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Reuters:
"Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday Iran would
need to significantly increase its uranium enrichment capacity,
underlining a gap in positions between Tehran and world powers as they
hold talks aimed at clinching a nuclear accord... 'Their aim is that we
accept a capacity of 10,000 separative work units (SWUs), which is
equivalent to 10,000 centrifuges of the older type that we already have.
Our officials say we need 190,000 centrifuges. Perhaps this is not a need
this year or in two years or five years, but this is the country's
absolute need,' Khamenei said in a statement published on his website
late on Monday... Khamenei said the idea of shutting down the underground
Fordow enrichment plant was 'laughable', his website said." http://t.uani.com/1lQEVQ9
Reuters:
"India paid a second instalment of $550 million in oil dues to Iran
on Tuesday under an interim deal that has allowed Tehran access to $4.2
billion in blocked funds globally, two industry sources said... Iran
wanted the last three payments under the joint plan of action (JPA)
totalling $1.65 billion from India, but New Delhi could not clear the May
and the June instalments on time as the banking mechanism to remit the
funds was not in place. The current mechanism involving the central bank
of the United Arab Emirates allows Tehran access to funds in Dirahms as a
reward for cooperating in talks with world powers over its nuclear
programme. 'All refiners have made the payment,' said one of the sources,
who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue... The
respective payments by the five refiners were the same as in the previous
instalment, said a second source. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals
Ltd, Essar Oil, Indian Oil Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp and HPCL-Mittal
Energy Ltd. together owed about $4.6 billion to National Iranian Oil Co
as of May 31." http://t.uani.com/1pWUL3W
LAT:
"Negotiators in the ongoing talks in Vienna over Iran's nuclear
program appear to be looking at one of the most contentious points of
discussion as a possible route out of their impasse. The issue is the
duration of the deal. Iran and the six world powers at the negotiating
table have been far apart on this 'sunset clause,' with Iran wanting the
comprehensive deal to last only five years, and the United States and
allies wanting to stretch it for two decades or longer... Abbas Araqchi,
Iran's deputy foreign minister, said Thursday that if Iran accepts limits
on its nuclear activities, as a way of building trust with world powers,
'it will only be for a specific time frame, and temporary.' 'None of our
commitments are for eternity, and they will not be permanent,' he said in
an interview with the Iranian Students News Agency... A senior Obama
administration official said Thursday that whatever terms Iran accepts,
it will be free to choose its own path once the deal lapses. 'What
choices they make after they get to normal -- that is, after a long
duration of an agreement, when they will be treated as any other
nonnuclear weapons state under the [Nonproliferation Treaty] -- will, of
course, be their choice,' the U.S. official said." http://t.uani.com/1kzK7YK
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Reuters:
"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign ministers from
the six powers negotiating with Iran on its nuclear program may travel to
Vienna soon to join the talks, which have failed so far to produce a
deal, diplomats said on Tuesday. The possible arrival of the ministers
ahead of a July 20 deadline for an agreement should not be seen as proof
that negotiators from Iran, the United States, Britain, France, Germany,
Russia and China are on the cusp of a deal, the diplomats cautioned. 'The
ministers can help negotiate an extension of the negotiations, if that's
deemed useful, and they could help generate momentum to get a deal by July
20, which remains our goal,' a Western close to the talks diplomat told
Reuters on condition of anonymity. 'Of course, the ministers could also
sign an agreement but we're far from signing anything at the moment,' the
diplomat added. 'There are significant gaps in positions.'" http://t.uani.com/1oE5NY9
AFP:
"Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday the
country's nuclear negotiating team at talks in Vienna will defend 'the
rights of the nation' in negotiations with world powers. 'We trust the
negotiating team and are sure they will not allow anyone to harm the
nation's nuclear rights,' said Khamenei who has the final say on major
issues, his official website said." http://t.uani.com/1qGHuu8
Fars News (Iran):
"Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araqchi rejected some
media reports about a reduction in the number of centrifuges that Iran
has demanded to have during the talks with the Group 5+1 (the US, Russia,
China, France and Britain plus Germany). A Thursday report by Reuters
cited 'a Western diplomat' as saying that 'Iran has reduced the number of
centrifuges it wants'. According to the report, diplomats claimed that
the Islamic Republic had signaled it would settle for a lower figure than
50,000 centrifuges. 'All the figures which are reported on the number of
centrifuges are the figment of the imagination of some foreign media,'
