Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Eye on Iran: Rouhani Boasts of West's 'Surrender' to Iran in Nuclear Talks








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AP: "Iranian officials have been keen on portraying the pact as advantageous to their country in easing sanctions in return for what they say are minimal nuclear concessions. President Hassan Rouhani's remarks Tuesday appeared to be part of efforts to bring around hard-liners who have denounced the deal, claiming it tramples on Iran's enrichment rights. 'Do you know what the Geneva agreement means? It means the surrender of the big powers before the great Iranian nation,' Rouhani told a crowd in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan. 'The Geneva agreement means the wall of sanctions has broken. The unfair sanctions were imposed on the revered and peace-loving Iranian nation,' he said. 'It means an admission by the world of Iran's peaceful nuclear program.'" http://t.uani.com/KZF2Oo

LAT: "Key elements of a new nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers are contained in an informal, 30-page text not yet publicly acknowledged by Western officials, Iran's chief negotiator said Monday. Abbas Araqchi disclosed the existence of the document in a Persian-language interview with the semiofficial Iranian Students News Agency. In the interview, Araqchi referred to the side agreement using the English word 'nonpaper,' a diplomatic term used for an informal side agreement that doesn't have to be disclosed publicly. The nonpaper deals with such important details as the operation of a joint commission to oversee how the deal is implemented and Iran's right to continue nuclear research and development during the next several months, he said. Araqchi described the joint commission as an influential body that will have authority to decide disputes. U.S. officials have described it as a discussion forum rather than a venue for arbitrating major disputes. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Monday that the text of the implementing agreement would be released to lawmakers. He said the six parties were weighing how much of the text they could release publicly... A State Department spokeswoman, Marie Harf, denied later Monday that there was any secret agreement... In his interview, Araqchi touched on the sensitive issue of how much latitude Iran will have to continue its nuclear research and development. U.S. officials said Sunday that Iran would be allowed to continue existing research and development projects and with pencil-and-paper design work, but not to advance research with new projects. Araqchi, however, implied that the program would have wide latitude. 'No facility will be closed; enrichment will continue, and qualitative and nuclear research will be expanded,' he said. 'All research into a new generation of centrifuges will continue.'" http://t.uani.com/19rRS31

NYT: "With the United States and Iran about to embark on a critical phase of nuclear talks, President Obama is waging an intense rear-guard action to prevent Senate Democrats from supporting strict new sanctions that could upend his diplomatic efforts... The White House has cast the issue in stark terms, saying that a vote for new sanctions would be, in effect, a 'march toward war' and challenging those lawmakers who support the bill to acknowledge publicly that they favor military action against Iran. 'It just stands to reason if you close the diplomatic option, you're left with a difficult choice of waiting to see if sanctions cause Iran to capitulate, which we don't think will happen, or considering military action,' said Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser. Yet senators from both parties angrily reject that characterization, saying that congressional pressure to impose sanctions is what brought Iran to the negotiating table to begin with. If anything, they said, the West needs the specter of more sanctions as a 'diplomatic insurance policy,' in case Iran reneges on the interim deal or the talks ultimately fail. ... As the debate has intensified, some Democrats are taking umbrage at the White House's tone, pointing to a statement last week from a National Security Council official that said, 'If certain members of Congress want the United States to take military action, they should be up front with the American public and say so.' Senator Benjamin L. Cardin, Democrat of Maryland and a strong supporter of the legislation, bristled at the White House's pressure, especially its 'march to war' language. 'I think they should regret using that language,' he said. 'The bad actor is Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1d05Yak
   
