Friday, December 14, 2018

UANI Resource: Perspectives on Lebanon and Hezbollah



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 Perspectives: Lebanon and Hezbollah 

December 14, 2018

Perspectives: Lebanon and Hezbollah is a UANI weekly resource highlighting developments in Lebanon and the activities of the terrorist group Hezbollah.  

Hezbollah and Israel

Israel's Operation Northern Shield Continues into Second Week
Israel's Operation Northern Shield - to locate and destroy Hezbollah tunnels stretching into its territory - continues into its second week. So far, Israel has revealed the existence of three tunnels, and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has confirmed two. Despite bellicose Israeli rhetoric and hints that the IDF might have to operate in Lebanon, Lebanese president Michel Aoun said Israel assured Lebanon via the United States that it had no intention to attack the country. Although an unnamed Lebanese security official attempted to downplay the issue of the tunnels - claiming they were "old and abandoned" to Al-Joumhouria - Aoun said Beirut would decide on a proper course of action after receiving the final UN report on the tunnels.

Hezbollah, which has remained silent thus far, began indirectly messaging to the Israelis this week. Its Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem, in an interview with Al-Vefagh, threatened that Hezbollah's rockets could reach anywhere in Israel. Central Council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq said the "resistance" had deterred Israel from attacking Lebanon, a sentiment repeated by another Hezbollah official, Nawwar al-Sahili. However, Hezbollah's defiant rhetoric masked the implicit message to Israel that the group is disinterested in escalation or armed conflict.

Cabinet Formation
 
No Progress on Lebanon Cabinet Formation: President's Frustration Grows
Lebanese President Michel Aoun held several meetings in Baabda this week - including with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, a Hezbollah delegation, and the pro-Hezbollah "Independent Sunnis" - in an attempt to overcome the government formation impasse. According to Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV, the Shiite group's delegation stressed to Aoun once again that the government deadlock would only be solved if the Independent Sunnis were given seats in Hariri's cabinet. Likewise, the Independent Sunnis remained committed to their position.

Aoun appears to have grown impatient with the continued delay. Since last week, he has been mulling sending a letter to parliament addressing Hariri's inability to form a government - raising the threat of parliament withdrawing its confidence in Hariri - in an attempt to pressure the premier to form a government on Aoun's terms. Aoun has also threatened to publicly call out the party responsible for the continued obstruction of the government formation process, should his recent round of talks with political factions fail. Aoun's growing frustration could be the result of the tense security situation in south Lebanon caused by Israel revealing the existence of at least three Hezbollah attack tunnels reaching into its territory.


Lebanese Foreign Relations



Hariri Travels to London
At the Lebanon-U.K. Business and Investment Forum in London, Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri promised that Lebanon would fulfill its obligations under the CEDRE conference, despite the delay in forming a government. However, Hariri expressed his confidence that Lebanon would form a government by the end of the current year. Hariri's trip, however, comes amidst growing French impatience. The French ambassador to Beirut warned last Friday that the Lebanon was in danger of losing international support and French investments.

Saudi FM: We Support Hariri, and Reject Iran and Hezbollah
During the closing of the GCC Summit in Riyadh this week, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir affirmed his country's continued support of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his attempts to form a national unity government, while stressing that Riyadh rejects "Iran's interference in Lebanon and Hezbollah's [obstructionist] role in Lebanese politics." Jubeir said all Lebanese parties should prioritize their country's interests "above all else."

Berri Objects to Syria's Exclusion from Beirut Arab Summit
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri objected to Syria's exclusion from next month's Arab Economic and Social Development Summit, to be hosted in Beirut. Berri reiterated an earlier objection that he would "not accept any Arab meeting excluding Syria." Prime Minister Saad Hariri has reportedly rejected Syria's inclusion in the summit, consistent with the Arab League decision to suspend Syria's membership in 2011.

U.S. Rebuffs Israeli Call to Sanction Lebanon Over Hezbollah Tunnels
During a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly requested that the U.S. sanction Lebanon and its army over the discovery of at least three Hezbollah tunnels from Lebanon into Israel. The U.S. reportedly rebuffed the request, refusing to equate Hezbollah with the Lebanese state. The U.S. made clear that it has close military ties with Lebanon, which it does not want to undermine but agreed to draw up harsh sanctions to financially pressure Hezbollah.

Lebanon's Health Minister: Hezbollah's Demand of Health Ministry a Risk to Lebanon
Lebanese caretaker Health Minister Ghassan Hasbani said Lebanon should carefully weigh the international community's reservations over giving Hezbollah the Health Ministry in a new government. Recent reports have indicated that the U.S. would cease working with the Ministry and the rest of Lebanon's health sector if Hezbollah is granted the Health portfolio.

Lebanese Security

Lebanese Interior Minister: Lebanon Thwarted ISIS Bombing Attack
Lebanon's Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk revealed on Monday that the Internal Security Forces (ISF) thwarted an ISIS bombing plot intended to target houses of worship, Christian gatherings, and Lebanese military posts during Lebanon's 2017 parliamentary elections. Machnouk said the bombs were smuggled into Lebanon from Syria's Idlib Province in buckets of cheese.

LAF Chief, U.K, U.S., Discuss Lebanese-Syrian Border Security Project
Lebanon Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Joseph Aoun met with British Ambassador to Lebanon Chris Rampling and U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth Richard this week to discuss progress on the project to secure the Lebanese-Syrian Border.
   







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