Top Stories
USA TODAY: "Nuclear
talks between Iran and world powers ended on a promising note Wednesday,
according to the United States, but analysts cautioned that Iran had not
appeared to agree on any of the major demands of the West. Media reports
that Iran had agreed to 'snap' inspections of its nuclear facilities were
contradicted by an Iranian negotiator. And the Iranians continued to
insist that any serious concessions to the West would not come until at
least a year, by which time the United States estimates Iran may have
mastered the technology and created the materials to build an atomic
bomb. Gary Samore, former chief adviser to President Obama on weapons of
mass destruction, said reports on Iranian television that Iran offered to
limit its enrichment of uranium - enrichment at high levels can produce
fuel for a nuclear bomb - is no guarantee that the Islamic republic will
not produce a bomb. 'The Iranian offer to limit the level of enrichment
is not going to be sufficient,' said Samore, head of United Against
Nuclear Iran. To ensure the nuclear program is for peaceful purposes as
Iran claims, the number of centrifuges that enrich uranium must be
reduced, and there must be constant oversight and inspection of Iranian
facilities, he said." http://t.uani.com/16QCv0R
WSJ:
"Negotiations aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program gathered
momentum over two days of talks, with a new round set for early November
and senior U.S. officials saying for the first time that they are
beginning to see the outlines of a potential deal. U.S., Western and
Iranian officials said the stage now is set for faster diplomacy in which
Iran and global negotiators pursue specific measures to allay Western
fears that Tehran is secretly-and speedily-moving to develop nuclear
weapons. Western officials in Geneva stressed the U.S. and its allies saw
major hurdles to reaching a pact with Tehran. But a senior U.S. official
in Geneva said a road map was emerging, aided by the seriousness with
which Western officials believe Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and
his team are approaching the talks. 'We are beginning that kind of
negotiation to get to a place where, in fact, one can imagine that you
could possibly have an agreement,' said the senior U.S. official." http://t.uani.com/174KJ80
AP:
"Demands in Congress grew Wednesday for a speedy escalation of
sanctions against Iran as two days of nuclear talks ended in Geneva,
setting up a potential foreign policy clash with the Obama administration
while it seeks a diplomatic end to the standoff with Tehran. Even as
negotiations between world powers and Iran ended on an upbeat note, with
a new round of discussions set for November, lawmakers seeking to end a
government shutdown back in Washington quickly expressed their skepticism
and laid out red lines for the talks. Members of both parties have
overwhelmingly backed tougher economic pressure on Iran in recent years
amid concern it is closing in on nuclear weapons capability... The Senate
Banking Committee is expected to draft new sanctions shortly after the
government reopens, largely mirroring a House bill that passed
overwhelmingly by a 400-20 vote in July and blacklisted Iran's mining and
construction sectors. It also called for all Iranian oil sales to end by
2015. The Senate's bill may narrow that timeframe, block international
investment in more economic sectors, try to close off Iran's foreign
accounts and tighten Obama's ability to waive requirements for allies and
key trading partners who continue to do business with Iran, according to
an aide involved in the process." http://t.uani.com/16i4MKa
Nuclear
Program
NYT: "Iran and a group of six world
powers said Wednesday that they had engaged in 'substantive' and
'forward-looking' discussions on the disputed Iranian nuclear program and
that they would meet again in early November. The account of the two days
of talks in Geneva came in a rare joint statement from Iran's foreign
minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Catherine Ashton, the foreign policy
chief for the European Union, who is the lead negotiator with Iran...
Representatives from the two sides are to meet again in Geneva for talks
on Nov. 7 and 8. Nuclear and sanctions experts from the two sides are to
meet before then." http://t.uani.com/17NvB8D
Reuters:
"Differences remain between Iran and the United States and other
world powers over Tehran's nuclear ambitions, but the U.S. delegation has
never had such intense talks with the Iranians as this week, a senior
U.S. administration official said on Wednesday. 'I've been doing this now
for about two years,' the official said on condition of anonymity at the
end of two days of talks between Iran and six world powers in Geneva.
'And I have never had such intense, detailed, straightforward, candid
conversations with the Iranian delegation before.' 'Although there remain
many differences in each area, and what sanctions relief might be
appropriate, specific and candid discussions took place,' the official
added... The official noted that no breakthroughs were achieved at the
Geneva negotiations - and none had been expected. 'There is more work,
much more work to do,' the official added. 'This is a beginning.
