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Reuters: "Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei on Wednesday approved the Iranian government's nuclear deal
with world powers but said Tehran should not yield core elements of its
nuclear program until allegations of past military dimensions had been
settled. In a letter to President Hassan Rouhani published on
Khamenei's official website, Iran's highest authority ordered the July
14 nuclear deal to be implemented, subject to certain conditions that
the Iranian parliament stipulated in a law passed last week. He said
Iran should delay sending its stockpile of enriched uranium abroad and
reconfiguring a heavy water reactor to ensure it cannot make bomb-grade
plutonium - central aspects of Iran's obligations under the deal --
until U.N. inspectors had settled the issue of whether Tehran had ever
sought nuclear weapons. 'Any action regarding Arak (reactor) and
dispatching uranium abroad ... will take place after the PMD (possible
military dimensions) file is closed,' Khamenei wrote in the letter...
Khamenei also said U.S. President Barack Obama had sent him two letters
promising America had no intention of toppling the Islamic Republic's
clerical establishment, but added that U.S. actions had proved that
'this was not true.'" http://t.uani.com/1NU2F9x
Bloomberg: "Iran will pay foreign oil
companies larger fees than it did under previous buy-back contracts to
attract $100 billion of investments needed to rebuild its energy
industry. The Gulf state, once OPEC's second-largest crude producer,
will also offer 20-year contracts on oil and natural gas projects,
Roknoddin Javadi, managing director of state-run National Iranian Oil
Company, said in an interview in Tehran. 'What's been announced so far
looks like an attractive contract -- no doubt it's a vast improvement on
the buy-back contracts,'' said Robin Mills, a Dubai-based consultant
who worked formerly for Royal Dutch Shell on projects in Iran from 1998
to 2003... New contract terms will be introduced next month, as part of
plans to boost oil production to 5.7 million barrels a day and gas
output to 1.4 billion cubic meters a day by 2021, Javadi said. 'The new
contract that we're going to present has raised the opportunity for
those who invest to be able to participate in operation and production
for a long term, let's say 20 years,' he said. 'This is the major
incentive.' Iran's previous buy-back contracts merely paid oil
companies a fixed fee over five to seven years, without giving
investors a share of a field's production in the longer term. The new
contract will link payments to oil companies to the quantity they
produce, Javadi said... 'It'll be one of the most attractive contracts
in the Middle East for the size and quality of the fields that are
being offered,' Mills said. OMV will invest in Iran if terms are flexible,
Chief Executive Officer Rainer Seele said Monday. Javadi, Seele and
executives from producers Eni, Korea Gas and contractors JGC all spoke
at the first Iranian Petroleum and Energy Club conference in Tehran.
Iran will present its new oil and gas contracts on 27-28 November in
Tehran, Javadi said." http://t.uani.com/1LErNLE
NYT: "The sanctions cases are
winding down as a political and diplomatic shift has taken hold, with
the United States easing its sanctions against Iran as part of a global
deal to stunt that nation's nuclear ambitions... But that shift will
not necessarily prevent prosecutors from building sanctions cases. The
Iran nuclear deal, for example, lifts only certain prohibitions on
Iranian entities processing transactions in dollars, legal experts say,
including the sale of rugs and some agricultural goods. 'The fact is,
other than some very narrow exceptions, Iran remains closed for
business to U.S. companies,' said Polly Greenberg, a former head of the
economic crimes bureau at the Manhattan district attorney's office who
is now running regulatory consulting at Duff & Phelps. 'It is still
a crime to use the U.S. financial system to facilitate nearly any
Iranian transaction, and businesses seeking to engage in the Iranian
market without understanding the rules do so at great peril,' she said.
Anthony J. Albanese, the acting head of the Department of Financial
Services, hinted on Tuesday that other sanctions cases were still
working through the pipeline. 'Our agency will continue to aggressively
investigate and uncover misconduct at banks meant to circumvent U.S.
