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Reuters: "More than two months after
international nuclear sanctions on Iran were supposed to have ended,
frustration is deepening that few trade deals are going through as
foreign banks shy away from processing transactions with the country.
Iranian hopes of rapidly ending the country's economic isolation are
fading as particularly European banks - some of which have already been
hit by hit huge U.S. fines for sanctions busting - fear falling foul of
the many other restrictions imposed by Washington that remain in force.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accused the United States of
foot-dragging following the official implementation in January of a
nuclear deal with major powers. 'The Americans have not acted on their
promises and (only) removed the sanctions on paper,' he said in a
televised address on Sunday, complaining that international financial
transactions faced problems because banks 'fear the Americans'...
Agreements on a number of major contracts have been announced with
great fanfare, with Tehran hoping relief from the crippling sanctions
will lead to billions of dollars in trade and investment, reviving the
economy and raising Iranians' living standards. However, significant
sums have yet to start flowing... The Iranian business community believes
the United States has failed to spell out exactly what is permitted and
what is not, leading to the uncertainty that makes international banks
reluctant to process Iranian-linked transactions. 'We have to try to
put pressure on America to make this issue clear. Otherwise, removing
the sanctions does not mean anything,' said Ferial Mostofi, chairwoman
of privately-owned Iranian project management firm KDD Group. KDD
Group, which is active in sectors including iron, steel and mining, has
noticed greater business interest from abroad, she said, but so far no
deals have been concluded. 'If the banking situation stays as today,
definitely we shall be facing problems for the payments,' said Mostofi,
who also chairs the Investment Commission at the Iran Chamber of
Commerce... Since January, Iran has struck agreements worth an
estimated $50 billion with countries including Italy, Japan, South
Korea, Russia, Germany and others involving trade, project finance and
other investment. Agreements include a contract to buy 118 Airbus jets
worth $27 billion. However, the funding needed to turn agreements into
firm deals is another matter. One Airbus executive told a conference in
Paris last month that 'we only see the back of banks at the moment',
telling them: 'Don't be afraid!' Banks remain deterred by a $9 billion
U.S. fine on BNP Paribas in 2014 for violating U.S. financial sanctions
and other penalties, and the head of the French banking federation told
the conference that lenders had yet to be assured of 'complete legal
security and clarity'. That will be tough as long as Washington keeps
the ban on processing dollar transactions for Iran in the U.S. system.
'Until U.S. sanctions are lifted European banks with major operations
in the States, of which there are many, will still be exposed to
onerous trade restrictions unless they can prove complete separation of
European and U.S. divisions of their business,' said George Booth, a
partner at law firm Pinsent Masons. 'That's easier said than done. It
should not be underestimated the level of internal restructuring
required to satisfy this criteria,' said Booth, who advises firms
hoping to do business with Iran." http://t.uani.com/1RkKTtc
Reuters: "The United States is not
standing in the way of foreign banks doing business with Iran, a senior
U.S. official said on Wednesday, but his comments appeared unlikely to
satisfy frustrated businessmen and Iranian officials... Chris Backemeyer,
Principal Deputy Coordinator for Sanctions Policy at the U.S.
Department of State, said U.S. officials were meeting business leaders
around the world to assure them that Washington was complying with the
nuclear agreement. 'We've tried to make it 100 percent clear,'
Backemeyer told reporters in Dubai, where he was meeting local and
international companies to explain what the U.S. saw as legitimate
business with Iran and what it viewed as illegitimate. He said that
while U.S. banks were still banned from dealing with Iran as part of a
trade embargo that remains in place - effectively blocking U.S. dollar
transactions, since they would ultimately be cleared in the United
States - Washington would not penalize foreign banks for doing business
in other currencies. However, Backemeyer also said foreign banks would
need to demonstrate they had performed due diligence to ensure they
were not doing business with sanctioned entities in Iran, such as
companies linked to the Revolutionary Guards. That appeared unlikely to
reassure bankers from Europe, the Middle East and other countries, who
say the remaining sanctions are so complex, and the risks of errors in
due diligence so high, that they still don't dare to engage with Iran.