Beginnings are rarely groundbreaking because you are putting pieces on
the table.'" http://t.uani.com/1bZcYXG
Reuters:
"Moscow expressed scepticism over the results of nuclear talks
between Iran and six world powers which ended on Wednesday, with a senior
Russian diplomat saying the two sides were 'kilometres apart' in their
approaches. After discussions in Geneva involving Iran and the five U.N.
Security Council members - the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia
- and Germany, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said he saw no
guarantee of progress in future talks. 'The result is better than in
Almaty (talks in April), but it does not guarantee further progress,
there could have been better cooperation,' Ryabkov was quoted by Interfax
as saying." http://t.uani.com/18oZxfE
TIME:
"'Any agreement will open new horizons in relations with all
states,' Araghchi told the reporter, whose ID clearly identified him as
Israeli. The diplomat replied 'Yes' when asked if Israel could live with
any agreement that might come out of the Geneva talks. 'That's the key
question to this negotiation,' says Gary Samore, who held the title of
President Obama's top adviser on weapons of mass destruction for four
years, and now heads a group called United Against Nuclear Iran. 'I would
put it in terms of time. How much time do you want to have in terms of
advance warning that Iran has decided to pursue nuclear weapons by
producing weapons-grade uranium?' ... 'Obviously I'd feel much more
comfortable if we had a year's notice, or even nine months' notice,'
Samore says. 'That would give us a lot more time to detect and then
respond. And I think from Israel's standpoint if there was that amount of
warning time and the Israelis had confidence the U.S. was willing to act
once breakout was detected, that should give them some comfort as
well.'" http://t.uani.com/1arfEXi
Washington Jewish
Week: "In a forum at the Jewish Community Center of
Northern Virginia, two speakers said they felt that U.S. and European
Union sanctions provide leverage over Iran, but that the U.S. needs to
establish itself as a credible military threat as it enters a new round
of negotiations with the country that poses a huge threat because of its
nuclear program. The discussion was held to provide attendees with
insight on Iran's nuclear threat and its implications for the greater
Middle East. Presented by the Jewish Community Relations Council's Israel
Action Center on Thursday of last week, it featured speakers David Ibsen,
the executive director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), and Dr.
Emanuele Ottolenghi, a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies in D.C. Ibsen, a former policy analyst for the U.S.
Department of State, said that sanctions have become 'increasingly
innovative' in targeting the Iranian economy and have had a tremendous
effect. The greatest challenge, he said, is the U.S. resisting the
temptation to offer premature sanction relief, which is what he said Iran
wants. To prevent progress in Iran's continued nuclear activities, the
U.S. has imposed sanction programs for many years... 'Until we see
reprioritization from Iran' we have to keep imposing sanctions, Ibsen
said. 'It's important there will be no concessions made on our side,'
until there is proof of nonproliferation, he added." http://t.uani.com/16ddBu0
Sanctions
Reuters:
"The United States and Iran disagree on what sanctions relief, if
any, might be provided if Iran takes steps to curtail its atomic program,
and any easing would be proportionate to Iran's actions, the U.S. State
Department said on Wednesday. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki also
said the Obama administration has not yet decided whether to urge the
U.S. Congress to refrain from imposing additional sanctions on Iran - a
request it made ahead of this week's talks on the issue." http://t.uani.com/GSn4eC
Human Rights
Amnesty
International: "Iran must stop the execution of man
who was found alive at a morgue a day after being hanged, Amnesty
International urged today after authorities said the prisoner would be
hanged for a second time once his condition improves... 'The horrific
prospect of this man facing a second hanging, after having gone through
the whole ordeal already once, merely underlines the cruelty and
inhumanity of the death penalty,' said Philip Luther, Director of Amnesty
International's Middle East and North Africa Programme. 'The Iranian
authorities must immediately halt Alireza M's execution and issue a
moratorium on all others.' ... So far in 2013, the Iranian authorities
are believed to have executed a total of at least 508 people, including
221 executions that have not been officially confirmed." http://t.uani.com/GSnnGb
Fox News:
"While the new Iranian regime is busy trying to convince the outside
world it is moderate, Tehran has clamped down even harder on human rights
and stepped up public executions in recent weeks. An estimated 560 people
have been executed in Iran this year, including as many as 250 since
