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AP: "Amid
fears of an atomic arms race in the Middle East, a senior United Arab
Emirates official has told a top U.S. lawmaker that it too might seek
the right to enrich uranium that Iran has asserted under the recently
signed nuclear deal. The landmark Iran accord to curb its nuclear
weapons in exchange for economic sanctions relief allows Tehran to
enrich uranium. In barely noticed testimony last month, Rep. Ed Royce,
chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the UAE's
ambassador in Washington, Yousef al-Otaiba, had informed him in a
telephone call that the country no longer felt bound by its previous
nuclear agreement with the United States. 'He told me, Your worst enemy
has achieved this right to enrich. It's a right to enrich now that your
friends are going to want, too, and we won't be the only country,'
Royce, a California Republican, said in a phone interview with The
Associated Press, elaborating on his testimony... In a 2009 pact with
the UAE, the United States agreed to share materials, technology and
equipment for producing nuclear energy. In the accord - known as a 123
Agreement - the UAE made a bold pledge not to enrich uranium or
reprocess spent fuel to extract plutonium, two pathways to an atomic
weapon... However, Royce said al-Otaiba told him that the UAE 'no
longer felt bound' by those provisions of the agreement. While he said
al-Otaiba did not explicitly state that his country was walking away
from them, Royce said, 'I took that to mean that they had the right to
do that and that it was under consideration.' ... The UAE's pledge not
to enrich has been dubbed the 'gold standard' in 123 Agreements." http://t.uani.com/1hIJvVv
IranWire: "Security
agents have arrested an Iranian-American businessman in Tehran,
IranWire has learned. A dozen plainclothes agents raided the family
home of the businessman, who was visiting Iran, earlier this week.
According to IranWire's source, they ransacked the house, confiscated
property, and took the dual national to Evin Prison. The news coincided
with reports of Iranian-Americans being hacked. Several
Iranian-Americans and US-based Iranian experts reported that they
received suspicious emails sent from the businessman's account. This
follows similar attacks on associates of a European-based Iranian
businessman who had traveled to Iran to visit family and look into
possible business opportunities as Iran and the P5+1 move toward
finalizing the nuclear deal approved in July." http://t.uani.com/1GKihV6
Reuters:
"Iran has met a deadline to give the U.N. nuclear watchdog
information it needs to assess whether Tehran sought to develop nuclear
weapons in the past, the agency said on Thursday, a step towards
carrying out a deal between Tehran and world powers. The apparent
progress reported in the longstanding U.N. investigation coincided with
increasing Western disquiet over Iran's test of a ballistic missile
this week in defiance of a U.N. ban, a move France said sent a
disconcerting message. It also followed an unusual broadcast by Iranian
state television of footage of an underground tunnel crammed with
missiles and launchers that appeared to signal Tehran's determination
to expand its large missile inventory... Under a roadmap agreement
reached parallel to the Vienna deal, Iran had to provide by Thursday
the cooperation necessary for the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) to complete an assessment of Iran's nuclear work by Dec. 15...
