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WSJ:
"Plummeting oil prices and the failure so far to conclude a nuclear
agreement are dealing a double blow to Iran's economy just as it was
starting to recover. Oil prices, which have fallen about 50% since June,
resumed their decline on Monday after Saudi Arabia, the world's largest
crude exporter, said it may boost production despite a global glut. The slide
in prices is strangling revenues in Iran, a country dependent on oil
money... The renewed economic travails are eroding gains that accompanied
President Hasan Rouhani 's surprise election 18 months ago. Mr. Rouhani,
whose political fortunes rest largely on an economic recovery, has been
scrambling to contain the damage. In a recent address to parliament, he
touted a radical but difficult plan to address what he called an
unprecedented oil slump: cutting dependence on oil income by boosting
industrial exports and hiking taxes. He has also proposed dramatic fiscal
tightening in the new Iranian year that begins in March. 'Iran is moving to
a very austere budget,' said Fereydoun Khavand, an Iran expert and senior
lecturer at Paris Descartes University." http://t.uani.com/1CvjBwX
Al-Monitor:
"Last week, the University of Tehran hosted a conference in which a
panel of prominent professors and former officials expressed unprecedented
public criticism of Iran's nuclear program. The panelists drew parallels
between the devastating costs of the Iran-Iraq war and those of Iran's
nuclear program and questioned its usefulness and achievements. The meeting
made headlines even in the Western media for the panelists' audacity in
questioning what the top leadership of the Islamic Republic considers a
national security issue. As expected, criticism of the panelists - Sadeg
Zibakalam, Ahmad Shirzad and Davoud Hermidas-Bavand - was swift and harsh.
'One voice with Israel' was the top headline of hard-line Vatan Emrooz,
which featured a picture of the panelists, suggesting that they are
adopting Israel's positions in their opposition to Iran's nuclear program.
The article's subheader read, 'Footprints of the hopes of [Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and [US President Barack] Obama in the
recommendations of the administration's supporters.'" http://t.uani.com/1wZUvCX
Al-Monitor:
"US President Barack Obama issued a vigorous defense of his policy of
diplomatic engagement with historic adversaries such as Cuba and Iran,
saying the negotiations with Iran have resulted in demonstrable restraints
on Iran's nuclear program. 'You look at an example like Iran, over the last
year-and-a-half, since we began negotiations with them, that's probably the
first year-and-a-half in which Iran has not advanced its nuclear program in
the last decade,' Obama said in an interview with CNN's Candy Crowley Dec.
21. 'We know that,' Obama continued. 'That's not just verified by the
United Nations and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] and
ourselves. Even critics of our policy, like the [Benjamin] Netanyahu
government in Israel, their intelligence folks have acknowledged that, in
fact, Iran has not made progress.'" http://t.uani.com/1zf5K7s
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Tehran Times:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran is the fourth missile power in the
world, Defense Minister Hossein Dehqan says. 'Iran has an acceptable status
among countries possessing missile capabilities, and stands after the
United States, Russia, and China [in missile power],' Dehqan said in a
televised interview with Al-Alam channel on Friday. The country is
currently striving to boost the accuracy of the missiles and make them
radar evading, he noted, adding that Iran has increased the range of its
missiles 'in proportion to possible threats against the country.'" http://t.uani.com/1wX9SvN
Sanctions Relief
Tasnim (Iran):
"The value of trade transactions between Iran and the 28 members of
the European Union in October 2014 has witnessed a 37 percent increase,
compared to the corresponding period last year, data released by the
Eurostat showed. Trade turnover between Iran and the EU in October 2013 had
stood at 524 million euros, while it reached 721 million euros in the same
month in 2014, according to a report by the Eurostat. According to the
report, the EU imports from Iran in October reached €111 million, showing a
two-fold increase compared to the same period last year, in which the
figure stood at €55 million. Italy was the biggest importer of Iranian
goods among the bloc members in October, allocating more than half of the
commodities the EU imported from Iran... By exporting €232 million worth of
goods to Iran in October alone, Germany ranked first among the bloc members
in that month." http://t.uani.com/1rdoC9a
Tasnim (Iran):
"The value of trade between Iran and Britain grew by 36 percent this
year, according to latest figure released by the Eurostat. According to the
Eurostat, the value of commercial transactions between the two countries
reached over 133 million Euros between January and October, showing a 36
percent rise compared to the same period last year. Britain exported 99.5
million Euros worth of goods to Iran in the ten-month period while its
exports to Iran in the same period in 2013 stood at 71.4 million Euros. The
West European country's imports from Iran also saw a 28-percent growth,
hitting 33.8 million Euros, the report said." http://t.uani.com/13rJuhC
IRNA (Iran):
"Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said his ministry regards resistance
economy one of its priorities to carry out economic diplomacy... Zarif
referred to Superme Leader's emphasis on the significance of resistance
economy in reducing the negative impact of anti-Iran sanctions and said the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accordingly employed the policy in