President Hasan Rouhani took office in August, according to human rights
advocates. In the two weeks between Sept. 11 and Sept. 25, Iranian
officials hanged a record 50 people, mostly for drug offenses, according
to International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. 'While Rouhani was
promoting a softer image of Iran internationally during his visit to New
York two weeks ago, it was business as usual on the domestic front with
scores of prisoners put to death following unfair trials,' said Hadi
Ghaemi, executive director of the International Campaign for Human Rights
in Iran. 'Since Rouhani's inauguration, the increasing number of
prisoners being sent to the gallows is indefensible.'" http://t.uani.com/174KPMV
Domestic
Politics
FT:
"But at home it is the Guards' commercial empire that causes the
deepest worries. Over the past decade, associates of the Guards have
profited from $120bn of so-called privatisations to acquire core national
assets, notably in the communications sector. This has only strengthened
the financial muscle that the Guards had accumulated from their
traditional cash cow: taking a hefty cut from imports of consumer goods,
believed to range from glass to Maseratis. But now this new cadre of
Sepah-affiliated businessmen, who are considered Iran's oligarchs, will have
to overcome a new challenge if they are to preserve their influence. The
victory of Hassan Rouhani in June's presidential election, which many
observers say defied the will of the Guards, and the Islamic regime's
shift towards support for his more moderate domestic and foreign
policies, could prove costly for the corps." http://t.uani.com/19MdWkB
Foreign
Affairs
WashPost:
"The Turkish-Israeli relationship became so poisonous early last
year that the Turkish government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
is said to have disclosed to Iranian intelligence the identities of up to
10 Iranians who had been meeting inside Turkey with their Mossad case
officers. Knowledgeable sources describe the Turkish action as a
'significant' loss of intelligence and 'an effort to slap the Israelis.'
The incident, disclosed here for the first time, illustrates the bitter,
multi-dimensional spy wars that lie behind the current negotiations
between Iran and Western nations over a deal to limit the Iranian nuclear
program. A Turkish Embassy spokesman had no comment... Israeli
intelligence had apparently run part of its Iranian spy network through
Turkey, which has relatively easy movement back and forth across its
border with Iran. The Turkish intelligence service, known as the Milli
Istihbarat Teskilati, or MIT, conducts aggressive surveillance inside its
borders, so it had the resources to monitor Israeli-Iranian covert
meetings." http://t.uani.com/GZI1EM
Opinion
& Analysis
UANI
President Gary Samore Interviewed by Golnaz Esfandiari of RFE/RL:
"This week's nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran have
been described by the EU's top foreign policy official, Catherine Ashton,
as 'their most detailed talk ever.' RFE/RL correspondent Golnaz
Esfandiari spoke to Gary Samore, who until recently was part of the U.S.
negotiating team and was U.S. President Barack Obama's top
nuclear-proliferation expert, about the significance of the talks in
Geneva.
RFE/RL: It seems
there was some progress made in the Geneva talks between the P5+1
(the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, and China, plus Germany) and
Iran. Western officials have said that for the first time they had a very
detailed discussion with the Iranian delegation and that the Iranian
proposal was very useful. Is there room for hope?
Samore: I think there
is room. I think we're in a better position now than we have been for
almost a decade to make progress, primarily because the Iranians are
under so much pressure due to the economic sanctions to try to find some
relief. And the big question will be whether they're willing to agree to
the kind of restrictions and limits on their nuclear program that the
United States and its allies will demand as a condition for sanctions
relief.
RFE/RL: Iran's new
proposal has not been made public but a few details have emerged: the
plan envisages an initial confidence-building stage within six months
that would include limits on Iran's uranium enrichment in return for some
sanctions relief. Would that be acceptable? Would the U.S. accept
limited uranium enrichment by Iran?
Samore: Well, the
U.S. has long proposed that any agreement on the nuclear issue begin with
a confidence-building stage. And, in particular, the P5+1 have proposed
that if Iran agrees to cease production of enrichment above 5 percent,
close down the Fordow facility, and remove a large portion of its 20
percent-enriched stockpile, then the U.S. and Europe would agree to lift
some of the economic sanctions -- in particular restrictions on trade and
semiprecious metals and petrochemical products. So that's long been a
part of the American approach and if Iran agrees to that, then it would
be an important step forward.