The investigation is now due to move into a phase in which the agency
assesses the materials provided by Iran, including environmental
samples at the Parchin military site, which IAEA Director General
Yukiya Amano visited last month. One of the questions the IAEA aims to
resolve is whether Iran carried out high-explosives testing at Parchin
applicable to making a nuclear warhead. Last month's visit was the
IAEA's first access to Parchin in a decade." http://t.uani.com/1LP2QfK
Nuclear Program & Agreement
Mehr (Iran):
"Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) said that
an Iranian delegation will be leaving for Vienna today and JCPOA will
most probably be ratified on Monday... Following the approval, the EU
will announce all the sanctions against Iran to be lifted, he said and
added 'The president of the United States will also officially announce
lifting of some sanctions while some other will be suspended.' 'The
exact date of JCPOA's implementation depends on the commitments of Iran
and the steps it takes regarding Natanz and Fordo which will possibly
take two months.'" http://t.uani.com/1OyJx0O
Mehr (Iran):
"Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani signed and handed the law
on JCPOA, dubbed 'Iranian Government's Reciprocal and Proportional
Action' to President Rouhani for implementation. Iran's 12-member
Guardian Council ratified the bill to implement the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Wednesday, which was approved earlier by the
Iranian Parliament on Tuesday. In a letter to President Rouhani,
written this morning by Ali Larijani, the law was handed to the
President for implementation. The provisions of the bill
set out certain obligations that the administration has to observe in
the implementation of the JCPOA." http://t.uani.com/1VWRZeE
LAT:
"The landmark international nuclear agreement with Iran comes into
force Sunday with some key questions about implementation still
unanswered. The U.S. and five other world powers will begin taking
steps that, over the next half a year or so, will remove economic
sanctions on Iran as it rolls back nuclear activities to prevent it
from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Both the Iranian and U.S. governments
appear strongly committed to following through on the deal, reached
July 14 in Vienna after a dozen years of negotiations. Yet they still
haven't sorted out all the tricky questions on how Iran's nuclear
program will be monitored, how fully sanctions will be eased, and how
harshly violations of the rules will be dealt with by world powers,
among other issues. Disagreements on these could lead to continuing
battles and delays in implementation, though they're not expected to
sink the agreement, diplomats and outside experts say. 'There are
potentially contentious issues in there,' said Gary Samore, a former
arms control advisor to President Obama who is now executive director
for research at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science
and International Affairs." http://t.uani.com/1QAi64p
The Hill:
"Senators are pushing the Obama administration to say how it plans
to respond to a ballistic missile test by Iran. Sens. Kelly Ayotte
(R-N.H.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) sent a letter to President Obama about
the long-range missile test that Iran conducted over the weekend, which
they called 'troubling.' 'We are interested to know how your administration
will respond. We worry that tough statements followed by inaction will
further undermine U.S. national security,' the two senators wrote. The
letter comes after administration officials acknowledged that Iran
'likely' violated a United Nations resolution with the test. The
administration is expected to bring up the incident at the U.N.
Security Council, which would then determine if Iran violated a
resolution on missile activities. Kirk and Ayotte said they want to
know whether Obama believes that Iran violated the resolution, how he
plans to respond and whether he will commit to not lifting sanctions
related to the U.N. resolution. The two Republicans also want to know
the administration's strategy behind treating the missile program as
separate from Iran's nuclear weapons program, which the senators call a
'flawed argument.'" http://t.uani.com/1QAko3t
U.S.-Iran Relations
Fars (Iran):
"Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Brigadier
General Massoud Jazzayeri blasted the western countries for supporting
the Takfiri terrorist groups, and said that the West has created the
ISIL for the sake of maintaining the security of Israel. 'Today by looking
at this issue (of terrorism) from every angle, we see the Americans
standing behind the scene of ISIL terrorism in the region; they do this
to sway away threats from Israel,' General Jazzayeri said on Friday,
addressing the funeral procession ceremony held for two Iranian
military commanders killed in Syria. He pointed to Iran's military
counseling services for Syria and the martyrdom of Iranian military
commanders in the Arab country, and said, 'Were it not because of
Iran's wisdom, Syria would not be in the hands of the Americans and
Israelis...'" http://t.uani.com/1ZIuBRB
Sanctions Relief
Press TV (Iran):
"Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak will visit Iran on Oct.
21 at the head of a large economic delegation to discuss expansion of
bilateral trade. In Tehran, Novak will meet Iran's Minister of
Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh and other officials as the two countries seek
to increase bilateral trade to $10 billion a year from $2 billion at
present. According to Iran's Ambassador to Moscow Mehdi Sanaei, the two
sides will pay special attention to Iran's energy resources in their
talks." http://t.uani.com/1hIPGJt
Syria Conflict
Reuters:
"Syrian troops backed by Hezbollah and Iranian fighters launched
an offensive south of Aleppo on Friday, expanding the army's
counter-attack against rebels across western Syria with support from
Russian air strikes. The assault means the army is now pressing
insurgents on several fronts near Syria's main cities in the west,
control of which would secure President Bashar al-Assad's hold on power
even if the east of the country is still held by Islamic State... 'This
is the promised battle,' a senior military source in Syria said of the
offensive backed by hundreds of Hezbollah and Iranian forces which he
said had made some gains on the ground. It was the first time Iranian
fighters had taken part on such a scale in the Syrian conflict, he
said, although their numbers were modest compared to the army force.
