Decoding
the Obama Doctrine
|
|
|
Share:
|
Be the first of
your friends to like this.
James Jeffrey, Barack Obama's
former ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary to Iraq, has this to
say about the administration's current record in the Middle East:
"We're in a goddamn free fall."
Count the mistakes: Helping overthrow Muammar Qaddafi in Libya,
leading to anarchy and civil war. Pressuring Husni Mubarak of Egypt to
resign, then backing the Muslim Brotherhood, leading now-president Sisi
to turn toward Moscow. Alienating Washington's most stalwart ally in the
region, the Government of Israel. Dismissing ISIS as "junior
varsity" just before it seized major cities. Hailing Yemen
as a counterterrorism success just before its government was overthrown.
Alarming the Saudi authorities to the point that they put together a
military alliance against Iran. Coddling Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey,
encouraging his dictatorial tendencies. Leaving Iraq and Afghanistan
prematurely, dooming the vast American investment in those two countries.
And, most of all: Making dangerously flawed deals with the
nuclear-ambitious mullahs of Iran.
Qaddafi of Libya, an
Obama success story?
|
Is this a random series of errors by an incompetent leadership or does
some grand, if misconceived, idea stand behind the pattern? To an extent,
it's ineptitude, as when Obama bowed to the Saudi king, threatened Syria's
government over chemical weapons before changing his mind, and now sends
the U.S. military to aid Tehran in Iraq and fight it in Yemen.
But there also is a grand idea and it calls for explanation. As a man
of the left, Obama sees the United States historically having exerted a
malign influence on the outside world. Greedy corporations, an
overly-powerful military-industrial complex, a yahoo nationalism,
engrained racism, and cultural imperialism combined to render America, on
balance, a force for evil.
Being a student of community organizer Saul Alinsky, Obama did not
overtly proclaim this view but passed himself off as a patriot, though he
(and his charming
wife) did offer occasional hints of their radical
views about "fundamentally transforming the United States."
On ascending to the presidency, Obama moved slowly, uneager to spread
alarm and wanting to be reelected. By now, however, after six full years
and only his legacy to worry about, the full-blown Obama is emerging.
Saul Alinsky, the
community organizer par excellence. (And whom the author of this
article met in about 1965.)
|
The Obama Doctrine is simple and universal: Warm relations with
adversaries and cool them with friends.
Several assumptions underlie this approach: The U.S. government
morally must compensate for its prior errors. Smiling at hostile states
will inspire them to reciprocate. Using force creates more problems than
it solves. Historic U.S. allies, partners, and helpers are morally
inferior accessories. In the Middle East, this means reaching out to
revisionists (Erdoğan, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Republic of
Iran) and pushing away cooperative governments (Egypt, Israel, Saudi
Arabia).
Of these actors, two stand out: Iran and Israel. Establishing good
relations with Tehran appears to be Obama's great preoccupation. As Michael
Doran of the Hudson Institute has shown, Obama
during his entire presidency has worked toward rendering Iran what he
calls "a very successful regional power … abiding by international
norms and international rules." Contrarily, his pre-presidential
friendships with truculent anti-Zionists such as Ali Abunimah, Rashid
Khalidi, and Edward Said point to the depth of his hostility toward the
Jewish state.
The Obama Doctrine demystifies what is otherwise inscrutable. For
example, it explains why the U.S.
government blithely ignored the Iranian
supreme leader's outrageous "Death to America" yelp in
March, dismissing it as mere domestic pandering, even as Obama glommed
onto the Israeli
prime minister's near simultaneous electoral campaign comment
rejecting a two-state solution with the Palestinians during his term of
office ("we take him at his word").
Iran's Supreme Leader
Khamene'i can say most anything and Obama won't mind.
|
The doctrine also offers guidelines to predict possible developments
during Obama's remaining tenure, such as: Wretched P5+1 deals with Iran
compel Israel's government to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. Gentle
policies toward Damascus clear the way for the Assad regime to re-extend
its power. Ankara chooses to provoke a crisis in the eastern
Mediterranean over Cypriot gas and oil reserves.
The great question ahead is how, in their wisdom, the American people
will judge the Obama Doctrine when they next vote for president in 19
months. Will they repudiate his policy of shuffling and contrition, as
they comparably did in 1980 when they elected Ronald Reagan over Jimmy
Carter? Or will they choose four more years of it, thereby turning the
Obama Doctrine into the new norm and Americans into European-style
remorseful masochists?
Their verdict in 2016 has potentially world-historical implications.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org,
@DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2015 by Daniel
Pipes. All rights reserved.
This
text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an
integral whole with complete and accurate information provided about its
author, date, place of publication, and original URL.
|
No comments:
Post a Comment