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Top Stories
AFP:
"The White House Tuesday dismissed an aggressive claim of victory by
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani over an interim nuclear deal, and
attempted to face down rising domestic political pressure over the pact.
Washington said Rouhani's comment that world powers were now bowing to
Tehran was a symptom of domestic politics and insisted the deal, curbing
aspects of Iran's nuclear program in return for limited sanctions relief,
hinged on its words and not its rhetoric. 'It is not surprising to us and
nor should it be surprising to you that the Iranians are describing the
agreement in a certain way towards their domestic audience,' spokesman
Jay Carney told reporters. 'It does not matter what they say, it matters
what they do.' Rouhani's comment, on his official Twitter account, played
into complaints of hawkish members of the US Congress that the deal, due
to come into force on January 20, gave too much up to Iran for too little
in return. 'Our relationship w/ the world is based on Iranian nation's
interests. In #Geneva agreement world powers surrendered to Iranian
nation's will,' the tweet said." http://t.uani.com/1drTTMd
LAT:
"The Obama administration is facing rising calls from lawmakers and
nuclear experts to release the text of its latest nuclear deal with Iran
and accompanying documents... So far, the text of the latest deal has not
been released, nor has a separate side agreement that lays out technical
and other details. Critics fear the text of the implementation agreement
may include terms that would allow Iran to secretly forge ahead with some
aspects of its nuclear program while the next phase of bargaining goes
on. On Monday, critics also began expressing concern about the
accompanying side text... Olli Heinonen, former chief inspector of the
IAEA, called for release of the 30-page side agreement, saying that
making the text public would 'clear the air.' 'I don't see anything that
should block its release,' he said, in a conference call sponsored by the
Israel Project, a pro-Israel group." http://t.uani.com/1m70HQf
CNN:
"Rep. Steny Hoyer, the No. 2 House Democrat, blasted as
'irresponsible' comments by Obama administration officials who have
suggested that lawmakers pushing for tighter sanctions on Iran are
increasing the risk of war... Hoyer bristled at any notion support for
stronger sanctions equals a push for war. 'I think that is absolutely
untrue - an irresponsible assertion and ought to be clarified and
retracted by those who have made it with the administration.' 'Nobody
believes, as far as I know, that going to war with Iran is anything but a
dangerous and objective that none of us would seek,' Hoyer said." http://t.uani.com/1eHlHMP
Sanctions
Bloomberg:
"President Hassan Rouhani will be the first Iranian leader in a
decade to visit the World Economic Forum in Davos next week, when he'll
have a chance to turn his nuclear diplomacy into deals that can boost the
economy. Rouhani, 65, will be accompanied in the Swiss city by his
foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who negotiated Iran's nuclear
deal with world powers in Geneva last November, according to an official
program announced today. They'll be looking to attract investment and
help an economy hurt by U.S. and European Union sanctions that will be
eased under the agreement, due to take force two days before Davos
starts... 'What Rouhani is doing is very much softening Iran's image,'
said Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International
Economics. 'It's a very conciliatory message, and he'll be booking as
many meetings as he can with corporate leaders.' ... Rouhani is due to
address the plenary on Jan. 23 during a session called 'Iran in the
World.' The next day, Zarif is to take part in a panel discussion titled,
'The End Game for the Middle East.'" http://t.uani.com/1hqFxfL
LAT:
"In public, the White House has unleashed scathing criticism of
Senate backers of a bill that would slap additional sanctions on Iran,
calling the bipartisan effort a march toward war that could upend
negotiations to halt the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions. But
privately the political divide between President Obama and his Democratic
allies may be less dramatic than it appears and more an exercise in
political theater. Both the administration and the senators stand to
benefit by staking out seemingly opposing views, which could work to
achieve the common goal of a nuclear-free Iran without upsetting the
delicate talks underway by the U.S., Iran and five major foreign powers.