'It's all very well for the U.S. government to say this, but the
reality is that it's still dangerous ground to do business with Iran as
an international bank,' said a foreign banker in Dubai when asked about
Backemeyer's comments. 'The large international banks have a low risk
appetite because of the legacy of fines and deferred prosecution
arrangements against them, and it would take a lot for them to change
their position.' ... He said Washington could not tell individual
companies how much due diligence they should do to insulate themselves
from remaining U.S. sanctions, because that would depend on the nature
of their business. 'Banks, because they have to be used for any sort of
financial transaction, by definition have the potential to get exposed
to all sorts of risks,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1MC6yLf
Reuters: "Ship insurers have stepped
in to help plug a shortfall in cover for transporting Iranian oil
resulting from the fact that U.S. reinsurers are still restrained by
Washington's sanctions, according to officials involved in the
initiative. International oil and shipping companies have been eager to
boost business with Iran since international sanctions related to its
nuclear program were lifted in January, but securing proper insurance
cover has been among the stumbling blocks in recent weeks. The
insurers' move will benefit Iran as it seeks to further ramp up
production and exports. An Iranian official said on Tuesday that
exports had risen by 900,000 barrels per day to 2.2 million bpd in the
past two months. That creates a need for cover that U.S.-domiciled reinsurers
cannot fill as they remain barred from trading with Iran under separate
U.S. financial sanctions that remain in place. The gap in third-party
liability insurance and pollution cover for vessels has been addressed
through this week's initiative by the International Group of Protection
and Indemnity (P&I) clubs, which brings together leading marine
insurers owned by shipping clients and reinsured internationally. The
International Group has created a 'fall-back' of $500 million
additional coverage per ship for Iranian oil at no extra cost to the
members, the Japan P&I Club said on Tuesday. This raises the
default insurance coverage for tankers carrying Iranian oil to $580
million per ship from $80 million. Mike Salthouse, deputy global
director with the North of England P&I Association, told Reuters:
'We have produced a sticking plaster to tide us over.' Nonetheless, the
wider financing problems faced by Iran - as international banks still
remain wary of dealing with it - are still expected to have an impact.
'For even a routine claim, I expect it to be quite difficult to process
the payment for Iran,' Salthouse said. 'Because sanctions are enforced
so robustly, everyone is acutely aware of their obligations and there
is a huge amount of caution in dealing with anything Iranian.' Although
$580 million coverage is still less than 10 percent of the normal
liability coverage of $7.8 billion per ship, Asian shippers such as
China, India and South Korea, and some shippers in Europe, may find
that enough to transport Iranian oil, an official with Japan P&I
Club said." http://t.uani.com/1T6bjmW
U.S.-Iran
Relations
AP: "Two months after the
implementation of last year's landmark nuclear agreement, a U.S.
diplomat is on an unlikely mission - promoting Iran to firms that want
to tap into its massive market but fear other sanctions, or that the
next American president could scrap the deal. It's not an easy task for
Chris Backemeyer or other Americans on the equivalent of a nuclear deal
roadshow, especially as Iran's Revolutionary Guard continues to fire
off ballistic missiles and U.S. Republican presidential candidates vow
to tear up the pact if elected. Despite the political risks in both
countries, Backemeyer said the deal to lift sanctions in exchange for
limiting Iran's ability to enrich uranium will prevent the country from
being able to build a nuclear weapon, and is likely to survive the
contentious debate of the campaign season. 'Throughout our history,
there's been a lot of arms-control agreements and nuclear agreements
that have been violently opposed by whatever party was not in the
office at the time, and most of them have lived with them afterwards,'
said Backemeyer, the U.S. State Department's principal deputy
coordinator for sanctions policy. 'While they may think they can get a
better deal, (or) could have gotten a better deal, walking away from
one that's working isn't wise.' ... In order to ease the concerns of
business, Backemeyer and other State Department officials have met with
companies in Dubai and elsewhere... Still, some companies remain
hesitant. Chicago-based airplane manufacturer Boeing Co. likely would
want to sell airplanes and parts to Iran, something specifically
allowed under the nuclear deal, but said earlier this month it only
would offer 'commercial passenger aircraft fleet planning with Iranian
airlines approved by the U.S. government.' Asked about Boeing,
Backemeyer said the company appeared to be 'considering their options
and that, I think, is a good thing.' ... Backemeyer said the U.S.
