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Top Stories
TIME:
"Now for the hard part. The interim pact on Iran's nuclear program,
finally sealed on Sunday by Tehran and six major powers led by the United
States, takes effect on Jan. 20... The next stage of negotiations is
aimed at a comprehensive agreement that satisfies both sides without
either losing face. No one is optimistic it can be achieved... How long
will the negotiations toward a final agreement take? The interim pact
calls for six months, but can be extended to a year, the time Araghchi
and others call far more likely. But further extensions may also be
possible... 'There's almost a dynamic of almost endless interim deals
which has been worked into the interim deal itself, which is in fact a
cause for concern,' says Emily B. Landau, a non-proliferation specialist
at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
'And everybody knows this comprehensive deal is going to be a 100 times
more difficult to reach than the interim deal.' ... Yet even a former
Obama adviser on Iran has suggested that more sanctions may well be
inevitable. Speaking as the interim talks were getting under way, Gary
Samore, the White House coordinator for weapons of mass destruction
during Obama's first term, told reporters: 'I fear that one of the
reasons why these negotiations will not proceed to a comprehensive
agreement is that the Supreme Leader may very well miscalculate and
believe Iran is in a stronger position than it really is, and it may be
necessary for the United States and its allies to proceed with additional
sanctions before he recognizes the need to make any really significant
concessions.'" http://t.uani.com/L9Pxi2
FT:
"The slow pace of cultural and political change under centrist
president Hassan Rouhani has angered reformists, who expect more from the
man they backed in last June's presidential poll, even as they blame
fundamentalists for blocking the government's moves to ease censorship
and suppression. Mr Rouhani owes his unexpected victory to the pro-reform
groups and leaders who mobilised people to vote for him. In return, he
promised reconciliation with the world through the resolution of the
nuclear crisis and better times for an economy long battered by
international sanctions... But reformist hopes for a cultural flowering
and an easing of internet censorship have not been met. Since Mr Rouhani
came to power, the judiciary has not only cancelled last week's gathering
but stopped reformist journalists from publishing new newspapers. Social
networks such as Facebook and Twitter - and from last month VChat -
continue to be blocked. Some MPs have criticised government support for
women singing solo as propagating anti-Islamic mores." http://t.uani.com/LjhHb1
IHR:
"Six prisoners were hanged in two different Iranian prisons early
this morning January 15... Yesterday 18 people were hanged in different
Iranian cities, seven of which were announced by the official Iranian
sources." http://t.uani.com/K2xhXD
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
AFP:
"The head of the UN atomic watchdog said Wednesday he has called an
extraordinary meeting of the agency's board on January 24 to discuss how
to verify Iran's upcoming nuclear freeze. 'I have requested that a
meeting of the board of governors be convened on 24 January,'
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano said in a statement.
He said he would 'consult' with the 35-nation board regarding a request
by Iran and six world powers to the IAEA to 'undertake monitoring and
verification of nuclear-related measures in relation to the Joint Plan of
Action' signed on November 24... The extra work 'requires a significant
amount of money and manpower.... The IAEA's budget is very, very tight. I
don't think we can cover everything from our own budget,' Amano had told
reporters in late November." http://t.uani.com/1j8ZKKc
AFP:
"Iran's nuclear chief said Wednesday experts from Arab neighbours
across the Gulf, concerned about the safety of Iran's sole nuclear power
plant, are welcome to visit the facility, IRNA news agency reported. 'We
are ready for the visit of nuclear experts of Persian Gulf countries to
Bushehr nuclear power plant,' Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying when
asked how Tehran would tackle their worries. Gulf Arab countries have
often raised concern over Bushehr's reliability and the risk of
radioactive leaks in case of a major earthquake, as well as a possible
military dimension to Iran's nuclear drive. 'We... again express our
readiness, for consultation between our country's experts and the experts
from Persian Gulf countries, so that they can hold scientific and technical
talks on the Bushehr power plant's safety issues,' Salehi said." http://t.uani.com/1humfX1
Congressional
Sanctions Debate
AP:
"President Barack Obama implored Democratic senators Wednesday to
put off new sanctions against Iran that he warned could derail delicate
nuclear talks... An evening session in the East Room of the White House
offered Obama an opportunity to deliver a message privately and in person
that his administration has been making publicly for weeks: Give budding
negotiations with Tehran time to play out before turning the screw
further. A six-month deal between Iran and world powers takes effect next
week, but prominent senators in both parties have balked at the deal and
want even tougher sanctions... 'The president did speak passionately
about how we have to seize this opportunity,' Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.,
said. 'If Iran isn't willing in the end to make the decisions that are
necessary to make it work, he'll be ready to sign the bill to tighten
those sanctions. But we've got to give this six months.'" http://t.uani.com/1j8ZYAV
Daily Beast:
"Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein faced
criticism Wednesday for comments that some thought implied a new Iran
sanctions bill could put Israel in charge of U.S. foreign policy.