Araqchi said in a news conference on Thursday." http://t.uani.com/1tjabRn
Sanctions
Relief
Tehran Times:
"Car manufacturing in Iran grew by 80 percent in spring 2014
compared to spring 2013, the Mehr News Agency reported on Wednesday. Iran
manufactured 223,023 cars in spring 2014, which corresponds to the first
quarter of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-June 21)." http://t.uani.com/1oxaTUg
Sanctions
Enforcement & Impact
NYT:
"State and federal authorities have begun settlement talks with
Commerzbank, Germany's second-largest lender, over the bank's dealings
with Iran and other countries blacklisted by the United States, according
to people briefed on the matter. The bank, which is suspected of
transferring money through its American operations on behalf of companies
in Iran and Sudan, could strike a settlement deal with the state and
federal authorities as soon as this summer, said the people briefed on
the matter, who were not authorized to speak publicly... The contours of
a settlement, which the authorities have only begun to sketch out, are
expected to include at least $500 million in penalties for Commerzbank,
the people added." http://t.uani.com/1lQGgGH
Human Rights
ICHRI:
"The United States should reinstate sanctions on Iran's state TV and
radio broadcasting agency, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting
(IRIB), for the continuation of its widespread human rights violations,
the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said today. The US
Treasury had issued a six-month waiver of IRIB sanctions in February
2014, which expires in August. In a new briefing paper released today,
Iran's State TV: A Major Human Rights Violator, the Campaign details
IRIB's routine filming and broadcasting of forced confessions by
detainees, and Iran's continued practice of jamming international
satellite broadcasts, which allows the Islamic Republic to block content and
restrict Iranians to state-approved broadcasts. These are both practices
for which the US Treasury originally sanctioned IRIB in February
2013." http://t.uani.com/1oE6FvR
Opinion &
Analysis
Derek Harvey &
Michael Pregent in CNN:
"United States leaders have rightly said that defeating the Islamic
State in Iraq and Syria and resolving Iraq's deepening civil war will
require urgent political change in Baghdad. But the military assistance
that Iran and Russia are speeding to Shiite groups in Iraq imperils that
change. It now appears that a majority of Iraq's political parties and
Shiite religious authorities blame Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's
authoritarian tendencies and exclusion of mainstream Sunni groups for the
crisis, and they seek his replacement as the starting point for resolving
it. But just as this political majority has begun to form against him,
Iran and Russia have extended al-Maliki material and political support
that insulates him from domestic political pressure and may even embolden
him to try to stay on. Iran now is in a position to direct Shiite militia
mobilization and integration into Iraqi security operations and to shape
Iraq's military and intelligence operations through Iran's Quds Force
advisers. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's decisive action to provide attack
aircraft, trainers and advisers further bolsters the Prime Minister's
position... A defiant al-Maliki -- with the support of Iran, Syria and
Russia and absent U.S. constraints -- will aggressively target Sunni
Arabs, who in his view are active supporters of ISIS. Unfortunately,
al-Maliki's removal would not diminish the influence of Iran and Tehran's
Shiite militias. Iran will continue to be the key determinant of Iraqi
policy and politics for Iraq's Shiite parties and Shiite militias
regardless of the prime minister. Iran is skilled in power politics and
in asserting Iranian prerogatives. Iranian strategic goals depend on an
acquiescent and accommodating Iraqi government. If Iran were to pressure
al-Maliki to step down, he would surely be replaced by someone Iran could
influence... While the U.S. watched, the Iranians pressured al-Maliki not
to sign the 2011 Status of Forces Agreement and backed his sectarian
agenda of sidelining and arresting political rivals. Iran's strategic goals
and dominant position, orchestrated by Quds commander Qassem Soleimani,
will ensure that any Iraqi prime minister responds to Tehran's core
interests. Tehran's steadfast support for Syria's al-Assad shows
al-Maliki the reliability and commitment of Iran to its clients. We
should view Iranian statements about an inclusive government with Sunni
and Kurdish politicians as mere window dressing. The reality is that
Tehran will not permit the steps necessary for fundamental constitutional
reforms, power-sharing and checks on the Prime Minister's control over
the security forces and intelligence apparatus. Tehran will see any such
reforms as limits on Iranian influence, something the Iranians will not
let happen." http://t.uani.com/1oE9k8Q
Emanuele
Ottolenghi & Saeed Ghasseminejad in Times of Israel:
"In a recent public spat with his domestic political opponents,
Iran's president Hassan Rouhani rebuked conservatives for their continued
efforts to impose morality by force. Western media have seized upon this
latest spat between factions inside Iran's regime as a sign that in the
ongoing battle over personal freedoms, Rouhani is truly a moderate.