execution of the economic diplomacy." http://t.uani.com/1ARKVkT
Terrorism
Bloomberg: "Hamas test-fired rockets from the Gaza Strip into the
Mediterranean Sea for the second time in nine days, in a show of military
strength months after its devastating war with Israel... Iran 'was
unsparing in its financial and military and other assistance and provided
us with missiles that pulverized the defense of the Zionist enemy,'
spokesman Abu Obeida said. Michael Segall, a former head of the Iran
desk for the research branch of Israeli military intelligence, said Iranian
support for the Hamas rocket program was a 'long-term investment' in a
strategy designed to 'encircle Israel.' 'Iran has completely removed the
secrecy surrounding its provision of rockets and missiles to anti-Israeli
terror organizations,' Segall wrote in a paper today for the Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs, an Israeli research center with close links to
the government." http://t.uani.com/1vjPWz0
Human Rights
ICHRI:
"A high-ranking cleric and Khomeini-era member of the Supreme Judicial
Council has told Fars News Agency that Baha'is are not entitled to citizenship
rights. The statement was made only weeks after Mohammad Javad Larijani,
Head of the Iranian Judiciary's Human Rights Council, denied the systematic
denial of Baha'is right to higher education. 'We never say that Baha'is
have the right to education; Baha'is don't even have citizenship rights,'
Ayatollah Bojnourdi told Fars. 'Christians, Jews, and Zoroastrians enjoy
citizenship rights. They have representatives in the Parliament, because
they are Abrahamic religions and we engage with them and their representatives
are our friends,' he added. Such statements reflect the continuation of the
widespread and systematic violation of the rights of Baha'is in Iran,
despite assertions by Iranian Judiciary officials who, faced with growing
international criticism in this area, allege otherwise." http://t.uani.com/1wCP9xq
Guardian:
"For five months, Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian has slept
on the concrete floor of his cell, waking each morning to relive the
nightmare that is solitary confinement in one of Iran's most notorious
prisons. Rezaian, an Iranian-American who holds dual citizenship, was
arrested under dubious circumstances in July and jailed at Evin prison in
Tehran, where he has been held for the past 153 days - the longest any
western journalist has been detained in Iran... According to his brother,
Rezaian is being held in a bare prison cell, where he is forced to sleep on
the hard floor. His physical and mental health are deteriorating, and his
family is deeply concerned his prolonged detention will cause permanent
damage, Ali said. He has spent days at a time locked in his cell without
seeing another human being other than his guard, according to his brother.
Other days, interrogators will question him for hours, Ali said. In the
first months of his detention, Rezaian lost nearly 20% of his body weight,
which has caused new health problems, his brother said. Rezaian suffers
from chronic high blood pressure - for which the prison is providing him
with the Iranian version of his prescribed medication - and he is also
afflicted with recurring eye infections and an inflammation of his
groin." http://t.uani.com/1wZSJ4K
The Hill:
"Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) called on Secretary of State John Kerry to
secure the release of journalist Jason Rezaian, who is being held in an
Iranian prison. 'I respectfully request that you redouble your efforts to
secure Rezaian's release and prioritize his case in your discussions with
Iranian officials,' Casey wrote in a letter to Kerry. 'Iran's treatment of
Rezaian is not only an affront to due process, but to journalists around
the world working in difficult environments.' ... 'I ask you to
unequivocally reject any efforts by the Iranian regime to use him as a pawn
in other negotiations and insist that the Iranian regime does not continue
to unjustly punish him for his reporting,' Casey wrote." http://t.uani.com/1zR4dav
ICHRI:
"A Tehran Revolutionary Court has increased the sentence of a
21-year-old Facebook user from 15 to 20 years in prison for his postings on
Facebook. The case was originally appealed in the hope that the severe
15-year sentence would be reduced. However, the appeals court remanded the
case to the lower court because one of the charges, "insulting the
sacred," was not addressed in the original ruling. As a result, the
judge in the lower court, Judge Moghisseh, added the charge of 'insulting
the sacred' to the ruling in the case of Masoud Seyed Talebi, which added
five more years to his sentence, according to a source close to Talebi's
case. The ensuing 20-year sentence is indicative of the intensifying
crackdown on social media networks in Iran, as hardline authorities attempt
to reign in exponential growth in the use of such networks." http://t.uani.com/1ADMQeF
RFE/RL:
"An Iranian official says Tehran is considering new restrictions for
thousands of Afghans seeking to reside in Iran. Aziz Kazemi, the head of
the Interior Ministry's department for foreign nationals and immigrants,
said on December 22 that the new restrictions on Afghan refugees will not
be introduced in the current Iranian year that ends on March 20. He also
said Tehran had recently banned the accommodation of Afghan immigrants in
the northern province of Mazandaran. Iranian media report that Afghans are
currently banned from living in nine provinces." http://t.uani.com/1B1OXHa
Domestic Politics
Tasnim (Iran):
"A senior Iranian judiciary official raised the alarm over the
cultural onslaught that enemies have launched against Iran through
cyberspace, and said the move is aimed at creating sedition in the country.