'The main core is the Syrian army,' the source said." http://t.uani.com/1KdgAzR
Human Rights
IranWire: "Iranian
filmmaker Keyvan Karimi has been sentenced to six years in prison and
223 lashes. After almost two years of hearings, Karimi received his
verdict on Tuesday, October 13. The filmmaker was arrested on December
14, 2013 at his home and taken to Evin Prison's Ward 2A controlled by
the Revolutionary Guards. He spent 12 days in solitary confinement,
after which he was released on bail. Charges against Karimi included
'insulting the sacred,' 'propaganda against the regime' and 'illicit
relations' because he shook hands with a woman to whom he was not
related. According to his lawyer, Amir Raeesian, the charges of
'insulting the sacred' and 'propaganda against the regime' were in
response to his latest documentary, even it had not been publicly
screened. 'This documentary has not been distributed or seen by
audiences, but it was the basis for the charges and the verdict,'
Raeesian says." http://t.uani.com/1PwZcgp
Foreign Affairs
Tasnim (Iran):
"Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is slated to pay an official
visit to Italy next month to hold talks with senior officials of the
European country, which is euro zone's third biggest economy.
Heading a high-ranking delegation, President Rouhani will make the trip
to Italy on November 14, the Italian newspaper La Stampa reported on
Thursday. This will be the first trip by the Iranian president to a
European country since he took office in 2013. Rouhani also plans to pay
a visit to Paris from November 16 to 18 for meeting with high-ranking
French officials." http://t.uani.com/1KdtopV
Opinion & Analysis
UANI Advisory Board Member Henry
Sokolski in NRO: "In our eagerness to
clamp down on Iran's uranium-enrichment and potential
plutonium-production activities relating to its small heavy-water
reactor, both those in favor and those opposed to the Iran deal have
glossed over what prompted our worries in the first place: the
possibility of military diversions from the light-water power reactor
(LWR) at Bushehr. If we want to close the door on possible nuclear
Irans elsewhere, we'd be wise to turn our attention to the proliferation
risks such power reactors pose. The good news is that what might help
most in addressing these risks - remote automated surveillance that can
be updated 24/7 - is something the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) has already secured at Natanz and many of the other nuclear
sites it inspects around the globe. The problem is that we haven't yet
insisted on such surveillance at Bushehr and apparently are not
inclined to do so. It's difficult to understand why. Originally, in the
early 1990s, Iran's power-reactor project was a key focus of
international concern. The administrations of Bill Clinton and both the
Bushes initially did all they could to prevent its completion, not only
because it was serving as a cover for other nuclear-weapons-related
activities (e.g., uranium enrichment, the transfer of weapon design
information, and heavy-water-reactor technology and hardware), but also
because the reactor itself was seen as a potential source of
nuclear-weapons-explosive plutonium. When it became clear, however,
that Bushehr was likely to be completed and that any hope of securing
Russian assistance in limiting Iran's uranium-enrichment and
heavy-water-reactor projects turned on grandfathering Bushehr, top Bush
officials decided in 2007 to make the concession. After this, what was
done at Bushehr was treated as an intrinsically 'peaceful' activity.
Even the politicians and governments most suspicious of Iran and
critical of the Iran deal - George W. Bush, the French, and Benjamin
Netanyahu - now accept the legitimacy of Iran's present and future
'peaceful' power reactors. Because such critics of the deal did not
demand that there be additional surveillance of Bushehr, those focused
on closing the deal didn't ask. After all, LWRs were deemed to be
unambiguously 'peaceful.' ... Three years ago, Iran emptied all of the
fuel from Bushehr after only a few months of operation. The Wall Street
Journal reported that the spent fuel it emptied had enough weapon-grade
plutonium to make as many as 24 weapons. The Iranians had complained to
the United Nations that the U.S. flew drones around Bushehr on at least
seven separate occasions shortly after the fuel had been emptied. The
unstated concern was that Iran might move the plutonium-laden spent
fuel to a hidden plant to strip the plutonium out. This suggests that
clandestine reprocessing plants for LWR fuel are a serious
possibility." http://t.uani.com/1OIxL2k
Shirin Ebadi in Politico:
"Following the international agreement on Iran's nuclear program
and in anticipation of the lifting of most economic sanctions against
Iran, delegation after delegation of government officials has shuttled
between Tehran and European capitals looking to discuss new diplomatic
and economic ties. And while the nuclear deal is a significant
achievement for peace and diplomacy, supported by me and many in the
Iranian human rights community, there is still concern that the 'Open
for Business' sign hanging on Iran's front door will allow for ongoing
human rights abuses to continue unabated. European governments must not
let their eagerness to re-engage with Iran and its markets overshadow
the urgent human rights reforms desperately needed within the country.
