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TOP STORIES
The implementation of a landmark nuclear agreement
between Iran and world powers is still fragile, the head of the U.N.
agency that polices Iran's side of the deal has said, warning that
small mistakes could have grave consequences... "The implementation
of the agreement is still fragile," International Atomic Energy
Agency chief Yukiya Amano said in an interview with the German news
agency DPA published on Friday before a trip to Germany. "Small
technical mistakes, small failures in implementation can become big
political issues that could have a large negative influence on the
agreement," he added... "There is little trust," Amano
said, referring to the United States and Iran.
But the reality is that Mr. Assad's side is
increasingly just as fragmented as its opponents, a panoply of forces
aligned partly along sectarian lines but with often-competing
approaches and interests. There are Iraqi Shiite militiamen cheering
for clerics who liken the enemy to foes from seventh-century battles.
There are Iranian Revolutionary Guards fighting on behalf of a Shiite
theocracy. There are Afghan refugees hoping to gain citizenship in
Iran, and Hezbollah militants whose leaders have long vowed to fight
"wherever needed." ... At least one elite Syrian Army unit
has been filmed seizing positions in Aleppo, but the bulk of the
pro-government force is made up militiamen trained and financed by
Iran... Also fighting are Iranian troops and recruits from Iran's
sizable Afghan refugee population. The Iranian government has been
increasingly open about the fact that these are not only advisers, as
they were long portrayed. At least 400 Iranians and Afghans from Iran
have died "defending the shrines" in Iraq and Syria, as the
government describes it. In June, at least a dozen members of Iran's
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps - some of them high-ranking - died
in battles near Aleppo, and around that time some regular Iranian
Army troops headed for Syria.
A bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pressing the
White House to oppose Iran's bid to join the World Trade
Organization, citing concern that admission could constrain U.S.
ability to impose future sanctions on Iran... In a letter sent
Thursday, GOP Reps. Peter Roskam of Illinois and Dave Reichert of
Washington and Democratic Reps. Juan Vargas of California and Grace
Meng of New York urged U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman to
resist Iran's efforts to join the international group. "In
addition to further empowering and enriching Iran's tyrannical
regime, Iranian accession to the WTO could seriously complicate our
ability to combat Iran's support for terrorism, human rights
violations, ballistic missile program and other illicit
activity," the lawmakers wrote.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE
PROGRAM
The Obama administration gutted an international
ballistic missile embargo on Iran as one of several concessions made
when the Islamic Republic released four American prisoners in
January, Iran experts tell THE WEEKLY STANDARD. This has triggered
criticism that the administration misled Congress about its
commitment to limiting Iran's missile development... Experts told THE
WEEKLY STANDARD that the administration's decision to back the
lifting of U.N. sanctions on Bank Sepah makes it all but impossible
to enforce an international embargo meant to prevent Iran from
developing ballistic missiles.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
In a September 25, 2016 speech to a Tehran political
circle, Mohsen Rafighdoost, who was minister of the Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War and
who heads the Noor Foundation,[1] said that the secret of the victory
of Iran's Islamic Revolution was Iranians' total obedience to the
leader. He said that today the IRGC ground forces are "five
times better" than the U.S. Army, and that the Iranian regime is
capable of deploying nine million troops against it in less than 10
days. Rafighdoost added that Iran's missiles in Tehran and the
northwest of the country can reach Tel Aviv, and expressed his
yearning for Israel to launch a missile at Iran so that Iran could
"flatten Tel Aviv."
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
A Republican senator is asking for all documents
related to the Obama administration's controversial January decision
to support lifting sanctions on two Iranian banks. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)
in a Thursday letter asked the State Department and Department of the
Treasury to release records regarding Bank Sepah and subsidiary Bank
Sepah International's release from United Nations sanctions.
Republicans have accused the administration of paying a
"ransom" after the U.S. paid Iran $1.7 billion in cash to
settle a decades-old lawsuit soon after a prisoner swap... In his
letter to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Secretary of State John
Kerry, Cotton wrote the sanctions relief "will create a strong
incentive for Iran and other malign actors around the world to
capture and detain Americans for use as bargaining chips."