'Today, the enemies of Islam and the sacred establishment of the Islamic
Republic of Iran seek sedition (in the country), and the cyberspace has
provided the ground for them,' Iran's Attorney General Hojatoleslam Seyed
Ebrahim Rae'esi said on Friday. Addressing a congregation of Friday prayers
in Tehran, the official emphasized the necessity to safeguard the country's
cyberspace against the cultural onslaught as part of a broader attempt to
thwart the threats against the Iranian nation's 'beliefs and ethics'. One
of the main objectives of the enemy's cultural onslaught is to 'disrupt the
Islamic lifestyle' and to 'secularize the society', he explained." http://t.uani.com/1v9n3of
Opinion &
Analysis
Fouad Hamdan &
Shiar Youssef in the Middle East Institute: "It is no
longer accurate to describe the war in Syria as a conflict between Syrian
rebels on the one hand and Bashar al-Assad's regime forces 'supported' by
the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG), Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias on
the other. Most major battles in Syria-along the frontlines of regime-held
areas-are now being directed and fought by the IRG and Hezbollah, along
with other non-Syrian Shi'i militias, with Assad forces in a supportive or
secondary role. The Iranian regime has spent billions of dollars on weapons
and fighters shipped to Syria since the start of the Syrian revolution in
March 2011. It has also financed a large part of the economy in the
regime-controlled parts of Syria through loans and credit lines worth
billions of dollars. The Assad regime would have collapsed were it not for
this Iranian support. One result of this heavy Iranian involvement in the
war in Syria has been a change in the nature of the relationship between
the Syrian and the Iranian regimes. From historically being mutually
beneficial allies, the Iranian regime is now effectively the dominant force
in regime-held areas of Syria, and can thus be legally considered an
'occupying force,' with the responsibilities that accompany such a role. The
revolution in Syria can therefore also be considered an international
conflict that involves a foreign military occupation by Iranian forces and
a struggle by the Syrian people against this occupation, as defined by the
1907 Hague Regulations and the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949.
Recognizing the war in Syria as an international conflict also means that,
as an occupying force, Iran has certain duties toward the Syrian population
under its occupation. There is sufficient evidence that the Iranian regime
and its various forces and militias fighting in Syria have repeatedly
violated many of these duties since March 2011. In November 2014, the
campaign group Naame Shaam, of which the authors are founders, released a
report on the role of the Iranian regime in the ongoing war in Syria. The
report, 'Iran in Syria: From an Ally of the Regime to an Occupying Force,'
provides many examples of human rights violations, war crimes, and crimes
against humanity committed in Syria that would likely not have taken place
without the Iranian regime's direct military involvement. The Iranian
regime's adventure in Syria is not just about saving Assad and his regime.