RFE/RL: Closure of
the Fordow uranium-enrichment facility does not appear to be part of
Iran's proposal. Iranian officials were quoted as saying by domestic news
agencies that Tehran intends to continue operating Fordow, and Tehran has
also said that it would not allow its stockpiles of enriched uranium to
be shipped abroad. From what you have seen of the Iranian proposal, does
it seem to you that Iran is ready to go far enough to satisfy the United
States?
Samore: Certainly not what has been made public so far. But,
of course, as you say the details have not been made public. So I can't
tell you for certain, but what has been talked about in public so far is
not enough to satisfy the U.S. and the Western powers...
RFE/RL: What kind of
a deal would remove all concerns about Iran's nuclear program?
Samore: I think as
part of any comprehensive agreement, as part of a final agreement that
leads to the lifting of all sanctions, I think the U.S. and Europeans
will insist on physical limits on Iran's enrichment capacity. Limits in
terms of the numbers of centrifuges, types of centrifuges, the number of
enrichment locations, the stockpile of enriched material, as well as the
level of enrichment. So some combination of all those factors will have
to be part of a final agreement." http://t.uani.com/19TrRHg
Benny Avni in NYPost: "Yes. No. Maybe.
Perhaps later. Take your pick: Any of those terms might answer the
question of whether the talks over Iran's nuclear program, which wrapped
up Wednesday in Geneva, are making progress. That kind of confusion is
precisely how Tehran likes it. And President Obama & Co. seems to be
falling for it. Iran's Powerpoint represented 'a new proposal with a
level of seriousness and substance that we had not seen before,' gushed
White House spokesman Jay Carney. That followed a similarly glowing joint
statement read out in Geneva by Iran's foreign minister, Javad Zarif, and
the European Union's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton. Neither of
them said much about the substance of the Iranian proposals, citing the
need to keep secrecy so progress can be made. Apparently the 'big'
diplomatic leap forward in the current round of talks - the first since
the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, started his charm offensive - has
to do with the mullahs saying 'yes' to one of the West's long-time
demands: The mullahs would allow international inspectors to make
surprise visits and to have more access to the Islamic Republic's nuclear
installations. The Iranians, to be precise, indicated they'd sign the
additional protocol to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This way inspectors
of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency can be more
intrusive in their scrutiny of Iran's illicit nuclear program. Not bad
for two days of work, huh? Maybe. Turns out we know about this 'offer'
from an Iranian reporter who accompanied the delegation headed by the
affable Zarif to Geneva. Zarif - and the reporter - are the good cops.
But a competing Iranian newspaper, representing the hardline bad cops,
who accuse Zarif of already conceding too much to the Great Satan,
reported earlier in the week that Iran is decisive: It would never agree
to the additional protocol. So, yes. No. Maybe. What's more, on reading
the Iranian press account more closely, it turns out that Iran's deputy
foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, says that Iran will 'consider' signing
the additional protocol - and do so only at the last stage of
negotiations, after everything else was agreed on. So maybe later. Or
maybe not even then. As Gary Samore, the White House point man on Iran in
President Obama's first term, postulated in a phone briefing Tuesday, the
Iranian delegation to Geneva must have brought with it nothing but
'warmed over soup.' Samore, now president of the hawkish advocacy group
United Against Nuclear Iran, acknowledged that he didn't know the exact
details of the Iranian offer. Nevertheless, he said that, knowing the
Iranian ways of negotiation, you can hardly expect its new team to
present anything new in the first meeting with the six powers. But, he
added, don't exclude the possibility that Iran's team might offer
something more substantial in the future. So a breakthrough may happen
much later." http://t.uani.com/19M8mOW
Benny Avni in
Newsweek: "As Iran diplomacy is renewed in earnest,
and as Syria promises to surrender its poison weapons, a perennial clarion
call is revived across the Middle East: Want no more Syrian chems or
Iranian nukes? Want to end all Middle East arms proliferation? Dismantle
Dimona. For now, Israelis are not concerned America will alter its policy
of allowing the Jewish state to keep its arms under wraps at the secret
nuclear plant near the Negev town of Dimona. But as talks between Iran
and America intensify, and as Tehran is likely to demand concessions,
some diplomats are demanding Israel be included in a wider deal, and even
