Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Eye on Iran: A High-Level Resignation In Iran Is Seen As Sign Of Hard-Liners' Strength



   EYE ON IRAN
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The surprise resignation of Iran's foreign minister last week was a rare public display of the jockeying between hard-liners and the more moderate camp within the clerical leadership, a divide that has been exacerbated by the country's deepening economic crisis, analysts said. Hard-liners have long had the edge. But Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's open show of frustration was a sign that he and his ally, President Hassan Rouhani, find themselves further weakened after the collapse of their biggest foreign policy project - the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States and other world powers.


The United States has sanctioned Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a radical Muslim militia group of about 10,0000 fighters, as well as its leader Akram Kaabi, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday. Active in Iraq and Syria, Nujaba, which is known by various names including the "The Movement of the Noble Ones," is also loyal to Iran. Reuters reported in 2017 that it was helping Tehran create a supply route through Iraq to Damascus, and its leaders have publicly acknowledged Iran's support.


The U.S. Representative to the Vienna Office of the United Nations and Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that Washington is looking forward "to concluding a comprehensive agreement with Iran that addresses the totality of our concerns". Ambassador Jackie Wolcott told the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna on March 5 that Iran should end "its destabilizing conduct and return to the negotiating table."

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Australian Permanent Representative to IAEA Brendon Hammer has highlighted his country's "continued support" for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). "Australia attaches highest importance to the IAEA's activities in Iran under the JCPOA. Australia's continued support for the JCPOA is informed by ongoing advice from the Director General that Iran is fully implementing its nuclear commitments under the Plan," Australian Permanent Representative to IAEA Brendon Hammer said in a tweet on Tuesday.

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS  

China is still Iran's top trade partner, leading oil customer, a key technology exporter, a major political ally and one of the signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) still committed to the deal. All of this has given Beijing an increasingly central position in Iran's "Look to the East" doctrine, a key foreign policy strategy actively pursued by the Islamic Republic after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018.


French seed maker Vilmorin, said on Tuesday it was continuing some exports to Iran with the backing of a French bank, and will participate in efforts to implement a European scheme to avoid U.S. sanctions targeting trade with Tehran. Vilmorin, one of the world's largest suppliers of seeds for grain and vegetable crops, has cited the U.S. sanctions against Iran as among the short-term risks to its activities in emerging markets, along with currency volatility.

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS


A prominent human rights lawyer in Iran who defended protesters against the Islamic Republic's mandatory headscarves for women has been convicted and faces years in prison, an activist group said Wednesday. The conviction of Nasrin Sotoudeh, who previously served three years in prison for her work, underlines the limits of challenging Iran's theocracy as it faces economic pressure exacerbated by the U.S. pulling out of Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.


The United States and rights activists are criticizing Iran for selecting as its new judiciary chief a conservative cleric allegedly involved in mass executions of dissidents in the 1980s. An Iranian judiciary spokesman confirmed in a Sunday news conference that Ebrahim Raisi will succeed another conservative cleric, Sadeq Amoli Larijani, as judiciary chief on Friday. Iranian media had predicted the move since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promoted Larijani to the role of head of Iran's Expediency Council in December.


Dozens of teachers staged sit-ins in schools across Iran for the third consecutive day to protest against low salaries and the jailing of teachers' rights activists. The strikes were organized by the Coordinating Council of Teachers Syndicates in Iran (CCTSI), which said on March 5 that educators at more than 1,000 primary and secondary schools in Tehran, Isfahan, Hamadan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Shiraz, Yazd, and dozens of other cities and towns had participated in the protests.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS


Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) said Tuesday he'd like to include language in the annual defense policy bill that codifies President Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Inhofe was speaking to reporters in his office about a congressional delegation trip last month that included stops in Germany, Israel, Kosovo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Algeria.


Iran's president says there's no chance of negotiations or compromise with the United States, because Washington allegedly is seeking to topple the government in Tehran. Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech on Wednesday that "the United States says Iran should change" back to the way the country was before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Rouhani says: "We say we won't go back." He says the differences between Iran and the U.S. are so wide, they are "neither negotiable nor can there be a compromise."


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani accused the United States on Wednesday of plotting to use economic pressure to overthrow the Islamic republic's clerical establishment, and ruled out the possibility of talks with Washington.  "Iran is in economic and psychological war with America and its allies. Their aim is to change the regime but their wish will not come true," Rouhani said in a speech in the northern province of Gilan. 
  

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had separate telephone conversations with Britain's foreign Secretary and the French foreign minister to discuss Iran, Syria and other issues. The Deputy Spokesperson of the State Department, Robert Palladino announced that Pompeo spoke with Britain's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt o discuss countering Iranian malign behavior", securing progress in Syria and "pursuing shared goal to denuclearize" The People's Republic of Korea.

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


Qassem Soleimani's role in a political crisis in Iran highlights the influence of the leader of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, who has acquired celebrity status at home after being largely invisible for years. The resignation of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif last week was quickly rejected by President Hassan Rouhani, but a week on, tension over Zarif's absence from meetings with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that Soleimani attended is still evident.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

A 1970s building on Tehran's Enghelab (Revolution) Avenue that ends in Azadi (Liberty) Square has recently been the site for a series of meetings on an unusual subject given Iranian social norms. Every Tuesday, experts and members of the public come together there to talk, sometimes heatedly, about sex. Since Dec. 4, "Forums on Sexual Crisis in Iran" has been bringing together academics, documentary filmmakers, clerics, journalists, students and women activists to discuss such issues as polygamy, sex education, homosexuality and transsexuality. 

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN


Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's much-publicized resignation was largely attributed to the existence of parallel power structures in Iran that adversely affect many areas of policymaking and governance, including foreign policy. One policy issue that has caused a great deal of controversy among Iran's ruling elite is whether to implement requirements of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on money laundering, terrorism financing and transnational organized crime.

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN


Yemen and its Saudi and UAE allies are accusing the Houthi rebels of breaking their agreement to withdraw from two ports. Ambassadors from the three countries sent a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, asking him to demand the Houthis carry out their commitments.

The Iranian government has approved a generous plan to facilitate participation in the hajj, offering Saudi-bound travelers the opportunity to pay for the voyage - estimated to cost over $3,000 - in local currency at rates far below the open market. As of March 5, the US dollar cost around 130,000 rials on the open market, over three times the official rate, which has stood at a fixed 42,000 rials for almost a year now. The subsidized rate offered to pilgrims will be just over half that on the open market, or 70,000 rials per dollar.

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS    


"France and Iran have appointed ambassadors to each other's capitals, ending a six-month absence during which relations have remained tense between the two countries. Philippe Thiebaud will take up the role of France's top diplomat in Tehran "in the coming weeks," the French embassy said in a Tweet on Wednesday. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi will become his counterpart in Paris, Agence France-Presse news agency reported, citing an Iranian official.


Iran has released three Jordanians it arrested in December after they strayed into Iranian territorial waters in the Gulf, Jordan's foreign ministry said on Tuesday. "Iranian authorities released the three Jordanians and handed them over to the acting charge d'affairs at the kingdom's embassy in Tehran," it said. The three men were detained during a fishing trip from the United Arab Emirates late last year.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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