sanctions laws - both past and present,' he said. Channing D. Phillips,
the United States attorney in the District of Columbia, said,
'Sanctions laws are critical to both our national security and foreign
policy interests.'" http://t.uani.com/1Gi2JgT
Nuclear
Program & Agreement
Mehr
(Iran): "The head of AEOI has told a TV program Iran will sell its
enriched uranium according to its obligations in the JCPOA. Ali Akbar
Salehi told Iran's state TV broadcaster IRIB's mid-day news program
aired live on Tuesday that an Iranian delegation was in Moscow to
finalize nuclear fuel exchange with Russia as part of the obligations
in the JCPOA. 'A second obligation is drafting the official document of
reconstructing Arak Heavy Water Complex which would be crystalized in
three papers; the first of these three was drafted few weeks ago in
Vienna and Iran, the US, and China signed and the 5+1 approved it. The
first document identifies obligations of Iran and the Sextet and a
general process of implementation,' Salehi added... On nuclear fuel
exchange, he told the program that it was in final stage in Moscow; 'we
have about 9 metric tons of enriched uranium, and we opted to sell this
amount in global markets in choosing from two options of deluding or
selling; this is a strong advantage of JCPOA for Iran,' he added,
estimating that the fuel exchange would be possible by next two months
after necessary arrangements. Salehi who was visiting Natanz nuclear
facility, said that Iran would receive natural uranium in return for
its enriched uranium." http://t.uani.com/1PAcB8k
U.S.-Iran
Relations
RFE/RL: "The face of the Iran hostage
crisis probably never envisioned the day her child would enroll at a
university in the 'Great Satan.' Yet the oldest son of Massumeh Ebtekar
-- a sitting vice president who made a name for herself as 'Mary,'
spokeswoman for the Islamic student revolutionaries who seized the U.S.
Embassy in Tehran in 1979 -- sure looks like he's living the college
dream in California. Ebtekar's son, 33-year-old Eissa Hashemi, is a
doctoral student at the Los Angeles branch of the Chicago School of
Professional Psychology, according to his LinkedIn profile... During
the hostage crisis, when 52 U.S. citizens were held captive for 444
days, 'Mary' became a familiar sight on American television... She
later married one of the core hostage takers, Mohammad Hashemi, a
former deputy intelligence minister turned businessman... But as could
be expected, Hashemi's choice has led critics to question how his
parents could allow their son to study in the country they once
regularly denounced. After all, hostility toward the United States is
one of the pillars of the Islamic establishment that Ebtekar and her
husband helped forge... Karim Sadjadpour, senior Iran analyst at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says the issue of studying
abroad is a sensitive one in the Iran. Because of the actions of
Ebtekar and her fellow hostage takers, 'tens of thousands of Iranians'
have been denied visas to visit their families or study in the United
States, Sadjadpour notes. It stings when people see officials like
Ebtekar staunchly defend the laws and values of the Islamic republic
but flaunt them when it comes to their personal lives. 'They praise the
achievements of the revolution, and attack the immorality of the U.S.,
while sending their children to live and study in the U.S.,' Sadjadpour
says." http://t.uani.com/1NnCNQg
Sanctions
Relief
FT: "The International Monetary
Fund's new report on the Middle East and Central Asia makes for
sobering reading, with a strong call for some serious belt-tightening
by several oil-rich countries. But Iran, which is heading towards
economic rehabilitation, gets a much healthier (if cautious) report
card. The IMF says the expected lifting of economic sanctions following
Iran's nuclear deal means 'the combination of positive external demand,
wealth, and terms-of-trade shocks would entail a cumulative 15 percent
increase in real GDP during the next five years relative to a baseline
scenario of sustained sanctions.'" http://t.uani.com/1GSYYcm
Bloomberg: "Iran is preparing by the end
of March to start soliciting bids from international companies for
rights to develop oil fields as the country looks ahead to the removal
of economic sanctions that have hobbled its crude production and
exports. The Persian Gulf nation, once OPEC's second-largest producer,
wants to begin organizing bids by the next Iranian calendar year
starting March 21, Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, chairman of the Oil Ministry's
Oil Contract Restructuring Committee, said Wednesday in an interview in
Tehran. It's seeking to sign oilfield-development contracts within two
years at the latest, he said. 'We have flexibility in that contract to
adjust,' he said. 'I don't think any two contracts will be the same.'
... Iran's new oil contracts will allow international companies to
invest for 20 years with the option of extending for an additional
five, Hosseini said. Companies will share in the benefit of an increase
in oil prices but must also help bear the risk of a decrease, he said.