Feinstein objected to moving forward on a new Iran sanctions bill
sponsored by 59 senators, including 16 Democrats, and co-authored by Sen
Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Mark Kirk (R-IL). The California senator said
the bill could imperil ongoing negotiations between Iran and the West,
harm U.S. diplomatic credibility, break up the current international
sanctions coalition, and allow Tehran to argue 'we are interested in
regime change.' 'Candidly, in my view, it is a march toward war,' she
said, echoing the White House argument that senators who support the Iran
sanctions bill have a secret pro-war agenda... 'While I recognize and
share Israel's concern, we cannot let Israel determine when and where the
United States goes to war,' she said. 'By stating that the United States
should provide military support to Israel in a formal resolution should
it attack Iran, I fear that is how this bill is going to be
interpreted.'" http://t.uani.com/1huuemO
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters:
"A delegation of some of France's biggest companies will visit Iran
next month to seek business as relations thaw with western powers, the
head of the employers' union said on Wednesday... The French Medef
bosses' association has organized the visit for February 2-5, its
president Pierre Gattaz told a news conference, confirming a report about
the trip in the Wall Street Journal. Gattaz declined to say which
companies were sending executives, but the newspaper said they included
GDF Suez, Alstom, Veolia Environnement and Safran. Former French
ambassador to Iran Francois Nicoullaud told Reuters that French firms
that operated in Iran before the sanctions wanted to return. He cited
Renault, PSA Peugeot Citroen, Airbus Group , Credit Agricole, Societe
Generale and BNP Paribas. Peugeot and Renault already sent executives to
Iran for an automotive conference last year." http://t.uani.com/KliNlb
Bloomberg:
"Europe is days from suspending a ban on reinsuring tankers hauling
Iranian oil, a measure that helped cut the nation's crude exports by more
than 50 percent when it was implemented. The six-month relaxation starts
Jan. 20 and will allow companies following European Union law to reinsure
tankers shipping Iran's oil to India, China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey
and Taiwan, an EU official told reporters in Brussels today, speaking on
condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to be quoted by name.
The step affects most of the world fleet because 90 percent of all
merchant vessels are covered by members of the London-based International
Group of P&I Clubs... 'Countries that were finding it difficult to
lift their existing quotas of oil will be able to lift the oil that they
are permitted to lift easily,' Abhishek Deshpande, an analyst at Natixis
SA in London, said by e-mail. Still, buyer states must avoid increasing
imports so that they don't breach U.S. rules that remain in force, he
said... Europe's ban hindered shipments to countries including
India." http://t.uani.com/1hunANl
Reuters:
"Japanese crude buyers are set to switch back to private insurance
providers for transportation of Iranian oil, after relief from some EU
sanctions goes into effect next week, industry and government sources
said. Under the interim deal reached between Tehran and six world powers
in November, the European Union on Jan. 20 will suspend for six months a
ban on insuring and transporting Iranian oil. Since 2012 when tough EU
and U.S. sanctions were slapped on Iran over its ambitious nuclear
programme, Japan has been providing a sovereign guarantee of up to $7.6
billion in liability per tanker to keep oil trade with Tehran going. If
the revision in EU regulations is implemented, the Japan P&I Club
(JPI), the country's main ship insurer against pollution and personal
injury claims, would be able to resume the normal coverage of $7.6
billion for a tanker carrying Iranian oil, a JPI official said... Japan's
imports of Iranian oil in January-November 2013 fell by 4.6 percent from
a year earlier to 178,539 barrels per day (bpd), trade ministry data
showed last month." http://t.uani.com/1j8WFdc
WSJ:
"An easing of Iran sanctions would give an economic boost to the
United Arab Emirates and the Islamic Republic's other neighbors in the
Arab Gulf region, an economy ministry official said on Thursday. The
comments by ministry undersecretary Abdullah al Saleh followed a
pronouncement earlier this week by Dubai ruler Shiekh Mohammed bin Rashid
Al Maktoum that 'everybody will benefit' if long-standing economic
sanctions against Iran are lifted. Dubai has historically been a
major trading partner with Iran, which lies a boat trip of less than 100
kilometers across the Gulf. The sanctions have put a major dent in that
commerce, however: the value of trade between Dubai and Iran fell from
$9.8 billion to $6.81 billion between 2011 and 2012 alone, according to
official statistics." http://t.uani.com/1m8Pw9E
WSJ:
"Last week, Sri Lanka, which has been importing Abu Dhabi and Omani
crude as a replacement for Iranian blends, said it plans to revert to
buying most of its oil from Iran once the E.U. and U.S. sanctions are
scaled back... Mr. Yapa said that if compromise is reached then Sri
