Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Eye on Iran: Six Powers, Iran Launch Crunch Phase of Nuclear Diplomacy








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Reuters: "Six world powers and Iran launched a decisive phase of diplomacy on Wednesday to begin drafting a lasting accord that would curb Tehran's contested nuclear activity in exchange for a phased end to sanctions that have hobbled the Iranian economy. After three months of floating expectations rather than negotiating possible compromises, the sides now aim to devise a package meant to end years of antagonism and curtail the risk of a wider Middle East war with global repercussions. Washington's decades-long estrangement from Iran could ease, improving international stability, if a deal were done but U.S. officials warned against unwarranted optimism given persisting, critical differences between the sides... An accord in two months is far from assured, with Western diplomats warning that divisions could prove insurmountable. 'Quite frankly, this is very, very difficult,' a senior U.S. official told reporters on the eve of the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'I would caution people that just because we will be drafting it certainly does not mean an agreement is imminent or that we are certain to eventually get to a resolution.'" http://t.uani.com/RQkiwc

LAT: "A top U.S. official cautioned Tuesday that obstacles remain before a nuclear deal can be reached between Iran and six world powers and warned that the widespread optimism about the four-month-long negotiations has gotten 'way out of control.' Though it appears that Iran and the six powers whose representatives are gathered this week in Vienna all want to draft a deal, 'having the intent doesn't necessarily mean that it will happen,' the official, who declined to be identified under Obama administration ground rules, told a group of reporters. 'There are still some significant gaps.... We're working hard but it remains to be seen if we'll get to where we're hoping to get to.'" http://t.uani.com/1jH4S8f

Algemeiner: "Advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran has called on attendees of Iran's 19th International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition, held last week in Tehran, to fully disclose the nature and extent of their business activities in the Islamic Republic, which is still the object of international sanctions. The group, whose mission is to warn the world about Iran's intentions and prevent the Islamic Republic from achieving nuclear weapons capability, named European energy companies that attended the event, and called out one global French firm, Nexans, that also supplies the U.S. government. In a statement, UANI said, 'The presence of European and Asian companies at the oil show directly contravenes the efforts of the international community to maintain economic pressure on the Iranian regime while also demonstrating disregard for President Obama's pledge to 'come down ... like a ton of bricks' on foreign firms expanding their Iran business.'" http://t.uani.com/1k0Nv1I
       
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Al-Monitor: "French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on May 13 that a nuclear agreement with Iran could only be reached if it deals seriously with the scale of Iran's centrifuge program and answers questions about the alleged past military dimensions of its nuclear work. Speaking to a small group of senior American journalists in Washington as talks resumed in Vienna on a long-term nuclear agreement with Iran, Fabius said he could not forecast whether the negotiations would succeed by the July 20 expiration of the current interim accord. 'If it is possible to reach agreement, okay. If not possible, also okay,' Fabius said. 'We have to be firm, very serious and clear cut.' If Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) do manage to reach agreement, he added, 'It will be at the last moment.' Fabius, who held up an interim deal for several weeks last fall to the apparent annoyance of Secretary of State John Kerry, laid down three conditions for a longer-term arrangement: It must be 'comprehensive, ... clear about the past' and resolve the issue of 'breakout time.' On this last point, he explained, 'We have to take such steps to be able to react if they decide not to fulfill their commitment.' Fabius also suggested that Iran must agree to reduce the number of centrifuges it currently has installed (about 19,000) and is operating (around 9,000), but he did not specify by how much." http://t.uani.com/1gDBniT

AP: "Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Wednesday promised U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf that negotiations to contain Iran's nuclear program will not weaken their security. In remarks opening a conference with his Gulf counterparts, Hagel said Washington is hopeful of progress this week in the Iran deal-drafting talks in Vienna. 'As negotiations progress, I want to assure you of two things,' Hagel told the Gulf Cooperation Council. 'First, these negotiations will under no circumstances trade away regional security for concessions on Iran's nuclear program.' The Pentagon chief continued, 'Second, while our strong preference is for a diplomatic solution, the United States will remain postured and prepared to ensure that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon - and that Iran abides by the terms of any potential agreement.'" http://t.uani.com/1hLBZDg