Investors will be able to negotiate directly for contracts with Iranian
authorities and won't be limited only to bidding. Iran won't allow them
to escape their contractual obligations if sanctions are ever
re-imposed on Iran, Hosseini said, without giving details. Iran will
require oilfield investors to team up with pre-selected local partners,
he said earlier. Iran will require oilfield investors to team up with
pre-selected local partners, he said earlier. The government has
approved the new contract framework, though National Iranian Oil Co.
still must agree to it, he said. Hosseini presented the contract plan
earlier Wednesday at a conference in Tehran attended by representatives
from BP Plc, Eni SpA, Wintershall AG, Sojitz Corp. of Japan and Korea
Gas Corp. as well as Iranian contracting and production companies. Iran
plans to formally present the contract on Nov. 28-29 in Tehran, he
said." http://t.uani.com/1M6RlAn
FT: "The chief architect of
Iran's new oil contracts has said domestic companies should be entitled
to a minimum 20 per cent share of any joint venture project with
international energy majors in a post-sanctions era. Speaking on the
sidelines of an energy conference in Tehran on Wednesday, Mehdi
Hosseini told the Financial Times that while he would not dictate an
exact figure to foreign oil companies seeking to operate in Iran,
companies from the Islamic Republic would need a substantial stake.
'Naturally you would think of 20-25 or 30 per cent as a minimum
percentage,' Mr Hosseini said. 'We don't want to just give some small
share [around 5 per cent] to an Iranian company to try and make some
money. We have a long-term view.' Western companies, from Royal Dutch
Shell and Total to Lukoil and Mitsubishi, have shown interest in
investing in Iran after sanctions are lifted, hoping to tap into the
country's vast oil and gas reserves. Mr Hosseini said he hoped
partnerships between international oil companies and domestic operators
- such as engineering companies and services contractors - would help
improve their management and technological expertise. 'We want to
enhance our local capacity so that we can grow to be capable to operate
in an international market,' said Mr Hosseini." http://t.uani.com/1W5mVcM
FT: "Eni of Italy, Total of
France, BP of the UK, Gazprom and Lukoil of Russia and Mitsubishi of
Japan converged for the first big conference in Iran since world powers
agreed a deal in July to rein in the country's nuclear activities.
While sanctions still prevent the signing of contracts, the executives
said it was vital to promote their companies, rebuild relationships and
seek clues to new contracts for oil and gas investment to be announced
next month. Many were keen to play up old ties with Iran. Antonio
Vella, chief upstream officer of Eni said in a presentation he had
'been in Iran since 1957' before speaking about the oil major's
technology to revive production in Iran's older oilfields Yutaka Yamazaki,
vice-president of JGC Corporation of Japan, introduced his company to
delegates as 'your old friend' before describing its plans for
upgrading Iran's refineries... Willi Meixner, chief executive of power
and gas at Siemens, said European companies were eager to get moving,
with sanctions expected to be lifted early next year. 'It's time to
start the dialogue,' Mr Meixner said. 'Already the competition is
fierce. Look everyone is here.'" http://t.uani.com/1jAQG40
Bloomberg: "Sweden's biggest companies
and banks, including telecommunications firm Ericsson AB and truck and
bus producer Scania AB, want to invest in Iran if economic sanctions
are lifted following its nuclear agreement with world powers. 'We are
ready,' Scania spokesman Hans-Aake Danielsson said by phone Wednesday.
'If and when it takes off, Iran can be a significant market for
Scania.' Ericsson spokeswoman Karin Hallstan said in an e-mail that the
company has had customers in Iran 'for over 100 years' and plans to
'explore opportunities' with new ones as it monitors developments
following the nuclear deal... Swedish multinationals see opportunities
in health care, transportation, infrastructure, technology and energy,
according to Ylva Berg, chief executive officer of government and
industry lobby group Business Sweden. Before the sanctions were
imposed, Iran was 'a big export market for Sweden for many, many
years,' Berg said in an interview Tuesday at an investor conference in
Dubai. Now, 'all major multinational companies in Sweden, say the Big
10 plus some others, are interested in getting started as fast as it's
possible,' she said. The group's representatives are planning to visit
Iran, perhaps in December, to evaluate prospects. About 200 Swedish
investors are in Dubai this week to learn about opportunities in the
region, including in Iran, she said... 'Five or six years ago, Iran was
one of our five largest markets for buses,' Scania's Danielsson said.
