Monday, July 6, 2015

Eye on Iran: Iran Faces Hard Choices in Nuclear Talks, Kerry Warns






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NYT: "Secretary of State John Kerry warned Iran on Sunday that hard choices were still needed to seal a landmark nuclear accord, and that the United States was prepared to walk away if a sound agreement could not be reached. 'We are not yet where we need to be on several of the most difficult issues,' Mr. Kerry said in a statement in front of the Palais Coburg, the Vienna hotel where the talks are being held. 'This negotiation could go either way.' Mr. Kerry's remarks came two days before a target date for wrapping up the agreement and as foreign ministers from the other world powers involved in the talks are heading here for what is intended to be the homestretch in the long-running negotiations. Mr. Kerry said it was still possible to reach an agreement by Tuesday, which would enable the Obama administration to submit the deal to Congress this week for a 30-day review period... Mr. Kerry appeared to be cautioning the Iranians against last-minute brinkmanship. 'We want a good agreement, only a good agreement, and we're not going to shave anywhere at the margins in order just to get an agreement,' Mr. Kerry said. 'There are plenty of people in the nonproliferation community, nuclear experts, who will look at this,' he added, 'and none of us are going to be content to do something that can't pass scrutiny.' ... On Saturday, another high-ranking Iranian negotiator, Abbas Araghchi, said on Iranian state television that the prospective accord could be endorsed by the United Nations Security Council as early as this week. Mr. Araghchi said that the agreement would total about 80 pages, and that it would not take effect until Iran's Parliament and the United States Congress approved it, but that it would uphold the principle of speedy sanctions relief." http://t.uani.com/1NLx06N

NYT: "The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Saturday that, with Iranian cooperation, his agency could complete an assessment on Iran's suspected past nuclear work by December, potentially removing a major obstacle to a nuclear agreement. With his statement, Yukiya Amano, the director general of the agency, appeared to be signaling that a preliminary investigation into the 'possible military dimensions' of Iran's past nuclear work could happen on an expedited basis, a schedule that could facilitate the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran. He made the statement a day after returning here from Tehran, where he met with President Hassan Rouhani and other senior Iranian officials. 'With the cooperation from Iran I think we can issue a report by the end of the year on the assessment of the clarification of the issues related to possible military dimensions,' said Mr. Amano, a cautious diplomat who weighs his words carefully. 'We have made progress on the way forward.' ... It is doubtful that the agency can fully resolve those issues by the end of the year. But American officials have been suggesting that if agency inspectors can get access to Iranian scientists, documents and some sites to resolve suspicions, the sanctions could begin to lift even before the agency reaches final conclusions. 'We have to see that they are getting the access they need,' one senior administration official said in May. 'We don't have to wait for the I.A.E.A. to issue its reports.'" http://t.uani.com/1NLwipX

Reuters: "A dispute over U.N. sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile program and a broader arms embargo were among issues holding up a nuclear deal between Tehran and six world powers on Monday, the day before their latest self-imposed deadline. 'The Iranians want the ballistic missile sanctions lifted. They say there is no reason to connect it with the nuclear issue, a view that is difficult to accept,' one Western official told Reuters. 'There's no appetite for that on our part.' ... 'The Western side insists that not only should it (ballistic missiles) remain under sanctions, but that Iran should suspend its program as well,' an Iranian official said. 'But Iran is insisting on its rights and says all the sanctions, including on the ballistic missiles, should be lifted when the U.N. sanctions are lifted.' Separately, a senior Iranian official told reporters in Vienna on condition of anonymity that Tehran wanted a United Nations arms embargo terminated as well. The West wants to keep the arms embargo in place and a senior Western diplomat said a removal was 'out of the question.'" http://t.uani.com/1gjsjpG

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AP: "World powers and Iran have drawn up a draft document on the pace and timing of sanctions relief for the Islamic republic in exchange for curbs on Iran's nuclear program, advancing on one of the most contentious issues at their negotiations, diplomats told The Associated Press on Saturday. Written by technical experts, the document still must be approved by senior officials of the seven nations at the table... The diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly on this past week's confidential negotiations, said the sanctions annex was completed this week by experts from Iran and the six world powers in the negotiations: the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. They did not provide details of the agreement. A senior U.S. official did not dispute the diplomats' account but said work remained to be done on 'Annex II' before the issue could be described as finalized. And beyond a political agreement that was still in the draft stage, details also needed to be finalized on tough issues contained in four other appendices." http://t.uani.com/1CW1a0L