The public standoff allows the White House to send a strong message to
the Iranians that Obama is willing to confront allies in his party to
protect the interim agreement reached in November, expected to go into
effect Monday, which requires the Iranians to halt some of their nuclear
activity in exchange for modest sanctions relief while a final deal is
negotiated. It's also a not-so-subtle reminder to Iran that if it reneges
on the deal, U.S. lawmakers are poised to get tougher... But an actual
vote on the bill does not appear imminent and, in fact, may never come.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has no immediate plan to bring
the bill for debate before the president's Jan. 28 State of the Union
address, and the chamber's calendar is likely to prevent any action until
February at the earliest, or even March, those involved say." http://t.uani.com/19uiUa7
WFB:
"Former Defense Secretary Bob Gates rebuked the White House for
resisting new time released Iranian sanctions Tuesday in an interview on
PBS News Hour. The former Secretary of Defense said the six month
deadline for implementation of the nuclear deal needs to be firm. 'The
Iranians are world class experts in slow rolling their negotiating
partners or adversaries. [...] There's a risk of this negotiation
dragging out as the Iranians continue certain parts of their nuclear
program,' Gates warned. Additionally, Gates argued the deal needs to have
enough teeth such that Iran does not arrive at the threshold of becoming
a nuclear weapons state. Although new sanctions right now would be a
strategic mistake, Gates said, passing sanctions that would only take
effect if Iran failed to comply with the nuclear agreement would
'strengthen the president's negotiating hand.'" http://t.uani.com/1j7iaej
Chosun Ilbo:
"The U.S. and EU have decided to ease some economic sanctions
against Iran for six months starting next Monday as the Middle Eastern
country rolls back part of its nuclear program. Korean companies have
pricked up their ears since that heralds increased business
opportunities, since the measure affects cars, precious metals and
petrochemical products. Car parts makers will likely benefit noticeably
as they posted a strong performance in trade with Iran before
international sanctions came into force in July. Building firms and plant
makers are also preparing to return to the Iranian market, while the
petrochemical industry is seeking more imports of oil from Iran and
exports of refined oil products to the country. Until 2012, Korea was
Iran's fourth largest trade partner. Trade volume between the two sides
grew for a decade before plummeting in July, when Korea had to stop
exports of its flagship products such as cars and steel due to U.S.
financial sanctions based on the National Defense Authorization Act
involving countries that import oil from Iran." http://t.uani.com/1eSB6s7
Trend:
"Iran significantly decreased production of two models of Renault
automobiles in the first nine months of the current Iranian calendar year
(started on March 21, 2013), Fars News Agency reported on Jan. 14. Iran
Khodro manufactured 380 Tondar 90s in the ninth calendar month (November
23 - December 22), which is 86.9 percent less than the same month
previous year. Production of the Tondar 90 in Pars Khodro also faced a
76.3 per cent decrease in the mentioned month, compared to the previous
year's figure. Pars Khodro also produced 95 Megane sedans in the ninth
calendar month, which is 79.6 per cent less than the previous year. Pars
Khodro totally produced 12,621 Renault models in the first three quarters
of the current year, which is 71.8 percent last than the same period of
time last year." http://t.uani.com/1dQjSJD
Terrorism
AP:
"The United States is condemning a visit by Iran's foreign minister
to lay a wreath at the grave of a former Hezbollah leader the U.S. says
was behind deadly terrorist attacks. White House spokeswoman Caitlin
Hayden says inhumane violence perpetrated by Hezbollah's Imad Mugniyah
had deadly and destabilizing effects for Lebanon and the region. She says
Mugniyah is responsible for 'heinous acts of terrorism' that killed
hundreds, including Americans. Hayden says Iranian Foreign Minister
Mohammed Zarif's decision to visit Mugniyah's grave sends the wrong
message and worsens regional tensions." http://t.uani.com/1a6QOlN
WSJ:
"Four Hezbollah members will go on trial Thursday over their alleged
involvement in a former Lebanese premier's 2005 killing, as the country's
political camps-frustrated by splits over Syria's civil war-work to form
a government and fill a political vacuum... The first trial of the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon begins nearly five years after the body was
formed, primarily to investigate and try suspects in the Beirut seaside
bombing that killed 23 people including former Prime Minister Rafiq
Hariri, on Feb. 14, 2005. It is a landmark for a trial that faced years