BUSINESS RISK
With last year's historic nuclear deal lifting some
Western sanctions on Iran, Japanese companies are tiptoeing back to
the Middle Eastern country, torn between the lure of business
opportunities and high geopolitical risks. About 30 Japanese
businesses took part in the Tehran International Industry Exhibition,
which opened Wednesday in the Iranian capital. More than 700 foreign
companies -- many of them Chinese and German -- have exhibits at the
show, according to the Japan External Trade Organization. That is up
twofold from last year, underscoring rising competition among
international businesses for a slice of the under-cultivated
market... "Even though there is demand and potential, we need to
proceed cautiously," says Hisanori Kanou, JFE Engineering's
president. Japanese companies stand to lose out if they sit idle.
Still, deciding to move ahead with projects despite uncertainty will
not be easy.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Citroen cars will roll off an assembly line in Iran
starting from 2018, under a deal between French automaker PSA and
Iran's SAIPA finalised on Thursday, PSA said. The joint venture, in
which PSA and SAIPA will each have a 50 percent stake, will see cars
produced at a plant in Kashan, some 200 kilometres (120 miles) south
of the capital Tehran... The Kashan plant is used to produce Citroen
cars but has not made one since the start of the decade. The two
firms plan to invest "more than 300 million euros ($335 million)
in manufacturing and R&D capacity over the next five years,"
PSA said in a statement. The move follows PSA's 400-million-euro deal
in June with Khodro to build 200,000 Peugeot vehicles a year in Iran
by 2018.
Iran will play a "central" role in French
carmaker PSA's strategic plans for the Middle East, the head of the
manufacturing group said Wednesday on his first visit to the country.
"Iran is central to the implementation of the strategic growth
plan of the PSA group," Carlos Tavares said during a visit to
its local partner, Iran Khodro. The trip cemented a 400 million-euro
($448 million) deal signed in June for the two companies to resume
their old partnership, which was cut short by international sanctions
in 2012... June's 50-50 deal created IKAP (Iran Khodro Automobiles
Peugeot) which plans to produce three vehicle types, starting in 2017
with the small urban 4x4 Peugeot 2008. The mid-size 301 and small
five-door 208 will follow shortly after. PSA aims to reach 200,000
units by 2021, and it hopes to meet the Iranian government's wish of
exporting 30 percent of the production. "Iran is going to be the
No. 1 sourcing base for this region," Tavares said, reiterating
PSA's goal of selling a million units across the Middle East by 2025.
"When we reach that number in 2025, 75 percent of this
production will be produced in the region ... and of course Iran will
be the No. 1 producer," he added.
Tehran Wastewater Company has signed a contract, worth
€125 million ($140 million), with Turkey's industrial and
construction contractor Kuzu Group on building a wastewater treatment
plant in southwest Tehran. The project will be funded by the Islamic
Development Bank (IDB), Asqar Riazati, managing director of Tehran
Wastewater Company, was quoted as saying by IRNA on Tuesday.
"Kuzu Group was awarded the project in an international
tender," the official said without providing details. He added
that the IDB has verified the tender.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iran's Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali
Tayyebnia has left Tehran for Washington DC to attend the World Bank
Group's annual meeting. Tayyebnia is expected to hold talks with his
counterparts from several countries including MENA (Middle East and
North Africa) group, Fars news agency reported Oct. 6. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) will host the 2016 annual meetings
of the IMF and the World Bank Group on Oct. 7-9 in Washington DC.
Vietnam and Iran pledged Thursday to boost future
trade to $2 billion, as Tehran seeks to jump-start its sputtering
economy after crippling international sanctions were lifted this
year... "The two sides agreed to increase bilateral trade
turnover to $2 billion," the Iranian president told reporters in
Hanoi. Trade between Iran and Vietnam hit $350 million last year,
according to Iran's official IRNA news agency... After Vietnam,
Rouhani heads to Malaysia and Thailand before returning home, Iranian
state media said.