remained committed to the deal, and that his mission is aimed not only
at reassuring businesses, but also the Iranians. 'If we don't do this,
it's easy for narratives to spring that we are in some way opposed to
real sanctions relief,' he said. 'We are 100-percent committed to
fulfilling our obligations under the (deal) and we are in no way trying
to stand in the way of legitimate business activity in Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1UMzKpn
Free
Beacon: "The
Obama administration has spent three years engaged in secret talks with
Iran that resulted in the payment of nearly $2 billion in taxpayer
funds to the Islamic Republic, with more payouts likely to come in the
future, according to a recent letter issued by the State Department and
obtained exclusively by the Washington Free Beacon. The
administration's disclosure came in response to an inquiry launched in
January by Rep. Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.), who was seeking further
information about the Obama administration's payment of $1.7 billion in
taxpayer funds to Iran, which many viewed as a 'ransom payment' for
Iran's release that month of several U.S. hostages. The
administration's official response to Pompeo was sent earlier this
week, just days after a Free Beacon report detailing a months-long
State Department effort to stall the lawmaker's inquiry. 'We apologize for
the delay in responding,' Julia Frifield, an assistant secretary for
legislative affairs, states in the letter's opening. Obama
administration officials first began talks to settle a number of
outstanding legal claims leveled against the United States by Iran in
2014. The administration predicts that more taxpayer-funded payments
are likely to be granted to the Islamic Republic in the future,
according to the letter. Frifield in her letter goes on to defend the
$1.7 billion payment to Iran and discloses that the administration is
open to providing Tehran with more money if it is willing to settle
these decades-old legal disputes with the United States. 'We are
confident that this was a good settlement for the American taxpayer,'
the State Department said." http://t.uani.com/1Zstlk7
Business
Risk
Times
of London:
"David Cameron has rebuked Barclays for hampering companies trying
to export to Iran as ministers prepare for a high-level trade mission.
In a strongly worded letter to Jes Staley, the bank's chief executive,
the prime minister said that it appeared to be operating 'in opposition
to the policy of the UK government'. Barclays is refusing to process
customers' payments from Iranian entities, despite EU and UN sanctions
having been lifted." http://t.uani.com/1pI6apT
Sanctions
Relief
Platts: "As the race to get a share
of the Iranian oil products market heats up, Geneva-based Vitol has
unloaded a gasoline cargo in the Persian Gulf country, trader and
shipping sources said Wednesday. Vitol delivered a 35,000-mt gasoline
cargo last week to Iran on the 40,165-dwt Alessandra Bottiglieri, an
Italian-flagged medium range tanker, sources said. The cargo was loaded
at the UAE port of Fujairah and discharged at Iran's Bandar Shahid
Rajaee terminal in Bandar Abbas, they said... Last month,
Switzerland-based Gunvor's shipping arm Clearlake fixed a MR tanker,
the Maersk Messian, to load 35,000 mt of gasoline from Fujairah for
delivery into Bandar Abbas... Vitol paid around $260,000 for the
Alessandra Bottiglieri, and Clearlake paid around $290,000 for the
Maersk Messina, according to sources. There is a freight premium for
Iran voyages because some shipowners are reluctant to participate in
Iran-related business, particularly if their companies operate in or
have links such as insurance, re-insurance and listing in the US."
http://t.uani.com/1Ry2RaI
Reuters: "Oil minister Dharmendra
Pradhan will push for state-run firms to win development rights for the
vast Farzad B gas field in Iran during a visit to that country next
month... Pradhan said he is 'hopeful' a deal on Farzad B could be
concluded during his visit to Tehran on April 9-10. 'In Iran our
primary interest is in E&P (exploration and production). We have
old engagements with Iran and we continued to buy oil from Iran in
difficult times,' Pradhan told reporters. A consortium headed by ONGC
Videsh, the overseas exploration unit of Oil and Natural Gas Corp,
discovered the Farzad B gas field in the Farsi offshore block in 2008, but
was unable to get permission to develop it due to Western sanctions
against Iran over its nuclear programme. ONGC Videsh last year
submitted a $3 billion field development plan to Iranian authorities to
develop Farzad B, which is estimated to hold initial in-place reserves
of 12.5 trillion cubic feet, with a lifetime of 30 years." http://t.uani.com/1XMIBqF
Reuters: "The U.S. government will
give Chinese telecom equipment and smartphone maker ZTE Corp a
three-month reprieve on tough export restrictions it imposed this
month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The department on March
8 imposed some of the toughest-ever U.S. export restrictions on ZTE for
allegedly breaking U.S. sanctions against Iran. The agency said it
would ease the restrictions until June 30. Experts had said the
restrictions would have caused disruption across ZTE's sprawling global
supply chain. The restrictions would have banned U.S. companies from
exporting to ZTE any technology, software or equipment such as chips
and processors made in the United States." http://t.uani.com/1UFXooR
Cambridge
News:
"'Prepare properly and start early' if you want to do business in
Iran now that sanctions have been lifted, says John Cronin, pictured,
chairman of Cyan, one of the first UK companies to do a deal there.