Instead, the same emerging diplomatic and economic channels should be
utilized to hold Iran accountable for its abominable human rights
record. Ending global isolation will likely be good for many ordinary
Iranians. Still, as Europe begins to trade with Iran, it cannot assume
that engagement alone, while positive, will fundamentally improve the
lives of the people. Iran is still a country where journalists and
lawyers go to prison for doing their jobs, women cannot travel or seek
employment without the consent of their husbands, floggings and
amputations are conducted (and done so in public), and people are put
to death at a more frequent rate than virtually anywhere else.
Moreover, human right abuses often implicate the business community, in
terms of state surveillance programs embedded in the IT sector,
discriminatory policies that lead to the closing of businesses owned by
members of the Baha'i faith, and systemic corruption that goes largely
unchecked. If the EU and other European governments want to ensure that
increased diplomatic and economic cooperation with Iran will also
improve, and not exacerbate, the country's human rights situation, they
must do four main things. They must maintain a focus on Iran at the
United Nations; supplement multilateral efforts with strategic
bilateral dialogue; work closely with Iranian civil society; and
establish standards for business and social responsibility... Finally,
any European business venture in Iran must establish standards for
social responsibility. When Nokia-Siemens provided telecommunications
technology to Iran a few years ago, it was used to track, monitor and
arrest activists - some of whom spent years in prison as a result.
Siemens and other European companies looking to re-enter Iranian
markets have an obligation to ensure their businesses won't contribute
to the Iranian government's human rights abuses as outlined in the U.N.
Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. Moreover, the European
Parliament and individual governments should also establish human
rights reporting requirements for firms working in Iran. These
requirements would encourage businesses to evaluate the human rights
impact of their trade with Iran and report that assessment in a
transparent manner. In the end, investors also will benefit from the
stability and openness that human rights reforms, especially those that
strengthen the rule of law, will bring. The lure of economic engagement
with Iran right now is massive. For many in Europe, now is the time to
turn the page on the heightened political tensions of the last decade.
I hope that Europe can see past the noticeable financial appeal, and
view this era as an opportunity to help the many in Iran who cannot yet
enjoy basic human freedoms, despite nuclear compromise. If we let Iran
off the hook now, there may not be another chance." http://t.uani.com/1QAkS9O
Shane Harris in The Daily Beast:
"The Tehran regime didn't just convict Washington Post journalist
Jason Rezaian this week on opaque, unspecified charges that his
employer has called 'sick' and baseless. Iran has also dangled the
possibility of swapping the reporter and two other imprisoned Americans
for 19 Iranians being held in the United States. The question is, who
are they? The Iranians have never publicly named the individuals, but
have said that they are accused of violating sanctions put in place to
curb Iran's nuclear program. Two U.S. officials told The Daily Beast that,
to their knowledge, Tehran has never presented the American government
with a list of people it wants freed. But a review by The Daily Beast
of court documents and interviews with legal experts and U.S. officials
shows that there are at least 19 people in the United States-and
probably a few more-who meet Iran's stated descriptions, and who could
end up human bargaining chips if the Obama administration were to try
and cut a deal to bring its citizens home. The White House, it should
be noted, hasn't explicitly ruled out a prisoner swap. And not all of
the Iranians held here a part of some rogues gallery of spies and
hardened criminals. Many are business owners and American citizens.