'There is a large pent-up demand, but if the sanctions are lifted it
will probably take some time before it takes off.' ... Swedish exports
to Iran could be seven times higher once sanctions are lifted, said
Daniel Lorentzon, vice president and client executive of bank relations
at Swedbank AB. The bank wants to provide financing for exporters and
is also examining how it could enter Iran once restrictions are lifted,
he said... Other companies expressing an interest in Iran at the Dubai
conference included Swiss-Swedish power transformer producer ABB Ltd,
and Danish banking group Danske Bank A/S. For Tullinge, Sweden-based
Bactiguard AB, the challenge isn't getting products to Iran, but
getting paid for them, according to the company's director of marketing
Nina Nilsson. Bactiguard has been shipping medical devices to Iran for
the past two years through a local distributor." http://t.uani.com/1W49gx8
AP: "The Swiss government says it
plans 'in principle' to ease sanctions against Iran in line with the
European Union and the United Nations following an international accord
on Tehran's nuclear program. The Federal Council said Wednesday it has
instructed the Economy Ministry to prepare changes to the measures
taken against the Islamic republic, which 'open new perspectives for
cooperation with Iran.' ... The Swiss government said its sanctions
would remain until Iran carried out an 'action plan' outlined in that
accord." http://t.uani.com/1W5jYJ7
Syria
Conflict
Reuters: "Iran held a public funeral
on Tuesday for a senior paramilitary fighter killed fighting in Syria,
the fourth commander to die this month as Tehran intensifies its
support for President Bashar al-Assad against insurgents. Nader Hamid
died in a Syrian hospital last week of gunshot wounds sustained in a
gunbattle several days earlier, Iranian agencies reported. He was a
member of the Basij, the volunteer arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC). Iranian fighters have been arriving in Syria to
reinforce Syrian government troops in an offensive in the contested
northern city of Aleppo and other insurgent-held areas. Two regular
IRGC senior officers were killed in an undisclosed part of Syria on
Oct. 12, and a top IRGC general was killed near Aleppo on Oct. 8,
according to the Tasnim news agency which is close to the Guards."
http://t.uani.com/1PGqhxH
Reuters: "At least three Russians
fighting alongside Syrian government forces were killed and several
more wounded when a shell hit their position in the coastal province of
Latakia, a senior pro-government military source said on Tuesday. If
confirmed, the deaths which occurred on Monday night would be the first
known incidence of Russians being killed in Syria since Moscow began
air strikes in support of President Bashar al-Assad on September
30." http://t.uani.com/1jAIRvf
Human
Rights
RFE/RL: "A renowned Russian Internet
entrepreneur who created a mobile messaging app popular in Iran said
Iranian authorities temporarily blocked the app after his company
refused their demands to help them 'spy on their citizens.' Pavel
Durov, the enigmatic founder of Russia's most popular social-networking
site, Vkontakte, said on Twitter on October 20 that Iran's Ministry of
Information and Communications Technology demanded that the app, called
Telegram, provide the ministry 'with spying and censorship tools.' 'We
ignored the demand, they blocked us,' Durov wrote. Late October 20,
after word of the blockage was publicized, Durov tweeted that 'Telegram
traffic is no longer limited in Iran after a week's interference
and...2 hours full blocking.' ... Following Durov's claim on October 20
that Iranian authorities had blocked Telegram, Internet researcher
Colin Anderson told RFE/RL that Tehran has a record of making social
media applications 'unusable.' 'This is one of the thing that the
Iranian government has a history of doing which is not necessarily
completely blocking access to, but making a service unusable,' said
Anderson, who is based in Washington, D.C. 'So it's a more subtle way of
getting what you want, which is to coerce people into other services or
disrupt access.'" http://t.uani.com/1jALSfc
Foreign
Affairs
Reuters: "Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani will visit Italy next month, his first trip to a European Union
capital, and also meet Pope Francis, a diplomatic source said on
Wednesday. The source said the visit would take place Nov. 14-15 and
that Rouhani would meet the pope, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi
and President Sergio Mattarella. The Iranian leader is expected in
Paris on Nov. 16-18. Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni invited
Rouhani to Rome last August during a trip to Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1QSZdtr
Opinion
& Analysis
WashPost
Editorial:
"As they concluded the nuclear deal with Iran in July, President
Obama and Secretary of State John F. Kerry repeatedly suggested that it
could open the way to cooperation with Tehran in resolving regional
conflicts, beginning with the civil war in Syria. They also promised
the United States would push back if Iran instead stepped up its
aggression. Just three months later, Iran's most notorious general is
overseeing a new offensive by thousands of Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese
fighters aimed at recapturing the Syrian city of Aleppo from rebel
forces, including some backed by the United States. Mr. Obama shows no
sign of responding. The Iranian-led offensive, which is supported by
Russian air power, appears to be the most aggressive intervention yet
by Iran in the Syrian war. The Post reported that hundreds of troops
from the elite Quds Force had been joined by thousands of Iraqi Shiite
militiamen and forces from Lebanon's Hezbollah, all under the command
of Maj.?Gen.?Qasem Soleimani, who previously directed attacks on U.S.
