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AP:
"Iran will target American aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf
should a war between the two countries ever break out, the naval chief of
Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard warned Tuesday as the country
completes work on a large-scale mock-up of a U.S. carrier. The remarks by
Adm. Ali Fadavi, who heads the hard-line Guard's naval forces, were a
marked contrast to moderate President Hassan Rouhani's recent outreach
policies toward the West - a reminder of the competing viewpoints that
exist at the highest levels within the Islamic Republic. Iran is building
a simple replica of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz in a shipyard in the
southern port of Bandar Abbas in order to be used in future military
exercises, an Iranian newspaper confirmed last month. Fadavi was quoted
Tuesday by the semi-official Fars news agency as saying the big size of
the U.S. carriers makes them an 'easy target.' He said contingency plans
to target American carriers are a priority for the Guard's navy.
'Aircraft carriers are the symbol of America's military might,' he said.
'The carriers are responsible for supplying America's air power. So, it's
natural that we want to sink the carriers.'" http://t.uani.com/1omAhN2
AFP:
"Iran's annual oil and gas fair opens in Tehran on Tuesday, with 600
foreign companies seeking to position themselves for a return to
large-scale operations if international sanctions are lifted... Regional
representatives from France's Total and the German conglomerate Siemens
are among 600 foreign companies registered for the International Oil, Gas
and Petrochemical Refining Exhibition, according to government officials.
The number is three times higher than in 2013, Nematollahi Akbar, a
spokesman for Iran's Oil Ministry, told AFP, noting that 1,200 Iranian
firms will attend, up 50 percent." http://t.uani.com/1fMdNoL
Daily Telegraph:
"Western security officials are investigating allegations that Iran
supplied Chinese-made bombs filled with chlorine gas to the Syrian regime
after satellite images emerged of a Syrian supply flight at Tehran's main
airport. Iran is understood to have ordered 10,000 chlorine canisters
from China that, according to reports, have been loaded on to flights to
Syria. Western security officials say the Assad regime has established a
regular air freight route with Iran using Russian-built Ilyushin 76
Syrian military cargo aircraft. Each flight between Damascus and Mehrabad
International Airport in Tehran can carry up to 40 tons of equipment, and
the weapons are believed to include short-range missiles, automatic
rifles and ammunition. Security officials are now trying to establish
whether these flights have been used by Iran to provide the Assad regime
with the chlorine bombs used against Syrian opposition fighters in
incidents revealed exclusively by The Telegraph last week." http://t.uani.com/1imQQmX
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Reuters: "Iran and six world powers could agree parts of a text of
an agreement on Tehran's nuclear program when they meet for a new round
of negotiations in Vienna next week, Russia's chief negotiator said in
comments published on Tuesday... After spelling out their positions in
three meetings earlier this year, senior officials from the countries now
plan to start drafting a text of a possible deal. 'As a result of this
round, we should at least get some elements of the agreed text and
elements of the common text,' Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei
Ryabkov told state-run RIA news agency in an interview... 'For now there
is no common (text) whatsoever. So if we get such an option, this would
be a good result,' Ryabkov, Russia's chief negotiator in the talks, said
ahead of the meeting that is expected to begin on May 13 and may last for
about four days." http://t.uani.com/1uuz7Dw
Reuters: "U.N. atomic agency officials held talks in Tehran on
Monday before visits to two uranium sites, as Iran acts to implement a
series of steps aimed at providing transparency on its nuclear research
by a mid-May deadline, official Iranian media reported. Iran and the U.N.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreed late last year on a
step-by-step process to help allay international concerns that Tehran may
be developing nuclear weapons capability... As part of seven measures
Iran has agreed to take by May 15, IAEA inspectors will on Monday and
Tuesday go to the Saghand uranium mine in central Iran and to the Ardakan
ore processing plant, official Iranian media said." http://t.uani.com/1huoV57
Military
Matters
AFP: "Two Iranian warships docked in Sudan on Monday, Khartoum's
military said, emphasising what analysts say are poor relations between
Islamist Sudan and its Arab neighbours. Sudan's army spokesman Sawarmi
Khaled Saad said the warships, one of them a navy supply ship, had
arrived in Port Sudan. They would refuel and then continue elsewhere, he
said, adding that during their port call civilians could tour the Iranian
ships. Naval vessels from Iran have periodically stopped in Port Sudan
for what Khartoum described as normal port calls." http://t.uani.com/1fPwtEz
Sanctions
Relief
Trend: "Exports of Iran's previously banned cargoes, including
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), condensate and petrochemical production
experienced a huge increase year-to-year. According to the Custom
Administration's new monthly report, published on May 5, the country's
exports and imports increased significantly, especially those that had
been banned since November 2013... Sanctions on Iran's LPG exports, as