AFP: "Iran is sharing nuclear technology with North Korea, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview published Wednesday, as Tehran and world powers hold talks aimed at ending a decade-old standoff. Netanyahu, who is in Japan this week for talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, said Iran 'would share whatever technology it acquired with North Korea,' the Mainichi Shimbun reported in a front-page piece. Asked if Pyongyang is receiving technologies linked to nuclear and missile development from Iran, Netanyahu said: 'Yes, that's exactly the case.' North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programme is one of Japan's major security concerns... Late Tuesday, during a meeting with Kishida, Netanyahu called both Iran and North Korea 'rogue' states. 'We see a danger and a challenge posed by a rogue state arming itself with nuclear weapons. In your case it's North Korea,' he said. 'We are faced with such a rogue state in the form of Iran and its quest to develop nuclear weapons,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1lenKt4

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "India cut its monthly Iranian crude imports by 42 percent in April from March, in a further sign that Asian oil buyers are reining in an early-2014 spree that took Tehran's exports well past levels allowed under an interim deal with the West... India, Iran's top client after China, shipped in about 225,000 bpd of the republic's oil in April, the lowest in four months, according to tanker arrival data obtained from trade sources and compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Analytics. India's oil imports from Iran in April, the first month of new annual contracts with Tehran, nearly doubled from a year ago, the data showed. The imports in the first four months of 2014 surged 49 percent versus last year, the data also showed, with the biggest increases coming in the first quarter. India and other top buyers of Iranian oil - China, Japan and South Korea - let their purchases rise sharply in the first three months of the year, after the temporary deal easing some sanctions on Tehran went into effect in January. In March, Iran's top four clients - China, India, Japan and South Korea - imported 1.15 million bpd of Iranian crude and condensate, down from February's 1.37 million bpd, the highest aggregate imports in more than two years... Tanker loading schedules that were seen by Reuters in April indicated that the imports by Iran's top clients should fall again in May. Essar Oil and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd were the only two Indian refiners that purchased oil from Iran in April. State-run MRPL and Indian Oil Corp plan to keep their annual purchases from Iran at last year's levels of about 80,000 bpd and 25,000 bpd, officials at the companies said." http://t.uani.com/1jsRT54

Trend: "Iran's agreements with Russian and Ukrainian firms to develop four oil fields have been halted until further notice... National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Russia's Tatneft signed a deal, worth $700 million, in 2011 to develop the Zagheh heavy crude oilfield in southwest Iran... Iran also signed a contract with a consortium consisting of Iranian and Ukrainian companies in 2012 for the development of Kouhmond, Boushkan and Kouhkaki oil fields. The contract, valued at about $800 million, was signed between the Petroleum Engineering and Development Company, an affiliate of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), and Inter Naft Gas Prom Pars Co., which is a consortium of Iranian and Ukrainian entities, Press TV reported." http://t.uani.com/1lygmdw

Trend: "Iran swapped 210,000 tons of oil products in the Caspian Sea in the 12 month period, which ended on March 20. Deputy oil minister, Abbas Kazemi, said that liquid gas swap faced 500 percent increase in the mentioned period, while mazut swap increased by 170 percent, Iran's Mehr News Agency reported on May 14. 'Mazut and liquid gas swap between Iran and Caspian Sea states reduces Iran's costs for transferring and storing oil products,' he explained. Deputy oil minister, Ali Majedi, said on May 7 that Iran is ready to start oil swap with neighboring countries." http://t.uani.com/1oOEitO

Trend: "Russia will build the Rasht-Astara railway in northern part of Iran. The president of Iranian Railways, Mohsen Pour Seyed Aqaei and chairman of the Council of the Board and president of Russian Railways JSC, Vladimir Yakunin discussed six rail projects, Iran's IRIB news agency reported on May 10. Heads of the railways of Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan agreed that the Rasht-Astara railway to be built by Russia. Also, the Azerbaijani side will extend the railway from Iran-Azerbaijan border into Azerbaijan's territory." http://t.uani.com/1hLFh9D

