Friday, March 15, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iran Nuclear Weapon to Take Year or More, Obama Says









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NYT: "President Obama told an Israeli television station on Thursday that his administration believed it would take Iran 'over a year or so' to develop a nuclear weapon, and he vowed that the United States would do whatever was necessary to prevent that from happening. Less than a week before his first visit as president to Israel, Mr. Obama pledged to continue diplomatic efforts, but he promised that the United States would keep all options on the table to ensure that Iran did not become a nuclear threat to its neighbors. 'Right now, we think it would take over a year or so for Iran to actually develop a nuclear weapon, but obviously we don't want to cut it too close,' Mr. Obama told the Israeli station, Channel 2 TV. He said his message to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, 'will be the same as before: 'If we can resolve it diplomatically that is a more lasting solution.' 'But if not, I continue to keep all options on the table,' he added. Mr. Obama's estimated timeline contrasts with Mr. Netanyahu's stated belief that Israel and its Western allies are likely to have to intervene by the spring or summer, when, he says, Iran's scientists will have enriched enough uranium to become a nuclear threat. Iran denies that its nuclear program has any military aim." http://t.uani.com/XErrBM

Free Beacon: "The Obama administration has granted Iran sanctions waivers to 11 countries, allowing them to import Tehran's heavily sanctioned crude oil for another 180 days as they attempt to wean themselves off of the product. Secretary of State John Kerry announced Wednesday that Japan and 10 European countries would be granted waivers, which permit them to import low levels of Iranian crude oil and perform certain financial transactions with Iran... 'These 11 countries have generally done a good job cutting their imports of Iranian oil. Unfortunately, their helpful actions are being cancelled out by some of the Asian buyers that will be up for more waivers in June,' said Nathan Carleton, spokesperson for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a nonpartisan advocacy group that pressures international companies to cease dealings with Tehran. 'We hope that the Obama administration will act decisively then, and only grant waivers to nations that have cut their imports to zero, or that present a plan showing that the level will be at zero by the end of 2013,' Carleton said. 'Granting waivers-en-masse in June would be a major mistake, since Asian oil demand is expected to rise in 2014, and make this process more difficult.'" http://t.uani.com/ZqWnkF

Reuters: "The United States slapped financial sanctions on Thursday on a Greek businessman it says secretly operated a shipping network on behalf of the Iranian government to get around international sanctions on the country's sale of oil. 'Today, we are lifting the veil on an intricate Iranian scheme that was designed to evade international oil sanctions,' U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David Cohen said in a statement. The sanctions cited Dimitris Cambis and a number of front companies for buying tankers on behalf of the National Iranian Tanker Company, barred U.S. citizens from doing business with them and froze any of their assets under U.S. jurisdiction. Cambis was identified in a Reuters report last month that said Iran was using old tankers to ship oil to China. Reuters reported that Cambis had bought eight tankers last year, which were then used to transport Iranian crude. Cambis denied trading with Iran or the involvement of his vessels in loading Iranian oil." http://t.uani.com/YdBHhF
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Nuclear Program

NYT: "An Iranian jet fighter pursued an American surveillance drone over the Persian Gulf this week but ended the chase after a radio warning from an American escort plane, Pentagon officials said Thursday. The chase, which occurred Tuesday, followed a more serious encounter in November, when Iranian warplanes fired on, but missed, a Predator drone carrying out a similar classified surveillance mission. Pentagon officials said that in both instances the drones were in international airspace. Even so, the episodes illustrate the chance of unintended hostilities arising from encounters between remotely piloted surveillance craft and Iranian warplanes in the heavily militarized Persian Gulf." http://t.uani.com/XcCOuG

Free Beacon: "German prosecutors have accused Turkey of exporting to Iran nearly 1,000 items with 'nuclear applications,' according to German and Turkish media reports. German prosecutors allege Iran has established multiple 'front companies' in Istanbul, according to Today's Zaman, an English-language publication in Turkey. These illicit companies are believed to have shipped nuclear-related material back to Iran. Kristen Silverberg, a former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union, said Iran has a history of using front companies as a means to skirt sanctions. 'The Iranian regime has a long practice of using front companies' to evade sanctions and conduct illicit business affairs, Silverberg, who serves as president of United Against Nuclear Iran, a non-partisan advocacy group, told the Washington Free Beacon. Iran has 'really perfected the art of sanctions evasion, and we've seen them do that in response to every round [of sanctions], which is why it's so important for the U.S. and its allies to identify the front companies and continue to sanction them and any country abetting them,' Silverberg said." http://t.uani.com/15QAcs9