With the exception of two individuals, none is serving a term longer than
six years. Most were sentenced to terms between one and four years. And
some were charged with violating a complex sanctions regime that they
professed in court not to fully understand... While U.S. officials said
they're focused on the return of all the Americans with no strings
attached, the potential for a swap has taken on new traction following
comments by Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, who told reporters last
month that he would work for the Americans' release if the U.S. set the
Iranians free. And on Sunday, a spokesman for the Iranian justice
ministry noted that Rezaian's verdict was 'not final' and could still
be appealed, an apparent signal that Iran was willing to make a deal.
The Daily Beast identified 26 recent sanctions violators who are Iranian
citizens or Americans of Iranian descent. At least three have already
served their sentences, and another three are awaiting trial. Ferrari
said that while he hasn't seen an official list, the number 19 that
Iran has floated was about the total number of sanctions violators in
U.S. custody... To be sure, there are Iranians in the U.S. serving
lengthy sentences for serious crimes, including stealing military
secrets and information about weapons systems. Perhaps the most
notorious prisoner, Mansour Arbabsiar, was sentenced in 2013 to 25
years for his role in a failed plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia's
ambassador to the U.S. at a posh Washington, D.C. restaurant. But many
of the sanctions violators who can be found in public court documents
will be freed in a few years. And they didn't commit violent crimes.
That might make them prime candidates for a swap... There may be a
precedent for a prisoner exchange. In 2009, Iran secretly passed the
White House names of prisoners it wanted freed as a way of testing
President Obama's commitment to improving ties between the two
countries, the Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. eventually helped
with the release of four Iranians detained in the U.S. and the United
Kingdom, including a convicted arms smuggler, a former diplomat, and a
scientist convicted of illegal exports, and the moves helped bring
about negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, the Journal reported.
'Rouhani may be making this appeal today because it may have worked
earlier,' David Albright and Andrea Stricker, of the Institute for
Science and International Security, wrote in a recent report. And while
the authors said that while a swap might bring more Americans home, it
would ultiamtely be counterproductive. Rouhani's officer 'is at best a cynical
ploy that on the surface, may appear diplomatically convenient, but the
reality is that pursuing these types of exchanges will only encourage
Iran to detain more innocent Americans.'" http://t.uani.com/1GhHWcN
A. Savyon and Y. Carmon in MEMRI:
"On October 13, 2015 the Iranian Majlis approved, by a majority of
161-59 with 13 abstentions, not the JCPOA but rather an Iranian amended
version it. Paragraph 3 of the Majlis decision states that 'the
government will monitor any non-performance by the other party [to the
agreement] in the matter of failing to lift the sanctions, or restoring
the canceled sanctions, or imposing sanctions for any another reason,
and will take steps to actualize the rights of the Iranian nation and
to terminate the voluntary cooperation [this apparently refers to the
Additional Protocol, which, according to the JCPOA, Iran will implement
voluntarily] and to handle the rapid expansion of the Iranian nuclear
program for peaceful purposes, so that within two years the enrichment
potential in Iran will reach 190,000 SWU. The Supreme National Security
Council will handle this matter, and the government will to submit to
the Council a plan in the matter within four months.' Given that the
non-cancellation of the sanctions is part of the JCPOA (according to
the JCPOA, U.S. sanctions will be merely 'suspended,' rather than
canceled, so as to allow their 'snapback' in the case of an Iranian violation);
and given that the re-imposition of sanctions, and the imposition of
new sanctions, in case of an Iranian violation are likewise part of the
JCPOA, it follows that the Majlis decision constitutes ratification of
a nonexistent document. It was not a ratification of the JCPOA as it
stands, but rather of additional demands made by Iran after the JCPOA
was agreed upon on July 14, 2015 in Vienna. Furthermore, the inclusion
of these new Iranian demands in a Majlis decision constitutes the first
written demand by an Iranian authority to amend the agreement, a demand
that was mentioned verbally on September 3, 2015 by Iran's Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei. The Majlis decision defines clauses in the JCPOA
as 'non-performance of the agreement by the other party' and therefore
the Majlis' approval is meaningless." http://t.uani.com/1LoBwWs
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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