of delays and complications-including an attack on investigators and the
assassination of a Lebanese security official assisting in the
investigation." http://t.uani.com/1eDoYur
Syria Conflict
AFP:
"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met the foreign minister of Iran,
a key ally of his regime, in Damascus on Wednesday, state news agency
SANA said. 'President Assad is meeting Mohammad Javad Zarif, foreign minister
of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and his delegation,' Syria's SANA
reported. Zarif arrived from Jordan, where he had been as part of a
regional tour that also included a visit to Lebanon on Monday. His
meeting with Assad comes less than a week before the so-called Geneva II
peace conference, which is aimed at ending the conflict in Syria that has
killed 130,000 people in nearly three years. Earlier, SANA had quoted
Zarif as saying the purpose of his visit 'was to help ensure that the
international Geneva II conference on Syria brings about results that are
in the interests of the Syrian people.' Zarif also said he would 'work to
coordinate a position... that would restore calm and security to Syria,'
while urging 'all parties to battle extremism and terrorism, which are
threats to us all.'" http://t.uani.com/1eDlWGw
Human Rights
IHR:
"Seven prisoners were hanged in three different Iranian cities
yesterday 14. January, reported the Iranian state media... One man was
hanged in public in Saveh (southwest of Tehran), reported the state run
Iranian news agency ISNA. The man who was identified as "Mehrdad
A." (40 year old) originally from Kermanshah province (western
Iran), was convicted of murdering two people with a 'Kalashnikov rifle'
in 2010 in Saveh. He was sentenced to 'twice retribution' in public, and
his death sentence was carried out publicly in Hedayat area of
Saveh." http://t.uani.com/K2gFiV
IHR:
"According to reliable sources in Iran 12 prisoners were hanged in
the Rajaishahr prison of Karaj (west of Tehran) today." http://t.uani.com/1dvDBn7
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI Advisory
Board Member Walter Russell Mead in The American Interest:
"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had some
contradictory announcements to make when he visited Lebanon this week.
First, Zarif paid his respects and laid a wreath at the tomb of his
fallen comrade Imad Mughniyeh in Beirut. Mughniyeh was a senior Hezbollah
commander who was killed in 2008 by a car bomb of unknown origin. He is
deemed responsible for orchestrating the 1983 bombings of the U.S.
Embassy and Marine barracks in Lebanon that killed hundreds of Americans.
Zarif then met with Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of Hezbollah, and several
Lebanese government officials before giving a press conference. At the
press conference, he announced Iran's commitment to 'combatting
terrorism,' which is a 'dangerous phenomenon' that requires
'international cooperation.' It might seem strange for the Iranian
Foreign Minister to first pay his respects to a deceased mass murderer
and terrorist, then hold a meeting with the head of one of the most
powerful terrorist organizations in the world, then claim to be committed
to eradicating terrorism across the Middle East. But there's a method to
his madness: Iran is using the discussions on its nuclear program to
project an image of moderation even as it dramatically steps up its
campaign to establish itself as the leading power in the Middle East. The
strategy is working, in part because Washington is afraid to call Tehran
on it. Desperate for a nuclear deal (reflecting both President Obama's
deep convictions about the importance of non-proliferation and the
administration's headlong rush for the exit from a Middle East it has
signally failed to stabilize), Washington appears ready to swallow any
toads Iran wants to jam down its throat. While officials from the P5+1
countries congratulate each other on an 'interim agreement' and a
'temporary freeze' on Iran's nuclear enrichment program, the Iranian
negotiating team claims that there is a secret side deal with details on
Iran's right to continue nuclear development over the next few months.
While President Obama fights to prevent new Iran sanctions, saying they
would be a 'march toward war,' Iran is stepping up its military and economic
support for Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Damascus, and Shiite militia
groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain. While Washington tries to spin
the interim agreement with Iran as a step forward for 'peace and
diplomacy,' Iran's Foreign Minister pays his respects to notorious mass
murderer (of Americans!), and Iran's 'moderate' new President Hassan
Rouhani went on Twitter to boast that 'world powers surrendered to the
Iranian nation's will.' Some have claimed that these actions by Iranian
officials signal 'insincerity,' but we don't see anything insincere here.