Sanctions 

WSJ: "Iran was India's seventh-largest supplier of crude oil for the first nine months of this financial year, slipping from third position after U.S. and European sanctions against Tehran forced India's refiners to cut their imports from the Persian Gulf country. India usually doesn't make public the amount of crude it imports from individual countries, but junior Oil Minister Panabaaka Lakshmi provided the data as a written reply Friday to lawmakers who requested the information in the lower house of Parliament. Iran supplied 9.7 million metric tons of crude to India in the nine-month period ended on Dec. 31. While the government didn't provide comparative figures for the April-December period of the last financial year, it said for the full year ended March 31, 2012, Iran was India's third-largest supplier." http://t.uani.com/Z3nYpI

Economist: "A year ago his Peugeot 206 was bought for 130m rials (then worth $10,500 at the official rate) at the factory gate of Iran Khodro, a domestic car-assembler. Now the state-owned firm sells them for more than twice as much, with dealers pushing the retail price up to 390m rials. Cars are becoming more expensive because they are made with foreign parts which keep on rising in price. Since Western governments imposed sanctions on Iran in December 2011, the rial has dropped by more than 60% against the dollar. Restrictions on Iran's banks make it even harder to buy parts, choking off supplies. This has only encouraged people to buy cars. They have become even less affordable for the poor. But middle-class Iranians buy them as investments as cash savings lose value because of inflation and the currency collapse. Iranians with government links are making a mint. At the end of 2011, after a run on the currency, officials fixed the exchange rate at 12,260 rials to the dollars to help importers. Three months ago this was cut to 24,368 rials. But only importers with government connections can get cheap dollars. They buy cars across the Persian Gulf, then sell them at home at the unofficial exchange rate of 37,000 rials." http://t.uani.com/10WLUCx

Human Rights

Fox News: "The wife of the American pastor imprisoned in Iran for his Christian faith is on her way to Washington, where she will press lawmakers to fight for her husband's freedom. Naghmeh Abedini, whose husband Saeed Abedini was sentenced to eight years in prison in his homeland, will appear before the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission in the House along with her U.S. based attorneys, Jay and Jordan Sekulow of the American Center for Law and Justice. Their goal is to convince the lawmakers to ratchet up pressure on Iran, either directly or through the Obama administration, which they say has been too quiet on the matter. 'He has been in that brutal prison long enough. He hasn't broken any laws. It's not just Saeed, there are many others. They are being persecuted because of their beliefs, and I hope this hearing sheds light on other cases as well,' said Naghmeh Abedini in an exclusive interview with Fox News." http://t.uani.com/YvYIsu

Guardian: "An Iranian official whose job is to protect human rights has described homosexuality as an illness after a UN special rapporteur expressed concerns about the systematic persecution of Iran's gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender community. 'In our society, homosexuality is regarded as an illness and malady,' said Mohammad Javad Larijani, secretary general of Iran's high council for human rights, a judicial body in charge of defending the Islamic republic against allegations of rights abuse. Larijani made his remarks on state television in Tehran after Ahmed Shaheed, a former foreign affairs minister of the Maldives, who is tasked by the UN with investigating Iran's human rights record, published his latest report which warned against widespread and systematic violations in the country." http://t.uani.com/10QnTcs

Reuters: "Western powers are trying to sabotage Iran's presidential election in June but the vote will go ahead and offer a fair choice between reformists and conservatives, a senior Iranian official said on Thursday. Journalists and others suspected of complicity in a plot to destabilize the Islamic Republic have been arrested and will receive due process, said Mohammad Javad Larijani, secretary-general of Iran's High Council for Human Rights. 'The (Iranian) security people discovered that there is a grouping connected to the secret services of a number of European countries - I can name one of them which is Britain's secret service, and they were creating a grouping to do sabotage in the structure of the campaign,' Larijani told Reuters." http://t.uani.com/ZMZ9AP

