Opportunistic
Erdogan Tries to Leverage EU Membership From Refugee Crisis
by Abigail R. Esman
Special to IPT News
October 9, 2015
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 He has called for a
new, religious Muslim generation and is building it. He has said that women are not equal to men, imprisoned dozens of journalists, and has come close to
starting a new civil war in his own country. Now
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a proposal for Europe: We'll
take more refugees if you make us members of the EU.
To date, Turkey has taken in about 2.5 million Syrian refugees, at a
cost of over €7 billion, by most estimates. Europe, by contrast, has given
shelter to fewer than 500,000. Now, the EU sits poised to take in millions
more – potentially 1.5 million to be settled in Germany alone, despite
political controversy about their arrival. Many of those refugees, who are
fleeing ISIS in Syria and Iraq, arrive in Europe illicitly via the
Turkish-Greek border, making Turkish cooperation in Europe's efforts to
stem the tide of asylum seekers critical.
During talks in Brussels on Oct. 5, Erdogan expressed willingness to
cooperate – for a price. He wants visa-free travel of Turkish citizens
through Europe (never mind that such an arrangement would also presumably
allow Turkish members of the PKK, a terrorist group, also to enter Europe
visa-free); he wants a "safe zone" for Syrian refugees on the
Turkish-Syrian border, where they can be settled, if only temporarily, and
a "no-fly" zone over the area; he wants Turkey to be named a
"safe third country"; and he wants stalled discussions about
Turkey's EU membership to restart.
The reasoning behind this demand is clear: with new elections slated for
Nov. 1 in Turkey and his numbers falling in the polls, Erdogan needs to
show both diplomacy and strength. Being designated a "safe third
country" would establish (inaccurately) that his Turkey is a
democracy. "The EU defines a safe country, to where migrants can be
deported, as one with 'a democratic system, no persecution, no torture or
inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, no threat of violence and no
armed conflict,'" the Guardian reports.
More importantly, getting the EU to bend to his requests would be a sign
of his machismo no one could overlook, while sending a signal to his
opponents that he is still the man who can best represent Turkey to the
world.
Then there's the money. Turkey's economy is in freefall. The lira in
recent months has hit historic lows against the dollar and the euro
(currently trading at nearly three liras to the dollar and 3.5 to the
euro). That €7 billion in costs for housing refugees comes to more than ₺25 billion– not insignificant given the
country's ₺89
billion debt. EU membership means, of course, not only the possibility
of EU currency and monetary exchanges, but EU funds.
But the European community, fighting as it is about paying Greece's
bills, is hardly about to take on anyone else's. Europeans are certainly
unlikely to take up the costs of Turkey's refugees when they are already
struggling to find a way to pay for the ones Turkey is allowing to
penetrate Europe's borders. And previous concerns about Turkey's human
rights record under Erdogan have only worsened in recent years. Exactly
what makes Erdogan then think that Europe will welcome his country now?
The answer is obvious: ISIS. Erdogan wants EU and U.S. support in
fighting ISIS and at the same time in deposing Bashar Assad. The EU and
U.S. want Turkey's support in fighting ISIS and managing the refugee crisis
– a crisis that has ballooned into inter-European infighting, the erection
of razor wire fences, and overall political confusion.
Europe needs Turkey's cooperation. And it is prepared to negotiate
heavily to get it. "The European Union is ready to take up all issues
with Turkey," European Council President Donald Tusk said in the
Brussels talks.
But just how far? With Turkey as part of Europe, ISIS would be
fighting on Europe's own borders. Even a perfect Turkish state would have
trouble getting into the EU under such conditions.
Tayyip Erdogan, however, is accustomed to getting his way, or else. Hence
some now are expressing
concerns that if he doesn't get what he's asking for, he will simply
release hordes of Syrian refugees through Europe's gates. He has, as one
Dutch newspaper noted,
now handed Europe a strong and bitter pill. One can only hope it has
the courage not to take it.
Abigail R. Esman, the author, most recently, of Radical State: How Jihad Is Winning Over Democracy in
the West (Praeger, 2010), is a freelance writer based in New
York and the Netherlands.
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