Lanka, which stopped buying around 41,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude
and has previously complained that Western sanctions punish countries
that depend on the crude, would see its oil sector recover. Before the
crippling sanctions started to bite, Iran used to offer 90-day repayment
terms, and had pledged more than $1 billion in aid to modernise and
expand the Sri Lanka's refining capacity. Oil sanctions relief would also
help Sri Lanka double its imports from Iran for the expansion of its
refinery." http://t.uani.com/1deYsbI
Reuters:
"In November 2013, the US State Department extended six-month Iran
sanctions waivers to Turkey, among other countries, in exchange for their
reduced purchases of Iranian crude oil earlier this year. Under the
Geneva accord signed that month, the U.S. and five other countries agreed
to suspend efforts to further reduce Iran's crude oil sales, allowing
consuming countries to continue buying their 'current average amounts of
crude oil'. In 9M13, Iraq became Tupras's principal crude oil source by
supplying nearly 28% of its crude oil, while Iran supplied 25% of
Tupras's total crude, down from 45% in 2011. Tupras's favourable location
and coastal refineries give it access to a variety of crude
sources." http://t.uani.com/1maKFrz
Sanctions
Enforcement
AFP:
"Iran is still a 'perilous' place for foreign companies to do
business because of sanctions unaffected by the recent interim nuclear
deal, a senior US administration official said on Wednesday during a
visit to Rome. The six-month agreement only provides for the easing of
limited sanctions and the unblocking of some frozen Iranian assets abroad
and foreign firms should not 'over-interpret' its scope, the official
said. 'Businesses need to take into account the legal and reputational
risk of doing business with Iran', he said, speaking on condition of
anonymity. The official added that Italy had been identified by
Washington as one of the countries with historic and current trade ties
with Iran and pointed out that Tehran saw Italy as a possible 'gateway'
to Europe. Italian oil major ENI, along with other foreign oil firms,
should 'convey to their partners in the oil sector that they are not
going in now,' he said. The US is engaged in 'an ongoing effort to visit
key partners to continue to ensure that the sanctions regime that has
been built over the past 5-10 years remains robust, remains in place,' he
said." http://t.uani.com/1dwAkCC
Syria Conflict
AFP:
"Russia denied on Thursday it had a 'hidden agenda' on Syria as it
launched a fresh round of crisis diplomacy by hosting the Iranian and
Syrian foreign ministers ahead of peace talks in Switzerland. Iranian
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in the Russian capital late
Wednesday on the same jet as Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem. Zarif
met Sergei Lavrov on Thursday and the Russian foreign minister was due to
hold talks with Muallem separately on Friday. The three sides are working
to come up with a joint stance that would keep Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad in power after next week's talks. Iran's ambassador to Moscow,
Mehdi Sanaie, told the Interfax news agency that the three diplomats
would meet for joint talks later in the day. 'This does not mean that we
have some tri-party (peace) draft,' Lavrov told reporters after his talks
with Zarif. 'We have nothing to hide,' said Lavrov. 'We have no hidden
agenda.'" http://t.uani.com/1j1xeYt
WSJ:
"Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is lobbying Middle Eastern
heads of state to accept Tehran's position on Syria ahead of an
international conference intended to find a diplomatic solution to the
war there. Although Tehran hasn't been invited to the meeting, which is
set to begin next week in Geneva, Mr. Zarif this week met with Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad, the prime ministers of Lebanon and Iraq and
the king of Jordan. He plans to travel to Russia on Thursday. The
meetings signal Tehran will continue to play a vital role in Syria, whose
regime Iran has steadfastly supported with military, financial and
political backing, countering Gulf country support for Syria's rebels,
including jihadists. 'The Islamic Republic sees it necessary ahead of the
Geneva conference to meet with important regional countries to coordinate
a positive policy for returning peace to Syria,' Mr. Zarif said in
Damascus on Wednesday, after meeting with Mr. Assad." http://t.uani.com/1deQxLs
WSJ:
"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday that Iran
would 'inevitably' take part in any resolution to the civil war in Syria,
as the Iranian and Syrian foreign ministers began a round of meetings
with top Russian officials in Moscow. After a meeting with Iranian
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Mr. Lavrov said Iran should take
part in an international peace conference aimed at finding a diplomatic
solution to the war. 'We are proceeding on the basis that Iran should and
inevitably will be part of a set of measures to settle the Syria
problems,' Mr. Lavrov told reporters. Mr. Lavrov will meet with Syrian
Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem Thursday, while Mr. Zarif will meet