When Germany's Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister
Sigmar Gabriel entered Iran Oct. 2, accompanied by more than 100
German businessmen, he probably did not expect that some of his
comments would cause a minor diplomatic crisis between the two
countries and reactions in every Iranian newspaper. In an interview
with the German weekly news magazine Der Spiegel, Gabriel listed the
issues he planned to discuss with Iranian officials during his visit
to Tehran. Among the matters Gabriel brought up was Iran's role in
the war in Syria, its human rights record and how friendly relations
with Germany would only be possible once Iran recognizes Israel... In
this vein, parliament Speaker Ali Larijani - a brother of the
judiciary chief - canceled his meeting with Gabriel without providing
a reason. Later on Oct. 3, news surfaced that Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif had canceled a meeting with the visiting German
minister as well.
TERRORISM
Born in 1991, Hamza, his mother Khairiah Saber and
some of the Bin Laden clan, moved to Iran following the September 11,
2001 twin attacks. They fled to Iran following negotiations between
al-Qaeda and Tehran which hosted several al-Qaeda figures and their
families for many years. Among those hosted by was Hamza bin Laden. A
special team was tasked with shaping Hamza's ideology, vision and
approach. At a later stage, a special taskforce within Taliban
resumed training and educating him... After several years living in
Iran, al-Qaeda managed to bring Bin Laden's family members from Iran
and sent them to different places. Some went to Syria, like his son
Mohammed, while others travelled to Pakistan. Al-Qaeda succeeded at
doing so via adopting different means of pressure such as negotiating
over the release of some Iranian hostages.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Russian officials intensified their rhetoric over the
Syria crisis Thursday, saying Moscow was stepping up cooperation with
Iran and boosting its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean.
The Russian military said Thursday that a new small warship armed
with cruise missiles will join Russian's naval grouping off the coast
of Syria in the coming days, adding to Moscow's naval presence in the
region. Russia's sole aircraft carrier is also expected to join the
grouping before the end of the year. Russia also boosted contacts
with Iran over the Syria crisis. Following a meeting with his Iranian
counterpart Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail
Bogdanov said he had discussed "immediate renewal of the
coordinated international efforts aimed at an inclusive inter-Syrian
dialogue," the news agency Interfax reported.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iranian judges have ordered a young female writer and
activist to serve a six-year jail term for writing an unpublished
fictional story about stoning to death in her country. Golrokh
Ebrahimi Iraee received a phone call on Tuesday from judicial
officials ordering her to Evin prison in Tehran, where her husband,
Arash Sadeghi, a prominent student activist, is serving a 19-year
sentence. Ebrahimi Iraee told Voice of America's Persian
network this week that she had been sentenced to five years in prison
for insulting Islamic sanctities and one extra year for spreading
propaganda against the ruling system.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
The government has expanded the list of domestic
companies for work in dozens of oil and gas projects as it
gears up for its first international tender under a new model of oil
and gas contracts this month. Mohammadreza Moqaddam, deputy oil
minister for engineering, research and technology, said the ministry
has approved Ghadir Investment Company, Pasargad Development Company
(PEDC) and Petro Gohar Farasahel Kish Co. (PGFK) as contractors for
upstream oil and gas projects under the long-awaited Iran Petroleum
Contract, Shana reported on Wednesday. The first two are subsidiaries
of Saderat Bank of Iran and Bank Pasargad respectively. They join a
shortlist of eight companies and conglomerates that already have the
blessing of the government for participation in the new
projects, namely, Petropars, Oil Industries Engineering and
Construction (OIEC), Setad Ejraiye Farmane Emam, Dana Energy Company,
Petroiran, MAPNA Group, Khatam-al Anbia and the Industrial
Development and Renovation Organization of Iran (IDRO).
OPINION & ANALYSIS
On January 17, President Obama commended a trio of
nearly simultaneous breakthroughs with Iran as evidence of
"what's possible with strong American diplomacy." These
included Implementation Day, which marked the certification of Iran's
compliance with its initial obligations under the comprehensive
nuclear deal and the corresponding lifting and/or waiver of a vast
array of international sanctions on Tehran. The administration also
announced the release of five Americans detained in Iran and the
settlement of a decades-old financial dispute between the United
States and Iran. Nearly nine months later, the last of these three
developments-which generated little press at the time-has taken on a
new life. The details, however, are not yet well understood, and some
aspects of the case remain unclear. This account draws on recent
press reports and the testimony of Obama administration officials and
others at September hearings before the House Financial Services
Committee and the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban
Affairs.
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