well as gas condensate exports remained unchanged, but statistics
indicate that the export of these cargoes also increased after the
implementation on nuclear accord. According to the statistics of the
Custom Administration, Iran exported 846 million tons (or 230,000 barrels
per day) of gas condensate worth $779 million during the first month of
current fiscal year, covering March 21 to April 20, which indicates a
38.35 percent and 43.74 percent increase in volume and value
respectively, while the petrochemical exports increased by 20.91 percent
to $926 million compared to the same period last year. According to this
report, the country's LPG export experienced the most increase among
other major cargoes. Liquid propane and butane, so-called LPG is mostly
produced from crude oil. Iran's propane exports reached $211 million
during last month, indicating a 310 percent increase, while butane
exports increased by 74.75 percent to $131 million. The country also
imported $52 million worth of automobiles, indicating a 345 percent
increase. South Korea, which ceased auto export to Iran from mid-2012 to
November 2013 due to sanctions, shared two third of Iran's auto imports
during last month." http://t.uani.com/1j2j8be
Trend: "Iranian carmaker Iran Khodro has set conditions for French
giant Peugeot to return to the Iranian market. Iran Khodro Managing
Director Hashem Yekkeh Zare' said Peugeot should end its assembling works
and focus on manufacturing products jointly with the Iranian company,
Iran's Mehr news agency reported on May 5. We want them to transfer
technology to us and establish research and development centers in Iran,
Yekkeh Zare' said. We are ready to resume cooperation with Peugeot only
if it accepts this framework, he noted. The French car makers Renault SA
and PSA Peugeot CitroënSA have taken initial steps toward resuming
deliveries to Iran, previously one of their biggest markets. Renault and
Peugeot executives met separately with Iran's Industry Minister Mohammad
Reza Nematzadeh at an auto-parts fair in Tehran in late November... 'The
foreign firms are very eager to establish ties with Iranian auto
manufacturers and we intend to help further develop the country's auto
industry through such interactions,' Nematzadeh said." http://t.uani.com/1ojsr6T
AFP: "Iran is negotiating with the leading international auction
house Christie's to hold sales inside the Islamic republic to support its
blossoming art scene, it was reported on Monday. Dubai, across the Gulf
from south Iran, is currently a hotspot for emerging contemporary Iranian
artists as well as collectors, hosting the London-based auction house's
biannual sales events. Iranian artists have fetched top dollar in those
auctions. Quoted by the official IRNA news agency, Culture Minister Ali
Janati said negotiations with Christie's are under way to hold auctions
at Iran's Gulf resort Kish Island. 'The close distance to Dubai has
allowed Iranian artists -- who can afford the travel costs -- to present
their work there,' Janati said, noting that local auctions could attract
a bigger audience. The art scene in Tehran, although considered a
lightweight in global standards, is expanding with the country's nouveau
riche buying big, observers say." http://t.uani.com/1iTiU7g
Trend: "Iran's Research Institute of Petroleum Industry (RIPI) has
signed a memorandum of understanding with a German company on producing
fuel from residual and ultra heavy oil. The German company will help Iran
to develop its domestic technology on producing fuel from heavy oil, Amir
Abbas Hosseini, the RIPI's International and Technology Affairs deputy
said, Iranian IRNA news agency reported on May 6. No further details have
been released about the details of the memorandum." http://t.uani.com/1uuHQ8F
Human Rights
IHR: "A 15 year old Afghan juvenile offender has been executed in
the prison of Isfahan. Reports indicate that he was convicted of
drug-related charges and didn't have access to lawyer. Iranian
authorities claim that juveniles are not executed in Iran. This is the
seventh juvenile offender being executed in Iran in 2014. What separates
this case from the other juvenile executions is that this is the first
known case in several years where a juvenile is executed on drug
charges." http://t.uani.com/1sfLS2U
Domestic
Politics
Trend: "Iranian MP Masoud Mirkazemi said that he has some documents
which prove that the government took money out of the country's National
Development Fund (NDF). The documents reportedly show that the government
illegally took $4.1 billion out of the NDF in the last days of the
previous [calendar] year (which ended on March 20), Mirkazemi explained,
Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported on May 5. 'The government took the
money promising to return the money once the blocked oil revenues arrive
in the country,' he said. The government has rejected the claim, but
Mirkazemi advised the officials to be honest and say the truth. The
deputy director general of NDF said on May 2 that the current administration
has not taken any money from the fund. 'Taking money out of the NDF needs
the parliament's approval,' Qasem Hosseini said, adding that so far the
parliament has not approved anything like that." http://t.uani.com/1fLRErd
Foreign Affairs
Trend: "The Iranian administration will not permit Israel to falsely
promote the country as a threat to global and regional security, the
country's foreign ministry has said. Mohammad Javad Zarif accused
Israelis of implementing an anti-Iran promotional project under the false
pretext of Holocaust denial, Iranian Mehr news agency reported on May 6.
