Eye on Iran: Growing Iran Oil Exports Challenge U.S. Nuclear Sanctions

Join UANI           Top Stories Bloomberg: "Iran's oil exports have increased so far this year, according to Bloomberg calculations, a trend that threatens to violate U.S. sanctions on the Islamic Republic's main source of revenue. Shipments of Iranian crude oil and condensate have increased about 28 percent on average this year, according to an analysis of customs data from importing nations and figures from the International Energy Agency in Paris. If crude sales are up by the end of July, that would break an international accord to hold Iran's oil exports at the same level in the first half of this year that they were at in the previous six months. Questioned in Congress yesterday about possible sanctions violations, an Obama administration official who monitors Iran's oil exports said he's confident that Iranian crude shipments have remained within the limits set in a six-month agreement signed Jan. 20 that granted Iran some sanctions relief in exchange for limited nuclear concessions. 'Where we are today, we feel comfortable that the crude oil exports of Iran are remaining in the 1 million to 1.1 million barrels per day average,' Amos Hochstein, deputy assistant secretary of state for energy diplomacy, testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee... Customs and other publicly available data, though, show that Iran's exports of crude and condensates rose to an average of 1.33 million barrels a day in the first four months of this year from 1.04 million barrels a day on average in 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, asked by a reporter at an OPEC meeting in Vienna yesterday, gave a higher figure, saying the Persian Gulf producer is exporting 1.2 million barrels of crude oil and 300,000 barrels of condensate a day... Richard Mallinson, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., a London-based consultancy, said Iran is set to sell an average of more than 1.3 million barrels of crude oil and condensates a day in the first half of the year, up from last year's combined average of 1.06 million barrels, he said. 'However you choose to define it, exports are running higher than they did last year,' Mallinson said in a phone interview. 'What's become clear is that for the U.S., achieving a comprehensive deal' to curb Iran's nuclear program 'is too valuable to risk over the fact that Iran's oil exports will be more than the desired levels.'" http://t.uani.com/1qzNcfQ WashPost: "Five weeks before a deadline to broker limits on Iran's nuclear program, Iranian and American negotiators are far apart on crucial issues and digging in their heels. A sense of pessimism hangs over landmark negotiations that are among the Obama administration's highest priorities. An unusually high-level U.S. delegation met with Iranian negotiators this week in Switzerland, hoping to break an impasse over Iranian nuclear capability that makes a deal look unlikely by the July 20 deadline. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif used his English-language Twitter feed Wednesday to warn that the talks were deadlocked over restrictions that international negotiators want to apply to Iran's centrifuges." http://t.uani.com/SCyKYz Reuters: "Iran is 'busy redesigning' a planned research reactor to sharply cut its potential output of plutonium - a possible nuclear bomb fuel, a senior Iranian official said in comments that seemed to address a thorny issue in negotiations with big powers... After the latest round of talks in Vienna in May, a diplomat from one of the powers said Iran had appeared to row back on its previous openness to address Western fears about the nuclear weapons potential of Arak. Iran has since dismissed as 'ridiculous' one mooted solution to such worries. But the head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, appeared to return to a more conciliatory stance in comments to the official IRNA news agency late on Wednesday. The amount of plutonium the reactor will be able to yield will be reduced to less than 1 kg (2.2 pounds) from 9-10 kg (20-22 pounds) annually in its original design, he said. Western experts say 9-10 kg would be enough for 1-2 nuclear bombs and that Arak's capacity should be scaled back. 'We are currently busy redesigning that reactor to arrange for that alteration,' Salehi was quoted by IRNA as saying... However, Iran expert Ali Vaez said the major powers and Israel - Iran's arch foe - 'remain concerned that Iran could suddenly revert to the original design and build a reprocessing facility' needed to extract plutonium from spent reactor fuel." http://t.uani.com/SQdxdX     Nuclear Program & Negotiations The Hill: "Senate Democrats face a dilemma over whether to buck the White House and press for new sanctions on Iran with bilateral talks on a nuclear deal almost certain to drag on for at least six more months. Democrats held back on imposing tougher sanctions earlier this year after a full-court lobbying press by the White House, which argued the move would kill prospects for a historic deal. Now, with a July 20 deadline approaching that will end an interim deal on Iran's program, negotiators seem likely to ask for more time. That will force Democrats to either start a fight with the White House by pushing forward with sanctions or to back off again and risk losing leverage with Iran. Critics in both parties argue the interim deal with Iran will allow that country's nuclear program to move forward. They have said the threat of additional sanctions are necessary to put pressure on Iran to agree to a final deal. A six-month extension could serve to simply buy more time for Iran to delay, they say." http://t.uani.com/TNV02I Bloomberg: "A dispute over Iran's number of centrifuges and over the potential speed in which the Persian Gulf country can produce a nuclear weapon may derail talks between the Islamic Republic and world powers. 'A serious scrutiny of the myth of breakout may prevent it from derailing the nuclear negotiations,' Iranian Foreign MinisterMohammad Javad Zarif said in a Twitter message today.  