WashPost: "Shortly after Amano's comments, a senior Iranian official in Tehran repeated that military visits and scientist interviews would not be permitted. 'Our red lines include permission for visiting the military centers and interview[s] with nuclear scientists as well as the points explicitly stated by Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution,' Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khameinei, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of the parliamentary national security commission, told Iran's Fars News agency Saturday." http://t.uani.com/1S2JJT3

AP: "Iran took a hard line Thursday on two of the biggest demands of world powers in a final nuclear accord, rejecting any extraordinary inspection rules and threatening to ramp up enrichment of bomb-making material if the United States and other countries re-impose sanctions after the deal is in place. Speaking to reporters in Vienna, where diplomats are trying to clinch a comprehensive nuclear pact, a senior Iranian negotiator said the U.N. nuclear agency's standard rules governing access to government information, sites of interest and scientists should be sufficient to ensure that Iran's program is solely for peaceful purposes. Anything beyond that, he said, would be unfair. The U.S. and some other negotiating countries want Iran to go further... RIA-Novosti reported that Russia also backed Iran's position that additional inspection guidelines for Iran weren't necessary." http://t.uani.com/1M7pnXe

Fars (Iran): "Iranian Ground Force Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan underlined that any possible nuclear deal between Tehran and the world powers would never mean friendship between Iran and the US. 'The US might arrive at some agreements with us within the framework of the Group 5+1 (the US, Russia, China, Britain and France plus Germany), but we should never hold a positive view over the enemy,' Pourdastan said in Tehran on Sunday. He elaborated on the cause of his pessimism about the US, and said, 'Our enmity with them is over the principles and is rooted because we are after the truth and nations' freedom, but they seek exploiting nations and putting them in chains.'" http://t.uani.com/1KGJLBc

Reuters: "It's always awkward to defend your enemies. But that's the position U.S. President Barack Obama's administration has found itself in with Iran as it pushes for an historic accord that would end a 12-year nuclear standoff... Yet for a month now the U.S. State Department has been defending Iran from suggestions that it was on the verge of violating a requirement to reduce its low-enriched uranium stockpile under a 2013 interim nuclear with major powers... Washington has also deflected criticism of continued Iranian violations of U.N. sanctions and reports of attempts to illicitly procure nuclear technology usable in activities the West wants it to suspend... One senior U.S. official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that the U.S. defense of Iranian compliance was 'weird' and did not come naturally. 'Iran has done a lot of bad things in Syria and across the Middle East, and still does. It's holding Americans hostages. But the fact is, it's complying with the JPOA.' ... Albright said the case showed Washington was 'prepared to legally reinterpret the deal' to explain away poor performance by Iran. Olli Heinonen of Harvard University, former deputy head of the IAEA, echoed Albright's caution. 'Any concessions in the implementation of agreed parameters will further reduce the breakout time and erode the credibility of the agreement,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1TgrBYh

WashPost: "Iran's foreign minister released a video message Friday as nuclear talks were nearing an end, saying an agreement is at hand and can be reached if the United States and its partners choose cooperation over coercion. 'At this eleventh hour, despite some differences that remain, we have never been closer to a lasting outcome,' said Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's top diplomat and lead negotiator. 'But there is no guarantee. Getting to yes requires the courage to compromise, the self-confidence to be flexible.' Zarif, standing on the balcony of Vienna's Coburg Palace, where the talks are underway, spoke in English as music played softly in the background. Delivered on YouTube, his words were apparently an appeal to public and political opinion in the United States, and in the five countries that are its negotiating partners. 'Some stubbornly believe that military and economic coercion can ensure submission,' he said. 'I see hope, because I see the emergence of reason over illusion.'" http://t.uani.com/1HaAnSf

FP: "It might be too much to say that President Barack Obama's administration went nuclear last month on a New York Times story suggesting that Iran was reneging on a tentative deal to freeze its uranium enrichment program. But the June 3 report was, at the least, roundly blasted by the State Department's top spokeswoman on the Iran negotiations, Marie Harf. 'I will say our team read that story this morning and was, quite frankly, perplexed, because the main contentions of it are just totally inaccurate,' Harf said in a televised press briefing later that day from the State Department. She further piled on against the story in a series of scathing tweets and, even now, is unapologetic about her combative tone. The rapid-fire attacks convey the high stakes riding on the nuclear talks and the White House's hair-trigger sensitivity over any suggestion that it is caving into Iranian negotiators... James Jeffrey, a career diplomat and former ambassador during the Obama administration, said he has been put off by what he considers the highhanded tone and contradictory explanations from the White House. 'It's this arrogant, you-just-don't-know attitude that is taken by the administration,' Jeffrey told Foreign Policy. In their zeal to defend what has already been agreed under an April framework accord, U.S. officials have sometimes gone out of their way to defend Iran, insisting Tehran is abiding by its promises, Jeffrey said." http://t.uani.com/1CW0OY2