Iran sincerely wants to establish an Iran-dominated Shia Crescent from
Basra and Baghdad in Iraq across Syria and into Lebanon, and it sincerely
believes that the Obama Administration is weak, vacillating, and
desperate enough for the facade of a nuclear agreement to let that
happen. Iran sincerely believes that the Sunni world has never been
in such disarray or so weak; given all this, a sketchy nuclear deal with
the United States that would cement Iran in place as the region's
dominant power looks genuinely attractive to the mullahs in Tehran. Why
wouldn't it? As long as Iran thinks it can have it all, we won't be
testing whether it is really prepared to settle for a fair compromise in
the Middle East. As long as this administration keeps the nuclear talks
rolling and enforces a rigid separation between Iran's activities beyond
the talks and progress on sanctions, we won't know Iran's real bottom
line. Franklin Roosevelt once said that you can't turn a tiger into a
kitten by stroking it. President Obama appears to disagree. Time will
tell who was right." http://t.uani.com/K25NBE
UANI Advisory
Board Member Jack David in NRO: "The world's major
powers - the U.S., the other permanent members of the Security Council,
and Germany (the so-called P5+1) - celebrated a dubious accomplishment
this week: They have reached agreement with Iran on implementation of the
interim, six-month nuclear deal they worked out with Iran in November,
and the six-month term of the deal starts next week. The November interim
deal was awful, and the implementation agreement just announced is not an
improvement; it is a sequel, and the deal remains terrible for the U.S.,
for every country in the Middle East, and for anyone who treasures peace.
The U.S. and its partners said that Iran made 'concessions' in the
November interim agreement. These concessions are now to be implemented
starting January 20, though the implementation date for some of them is
still unclear. Whenever - if ever - they are implemented, they remain
unimpressive: Iran will stop enriching uranium beyond 5 percent; it will
install no additional centrifuges; it will convert its 100 pounds or so
of 20 percent-enriched uranium (which is convertible into weapons-grade
uranium more rapidly than uranium enriched to 5 percent) to something
harder to convert into weapons-grade uranium. Meanwhile, Iran has still
not agreed to do any of the following:
- Dismantle
any of the thousands of centrifuges it has installed and continues
to operate;
- End its
development of ever more capable centrifuges;
- Send any of
its 20 percent enriched uranium out of the country;
- Close the
nuclear facilities that will soon provide it with plutonium with
which to make nuclear weapons;
- Stop its
testing of long-range missiles; or
- Cease its
support of terrorist activities by Hezbollah and others.
The Obama administration and other advocates of the deal
argue that Iran will allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors
to visit Iran's still-operating nuclear facilities. However, while Iran
may have agreed to allow inspection of some of the facilities where its
centrifuges are enriching uranium, Iran has reportedly excepted its
Parchin military site (and other military sites), where nuclear weapons
are being developed. Even if Iran had agreed to allow the military sites
to be inspected, given its long history of preventing IAEA inspectors
from doing their jobs and of flouting obligations regarding its nuclear
program, the value of this promise should be discounted to zero." http://t.uani.com/1dQlSld
Michael Doran
& Max Boot in NYT: "A great deal of diplomatic
attention over the next few months will be focused on whether the
temporary nuclear deal with Iran can be transformed into a full-blown
accord. President Obama has staked the success of his foreign policy on
this bold gamble. But discussion about the nuclear deal has diverted
attention from an even riskier bet that Obama has placed: the idea that
Iran can become a cooperative partner in regional security. Although they
won't say so publicly, Mr. Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry surely
dream of a 'Nixon to China' masterstroke. They are quietly pursuing a
strategic realignment that, they believe, will end decades of semi-open warfare
between Iran and the United States and their respective allies. In our
view, the Obama administration wants to see in its place a 'concert' of
great powers - Russia, America, the European nations and Iran - working
together to stabilize the Middle East as in the 19th century, when the
'Concert of Europe' worked together to stabilize that Continent. As a
first step, Mr. Kerry has made no secret of his desire to involve Iran in
Syrian peace talks, scheduled to convene next week in Geneva. And much
more than previous administrations, this one has refrained from
countering Iranian machinations in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. There are two
main reasons for this attempted shift. One is simply the desire of the
president to extricate the United States from the Middle East. The other
reason, arguably more important, is fear of Al Qaeda: The White House
undoubtedly sees Iran and its Shiite allies as potential partners in the
fight against Sunni jihadism. The Obama strategy is breathtakingly
ambitious. It is also destined to fail. First, it ignores the obvious