'Locking horns with hardliners', as a swooning headline in the Guardian
proclaimed, is what Rouhani supposedly does. Rouhani and the hardliners
are 'tussling' over the state's role in determining a citizen's path to
the afterlife, suggests Golnaz Hesfandiari in The Atlantic. And for the
Christian Science Monitor's Scott Peterson, the hardliners are trying to
'intimidate' Rouhani. But for all Rouhani's presumed moderation, his hand
remains steady with the hangman's noose. Rouhani quipped that 'We can't
take people to heaven by force and with a whip.' Maybe he is just
'tussling' about the length of the rope. In 2013, the Iranian regime
executed more people per capita than any other country - as many as 687
people in 2013 - an increase of 165 over the prior year, with most
executions happening after Rouhani's election. According to Navi Pillay,
the United Nations' High Commissioner for Human Rights, Iran has already
executed more than 200 individuals in 2014. The increase in pace is so
steep that in March, Ahmed Shaheed, the U.N. special rapporteur for human
rights in Iran, said in evident frustration, that he was 'at a loss to
understand how a reformist president should be in office and see such a
sharp rise in executions. The government hasn't given an explanation,
which I would like to hear.' To be fair, Iran pre-empted Shaheed's
question last November, when Iran's suave foreign minister, Mohammad
Javad Zarif, told France's leading newspaper, Le Monde, that 'No one is
executed in Iran for political motives,' insisting that Iran's 'judiciary
is independent.' Diplomats are paid to lie on their government's behalf,
no doubt, but even by diplomatic standards, Zarif's lie was a stretch. Of
course Iranians are being routinely executed for political motives. That
is what happened recently to Gholamreza Khosravi, a mild-mannered Iranian
recently hanged in the infamous Evin prison. His real crime was to be a
sympathizer of the Iranian opposition group, Mujaheddin-e Khalq (MEK). He
had been sentenced to six years in prison for donating money to the MEK
but, after recent prisoners' protests inside Evin were brutally quashed,
the regime was looking to teach dissidents a lesson. Khosravi refused to
confess to crimes he had not committed and was swiftly branded 'an enemy
of God,' and sent to the gallows. Khosravi's crime was his opinion. His
was not a trial, but a mockery of judicial proceedings by any standards.
His sentence was not a fair punishment, but a cruel and carefully
orchestrated act of intimidation designed to terrorize and deter anyone
who may harbor misgivings about the Islamic Revolution in their hearts.
With such a grim record, Shaheed's frustrated plea is understandable.
Yet, Iran's conduct is entirely consistent with Rouhani's lifelong
experience as a regime insider - and the strongest evidence that
Rouhani's moderation is just a façade to consolidate the regime's grip on
the country." http://t.uani.com/1pWVq5p
Philip Zelikow in
NYT: "Amid the chaos, then, we should partner with
Muslim communities that are holding together, despite sectarian
differences, and where local leaders are open to change. We should seek
ways to enlarge their strength and appeal. That is the fundamental need
because the revolutions throughout the Muslim world are an internal
argument: how to cope with the strains of modern life, the pressure on
traditional identities and ways of living. These people are angry, above
all, about raw injustices in their daily lives. Their enemies, most
often, are compatriots who have engineered corrupt favoritism or misrule.
The great strategic contest is over who or what can cure those plagues.
Where to start? First, by checking the destructive forces without adding
to the chaos. The most destructive outside force pushing violent Islamist
extremism is the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Revolutionary Guards.
Our current policy seems to recognize that, but we must stick to it,
swayed neither by artificial deadlines nor dreams of holding Iraq
together by going easier on Tehran. Iran's interventions across the
region are part of the problem; they cannot reliably be restrained by
agreement. Still, negotiators can make Iran choose between economic
recovery and military advancement, as we are now trying to do in the
nuclear talks. Sanctions should be relieved only if Iran offers to
comprehensively roll back that program. If needed, American military
power can be readied to maintain or strengthen the sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1pWVBNZ
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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