some Israelis advocate emerging from the nuclear shadows. At the United
Nations last month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called for a
'nuclear-free zone' in the Middle East. 'I wouldn't be surprised' if the
Iranians made the same demand in negotiations just started in Geneva
between diplomats of six leading countries and Iran, said Gary Samore,
the White House point man on disarmament in President Obama's first
term... Samore, the former Obama official who is now president of the
advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, acknowledged he has no
firsthand information on the current Geneva talks. But, he told me, in
past diplomatic sessions with Iran 'we often heard of a nuclear-free
zone,' especially from the former top negotiator, Saeed Jalili. Jalili is
deemed a hard-liner, especially when compared to the affable current
foreign minister, Javad Zarif, who led the Iranian team at Geneva this
week. Samore says that as far as he knows Iran has put no new ideas on
the table at Geneva beyond some 'warmed-over soup' from the days of the
former hard-line president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But, whatever Iran
proposes, 'I doubt the United States will be diverted to a regional
approach that would involve Israel,' Samore said. Indeed, American
officials last month forged a coalition that blocked an Arab-led
resolution at a meeting of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy
Agency's board of directors, which called on Israel to join the NPT and
open its facilities for international inspections." http://t.uani.com/17NtWzN
Anne Applebaum in
WashPost: "After years of no progress with Iran, why
the sudden good cheer? It's certainly not because Rouhani represents a
radical new strand of Iranian thinking about nuclear power. After all, he
was Iran's nuclear negotiator from 2003 to 2005. Parts of the nuclear
program were temporarily suspended during that time, but it was never
eliminated. Nor does Rouhani's new cabinet mark a profound break from
those who have run the Islamic Republic since its inception. As his
justice minister, Rouhani has appointed Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a former
high official in the Information Ministry in the bloody and violent
1980s. Among other things, Pourmohammadi was one of those primarily
responsible for the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in
1988. He moved on to the ministry's foreign intelligence operations in
the 1990s, during which its 'achievements' included the bombing of a
Jewish community center in Buenos Aires and the assassination of
dissidents in Iran and around the world. No one is denying this bit of
history... Little appears to have changed: In the week of Sept. 23, when
Rouhani was at the U.N. General Assembly in New York, more than 30
Iranians were reportedly executed without due process of law. Rouhani's
team, in other words, has not gone to Geneva after a process of profound
internal transformation. On the contrary, Iran has returned to
negotiations for only one reason: The new president wants economic
sanctions lifted because they have taken a powerful toll on the Iranian
economy. At a recent conference in London, I heard Iranian diaspora
economists return again and again to that theme. Sanctions have
destabilized Iran's currency, oil and gas industry, international trade
and investor confidence. Of course the shortcomings of sanctions are well
known: They are a blunt and inefficient instrument; plenty of people defy
them; and illicit trade goes on all the time. And, yes, they distribute
economic pain over the entire population and don't necessarily hit
hardest the people who make the decisions. Nevertheless, three decades'
worth of overlapping unilateral and multilateral sanctions on Iran,
organized at different times by the United States, the United Nations and
the European Union, are, at least in a narrow sense, 'working'; they have
forced Iran's leaders back to a negotiating table they had largely
abandoned some years ago... Certainly we in the United States aren't
overly worried about Britain's nuclear arsenal or about India's. The
United States is hardly in a position to oppose nuclear weapons in
principle, since we and several of our allies have them. No, we oppose
Iran's nuclear ambitions for one reason: because we object to the Islamic
Republic of Iran, a quasi-totalitarian state that since 1979 has been led
by brutal, volatile men with no respect for the rule of law. Their regime
is a 'domestic' problem for many Iranians, and it's a major problem for
Iran's neighbors and the rest of the world. To put it differently: As
long as men like Pourmohammadi are running Iran's courts and prisons, as
long as the Iranian judicial system is subverted by a politicized version
of sharia, there will always be a limit to what can be achieved through
any conversations with Tehran. Talking is fine. But the negotiators in
Geneva should leave any optimism at the door." http://t.uani.com/19TsLUr
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