Zarif made the remarks in the parliament while responding to the MPs
about his statements on 'confirming the Holocaust.' ... The top diplomat
also accused Israel of 'making anti-Iran propaganda to cover up its daily
crimes against Palestinians.' The Iranian foreign minister came under
fire from the country's conservatives after he said the Holocaust was a
'horrifying tragedy' that 'should never occur again' in an interview in
early February." http://t.uani.com/1ihFwwM
Al-Monitor: "Al-Monitor learned from a source close to the Iranian
Embassy in Baghdad that [commander of the Quds Force] Qassem Soleimani
came to Baghdad weeks prior to the elections to try to generate support
for a consensus among Shiite party leaders - including those from
Maliki's Dawa party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq led by Ammar
al-Hakim and the Ahrar bloc led by Muqtada al-Sadr - in support of
Maliki, but the leaders of the other parties resisted the effort." http://t.uani.com/1myojyJ
Opinion &
Analysis
Greg Jones in NPEC: "Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are
continuing in an effort to produce a follow-on agreement, termed the
'Comprehensive Solution,' to the November 2013 'Joint Plan of Action'
(JPA). Much of the discussion of the Comprehensive Solution has
focused on the terms such an agreement should include to prevent Iran
from being able to produce nuclear weapons. However, this objective
will not be attainable unless the agreement addresses key aspects of
Iran's nuclear program, fixes the flaws in the JPA which seriously
constrain any agreement and recognizes fundamental problems with
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards as currently
implemented. First, Iran's ability to quickly produce Highly Enriched
Uranium (HEU) means that Iran is already a de facto nuclear weapon
state. The Obama Administration, unwilling to face this U.S. policy
failure, continues to try to say otherwise. The Administration has turned
conventional nuclear nonproliferation wisdom on its head and implausibly
claims that it is the nonnuclear weapon components, not the HEU, that are
the great barrier to a country producing nuclear weapons. Any
successful nuclear agreement with Iran would need to deny it easy access
to HEU, not only in the short-term but in the long-term as well.
Similarly, any fix for Iran's Arak plutonium production reactor would
need to address the possibility that the reactor could be reconverted to
produce significant amounts of plutonium. Second, several key elements of
the Comprehensive Solution have already been determined by the JPA.
These are that the Comprehensive Solution will 'have a specified
long-term duration to be agreed upon,' that Iran will be allowed to retain
some amount of centrifuge enrichment capability and, once the
Comprehensive Solution has lapsed, Iran's nuclear program will be under
no special restrictions but rather 'will be treated in the same manner as
that of any non-nuclear weapon state.' Many analysts have
mistakenly referred to the Comprehensive Solution as a 'final' nuclear
agreement but clearly it will only be a long-term interim
agreement. The terms of the final agreement have already been
enunciated in the JPA, namely that Iran will have an unrestricted
centrifuge enrichment program. A 'Comprehensive Solution' based
solely on the terms of the JPA will not only enhance Iran's nuclear
weapon capability in the long-term but also lay the groundwork for the
further spread of nuclear weapons by legitimizing any country's desire
for a centrifuge enrichment program. Third, it is necessary to
delegitimize the possession of centrifuge enrichment by any non-nuclear
weapon state. To do this the U.S. must insist that IAEA safeguards
do what they say they do, not only provide the detection of the diversion
of nuclear material but also provide the timely detection of that
diversion. Commercial-scale centrifuge enrichment facilities can
produce HEU so quickly that these facilities are unsafeguardable as timely
detection of diversion is impossible. (Appendix 2) Nor is the
problem restricted to just centrifuge enrichment. Recently, China
has expressed concern about Japan's large and soon to be rapidly
expanding plutonium stockpile. The U.S., instead of taking this
opportunity to try to strengthen IAEA safeguards, supported the IAEA's
position that because this plutonium had not been diverted in the past,
there is no danger that it will be diverted in the future. If this
were really true, there would be no need for IAEA safeguards at all. Only
by facing the inherent dual peaceful/military nature of nuclear
technology is it evident what the terms of any agreement with Iran should
be, namely that Iran should have no centrifuge enrichment capability and
that it should not be possible to reconvert the Arak reactor to natural
uranium fuel for large-scale plutonium production. This latter
requirement means that at a minimum, Iran would need to export all of its
current heavy water stocks and shut down and dismantle its heavy water
production facility. Better still, the reactor should never be
finished and its components should be destroyed. A Comprehensive Solution
based solely on the terms of the JPA would do more harm than good.