Geneva Interim Agreement Implementation

CNN: "Iran has pledged to start eliminating some of its uranium stockpile on January 20, the White House said Sunday. That gives an official start time for the six-month interim deal with Iran, which was first announced in November. But there are still hurdles ahead for this deal. 'Congress could certainly blow it up. If the Iranians don't comply with any of the major provisions, it could blow it up. (And) if there was a discovery a new facility, something we didn't know about,' said New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger. 'But it's in the Iranians' interest right now to let that six months play out, and maybe let another six months after that play out,' said Sanger. The agreement allows for negotiation that could go on for as long as a year. 'That's important, because this interim agreement rolls back very little,' said Sanger. 'All it does is keep Iran from making more use of the fuel that is closest to bomb grade. But what it doesn't do is take back any of the centrifuges, the equipment that enriches uranium, and make them disassemble that. That's what the bigger disagreement is about.'" http://t.uani.com/1gEKKjb

LAT: "Word that the interim nuclear deal between Iran and world powers will go into effect this month for the most part was met positively in the Iranian capital, though some hard-liners reiterated their opposition. 'Maybe our business will be better in six months or so,' said Amir Mosavi, 30, a downtown vendor of wrist watches and clocks, who, like many others, views the accord as a possible prelude to improvement for the nation's sluggish, sanctions-battered economy. In the money exchange market near the British Embassy, the Iranian rial rose slightly against the U.S. dollar, a sign of confidence for a currency pummeled in the past year by Western-led sanctions... However, hard-liners and conservatives remain suspect about the motivations of the United States and other nations demanding limits on Iran's nuclear efforts. Opponents argue that Tehran has conceded too much in limiting its nuclear program and received too little in return. 'All of the points of the agreement are against Iran's interest,' wrote Husian Shariatmadari, chief editor of Kayhan, a hard-line opposition daily." http://t.uani.com/1kzPBaX

AFP: "Unblocking billions of dollars in funds to Iran under a landmark six-month nuclear deal with the West will have a significant economic and psychological impact on the Islamic republic, experts said Monday... 'The political and psychological effect will be (more) considerable,' than the amount of funds involved, economic expert Saeed Leylaz said. 'It will be easier to sell our oil, our petrochemical products and recover our petrodollars. And all the products we buy abroad will cost 10 percent less,' Leylaz told AFP... Leylaz says sanctions relief could bolster state coffers in the long run, and estimates that annual revenues will rise by $20-25 billion dollars... The head of international relations at Iran's national oil company, Mohsen Ghamsari, expects oil exports will grow if sanctions relief becomes a long-term exercise. Ghamsari, in comments published by Iranian newspapers, said oil exports had already increased in recent months to 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day compared to 1.2 mbpd. According to Leylaz, Iran has sold $34 billion worth of oil and byproducts during the past nine months, earning $32 billion." http://t.uani.com/1cZZtEp

WSJ: "Executives from some of France's biggest companies, including energy giants GDF Suez SA and Alstom SA, are slated to fly to Tehran next month-signaling a fresh wave of corporate interest in Iran as the West eases sanctions. Details of the high-level business trip are emerging after Iran and Western powers completed terms of an interim nuclear deal on Sunday, with Tehran agreeing to closer international monitoring of its nuclear program in exchange for limited, temporary sanctions relief. The deal specifically eases restrictions related to Iran's aviation, auto and petrochemicals industries... Officials from several European automotive and oil firms have already traveled to Tehran amid months of diplomatic thaw. But the French delegation-organized by the country's biggest employer association-is shaping up to be one of the highest-profile visits by European corporate executives since Iranian and Western diplomats started to make progress in talks last year. Executives from nine of France's CAC-40 blue-chip firms are listed as planning to participate in the delegation, according to a preliminary roster drawn up by Medef International, the group organizing the visit, and seen by The Wall Street Journal... Veolia Environnement SA said Didier Authier, a vice president for a subsidiary specializing in desalination projects, is joining the delegation. A spokesperson for Safran SA, which makes propulsion engines and other aircraft spare parts, said that it was considering sending a representative on the trip but that no final decision had been made." http://t.uani.com/1eG0Olf

Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Reuters: "The U.N. nuclear watchdog's increased access in Iran to monitor a landmark agreement with world powers still falls short of what it says it needs to investigate suspicions that Tehran may have worked on designing an atomic bomb. It is also a far cry from the wide-ranging inspection powers the International Atomic Energy Agency had in Iraq in the 1990s to help unearth and dismantle Saddam Hussein's clandestine nuclear program after the first Gulf war. Nevertheless, the IAEA will see its role in Iran expand significantly under the November 24 interim accord between the country and the six major powers, the implementation of which will start next Monday. Since the deal is only preliminary, the IAEA and its investigation may gain more prominence in later talks on a final settlement of the decade-old dispute over Iran's nuclear program, but it remains to be seen how far it will go. 'This is just an appetizer, I guess ... a starter,' former chief U.N. nuclear inspector Herman Nackaerts said... But, he told Reuters, 'more has to come to be able to resolve all the outstanding issues, that is quite clear.' To check that Iran meets its side of the six-month accord to curb sensitive nuclear activity in return for some sanctions easing, IAEA experts will go daily to Iran's uranium enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, up from about once a week now. They will also inspect plants where Iran is manufacturing the specialized equipment, centrifuges, used to enrich uranium, as well as uranium mines and mills." http://t.uani.com/1cZXujn

Reuters: "The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday a planned meeting with Iran next week to discuss steps meant to ease concerns over its nuclear programme has been pushed back to February 8 at Tehran's request. The International Atomic Energy Agency did not say why Tehran asked for a delay. But the original date, January 21, is just a day after Iran and big powers are to start implementing an interim deal on curbing Iranian nuclear activity, suggesting a busy agenda in coming days may have led to the postponement. The IAEA has been tasked with checking that Iran carries out its end of the six-month preliminary accord, so the U.N. agency is also facing an extra workload. The IAEA-Iran negotiations that have now been postponed are separate from - albeit still closely aligned with - broader, high-level diplomacy between Tehran and six world powers over Iran's nuclear programme. In November, Iran and the IAEA struck a cooperation pact, including six initial steps to be taken by Tehran over the following three months, entailing access to two nuclear-related facilities and the provision of information. They said after a review meeting last month they would meet again in Tehran on January 21 to discuss the next steps under the framework agreement. Western diplomats say those measures may be increasingly difficult to negotiate, as the IAEA has made clear it wants to resume a long-blocked investigation into what it calls the possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme." http://t.uani.com/L6VCMK

AP: "Diplomats said Tuesday that the U.N. nuclear agency will convene a Jan. 24 meeting of the agency's leading nations on a landmark pact reached between Tehran and six world powers - an agreement described by Iran's president as representing the 'surrender' of Western powers to his country's demands. The date was shared with The Associated Press by two diplomats from member countries of the U.N's International Atomic Energy Agency. They demanded anonymity because they were not authorized to reveal it before a formal IAEA announcement... The accord designates the IAEA to oversee Iranian compliance with terms of the deal. The 35-nation IAEA board is expected to approve that role at the Jan. 24 meeting." http://t.uani.com/KZF2Oo

Global Security Newswire: "China's export policies have enabled Pakistan and Iran to buy technology relevant to developing longer-range missiles, says a new congressional report. Beijing has taken some actions to address international concerns about its role in weapons proliferation, but its exports nonetheless have 'aggravated trends that result in ambiguous technical aid, more indigenous capabilities, longer-range missiles, and secondary [re-transferred] proliferation,' reads the Jan. 3 report by the Congressional Research Service, Capitol Hill's internal research arm. 'Unclassified intelligence reports told Congress that China was a 'key supplier' of technology, particularly with [Chinese] entities providing nuclear and missile-related technology to Pakistan and missile-related technology to Iran,' says the paper, which did not go into further specifics." http://t.uani.com/JYkNAm