'The more preparation you do the better and, as with any growing
market, responsiveness and agility are high priorities. Working with
local partners and businesses (and doing your homework to ensure you
are working with the right ones) is crucial for navigating the local
customs and market challenges. 'Once you have these relationships in
place, make sure you have allowed sufficient time for visa applications
and the like if you need to travel out to the country. This may sound
obvious, but it is amazing how long these things can take.' Cyan, which
is in smart metering and lighting technology, won a contract from
Iranian telecoms contractor Micromodje for a 2,000 unit smart metering
implementation, which will be fitted into street traffic cameras."
http://t.uani.com/1U8N1dc
Saudi-Iran
Tensions
AFP: "Saudi security forces have
arrested a Shiite preacher accused of glorifying Lebanon's Iran-backed
militant group Hezbollah, a newspaper reported on Tuesday. Hussein
al-Radi was detained after Gulf Arab states declared Hezbollah a
'terrorist' group earlier this month and brought in tough new measures
against anyone supporting it. The Al-Watan daily reported that security
forces arrested Radi, from the Al-Ahsa oasis region in Eastern
Province. 'This is after he glorified the terrorist group Hezbollah and
insulted the kingdom in a video clip that has been shared' online, the
report said." http://t.uani.com/1Rz8ITo
Human
Rights
IranWire: "On Tuesday March 8, Behzad
Zabihi Mahforouzaki, a member of Iran's Baha'i minority, was arrested
for the fourth time in the past five years. Zabihi, a resident of the
city of Sari in northern Iran, owned a shop that sold eyeglasses. On
the day of his arrest, authorities also closed down his shop for the
third time. Mahforouzaki spent seven days in a detention center run by
Sari's Intelligence Bureau, before being released on bail of 90 million
tomans ($30,000). Zabihi says he was arrested illegally and subjected
to torture and insults. He also say he was pressured to abandon the
Baha'i faith. His family was prevented from visiting him in jail. The
following report is based on Zabihi's account of those seven
days." http://t.uani.com/1RgmhFg
Opinion
& Analysis
Reps.
Joe Kennedy III (D-MA) & Ted Deutch (D-FL) in Times of Israel: "As Members of Congress who
took opposing votes on the nuclear deal with Iran, we remain united in
our commitment to preventing any Iranian actions that threaten regional
and international security. Since 2006, United Nations Security Council
(UNSC) Resolutions have constrained Iran's development of a nuclear
program and of the ballistic missile systems capable of delivering
nuclear weapons. While implementation of the nuclear deal means that
Iran might no longer stand on the threshold of weaponization, it does
not end the risks Iran poses to the United States and to our allies.
Left untouched by the nuclear accord are the regime's ongoing support
for terrorist organizations, violations of human rights, and illegal
development of ballistic missile technology. In October 2015, Iran
conducted a ballistic missile launch in clear violation of UNSC
Resolution 1929, flaunting the very technology that could be used to
carry a nuclear weapon beyond its borders. The United States confirmed
this test and U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power presented
evidence of the launch to the Security Council. At that time, we wrote
a letter to President Obama urging the U.S. to take unilateral action
if the UN refused to act. The Security Council affirmed the violation
but took no further action, and Iran again launched another missile
test in November 2015. Following this second test, we introduced
bipartisan legislation that would set out a procedure for Congress to
fast track new sanctions legislation if Iran conducts illegal launches
or commits acts of terror. Our legislation would do two key things.
First, it would affirm that non-nuclear sanctions can be imposed at any
time for non-nuclear offenses, making clear that nothing in the nuclear
deal prevents the United States from applying future sanctions on Iran
related to terrorism, human rights, and ballistic missile technology.