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mr. al-Moallem arrived on the same
airplane as Mr. Zarif, and the three foreign ministers will hold a joint
meeting later Thursday, Interfax news agency reported... 'Our relations
with Iran are moving to a new level, and we have a productive dialogue
with President Hasan Rouhani and members of the Iranian government on the
issue of expanding bilateral relations,' Mr. Putin said Thursday at a
ceremony for new ambassadors to Moscow, including one from Iran, to
present their credentials. 'The potential of mutually beneficial Iranian
and Russian ties are immense, and have barely been touched.'" http://t.uani.com/1j8ZpqM
Domestic
Politics
NPR:
"Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has staked out a more moderate
tone internationally, but he hasn't yet kept his campaign promises
domestically. At the same time, nuclear talks with the West are
encouraging. Steve Inskeep talks to Thomas Erdbrink, Tehran Bureau Chief
for The New York Times, for the latest on the mood on the ground in
Iran." http://t.uani.com/1d5mxSg
WashPost:
"Days before an interim deal on Iran's nuclear program is set to
take effect, President Hassan Rouhani embarked this week on his first
domestic trip since taking office last year, traveling to a southern
province whose troubles highlight the country's lingering internal
challenges. In a speech here in Khuzestan province's capital Tuesday
kicking off his visit, Rouhani reiterated his belief that Iran must
improve its relations with the rest of the world. But he also appeared
mindful of the criticism that his presidency has focused too much on
foreign policy, declaring, 'We need to get past inflation, stagnation,
high prices and unemployment and help unite this society.' ... On
Tuesday, thousands of people filled Ahvaz's Mosalla mosque to hear
Rouhani deliver the main speech of his visit, part of it in Arabic. Many
held up pictures of relatives who had been killed in the 1980-1988 war with
Iraq. Others wrote their complaints and requests, along with their names
and addresses, on sheets of paper, hoping that members of Rouhani's team
would collect them. After the speech, many of the notes were discarded on
the floor of the empty mosque, their contents reflecting Ahvaz's troubled
story. The most common pleas were for clean air, drinking water, lower
prices and jobs." http://t.uani.com/1d9Nb94
Al-Monitor:
"Spokesperson for Iran's judiciary Mohsen Ejei criticized Culture
Minister Ali Jannati for an interview he gave to Al Jazeera English,
saying that the culture minister is "not at the level" to
comment on the judiciary's affairs. In the interview, which took place in
Doha and aired last week, Jannati, son of powerful Guardian Council head
hard-line cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, said, 'President Hassan Rouhani
is making more room for freedom of the press.' When asked if there would
be no more arrests and newspaper closings under his ministry, Jannati
said the administration will work to create more freedom for writers and
artists but, 'Part of these activities fall outside of our
responsibilities, and in some cases, the judiciary and courts get
involved, and that is out of our control.' ... Jannati's interview caused
a stir on Iranian social media mostly because of his comments that
Facebook restrictions will 'sooner or later' be lifted, given that a
number of Iranians, including himself, use it. Iran's judiciary, however,
was critical of Jannati's comments about their role in the country."
http://t.uani.com/19wJ9Nh
AP:
"With a presence in nearly every city and town across Iran, the
paramilitary Basij volunteer corps has an ever-increasing influence on
life in the Islamic Republic. Authorities created the Basij, which means
mobilization in Persian, just after the country's 1979 Islamic Republic.
It is part of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard... Basij branches can
be found in all governmental bodies, universities and schools. Volunteers
often enjoy favorable treatment from the government, particularly in
securing jobs in the public sector. Here's a gallery of images by
Associated Press photographer Ebrahim Noroozi showing Basij volunteers
training in Iran." http://t.uani.com/1i1dIO2
Opinion &
Analysis
Maseh Zarif in
CNN: "Obama administration officials have been
preening since the announcement that the November 2013 'Joint Plan of
Action' (JPA) deal with Iran will be implemented beginning January
20. But the credibility of the deal - and the negotiators that
struck it - is in trouble for one simple reason: The JPA fails to
verifiably eliminate Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons. Or more
succinctly, in Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's words: 'In Geneva
agreement world powers surrendered to Iranian nation's will.' It became
apparent during negotiations last year that the administration was ready
for a deal that left Iran with considerable options in developing a
nuclear weapon. The 'first step' agreement did nothing to force Iran to
address weaponization-related activities or its pursuit of ballistic
missiles, which could serve as delivery vehicles for a nuclear warhead.
