed presidential election].' 'I spent weeks under duress inside Ward 209 of Evin Prison, [where I was pressured] to take responsibility for the news articles and reports I had written. What was all this pressure and the sentence I received for, then? Had I climbed up someone's wall? Had I embezzled government funds? It was for my journalism profession and my beliefs. Why I did I go to prison for four years, Mr. Zarif?' asked Siamak Ghaderi." http://t.uani.com/1INuBYx Guardian: "'Homosexual' and 'devil worshipping' hairstyles have been banned in Iran, alongside tattoos, sunbed treatments and plucked eyebrows for men, which are all deemed un-Islamic. The move - aimed at spiky cuts - follows a trend where, each summer, Iranian authorities get tough on men and women sporting clothing or hairdos seen as imitations of western lifestyles. In 2010, Iran banned ponytails, mullets and long, gelled hair for men, but allowed 1980s-style floppy fringes or quiffs... Mostafa Govahi, the head of Iran's barbers' union, told the semi-official Isna news agency on Monday that fancifully spiked hairstyles were banned and those who styled them risked having their shops closed... 'Haircuts that show symbols or signs of devil worshippers or those adopted by homosexuals are banned,' he said. 'I won't allow such wrongful western styles as long as I'm in this position.'" http://t.uani.com/1c5v2R7 Opinion & Analysis UANI Advisory Board Member Irwin Cotler in the National Post: "Canadian parliamentarians from across the political spectrum have joined together to launch the fourth annual Iran Accountability Week in order to sound the alarm on the toxic convergence of threats posed by the Iranian regime: the nuclear threat, terrorism, incitement to hatred, and particularly the widespread and systematic violation of human rights. Our program this year includes hearings of the House of Commons' Subcommittee on International Human Rights, a public forum on Parliament Hill, press briefings, political prisoner advocacy, and a concluding call to action. Among the participants are Dr. Ahmed Shaheed, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Iran; Iranian-Canadian journalist, filmmaker, and former political prisoner Maziar Bahari; and Marina Nemat and Shakib Nasrullah, both former prisoners of conscience at Iran's notorious Evin Prison. This year's Iran Accountability Week occurs at a most propitious time, as the P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran have overshadowed - if not sanitized - the Iranian regime's massive domestic repression. Indeed, in the shadow of the nuclear negotiations, Iran has been engaged in a horrific execution binge. For example, 43 people were executed in a three-day period in April alone. Moreover, the persecution and prosecution of the Baha'i religious minority have intensified; the criminalization of dissent continues unabated, mocking the recent World Press Freedom Day; and some 900 prisoners of conscience and political prisoners continue to languish in Iranian prisons, many subject to torture and under threat of execution. Accordingly, a centerpiece of Iran Accountability Week is the Global Iranian Political Prisoner Advocacy Project, whereby MPs and Senators 'adopt' political prisoners and engage in sustained public advocacy on their behalf. This year, I am continuing my advocacy on behalf of the seven imprisoned leaders of Iran's Baha'i community - known as the 'Yaran' - and I have also taken up the case and cause of Ayatollah Sayed Hossein Kazemeyni Boroujerdi, an imprisoned senior Shiite cleric and long-time advocate for religious freedom in Iran. These prisoners are all representative of the criminalization of religious and ethnic minorities in Iran, and their cases are case studies of Iranian injustice generally speaking." http://t.uani.com/1JQ9Cpo David Albright & Serena Kelleher-Vergantini in ISIS: "Despite the fact that Iran no longer has a stock of near 20 percent low enriched uranium (LEU) in hexafluoride form (UF6), it continues to retain a significant portion of this material in the form of oxide. In total, at the end of June, Iran will possess about 228 kilograms (kg) of near 20 percent LEU (uranium mass).  Based on historical data, an estimated 43 kg will be in uranium oxide powder at the end of June.  About 125 kg will be in scrap, waste, and in-process.  Another 60 kg of this LEU is expected to be in Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) fuel.  Most of the LEU in the TRR fuel will be fresh and not irradiated.  