forces in Iraq. Far from accepting appeals from Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry
to help broker a diplomatic settlement, Iran has joined with Russia to
entrench the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and help it to
recapture Aleppo and other parts of the country. The attack is one of
several provocative steps Tehran has taken as the nuclear deal has begun
to come into effect. The same day the accord was debated by its
parliament this month, the regime test-fired a nuclear-capable missile,
violating a U.N. Security Council resolution. The White House
acknowledged the infraction but pointed out that it was outside the
bounds of the nuclear agreement. Also that day, Iranian television
reported that The Post's Jason Rezaian had been convicted on espionage
charges after a closed trial. The administration condemned the verdict.
On Sunday, the United States and its European partners began taking
steps to implement the nuclear accord. Much is now required of Iran: It
must place 12,000 centrifuges into storage, ship 12?tons of enriched
uranium out of the country and demolish the core of a plutonium reactor
before it can receive the more than $100 billion in assets frozen under
sanctions. It could be that the missile test and unjust conviction of
Mr. Rezaian are the regime's demonstration that its nuclear concessions
will not change its hostile stance toward the West or its military
ambitions. If so, it is a cruel tactic that uses Mr. Rezaian, a
professional journalist and American citizen, as a human pawn. But the
Syrian offensive is certainly more than message-sending. If successful,
it could eliminate the chance to construct a moderate, secular
alternative to the Assad regime, and send hundreds of thousands more
refugees across Syria's borders. It was just such aggression that
Mr.?Obama acknowledged might be a byproduct of the nuclear deal - and
that he vowed to resist. If he remains passive as Maj. Gen. Soleimani's
forces press forward, both Iranian and U.S. allies across the Middle
East will conclude that there will be no U.S. check on an Iranian push
for regional hegemony." http://t.uani.com/1LLpBFL
Ray
Takeyh in Politico:
"Congress failed to stop the Iran nuclear agreement, but it
shouldn't give up now on taking a tougher line with Tehran. On the
contrary, it is time for Congress to intervene seriously in an area
where the Obama administration has feared to go and where Capitol Hill
has carried major weight in the past: human rights. One of the curious
aspects of the Obama presidency is its marked reluctance to criticize
the Islamic Republic for its domestic abuses. In pursuit of its arms
control agreement, the administration convinced itself that it had to
be deferential to the sensibilities of Iran's paranoid rulers. As the
White House exempted itself from judgment, the Islamist regime jailed
dissidents, rigged elections, censored the media and set records for
executions. Most recently it 'convicted' Washington Post reporter Jason
Rezaian on trumped-up charges. No one has a greater ability to inspire
dissidents than an American president embracing their cause. Ronald
Reagan's speeches highlighting the Soviet Union's mistreatment of its
citizens did much to galvanize the forces of change behind the iron
curtain. A determined human rights strategy must involve presidential
commitment to similar type of rhetoric. But absent any such effort from
President Barack Obama, Congress should step in. Congressmen and
senators should use their own podiums to denounce Iran's human rights
violations and highlight the cases of dissidents. Congress should
spearhead its own set of sanctions such as designating the
Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. The Democrats who
voted for the Iran deal and the White House that pressed them to do so
have all insisted that a nuclear deal does not mean ignoring Iran's
domestic repression. It is time to call both the White House and the
Democratic Caucus to account. Such activism would be consistent with
the history of congressional leadership on human rights issues.
Historically, the executive branch has moved on human rights only when
prodded by Congress... Symbolism has its purposes, but punitive
measures cannot be excluded from consideration. The United States
should target its sanctions against those in Iran most responsible for
repression, terrorism and regional aggression, the Revolutionary Guards
and their vast business conglomerates. The Guards' substantial business
holdings in areas such as automotive, telecommunications, energy,
construction, engineering, shipping and air transportation should be
subject to not just U.S. but secondary sanctions. This would imply that
any foreign firms engaging in business dealings with such entities
would lose their access to the American market. The best manner of
facilitating such a step would be to designate the Guards as a Foreign
Terrorist Organization, thus making any international transaction with
them an illicit one, and to greatly expand human rights designations of
Guard officials under existing executive and statutory authorities.