Sanctions

Reuters: "President Barack Obama is more likely to win his battle with the U.S. Congress to keep new sanctions on Iran at bay now that world powers and Tehran have made a new advance in talks to curb the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Despite strong support for a bill in the Senate to slap new sanctions on the Islamic Republic, analysts, lawmakers and congressional aides said on Monday that the agreement to begin implementing a nuclear deal on Jan. 20 makes it harder for sanctions supporters to attract more backers. Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, was one of several of the 59 co-sponsors who said there is no clamor for a vote any time soon. 'I want to talk to some of my colleagues. I'm encouraged and heartened by the apparent progress and certainly the last thing I want to do is impede that progress. But at the same time, sanctions are what has brought the Iranians to the table,' he told reporters." http://t.uani.com/1fumdkg

WSJ: "Lawmakers in the House have begun a push for a vote on the same legislative language as the bill circulating in the Senate to 'help push that over the finish line,' said a person familiar with discussions. If the House were to pass legislation matching the bill in the Senate, it would speed the process of sending a bill to Mr. Obama's desk because the two chambers would not have to go through the process of reconciling their different bills. The shift in legislative strategy comes after House leaders last month devised Iran sanctions legislation that was far more stringent than the Senate bill. That effort was delayed after intense lobbying from the White House. A House vote would also increase pressure on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) to hold a Senate vote. So far, people familiar with the process say, Mr. Reid has no plans to bring the Senate bill to the floor for a vote this month. It is unclear what type of support House leaders will get from Democrats for their effort." http://t.uani.com/1eG7X51

Reuters: "The White House said on Monday it was concerned about a recent report that Iran and Russia are negotiating an oil-for-goods swap worth $1.5 billion a month, a deal a spokeswoman said could trigger U.S. sanctions... Russian and Iranian sources close to the barter negotiations said the deal could see Russia buy as much as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods. 'We are concerned about these reports and Secretary (of State John) Kerry directly expressed this concern with (Russian) Foreign Minister (Sergei) Lavrov today,' Caitlin Hayden, spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, told Reuters." http://t.uani.com/1dn0kA8

Reuters: "India may cut Iranian oil imports by 15 percent in 2014/15 from the current fiscal year's target, if western sanctions on Iran are not eased and the situation remains the same, a senior oil ministry official said on Tuesday. India, Iran's second-biggest customer after China, may import 180,000-185,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in 2014/15 fiscal year beginning in April, and would be able to import close to the targeted 220,000 bpd in the current fiscal year, R.K. Singh told reporters." http://t.uani.com/1hmq6W2

Algemeiner: "Ambassador Mark Wallace, CEO of advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), called on the White House to end its 'continued characterization of those who support new Iran sanctions as dishonest warmongers.' In a statement, Wallace said, 'It is wrong for the White House to continue questioning the integrity and motives of anyone who supports more sanctions on Iran. It is nonsensical and out of bounds to say that a bipartisan majority of U.S. Senators secretly wants war with Iran.' 'Sanctions are a non-violent policy tool used to avoid war. It was, after all, President [Barack] Obama himself who, in his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, described sanctions as alternatives to violence that must be tough enough to actually change behavior.'" http://t.uani.com/1aBoqX9

Human Rights

IHR: "Three prisoners were hanged in two different Iranian prisons, reported the Iranian state media. According to the official Iranian news agency IRNA, a 45 year old prisoner was hanged in the prison of Yasouj (western Iran). The prisoner who was not identified by name was from Zabol (Sistan-Baluchistan Province) and convicted of trafficking 60 kilograms of crack, said the report." http://t.uani.com/1cZUt2E

Domestic Politics

Al-Monitor: "Iran's deputy parliament speaker, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has warned of a 'new sedition' in the 2016 parliamentary elections as a result of the makeup of President Hassan Rouhani's administration. Bahonar, the secretary-general of the conservative Front of Followers of the Imam's and the Supreme Leader's Line, told Fars News that Rouhani received nearly half of the vote because Iranians 'were tired of the eight years of the unconventional ways of the extremist Reformists [Mohammad Khatami's presidency] and eight years of [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad extremism, and that is why they voted for a moderate slogan.' Bahonar, however, said that Rouhani has organizational weaknesses that have been exploited to bring in Reformists at lower levels of management of the administration." http://t.uani.com/1hmttwd