These new sanctions would be outside the scope of the nuclear deal and
would not give the Government of Iran any cause to back away from its
commitments under the JCPOA. Second, the bill would allow Congress to
quickly consider and impose new sanctions without procedural delay if
Iran commits acts of terror that threaten American interests, provides
support for terrorist organizations that do the same, or acquires
ballistic missile technology in violation of UN Security Council
resolutions. From its introduction, the bill has received bipartisan
support from members of Congress who both supported and opposed the
JCPOA. In January, the United States imposed sanctions on 11
individuals and entities involved in Iran's ballistic missile program
and the October launch. Yet just last week, Iran launched two more
missile tests on consecutive days in flagrant violation of UNSC
Resolution 2231. It is increasingly clear that Iran's hard-liners have
no intention of abiding by international law. As a senior IRGC
commander said last week, 'Iran's missile program will not stop under
any circumstances. ... The IRGC has never accepted the U.N. Security
Council resolutions on Iran's missile work.' If the Security Council
refuses to take action against these repeated violations, it is time
for the United States to increase unilateral sanctions on Iran. More
pressure is needed on those who aid and abet Iran's illicit ballistic
missile program, on the persons that facilitate the transfer of
ballistic missile technology and on the entities that transfer funds
for Iranian procurement. Now is the time to pass our bipartisan
legislation so that Congress can fast track sanctions against Iran for
illegal missile activity." http://t.uani.com/1o6oPtS
Peter
Harrell in The Hill:
"With Iran's recent launch of advanced ballistic missiles, Iranian
hardliners are testing the resolve of the U.S. and our partners to
confront Iranian aggression that challenges the nuclear agreement that
came into effect earlier this year. A forceful U.S. and international
response to the Iranian missile tests is not only consistent with the
nuclear agreement-it will increase the odds that the nuclear agreement
itself remains durable over time. The U.S. Congress, which is currently
developing potential sanctions bills, is right to demand action on this
issue. Iran's decision to test the resolve of the U.S. and our allies
is no surprise. Iran has a lengthy history of testing the U.S. and our
allies, and it was clear throughout the nuclear negotiations that Iran
would continue to test the international community's resolve after the
deal came into force. This is precisely why a forceful sanctions
response is so important: A weak response will encourage the Iranians
to continue testing the boundaries of the nuclear agreement, setting up
a situation where Iran believes it can gradually walk away from its
nuclear commitments without meaningful consequences. A forceful
response, on the other hand, will send a clear signal that there is
zero tolerance for violations and discourage further Iranian cheating.
The Obama Administration has rightly said that it would seek a response
to the Iranian ballistic missile test at the U.N. Security Council, but
the Russians have already suggested that they will likely block a
meaningful U.N. response, arguing that the missile test exists in a legal
grey area under the agreement. The U.S. and our allies should make
clear that we move forward with sanctions in the near term even if the
Russians and other counties block U.N. action. What should a forceful
sanctions response look like? First, the U.S. and our partners need to
impose sanctions with real economic teeth. Some policymakers may be
tempted to resolve the current situation by sending a symbolic message
to Iran while avoiding antagonizing international partners, for example
by imposing a narrow set of sanctions against individual Iranian
military officials or small Iranian defense companies involved in the
missile program. But these kinds of sanctions rarely have meaningful
economic bite, since most Iranian officials and defense companies have
few economic ties to the U.S. or our allies. The Iranians would rightly
perceive such sanctions as a largely symbolic message that refrained
from imposing real costs on Tehran. Such sanctions would be unlikely to
deter further Iranian aggression or prevent them from further testing
the limits of the nuclear deal... The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC)-the division of the Iranian government behind the missile
tests-has important business interests in Iran's construction and
mining sectors, and U.S. officials could significantly expand the
number of IRGC-linked companies in these sectors subject to U.S. and
international sanctions. U.S. officials could also begin to tee up a
set of tougher sanctions, such as financial sanctions, that would be
imposed if Iran continues its missile tests, to signal that the U.S.
and are partners are prepared to escalate further... for the deal to
remain credible, the U.S. and our partners need to make sure Iran
understands that the consequences for cheating are severe." http://t.uani.com/25mujCP
Ann M.
Simmons in LAT:
"Even as it is being welcomed back into the international
community, Iran is continuing to violate the most basic civil and
political rights of its people and needs continued monitoring,
advocates who are pushing for greater freedoms in the Islamic Republic
contend. The activists, including dozens of international human rights
groups, insist Iran has continued a disturbing pattern of abuses
including increased executions and decreased opportunities for women.
To force change, they have called on the United Nations Human Rights
Council to renew its agreement with a special rapporteur, Ahmed
Shaheed, to continue monitoring and reporting on the human rights
situation in the country. The council could vote Thursday or earlier to
extend monitoring... 'If Iran's [special rapporteur] mandate is not
renewed - despite its ongoing widespread, gross and systematic abuses -
this would only be a result of Tehran's political influence and
backroom deal-making,' said Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N.