Sanctions Enforcement & Impact

Reuters: "BNP Paribas is in talks with U.S. authorities to pay more than $3 billion to resolve probes into whether the French bank violated U.S. sanctions on Iran, Sudan and other countries, people familiar with the matter said. The bank warned last month it faced fines in excess of $1.1 billion over the matter, but declined to provide a specific number. The probes are being conducted by the U.S. Justice Department, the U.S. Attorney's office in Manhattan, the U.S. Treasury Department, the Manhattan District Attorney's office, and the New York Department of Financial Services." http://t.uani.com/1hLAMvD

Terrorism

Long War Journal: "In a response to al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri's latest attempt at reconciliation with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham, ISIS spokesman Abu Muhammad al Adnani made a startling admission: Al Qaeda has ordered its fighters and branches to refrain from attacking the Iranian state in order to preserve the terror group's network in the country... While analysts often cite the tired cliche that Sunni al Qaeda couldn't possibly cooperate with Shia Iran, we've documented al Qaeda's relationship with Iran for years. And although Adnani didn't explicitly state that al Qaeda had a deal with Iran 'to safeguard its interests and supply lines,' the US government has said it has evidence of such an agreement... While analysts often cite the tired cliche that Sunni al Qaeda couldn't possibly cooperate with Shia Iran, we've documented al Qaeda's relationship with Iran for years. And although Adnani didn't explicitly state that al Qaeda had a deal with Iran 'to safeguard its interests and supply lines,' the US government has said it has evidence of such an agreement." http://t.uani.com/1oqWigD

Al-Monitor: "A bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation on Tuesday requiring President Obama to report on countries that harbor Hezbollah and determine whether they're doing all they can to snuff out the Shiite militia. The Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act of 2014, introduced by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., closely tracks House legislation first revealed by Al-Monitor in March, but puts more pressure on foreign countries to take action against Hezbollah, which the State Department deems a terrorist group. The Senate bill, like the House version, calls for sanctions against financial institutions - including central banks - that knowingly facilitate Hezbollah's illicit activities, including money laundering, and targets providers that knowingly transmit the militia's propaganda channel, Al-Manar TV. It also requests the president consider adding Hezbollah to the list of significant narcotics traffickers or significant transnational criminal organizations, both designations that would give the government more authorities to target the group. The Senate bill goes a step further, however, by requiring that the president provide Congress within 90 days of enactment with a list of 'countries in which Hezbollah maintains important portions of its global logistics networks' as well as a list of 'countries in which Hezbollah, or any of its agents or affiliates, conducts significant fundraising, financing, or money laundering activities.'" http://t.uani.com/T2bsMG

Syria Conflict

WSJ: "France's foreign minister said his government has evidence the Syrian government used chemical agents, largely chlorine, in at least 14 separate attacks against rebels and civilians in recent months... The charges leveled by Mr. Fabius, however, were more specific and far-reaching. Coming during a high-profile visit to Washington, the disclosure also could increase pressure on the Obama administration to take a more aggressive approach to the conflict and specifically in aiding rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad's regime." http://t.uani.com/1mUMCLQ

Fars News (Iran): "In a statement on Wednesday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry described the news as 'a lie', and said the fact that the news comes from media affiliated to the Zionist regime makes it all the more evident that the report is a 'fabrication'. 'This is not the first time that this Zionist news outlet spreads lies to deviate the world's public opinion from realities,' the statement said." http://t.uani.com/1v4jeEa

Human Rights

RFE/RL: "A photo of Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Musavi has emerged online and been widely shared on social media. The photo seems to have been released to mark Father's Day, celebrated in Iran this week. The snapshot is the first to be made public since Musavi was put under house arrest in February 2011 for challenging Iranian leaders. The origin of the photo is not clear. It was published on the opposition website Kalame, which is close to Musavi, and which praised the opposition figure for his resistance in the face of the state pressure he's been facing. The website said the photo was not taken 'in recent days.' Kalame said Musavi has become a 'compassionate father' for all Iranians." http://t.uani.com/1oODyoO