Opinion & Analysis


UANI Executive Director David Ibsen in the Lincoln Journal Star (Nebraska): "In 2014, Nebraska has an opportunity to make an impact on a major foreign policy issue - the threat posed by Iran. It comes in the form of a new bill in Lincoln, LB77, known as the Nebraska Iran Divestment Act. The act is authored by State Sen. Bill Avery, and it puts strong new pressure on the Iranian regime. Here are the reasons why LB77 deserves your support. First, Iran is a terrorist state that has the blood of U.S. troops on its hands. Due to its support for terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, the Iranian regime has been designated by the U.S. State Department as 'the world's most active state sponsor of terrorism.' For the past decade, the government of Iran, through its Quds Force, has supplied Improvised Explosive Devices to fighters in Afghanistan and Iraq that have killed hundreds of American troops and wounded thousands, including many from Nebraska. Since combat operations began in 2003, 79 citizen-soldiers from Nebraska have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Of these 79 brave troops, at least 35 were killed by IEDs. There is no doubt that Iranian-supplied weapons were responsible for many of these deaths. Of course, that is reason enough to put new pressure on Iran. Unfortunately, the threat from the Iranian regime is multifaceted and requires us to respond to multiple dangers, none more urgent that Iran's work to develop nuclear weapons in open defiance of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions. That is where LB77 comes in. It may come as a shock to many, but through the investments of many state pension funds - including Nebraska's - millions of Americans are unwittingly investing billions of dollars in companies that help to enrich the Iranian regime, and indirectly keep its nuclear program and terrorist activities afloat. To address this problem, 24 states have passed Iran divestment bills over the past decade, prohibiting their investments from benefiting companies that are active in Iran. The Nebraska Iran Divestment Act, authored by Sen. Avery of Lincoln, with the support of Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, gives Nebraska the opportunity to become the 25th. It would prohibit Nebraska's state pension funds from investment in foreign companies that provide power production-related services or military equipment to Iran. My organization regularly works with companies on their exits from Iran. And believe me, when companies are forced choose between U.S. taxpayers and the Iranian regime, they choose the former. No responsible and profit-minded firm will jeopardize potential profits, or the good will of American consumers, by doing business with a regime that murders our fellow citizens... Divestment is not a new idea in Nebraska. In fact, Nebraska was actually a pioneer in the struggle for human rights in apartheid South Africa. In 1980, Nebraska passed America's first divestment bill targeting our state's investments in companies doing business in South Africa. It is time for us to continue Nebraska's tradition as a leader in the struggle for peace and human rights." http://t.uani.com/19rNxNg

Max Boot in Commentary: "In politics, war, sports, and other realms momentum counts for a lot. If you maintain the momentum, you can give the appearance that your victory is inevitable. This disheartens your adversaries, emboldens your side, and leads waverers to root for your cause. If, however, you lose momentum the entire process is reversed and you are put on the defensive, with numerous negative consequences. Well, guess what? The West has just lost momentum in the battle to keep Iran from going nuclear. The Obama administration claims that the deal which takes effect next week is only temporary and phased in-that in return for a partial slowdown in its nuclear program (which, according to the New York Times, will add as little as 'several weeks to the time Iran would need to acquire enough enriched uranium for a bomb') Iran will get 'only' $6 billion to $7 billion worth of sanctions relief. But Iran has won something far more valuable than that limited sanctions relief, which is valuable enough as it is to a cash-strapped regime. It has stopped the momentum of the West's sanctions and is beginning to reverse it. After having worked so hard to impose crippling economic sanctions on the Iranian regime, the U.S. is now backing off, even going so far as to implicitly recognize Iran's 'right' to enrich uranium-i.e., its 'right' to maintain breakout capacity to build a bomb within a few weeks or months. This is sending a signal to the entire world that we are no longer serious about containing Iran. Instead, we are going to accommodate it. Given that reality, the hordes of waverers and finger-to-the-wind countries which have been very reluctant to give up their business dealings with Iran are now likely to open up the spigots and let trade flow." http://t.uani.com/1dnbkO6