fact that, unlike China at the time of President Richard M. Nixon's
diplomacy in the 1970s, Iran does not share a common enemy that would
force it to unite with America. Though Iran's proxies are fighting Sunni
extremists in a number of theaters, Iran itself has cooperated with Al
Qaeda and other Sunni extremists, such as Hamas and the Taliban, when it
has served its interests to do so. Iran's rulers simply do not regard Al
Qaeda as an existential threat on a par with the 'Great Satan' (as they
see the United States). By contrast, Mao did see the Soviet Union as a
sufficient threat to justify an alliance with the 'capitalist
imperialists' in Washington. The second major problem is that Iran has
always harbored dreams of regional hegemony. There is no sign that the
election of the 'moderate' cleric Hassan Rouhani as president has changed
anything. On the contrary, Iran is stepping up its support for militants
in the region. There have been reports recently that Iran is smuggling
sophisticated long-range missiles to Hezbollah via Syria and that it sent
a ship, intercepted by the Bahraini authorities, loaded with armaments
intended for Shiite opponents of the Sunni government in Bahrain. Iran
under President Rouhani has done nothing to lessen its support for the
regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria either. It has, in fact, gone 'all
in,' sending large numbers of its own operatives and its Hezbollah
allies, along with copious munitions, to help the regime stay in power. Iran's
power play is engendering a violent pushback from Sunnis increasingly
radicalized in the process. This is the third and final problem that will
doom Obama's outreach to Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1a6N5EW
Danielle Pletka,
Frederick W. Kagan & J. Matthew McInnis in AEI:
"A review of the soft-power strategies of both the United States and
the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Middle East and Afghanistan makes
clear a disturbing fact: Tehran has a coherent, if sometimes ineffective
strategy to advance its aims in the Middle East and around the world. The
United States does not. This project began with two tour d'horizon
reviews of Iranian activities throughout areas Iran has, by its actions,
defined as its sphere of influence. From the Persian Gulf through the
Levant and into neighboring Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic has
consistently invested in soft- and hard-power activities designed not
only to extend its own influence but also to limit both American and
hostile Arab aims. And while the latter part of the Ahmadinejad
administration saw waning rewards for Tehran's efforts-a result more of
the growing Sunni-Shia divide in the Middle East than of changes in
strategy-the continued existence of a coherent Iranian strategy to
dominate or destabilize the region should not be ignored. This report,
the culmination of a process of both examining Iranian actions and
surveying American policy, policy responses, and soft-power strategies in
the region, focuses on the US side of the equation. Despite the Obama
administration's commitment to replace hard power with smart power, what
the United States pursues in the Middle East is a set of incoherent,
ineffective, and increasingly irrelevant policies... Widespread fear of
Iranian expansionism-and of Tehran's pursuit of nuclear weapons
capability- leaves numerous opportunities for the US to build upon. If
the Obama administration decided to pursue a strategy to compete with
Iran in the soft-power realm, it could realize that strategy fairly
rapidly. Iran now pursues, on the cheap, cost-imposition tactics in
Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. It does so without hope of
imposing Iranian will; rather, it takes advantage of existing
opportunities, such as beleaguered Shia communities. The United States
pursues no corollary strategies. Pushing back on Iran throughout the
Middle East and into South Asia serves several purposes simultaneously:
it limits the spread of Iranian influence, pushes back on Iranian support
for terrorism, and provides additional leverage to the United States in
negotiations over the nuclear issue. Indeed, such policies may well be
the most significant contribution President Obama could make to reduce
the likelihood of major conflict with Iran. This project is intended to
outline a strategy built on soft power to compete with Iran's activities
in the Middle East, with a view to containing the Islamic Republic with a
bulwark of friendly states tied to the United States by common interests
and purpose. Such a strategy is still urgently required, notwithstanding
the current negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Those negotiations,
on the contrary, have further eroded the strength of America's
relationships with key partners in the region, requiring more effort to
maintain them rather than less. It may well be that Iran will be willing
to negotiate limits to its nuclear program; however, the Islamic Republic
does not limit itself to a strategy reliant solely on nuclear weapons
power. It has pursued a sophisticated and multidimensional soft- and
hard-power strategy in the Middle East. It is time for the United States
to do the same." http://t.uani.com/1d4woaZ
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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