Congress should also establish an independent, bipartisan human-rights
commission that would hold hearings and conduct its own investigations.
Such a commission would not just highlight the dismal situation in Iran
but would also hold the executive branch responsible for conceiving and
implementing a human rights strategy. Indeed, such a congressional
mandate may even presage greater collaboration between the executive
and legislative branches. Once the administration is put on notice that
Congress takes the issue of human rights seriously and is prepared to
enact sanctions to ensure Iranian compliance, then the administration
is likely to be more active in forging policy initiatives. Only such
congressional advocacy can shed light on the Islamic Republic's darkest
corners. There was always a misplaced hope that an arms control accord
would pave the way for a more humane Iran. Somehow closet moderates
free from the shadow of a nuclear stalemate would take helm of the
state and press it toward more pragmatic directions. This is unlikely
to happen. It is entirely possible that even a more robust human rights
strategy will yield little from a regime that relies on repression to
prolong its rule. However, at the very least, such measures would place
America on the right side of history." http://t.uani.com/1MEapGR
Aaron
David Miller in WSJ:
"The notion that the Iranian nuclear agreement might lead Iran to
moderate was always a long-term bet. And the Obama Administration's
argument that even without that moderation an Iran with a nuclear
weapon (or close to one) was far more dangerous than a Tehran without
one is a logical and rational conclusion. But what is clear now is that
Islamic Republic regime is not moderating its repressive and
authoritarian character but consolidating it. Here's why. Iran is now
more involved in supporting the Assad regime than ever before. Qasem
Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guards al-Quds force is personally
directing a coordinated effort with Russia, the regime, Hezbollah and
pro-Iranian Iraqi Shia militias, to take back Aleppo. The Iran, Russia,
Assad alliance is a new and likely enduring Middle East reality. Last
week, even as Iran began to take steps to implement the nuclear accord,
Tehran tested a new guided long range ballistic missile. The new system
is an upgrade in Iran's Shihab-3 missiles, in that it can be directed
toward its target and may have the capacity to carry nuclear warheads. The
test may have already violated the terms of the nuclear agreement and
UN Security Council resolutions, but the reality is that Iran remains
determined to upgrade its military capacity and increase its ability to
throw its weight around the regime - hardly an encouraging sign of
moderate predispositions. If there was hope that the fate of Washington
Post reporter Jason Rezaian would be shaped positively by the nuclear
accord, his conviction for spying last week and the political tick-tock
in Iranian politics that followed suggests otherwise... Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei and other Iranian hardliners want to make it almost
impossible to improve U.S.-Iranian relations, and preventing a deal for
the Americans Tehran is holding will do precisely that. The length of
the nuclear accord is anywhere from 10 to 25 years depending on the
sunset provisions, and we certainly can't rule out changes in Iran's
behavior at home and abroad. I'd simply suggest a few things that argue
against a steady, let alone quick, evolution in the character of this
regime. First, the Supreme Leader agreed to this deal because he wanted
to consolidate the revolution not weaken it. He is aware of the popular
discontent over the country's economic malaise, international
isolation, and repressive social structure. Seeking economic relief
from sanctions and improving the economy so that the Iranian public
benefits is smart and will ensure regime longevity. Second, it's
impossible to separate Iran's quest for a weapon or its desire to be a
screwdriver's turn away from one from the way the regime perceives
itself and its regional ambitions. A nuclear weapon isn't merely a
discretionary foreign policy add-on, but is basic to a regime that sees
itself as threatened, desires a hedge against regime change, and wants
to enhance its power in the region. If Iran doesn't moderate, its
desire to remain a putative nuclear weapons state will remain an
important part of its national security agenda. Based on what we know
now, prospects of such fundamental change are scan indeed. If the past
is any guide, highly ideological regimes - see China, Vietnam, the
former Soviet Union and Cuba - have proven adept at opening up
economically but still retaining authoritarian and repressive control.
Anyone who thinks Iran is on a linear course to moderation ought to lay
down until the feeling passes." http://t.uani.com/1KolBp6
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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