ICHRI: "Nine prisoners found guilty of drug trafficking charges were hanged in the Karoun Prison courtyard in Ahvaz on May 12, 2014, after their sentences were confirmed by the Revolutionary Court, the Prosecutor General, and the Head of the Judiciary, the Khuzestan Province prosecutor's office has announced... Four days earlier, two prisoners were executed inside the Qom Central Prison. They had been arrested in 2011 on drug trafficking charges... UN experts and government officials have repeatedly voiced concern over Iran's use of the death penalty in drug-related convictions. Under international law, the use of the death penalty is restricted to only the 'most serious' crimes, and the UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions has explicitly held that drug-related crimes do not meet this criterion. Nevertheless, drug offenders are routinely sentenced to death and executed in Iran." http://t.uani.com/RQatyo

ICHRI: "A Kurdish human rights lawyer has been tried on charges of membership in an illegal political group and propaganda against the state for providing information on prison conditions to the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran, a source told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. Masoud Shamsinejad appeared at Branch 2 of Orumiyeh Revolutionary Court under Judge Sheikhlou on May 7, 2014. He was defended by three lawyers, Mohammad Saleh Nikhbakht, Abbas Jamal, and Osman Mozayan. In addition to giving information about conditions in Orumiyeh Prison in West Azerbaijan Province to Special Rapporteur Ahmed Shaheed, Shamsinejad is accused of giving interviews to Kurdish media abroad. 'The Intelligence Ministry wants to accuse him of supporting Kurdish [armed] groups because he was a lawyer for Kurdish political activists,' the source told the Campaign." http://t.uani.com/1nNy4KZ

Foreign Affairs

Reuters: "Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of Iran urged Pakistan on Monday to avoid 'wicked' U.S. influence and build stronger ties with Tehran, blaming Washington for rising sectarian violence in the Iranian-Pakistani border region that has strained relations. Speaking to visiting Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Khamenei accused the United States and 'some other governments' of plotting a rift between the Muslim neighbors. 'We do have information on certain movements along our long borders, with some trying to create insecurity, and we cannot believe these are unprovoked and accidental,' Khamenei said in comments carried by Iranian media. 'America, whose wickedness is known to all, is among the governments trying to make distance between Iran and Pakistan. Besides America, there are other governments at work too.'" http://t.uani.com/1sIKINx

Opinion & Analysis

Payam Akhavan  in the Toronto Star: "Imagine a muscular bearded revolutionary with a machine gun. Now imagine him putting the hangman's noose around the neck of a blindfolded 17-year-old girl. Her heinous crime? Teaching Sunday school for children. And then imagine the same militant forces returning to excavate her gravesite 30 years later to remove all traces of this shameful act. This shocking scenario unfortunately is not from a poignant Hollywood film. It is the reality playing out in Iran today, as the powerful Revolutionary Guards excavate the historic cemetery in the city of Shiraz where Mona Mahmudnizhad and nine other women executed in 1983 are buried, together with 950 other members of the persecuted Baha'i religious minority. This latest act is profoundly repugnant and perplexing. What, it may be asked, are the mighty Revolutionary Guards so afraid of? Since the earliest days of the 1979 Islamic revolution, the Baha'i minority of Iran has been subject to violent persecution. Almost the entire leadership of this peaceful community was systematically exterminated in what UN expert Benjamin Whitaker had described by 1985 as a 'genocide.' It was in this context that on June 18, 1983, 17-year-old Mona Mahmudnizhad and nine other women were executed. Thousands of others were imprisoned, tortured, dismissed from employment and schools, or had their properties confiscated. The desecration of religious sites and cemeteries was a particularly blatant expression of a hateful ideology of 'cultural cleansing,' aimed at eliminating all traces of Iran's Baha'i citizens. I was a contemporary of Mona, and her extraordinary courage left a deep and lasting impression on my generation. Reports emerged from sympathetic prison guards that, after severe torture, when she was being insulted and spat upon by those that were about to hang her, she put the noose around her own neck and smiled in a final act of defiance. Her torturers had not managed to break her. Hers was a triumph of the human spirit in the face of unimaginable cruelty. The Baha'is continue to be an all-purpose scapegoat for the Islamic Republic. A relentless stream of hate propaganda has accused them of every conceivable evil in the fertile imagination of the authorities: American imperialism, espionage for Israel, Wahhabism, religious 'waywardness,' sexual promiscuity, satanic rituals, and myriad other misdeeds. The Baha'is have also been blamed for the massive 2009 post-election protests - the so-called Green Movement. In short, the Baha'is are an expedient distraction for all the woes of a regime that continues to subject its citizens to human rights abuses, including the highest per-capita rate of executions in the world, as well as corruption and poverty. So what are the Revolutionary Guards so afraid of? The escalating demonization of Baha'is in recent times speaks volumes about the regime's fear of losing its grip on absolute power. The Iranian people have awakened to the reality of the hate propaganda as an instrument of repression. In unprecedented acts of solidarity, senior Islamic clerics such as Ayatollah Masoumi Tehrani have spoken in defence of Baha'is." http://t.uani.com/1qCJPs8