Suzanne Maloney in Brookings: "Since the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran more than 34 years ago, economic sanctions have been at the heart of Washington's strategy for dealing with Iran. For most of that period, sanctions had more symbolic than strategic value. All that changed over the course of the past decade, when Washington erected a far-reaching set of restrictions on Iran's access to the international financial and persuaded the world to abide by the measures and to curb their own investment and trade with Tehran. This pressure had a devastating impact on Iran's oil exports and revenues, the value of its currency, the stability of its economy as well as the confidence of its citizens. And after decades of skepticism about their utility, sanctions were widely credited with turning Tehran toward a more moderate leadership and facilitating the recent diplomatic breakthrough on the nuclear issue... To kick things off, I've assembled a few of the most commonly articulated shibboleths surrounding sanctions and tried to offer some correctives based on my own analysis, which is part of a forthcoming book on Iran's political economy... Myth 5. More sanctions will produce more concessions. Maybe. Let's be fair here: nearly all of those who oppose the new measures under discussion in the Congress - myself included - have routinely warned against ratcheting up pressure on Iran on the grounds that such tactics empower Iranian hard-liners and undercut advocates of diplomacy. Yet in practice, those same measures plainly contributed to Ahmadinejad's fall from grace and to Tehran's embrace of the more moderate Rouhani. So it's simply inaccurate to insist that all pressure is counterproductive... Myth 6. Support for additional Iran sanctions is the equivalent of support for war. No. With all due respect to the Obama administration officials who have been making this argument, it is an overstatement and, in many cases, patently untrue and unfair. It may be effective domestic politics, given the country's understandable weariness of Middle Eastern conflicts, but it is an ugly smear to accuse all those who are skeptical about the current diplomacy or who seek additional pressure on Iran of war-mongering. More to the point, the outcome of new sanctions is almost certainly not war. Tehran has come to the negotiating table despite, and because of, severe economic pressure. Rouhani's determination to achieve a deal, the speed with which he has advanced this agenda, and the flimsy pushback (by the rough-and-tumble standards of Iranian internal politics) he has received from hard-liners suggests that there is a broad and deep consensus around ending the nuclear stand-off with the West. No one should doubt Foreign Minister Zarif's sincerity when he says sanctions will end the talks, but there is a reasonable chance that Tehran will continue to seek a diplomatic resolution under almost any circumstances - there simply is no better alternative for Iranian interests. The same is true for Washington. Few in Congress are truly eager for another costly Middle Eastern conflict, and despite the tough talk from successive U.S. presidents on preventing a nuclear Iran, there is nothing automatic about military action. Even if the current diplomacy collapses, Washington and the world will have an array of alternatives for blunting Iran's nuclear advances, including many that fall short of war. That should not imply that new sanctions would be free of costs. In fact, the tortuous history of negotiating with Iran suggests that the almost certain outcome of any new pressure on Iran will be a less optimal context for negotiations. In other words, diplomacy would probably prevail, but the context and the terms would become substantially inferior to what they are today. Iranian lawmakers are already set to retaliate with their own counterproductive measures, Iran's hard-liners would direct the pain toward the Iranian people and the blame toward Washington, and at least some of our allies would see less impetus for adhering to the extraterritorial measures that have made the sanctions regime so powerful. So the end result would be greater Iranian recalcitrance and less cohesion among Washington and its partners on a path forward. Congressional supporters of new penalties should consider how that might serve U.S. interests." http://t.uani.com/19rVhil

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.





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