Irradiated LEU is typically much harder to chemically process and use in a breakout than unirradiated LEU. The U.S. Fact Sheet which outlines the parameters of a long term agreement with Iran does not discuss the fate of the near 20 percent LEU.  It does discuss a cap of 300 kg of LEU in Iran but this cap refers to LEU enriched under 3.67 percent and not the near 20 percent LEU.  U.S. officials have stated that the near 20 percent remaining in Iran would need to be mixed with aluminum, a step in making the fuel, or be in TRR fuel elements.  Once so mixed, U.S. officials have stated that they remove this near 20 percent from consideration in breakout calculations.  However, it is unclear if Iran has accepted this condition and more importantly whether this removal is justified.  The U.S. condition in fact may undermine its claim that the limits on Iran's centrifuge program achieve a 12 month breakout. The amount of Iran's near 20 percent LEU, in any form, should be reduced as much as possible to ensure that breakout periods remain at least 12 months, whether discussing overt or covert routes.  The reason is simple: not only is the LEU oxide powder easily re-convertible to hexafluoride, but other forms of near 20 percent LEU can be recovered into hexafluoride form in a straightforward manner, even when in a uranium/aluminum mixture in fuel or in a production form.  Once reconverted to a hexafluoride form, this LEU can be used in a breakout, significantly lowering breakout timelines because near 20 percent LEU is much closer to weapon-grade uranium than 3.5 percent LEU or natural uranium.  For example, if Iran can reconvert simply 50 kilograms of near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride (about 36 kilograms uranium mass), or about 16 percent of its current stock of this material, it can reduce a 12 month breakout timeline to about eight months.  A rule of thumb is that in a breakout 50 kg of near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride is worth 500 kg of 3.5 percent LEU hexafluoride. Thus, a challenge for negotiators is to remove from Iran or blend down to natural uranium most of this LEU.  The obvious target is the expected 43 kg in oxide powder and the 125 kg in the form of scrap, waste, and in-process, which total 168 kg and represent almost 75 percent of Iran's stock of near 20 percent LEU.  However, this step is not enough.  The LEU in fresh or unirradiated TRR fuel should also be made less usable in a breakout. One method to do that is to irradiate all the TRR fuel, at least partially, to increase the complication of extracting the LEU from the fuel. Any near 20 percent unirradiated LEU that remains in Iran should count against the cap of 300 kg of LEU allowed in Iran under a long-term agreement.  In determining its 3.67 percent LEU equivalence, the amount of near 20 percent LEU should be appropriately weighted." http://t.uani.com/1cmvZ8l James Kraska in Defense One: "Iran's seizure of the MV Maersk Tigris underscores the importance of a stable rule of law in the oceans, and the dangers of allowing one state to attempt to alter them for its own benefit. The ship, boarded and taken by force to Bandar Abbas on April 28, was turned over to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to fulfill a court judgment in favor of Iran Ports Authority. It should surprise no one that this vacuous legal rationale is incompatible with the rules set forth in the customary international law of the sea and reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention, or LOSC.... Iran's current claim of a 12-mile territorial sea means that other nations are entitled to exercise freedom of navigation and enjoy transit passage through the strait. Otherwise, ships and aircraft would still have a right to the historic antecedent of general high seas freedoms, which is even more permissive. Either way, the law of the sea recognizes unimpeded passage. Instead, Iran has sought to preserve the navigational regime of innocent passage. Even assuming that the regime of innocent passage applied to the Maersk Tigris, however, Iran's seizure was still unlawful. Tehran is trying to replace the package deal of the law of the sea with a cafeteria-style selection of favored provisions and rejection of others that benefit and protect the international community. This conduct is of a familiar style and pattern for the regime in Iran, and an indictment on its ability to implement international law in good faith." http://t.uani.com/1INE4iH           Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.