Maha Mehrgan in Asharq Al-Awsat: "The history of journalism in Iran is a story of more than 150 years of struggle between journalists and those in power. Depending on the political circumstances of the day, this struggle has sometimes put journalists on top, sometimes sent them to their deaths on charges of treason, and everything in between. It has been more than 35 years since the Islamic revolution culminated with the slogan 'freedom and republicanism' and 17 years since Iran's newspapers were recognized for the first time as the fourth pillar of civil society and as the columns of democracy under then-president Mohammad Khatami. Today, the Islamic Republic's newspapers are experiencing conditions as bad as those during after the 1907-1907 Constitutional Revolution and the 1953 coup against then-prime minister Mohammad Mossadeq. In the Khatami era, the emergence of the reformist newspaper Jame'eh laid the groundwork for the publication of a large number of other papers, setting the stage for 'golden age' of Iranian journalism. In 1999, newspaper readership in Tehran reached 86.2 percent of the population, and the average newspaper reading time exceeded 38 minutes a day. A short time later, a political crackdown and systematic action by conservatives was accompanied by the assassination of more than 80 authors, translators, poets and political activists by Intelligence Ministry agents. The golden age came to an end with the botched attempt on the life of Saeed Hajjarian-a key Khatami aide and a newspaper editor known as the foremost theorist of the reformist movement-the mass closure of newspapers in the spring of 2000 by government order, the arrest of journalists investigating the assassination bid, and the emigration of prominent journalists such as Mohsen Sazegara and Ebrahim Nabavi . In the intervening years, the Iranian government has weakened the reformist press. Today, a reformist press survives in name only-their content nothing more than what is relayed by conservative news agencies. Journalist and economic analyst Hadi Anvari recently concluded that the reformist press sources as much as 60 percent of its content from news agencies affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other conservative factions. Anvari reached his conclusion after reviewing the economics pages of a leading reformist newspaper in the second half of the first month of the Iranian calendar year, which began on March 21, and recording the contribution of news agencies affiliated with different factions to this newspaper. He published the results on his Facebook page. During those two weeks, when newspapers were dominated by news of the government's subsidy reform plan, 58 percent of the news articles published by this reformist newspaper were taken from conservative-run news agencies: Fars and Tasnim, which are affiliated with IRGC, and Mehr, which is affiliated with Organization for the Promotion of Islam. Government-run news agencies contributed only 31 percent, and other media (like the state broadcaster) had an 11-percent share. In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat for this story, Anvari said the main reason behind the influence of conservative news agencies stems from the fact that they are better funded, operate under fewer constraints, and enjoy superior access to news sources. Currently, no specific reformist news agency is active in Iran, and news agencies can be put in two categories: those operated under government aegis, and those run by conservatives opposed to the reformists' agenda. The Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA), which once enjoyed a reputation for independence, has seen its status decline in recent years due to financial problems. Anvari says conservative news agencies rarely face financial shortfalls, while reformist newspapers are plagued by financial and management problems are are sometimes unable to pay their employees." http://t.uani.com/1nJ73Lh

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.





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