Rather, it has been primarily driven by the Iranian regime's own strategic
interests. At the forefront of these interests is keeping arms shipments
flowing to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria, so as to keep Hezbollah a
deterrent against possible attacks on Iran's military nuclear program. The
other Iranian lines of defense include the government and various Shi'i militias
in Iraq, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and recently the Houthi militias
in Yemen. If the Assad regime falls, Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah
are likely to cease, and Hezbollah would no longer be the deterrence
against Israel that it is now. The Iranian regime would therefore feel more
vulnerable and would not be able to negotiate from a strong position during
nuclear talks with international powers. It may even have to at least
temporarily give up its dreams of building a nuclear bomb. Resources in
Iran-human, economic, and military-have as a result been mobilized to keep
Assad in power... One effective way to end the bloodshed in Syria is to
link the Iran nuclear talks and sanctions to the Iranian regime's
intervention in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. There is an obvious reason
for this: agreeing to lift the sanctions on Iran for the sake of
concessions from the Iranian regime about its nuclear program, and without
any serious commitment to end its intervention in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and
Yemen, is effectively giving the Iranian regime a green light to carry on
with its policies in these countries and is buying it time to consolidate
its regional influence. The Iranian regime must remain under serious
political and economic pressure, not only until it gives up its military
nuclear program, but also until it ends its destabilizing policies in the
region... Only the credible threat to use force may convince the Iranian
regime to end its destabilizing policies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Other options will probably lead to the IRG expanding its influence in the
region-and perhaps eventually to Iran having the confidence to move ahead
with producing a nuclear weapon." http://t.uani.com/1whq6uR
Emanuele Ottolenghi
& Saeed Ghasseminejad in WSJ: "Hasan Rouhani
submitted his 2015 budget proposal earlier this month to the Majlis, Iran's
parliament. The proposal suggests that, contrary to the Iranian president's
reputation for moderation in the West, 'Rouhanomics' is really about
bolstering the regime's repressive apparatus while at the same time
modifying some of the more reckless policies of his predecessor, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. Mr. Rouhani came to power last year riding a wave of
discontent with Mr. Ahmadinejad's mismanagement of the economy and the pain
inflicted by mounting international sanctions. With a looming economic
crisis at hand, Mr. Rouhani successfully extracted sanctions relief from
the West and launched widely publicized corruption probes against
Ahmadinejad cronies while restoring competent technocrats at the helm of
state-owned companies. In his first year in office, Mr. Rouhani and his
foreign minister, Javad Zarif, softened outside pressure on Iran's economy,
leading the country partly out of recession and international isolation,
slicing inflation almost by half to 18% in October 2014 from 34% in June
2013 and reducing unemployment to 9.5% in summer 2014 from 10.4% a year
earlier, if official statistics are to be believed. You might think Mr.
Rouhani would aim over the coming years to consolidate these gains. Yet his
2015 budget is a boon to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC,
the intelligence branches and clerical courts-suggesting that the great
moderate's real agenda is primarily to preserve and strengthen the regime's
core institutions of repression. Rouhanomics, in other words, is less about
growth than it is about regime self-preservation. Consider the total
expenditure. Mr. Rouhani plans in the next year to spend 8.4 quadrillion
Iranian rials, or $293 billion at the regime's official exchange rate of
28,500 rials to the dollar. That's 4% higher than the previous year, and
relies on a 23% increase in government tax revenue to partially offset oil
revenues, which are expected to drop by 8%, or about $5 billion. Mr.
Rouhani is also proposing to reduce subsidies by 26%, including a 40%
decrease in bread subsidies. On the other hand, Mr. Rouhani will spend 59%
more on Iran's broken health-care and insurance system. This will benefit
lower- and middle-class Iranians and fend off potential social unrest. This
isn't a recipe for economic growth but for balancing middle-class
discontent. At the same time, Mr. Rouhani is requesting a dramatic increase
in the budget for the IRGC, which serves as the regime's praetorian at home
and the tip of its spear abroad. The proposed budget increases Iran's
defense spending by 33%, to $10 billion, although the real figure is
probably much higher since much military funding is off the books, coming
as it does directly from the office of the Supreme Leader. Sixty-four
percent of public military spending will go to the IRGC and the basij, the
paramilitary force that answers to the IRGC. The IRGC is also benefiting
from increased government appropriation for its holding company, the U.S. sanctioned
Khatam al-Anbia, whose budget Mr. Rouhani plans to double. Assessing each
branch of the military separately, the IRGC's budget rises an astounding
48% under the 2015 budget, while the regular army's budget shows only a
slight increase. Not only is Rouhanomics going to inflict economic pain on
the very constituency that swept the new president to power, but it will
also empower the regime apparatus tasked with taming the inevitable
discontent of Mr. Rouhani's constituents. His largess to the Guards is a
sign of continuity with the repressive past. It also means that the Islamic
Republic will continue its aggressive expansionary regional policy through
the IRGC's Quds Forces. In addition, Mr. Rouhani would strengthen the other
branches of Iran's authoritarian regime. His budget would grant Iran's
Ministry of Intelligence $790 million, a 40% increase in funding, and give
a 37% raise to a special religious court that polices dissent among
clerics... The bottom line is that Mr. Rouhani's budget appears aimed at
streamlining public spending without cutting off welfare completely, but at
the same time strengthening the institutions tasked with internal
repression and external adventurism. Rouhanomics is sure to disappoint
those who put faith in the charm offensive Tehran launched soon after the
new president's election. Far from turning a new page, Hasan Rouhani is
mixing technocratic, pragmatic economic decisions with commitment to the
ideals of the revolution. Those in the West, and inside the country, who had
entertained illusions of reform will be disappointed." http://t.uani.com/1wCR0Co
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