It would legitimize Iranian possession of centrifuge enrichment, allowing
Iran in the long-term to have a larger, more robust centrifuge enrichment
program than it would otherwise possess. At the same time it would
allow any country to claim the 'right' to centrifuge enrichment, enabling
it to get very close to possessing nuclear weapons." http://t.uani.com/Rk2Kbs
Kenneth Pollack in NYT: "The United States and its allies have
finally begun to work out the terms of a nuclear deal with Iran. That's
hopeful because an agreement that forecloses Iran's pursuit of nuclear
weapons would be enormously beneficial. Such a comprehensive accord would
build on the Joint Plan of Action signed last November. That was a
preliminary deal in which Iran agreed to pause its nuclear program in
return for some modest relief on sanctions. The deal is set to expire in
July, but can be renewed for another six months. Washington seems focused
on limiting the numbers and types of centrifuges that Iran would be
allowed to possess, as well as the quantities and qualities of uranium it
would be allowed to keep. But those issues are not the keys to getting
the best deal with Iran. They are important, but they should not be the
White House's highest priority. Instead, the Obama administration should
focus on three other factors: conducting intrusive inspections, designing
a mechanism to easily reimpose sanctions if Iran cheats, and extending
the duration of the agreement. International inspectors must be a
constant presence at Iran's nuclear sites and they need to be able to go
anywhere and see anything - immediately and without being blocked by the
government. Iran has already agreed to abide by the Additional Protocol
to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which does establish somewhat
more expansive inspections and monitoring, but given Iran's history of
lying about its nuclear program, America needs what it had in Iraq: the
right of the inspectors to have completely unfettered access. As
important as highly intrusive inspections are, they can only be as
effective as their enforcement mechanism. The history of arms control and
arms limitation agreements suggests that states abide by them when they
believe it is likely that they'll get caught and might pay a heavy price
for getting caught. In Iraq, Libya and Iran today, that punishment has
taken the form of powerful sanctions. And it is worth noting that the
1994 nuclear agreement with North Korea didn't work because it was
predicated mostly on offering Pyongyang carrots that could be withheld,
while the threatened sticks were ephemeral and inadequate. The biggest
diplomatic obstacle America is likely to face after signing a
comprehensive agreement with Iran would be getting the United Nations
Security Council (and the European Union) to reimpose sanctions if Iran
were to ever restart its prohibited nuclear programs - especially if the
evidence of cheating was ambiguous. That's why it's not enough just to
have intrusive inspections. America also needs a 'snap-back' mechanism to
be able to quickly and easily reimpose the sanctions if the United States
and its allies decide that Iran is violating the agreement. The best way
to create such a mechanism is to suspend the United Nations and European
sanctions rather than lifting them outright. In both cases, a new
resolution could be passed every six months that would suspend all of the
effects of the sanctions for six months, renewable in perpetuity. This
would avoid the difficult process of going to the Security Council and
getting a new sanctions resolution passed by a majority of the 15 members
without any (Russian or Chinese) vetoes. As we have seen with Iraq, North
Korea and elsewhere, that can be diplomatically impossible no matter how
convincing the evidence. Finally there is the question of duration.
Although no one knows for sure, there is considerable evidence that
Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, is sincere in his desire for a nuclear
deal. But Mr. Rouhani will be president of Iran for another seven years
at most and it is impossible to know who will succeed him. In 2005, the
reformist Mohammed Khatami was replaced by a zealot, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
America must therefore seek an enduring deal, one that will last beyond
Mr. Rouhani's term in office. Although the terms are still being
negotiated, the inevitable rumors suggest that Washington may be ready to
agree to as little as 10 years. Twenty years would be better. And 30 or
50 would be better still." http://t.uani.com/1rYC0Zj
Joyce Karam in Al-Arabiya: "With an open conflict in Syria, a
collapsing peace process, uncertainty in Egypt and a more defiant Russia
on the global stage, it is increasingly looking likely that the Iranian
nuclear issue will define the Barack Obama legacy in foreign policy. A
deal with Iran as soon as this summer on the nuclear issue could salvage
Obama's chances at a groundbreaking accomplishment that could transform
the Middle East and Washington's relations with Tehran, plagued since
1979. By the same logic, the possible failure of the Iranian talks will
dash Obama's hopes at a presidency marked by transformational foreign
policy, and leave one built on key domestic policy accomplishments, while
limiting the U.S. footprint abroad... A nuclear deal with Iran will carry
strategic implications for the Middle East in reshuffling the balance of
power with sanctions eased, and on Iran's own relations with the United
States and the West. It would, nevertheless, rescue Obama's foreign
policy legacy, unless his efforts meet the fate of former Presidents
Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan during the hostage crisis and the Iran
contra scandal." http://t.uani.com/1qaitcP
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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