And over-reliance on Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic
Energy Agency will be another problem. Indeed, Tehran just postponed a
forthcoming meeting with the IAEA on weaponization questions. Uranium
enrichment and other related projects will continue unchecked, despite
officials' arguments that Iran's nuclear fuel cycle activities would be
halted in significant ways. Indeed, a senior administration official conceded
this week that the testing and feeding of advanced-generation centrifuges
will be allowed under the deal's implementation plan. The Iranians will,
as a result, continue to improve their ability to produce enriched
uranium more efficiently. After a reporter subsequently asked why it was
not preferred that such research be halted, the U.S. official responded:
'Well, I mean, one can always imagine other things, but that's the
arrangement that was made.' The inherent message - 'we took what we could
get' - is another sign of weakness for an administration already
hemorrhaging credibility. In practical terms, this approach will embolden
the Iranians to continue extracting important concessions and to exploit
the forthcoming implementation period in ways that could negate the
claimed merits of the agreement. The prospects that some of the flaws
inherent in the first step will be resolved at a later stage are dim.
Most significantly, language agreed upon for the outline of a potential
final deal suggested that core elements of Iran's nuclear weapons
program, most notably uranium enrichment, could remain intact. The
administration's positions and negotiating record thus far demonstrate
its emphasis on process rather than substance and its prioritization of a
deal over achieving an outcome that prevents Iran from getting nuclear
weapons. An overarching but related problem for the administration is its
unwillingness to acknowledge and confront the broader issue. The regime
and its leadership remain fundamentally hostile to the U.S. worldview.
They pursue a regional agenda that is inimical to American interests and
those of our allies and partners. One only need review some of what the
Iranian regime and its agents have been up to over the last several
months to understand that... There will inevitably be a great deal of
noise and misdirection over the coming months. For all that might change,
a great deal will likely remain the same. For Iran, the period during the
scheduled implementation of the JPA will be reminiscent of the period
before it: the regime's leadership will seek to maintain and develop
their nuclear weapons program and options, weaken the sanctions regime,
and attempt to advance efforts to dominate the broader Middle East at the
expense of American influence and interests. Unless the Obama
administration confronts these realities and works to prevent Iran's
pursuit of its ambitions, it will lose the next six months as it has lost
the last six months." http://t.uani.com/1kE0YPe
Thomas Joscelyn in
The Daily Beast: "During his visit to Lebanon on
January 13, Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif
Khonsari placed a wreath at the tomb of Imad Mugniyah and then bowed his
head in reverence. Zarif's move was sure to raise eyebrows as Mugniyah
was, until his demise in Damascus in 2008, a longtime Hezbollah commander
and an innovator in anti-American terrorism. Indeed, the White House
chastised the Iranian official in a statement pointing out that Mugniyah
was 'responsible for heinous acts of terrorism that killed hundreds of
innocent people, including Americans.' Coming on the heels of Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani's declaration on Twitter that the 'world powers
[have] surrendered to Iranian nation's will,' Zarif's gesture can be read
as a thumb in the West's eye. Zarif decided to honor America's archenemy
at a time when the U.S. and its allies are attempting to broker a nuclear
deal with Iran that will reduce tensions. If that was not Zarif's intent,
then he was especially careless. Mugniyah's alleged role as the
mastermind of the 1983 U.S. Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon, as well
as a string of other attacks against American interests, has long been
known. Iran's 'financial and material support' for Mughniyah and
Hezbollah, as noted by the White House, is also well documented. But the
influence that Mugniyah's operations had on other terrorists, especially
Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda, remains underappreciated even to this day.
In the early 1990s, al-Qaeda had not yet been transformed into an
international terrorist network capable of launching spectacular mass
casualty attacks. Bin Laden, who was living in the Sudan at the time,
sought out the expertise of seasoned terrorists who could train
al-Qaeda's operatives. Mugniyah and Hezbollah, despite their theological
differences with bin Laden, were natural choices. In fact, the
Iranian-backed Hezbollah greatly influenced the evolution of al-Qaeda's
operations. Simultaneous suicide bombings were Hezbollah's hallmark long
before al-Qaeda made such attacks its modus operandi. And al-Qaeda's most
devastating attacks prior to 9/11-the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya
and Tanzania-were directly modeled after Hezbollah's attacks in Lebanon
15 years prior. Al-Qaeda terrorists have explained the logic behind
Mugniyah's relationship with al-Qaeda during testimony before an American
court." http://t.uani.com/1aa0Tyw
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal
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