Opinion & Analysis


UANI CEO Amb. Mark Wallace in WSJ: "At Bandar Abbas, Iran's largest port, ships bearing the distinctive 'Evergreen' insignia dock and unload their cargo. On the other side of the world, Evergreen vessels make their scheduled calls at Los Angeles Harbor, the biggest container port in the United States. This isn't unusual. Several of the world's leading shipping lines routinely operate in Iranian ports-and then they continue to do business in major ports across the U.S. This is contrary to the spirit of U.S. and European Union sanctions, and it needs to be stopped. The National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Obama in January, contains a provision that authorizes sanctions against any person who knowingly supports activity benefiting port operators in Iran. The main port operator in Iran, Tidewater Middle East Co., is already blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury since it is controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which manages Tehran's nuclear and ballistic-missile programs. Despite attempts to conceal its ownership, Tidewater operates all of Iran's major ports-including the Shaheed Rajaee Complex at Bandar Abbas, through which 90% of Iran's container traffic passes. Ocean transportation is critical for the import of raw materials required for Iran's nuclear program. Cutting off access to these raw materials would hamper Tehran's nuclear drive. In addition to Evergreen (based in Taiwan), the United Arab Shipping Company fleet, jointly owned by six Persian Gulf states, makes calls at four Iranian ports: Asaluyeh, Bandar Khomeini, Khorramshahr and Bandar Abbas. This information is hardly secret. The websites of the United Arab Shipping Company (and other shippers such as Yang Ming, based in Taiwan) openly list offices run out of Tehran or Bandar Abbas. And despite its regular business with Iranian port operators, the United Arab Shipping Company's vessels visit the ports of Baltimore, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Norfolk and Savannah (according to the company's website). These shipping companies support the IRGC and the Tehran regime by using Tidewater-operated terminals and paying port loading fees. America's port authorities should deny docking privileges to shipping companies that continue to operate in Iran. All shippers should be presented with a clear choice: Stop doing business in Iran, or stop doing business with the U.S." http://t.uani.com/XcEiFo

James Zogby in HuffPo: "Policy discussions here in the U.S. about Iran and its nuclear program most often focus exclusively on Israeli concerns. Ignored are Arab and Muslim attitudes, especially those of Iran's Arab and non-Arab Muslim neighbors. It is known that several Arab governments have problems with the Islamic Republic in Tehran, but what of their publics? Over the past decade, we have been polling regional attitudes toward Iran and its policies culminating at the end of 2012 with a survey of 20,000 citizens in 17 Arab countries and three non-Arab Muslim countries (Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan). This 20 nation poll covered a range of topics including: attitudes toward Iran, its people, culture, and its nuclear program. Comparing our most recent findings (compiled in my new eBook Looking at Iran: Iran's Rise and Fall in Public Opinion) to the data from our earlier surveys in the region reveals important and dramatic changes in Arab and Muslim attitudes toward Iran. It also helps to identify factors that appear to serve as 'drivers' behind these changes. For example, when we polled on many of these same issues in 2006, Iran's favorable ratings in Arab and Muslim countries were at their highest point. Back then, in most countries, Iran's favorable ratings were in the 75 percent range (with Saudis giving Iran an 85 percent rating). Six years later the tables have turned. Now Iran's favorable ratings in these same countries have fallen to less than 25 percent (Saudi ratings have plummeted to 15 percent). What emerges from our 2011 and 2012 polls is that the earlier favorable attitudes toward Iran were not about Iran, per se. Instead they appear to be more a reaction to Arab public opinion's fury at Israel's behavior and U.S. policies in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq, coupled with the perception that Iran and its allies were standing firm in opposition to the 'machinations of the West.' What changed in 2012 is that the United States has lowered its regional profile, while Iran is perceived to be playing a divisive role in Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Syria... The same is true of Arab and Muslim attitudes toward Iran's nuclear program. Back in 2006, when Iran was seen as the bastion of resistance to the West, their nuclear ambitions were supported and defended by majorities in most countries. Our earlier polls show Arab and Muslim public opinion supporting Iran's claim that the program was for peaceful purposes. Whether peaceful or not, strong majorities in almost every country were opposed to any international effort to impose sanctions or use military means against the Islamic Republic. Today, there is virtually no support for Iran's nuclear ambitions -- with majorities now believing that Tehran has designs on producing a nuclear weapon. And sympathy for Iran has been replaced by widespread support for sanctions to stop Iran should it persist in advancing its nuclear program. Opposition to the use of military force remains high, with strong majorities still against it. But here too there has been a change, with some increase in the number of those who now support the use of a military strike should Iran persist with its nuclear program. The lesson is clear. When Iran was seen in the Arab and Muslim Worlds through the prism of U.S. and Israeli practices, it won. But when Iran is judged by its regional behavior and its domestic repression, it loses support in Arab and Muslim public opinion." http://t.uani.com/XcGNri

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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