Zarif also highlighted an Iranian report that estimates that the country's breakout capability, the time it takes to produce enough material for a nuclear weapon, is 36 months. This is considerably longer than the two months suggested by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry at a Congressional hearing last April... Iranian officials have spoken of their desire to expand their enrichment capacity to 50,000 centrifuges, compared with the 19,000 currently installed, of which about 10,000 are currently operating. Western powers want to limit Iran to a much lower number." http://t.uani.com/SCy3hF Sanctions Relief Reuters: "Chinese state-run oil trader Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp has entered a one-year supply agreement to buy Iranian South Pars condensate, in its first term contract for the light crude oil with the Middle East supplier, according to industry officials. Under the deal, the trader will lift two million barrels of condensate a month from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), according to three sources with knowledge of the agreement... Zhuhai Zhenrong's condensate agreement - equivalent to about 67,000 barrels per day (bpd) and expected to begin later this year - will be parallel to a contract between state Chinese refiner Sinopec Corp and NIOC for 70,000 bpd South Pars oil under a long-term deal. Zhuhai Zhenrong would supply the Iranian light oil to Dragon Aromatics, an independently-run petrochemicals producer with a 100,000-bpd condensate splitter at its plant in the southeastern city of Zhangzhou." http://t.uani.com/1lcKEit WSJ: "U.S. Treasury officials granted BNP Paribas permission to do limited business in Iran earlier this year, as federal prosecutors were negotiating a potentially stiff penalty to resolve the French bank's alleged violations of U.S. sanctions against Iran, Sudan and other countries, according to government records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. BNP Paribas was granted two licenses allowing the bank to conduct certain commercial and financial transactions in Iran, according to documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request. The licenses were granted in February and March as prosecutors sought to punish the bank with a hefty fine, which may ultimately exceed $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Prosecutors are also seeking a guilty plea and a restriction on the company's ability to move cash in the U.S., these people said. It is unclear why BNP sought the Iran licenses or why Treasury officials granted them at a time when authorities were seeking to punish the bank over alleged sanctions violations in that country. Treasury declined to comment." http://t.uani.com/1pMrh5l Reuters: "Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said he had met on Wednesday with Austrian oil and gas group OMV and other foreign oil companies as Tehran prepares to offer oilfields, projects and its final investment contract in November. Zanganeh, in Vienna for an OPEC meeting. He declined to name the other firms involved in the talks, held on the executive floor of an international hotel cleared of reporters. 'The companies are coming and visiting. At least they are showing that they are keen on exploring these possibilities, to get prepared for what they want to do,' a source close to the matter said." http://t.uani.com/1hR9ZnN Tehran Times: "The Chinese automaker, BIAC, plans to set up a car plant in Iran in the next year, the ISNA news agency reported on Wednesday. The representative of BIAC in Iran, whose name was not mentioned, said that the plant will be established through a joint venture between BIAC and Iranian Diar Khodro car manufacturing company. He said that the company's long-term plan is to manufacture 100,000 passenger cars in Iran by 2020, and export a number of those cars to the Middle East countries." http://t.uani.com/SQdIpw Human Rights Bloomberg: "A Facebook page seeks lashes and imprisonment for Iranian women who posted photographs of themselves without headscarves on the social media website.  The anonymous page, titled 'Identify Advocates of Debauchery in Cyber Space,' asks viewers to identify the women in the pictures. It is a rejoinder to 'Stealthy Freedoms of Iranian Women,' a campaign on Facebook that invites women to send photos of themselves with uncovered hair. Iranian conservatives see abandoning the headscarf, or hijab, as an act of defiance against Islamic republic rules. Since the 1979 revolution that brought Shiite Muslim religious leaders to power, women in Iran have been required to cover their hair and bodies in public with headscarves and loose-fitting coats." http://t.uani.com/1pnReuk ICHRI: "Narges Mohammadi, the prominent human rights defender and Deputy Head of the now-shuttered Defenders of Human Rights Center in Tehran, told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that new charges have been brought against her stemming from her March 8, 2014 meeting with the EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. Mohammadi was charged with 'propaganda against the state' and 'collusion against national security' for her meeting with Ashton at the Austrian Embassy in Tehran. She was released on $10,000 bail." http://t.uani.com/1xO0cDv ICHRI: "On June 7, 2014, Iranian documentary filmmaker and women's rights activist Mahnaz Mohammadi began serving her five-year prison sentence on charges of 'assembly and collusion against national security,' and 'propaganda against the state.' In an interview with the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran before going to Evin Prison, Mohammadi said that according to the court ruling, the principle alleged activity underpinning the national security-related charges against her was 'making a film for BBC Persian network.' 'But I have never worked with the BBC, and none of my films have ever been broadcasted on this network. I have also been charged with having relations with Aljazeera English, German and American media, Radio France International, and Voice of America.'" http://t.uani.com/1l4ymyA Domestic Politics RFE/RL: "Iranian authorities are taking steps to rein in hard-line media that have attacked efforts by Iranian President Hassan Rohani to work with the West and resolve the crisis over his country's nuclear activities. The apparent campaign taken by the authorities comes as a July 20 deadline for a lasting nuclear deal looms, and could signal attempts by Iranian leaders to reduce pressure on the country's nuclear negotiators as talks reach a critical juncture. Two senior officials have publicly warned media affiliated with the armed forces not to do things that could undermine Rohani's administration. Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's representative to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said on June 10 that media affiliated with the IRGC have not been careful enough in their coverage. Criticism of the government should be 'fair,' he added... Saeedi made the comments at a news conference three weeks after the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, warned media affiliated with the armed forces to reconsider their coverage or face action. Without naming names, Firouzabadi had said that the managing editors of media outlets should prevent the publication of news and reports that 'incite the public' and 'weaken' the administration." http://t.uani.com/1oXmNaB Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. 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