Watch." http://t.uani.com/1S630CI
Ian J.
Stewart in The Diplomat: "On February 1, 2016, Sihai Cheng was sentenced to
nine years in prison after pleading guilty to six charges related to
the diversion of U.S.-manufactured pressure transducers to Iran. The
plea brings to an end a lengthy legal process that started with an
indictment in 2013. Cheng is one of two individuals who have faced
justice over the diversion of a substantial number of specialist
pressure transducers to Iran's uranium enrichment program. Shortly
after Cheng entered his guilty plea, and shortly before his sentencing,
charges were dropped against Cheng's Iranian conspirator as part of a
prisoner exchange timed to coincide with the implementation of the Iran
nuclear deal. The case thus raises questions about the deterrence
messages being sent to would-be middle men and proliferators. It also
highlights yet again a critical weakness in the non-proliferation
regime related to the procurement of goods from specialist suppliers
via non-state actors has not yet been addressed. Addressing this
challenge in order to detect and prevent such trade is vital if the
Iran deal is to be successfully implemented over the next decade...
Prosecutions for export control violations are relatively rare. The
fact that two individuals have been brought to justice in this case,
which relates to a substantial diversion of particularly sensitive
instruments, is to be welcomed. On closer look, however, the case
highlights numerous gaps and limitations in the non-proliferation
regime. In the context of implementation of the JCPOA, it is vital not
only that efforts to enforce export controls and investigate possible
violations continue, but that they be ramped up. Fail to do so may
derail the JCPOA's chances of constraining Iran's nuclear program."
http://t.uani.com/1pI6h4T
Rep.
Ted Poe (R-Texas) in The Hill: "A satellite flying in space over the American Super
Bowl, unprovoked missile launches, the test of a so-called hydrogen
bomb and threats to destroy Manhattan. This is just a snapshot of what
North Korea has been up to this year alone. Although the
circumstances and truth surrounding each of these actions remain murky,
it's probably safe to assume that Iranian experts were on site to
witness these latest violations of international law. Why? Because
Iranian scientists have been present at nearly every major North Korean
missile test for decades. The history of the strategic alliance between
Iran and North Korea stretches back decades to the aftermath of Iran's
1979 Islamic Revolution... In the aftermath of the JCPOA, the danger
from the Iran-North Korea strategic alliance is even greater. Iran has
already begun to receive billions of dollars as the result of this deal
and cash-strapped North Korea would be more than willing to continue
this covert relationship. North Korea can also possibly supply Iran
with a nuclear backstop - a method to covertly continue nuclear
research and development restricted under the deal through their tried
and true secret procurement channels. Iran can then follow in the
footsteps of its North Korean partner - agree to the deal for sanctions
relief and then breakout when convenient. In eight years' time, Iran
will also be able to freely work on its ballistic missile program. If
Iran was able to develop its ballistic missile in secret thanks to its
North Korean friends, one can only imagine what it will be able to
achieve after the ban on its ballistic missile program is lifted. We
must also remember that this strong relationship between Iran and North
Korea was forged in secrecy - we do not even know the full extent of
their collaboration. What we do know, however, is that now that the
world has given the Iranian nuclear program a stamp of approval,
officials in both Tehran and Pyongyang are cashing in. The questions
remains - how long will we let these two enemies of the United States
inch closer to nuclear wear? And as developments keep coming out of the
Korean Peninsula, we can only ask: what's next?" http://t.uani.com/22vRjA4
Aaron
Arnold in The Diplomat: "For Iran's president Hassan Rouhani, negotiating
the nuclear agreement in exchange for sanctions relief was but one step
in turning around the country's economic woes. While a decade of
financial and economic isolation has taken its toll on the country's
banking system, populist policies under former president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, like forcing banks to provide cheap capital, have left the
country undercapitalized with a high percentage of non-performing
loans-as high as 20 percent, according to some estimates. Not
surprisingly, foreign banks are not rushing into Iranian markets at the
rate many expected, and this could spell trouble for the nuclear
agreement in the long-run. This presents a dilemma for U.S.
policymakers: proceeding with the conventional wisdom and keeping Iran
isolated and economically weak risks destabilizing the agreement.
Although counterintuitive, moving forward with a global anti-money
laundering and terrorist financing strategy that will help Iran's banks
reintegrate into the international financial system can help ensure the
long-run stability of the agreement, and has the added bonus of
increasing leverage over Iran should snapback sanctions be
required." http://t.uani.com/1RgpFjC
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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