NYT: "On the outskirts of this graceful city, the Iran Task Force of the International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing to move quickly if American and Iranian negotiators here manage to cut a deal on Iran's nuclear program in the coming days. The 50 or so members of the agency's most elite inspection unit are readying an array of new surveillance gear that is far more sophisticated than anything used before in Iran. It includes laser sensors, smart cameras and encrypted networks that would let the inspectors closely monitor Iran's nuclear infrastructure, in real time, from their command post overlooking the Danube... Though it is rarely discussed in public - in large part for fear of spooking Iranian military and religious figures who view the international inspectors as thinly disguised cutouts for Western intelligence agencies - beaming real-time inspection data from Iran's nuclear plants is central to enforcing an accord... In interviews, federal officials described the wave of new surveillance gear as critical to assuring the world that Tehran is not cheating on complicated terms that call for heightened surveillance for up to 25 years... Mr. Heinonen, the onetime inspection chief, sounded a note of caution, saying it would be naïve to expect that the wave of technology could ensure Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal. In the past, he said, Tehran has often promised much but delivered little. 'Iran is not going to accept it easily,' he said, referring to the advanced surveillance. 'We tried it for 10 years.' Even if Tehran agrees to high-tech sleuthing, Mr. Heinonen added, that step will be 'important but minor' compared with the intense monitoring that Western intelligence agencies must mount to see if Iran is racing ahead in covert facilities to build an atomic bomb." http://t.uani.com/1NLovIO

LAT: "As diplomats rush to reach an agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program, the U.S. military is stockpiling conventional bombs so powerful that strategists say they could cripple Tehran's most heavily fortified nuclear complexes, including one deep underground. The bunker-busting bombs are America's most destructive munitions short of atomic weapons. At 15 tons, each is 5 tons heavier than any other bomb in the U.S. arsenal. In development for more than a decade, the latest iteration of the MOP - massive ordnance penetrator - was successfully tested on a deeply buried target this year at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. The test followed upgrades to the bomb's guidance system and electronics to stop jammers from sending it off course. U.S. officials say the huge bombs, which have never been used in combat, are a crucial element in the White House deterrent strategy and contingency planning should diplomacy go awry and Iran seek to develop a nuclear bomb." http://t.uani.com/1Tgy6KF

Congressional Action

Politico: "Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker said on Sunday he has urged Secretary of State John Kerry to take his time and not rush to a bad deal in the nuclear talks with Iran. Appearing on CBS' 'Face the Nation,' the Tennessee Republican said he wants Kerry to 'try to make sure that these last remaining red lines that haven't been crossed - they've crossed so many - do not get crossed and, qualitatively, they don't make it worse than where it already is.' ... The senator said he believes negotiations have gone poorly and the U.S. has conceded too much. A main concern, he said, is what would happen at the end of a 10-year pause in uranium enrichment. And he suggested relaxing the sanctions against Iran would help its economy grow rapidly, generating much more money to foster further terrorism. 'After 10 years, in essence, Iran is off and running again,' Corker said." http://t.uani.com/1fgU5D0

The Hill: "If President Obama can secure a final nuclear deal with Iran next week, attention will immediately turn to Congress - which can vote to disapprove of the agreement. The White House conceded to legislation earlier this year that gives Congress the power to review any deal with Iran. Lawmakers will have 30 days to carry it out if an agreement is sent to Capitol Hill by July 9. If it's later, the review timeframe will double... A measure disapproving the deal could torpedo the pact, but would have to overcome a certain veto from the White House. That's unlikely - particularly in the House, where Republicans are likely to have a harder time winning the two-thirds majority needed to override Obama. In the Senate, the vote could be close. And Democratic opposition to the deal would be politically troublesome for the White House. Here are the 14 Democrats to watch." http://t.uani.com/1NIDSBa

Free Beacon: "A prominent progressive organization linked to the White House and claiming to work for dozens of like-minded groups is threatening to attack any congressional Democrat who objects to a final nuclear deal with Iran, even before the terms of any such agreement have been finalized, according to an email obtained by the Free Beacon. CREDO Action, the political arm of CREDO Mobile, declared this week in an secret email to journalists that it will punish congressional Democrats who fail to line up behind any deal sealed between the West and Iran. 'Democrats in Congress are the only remaining obstacle to finalizing today's historic deal,' Zack Malitz, campaign manager for CREDO, said in a statement emailed to reporters on July 2, along with a note that details of the email were not to be published until a deal was actually announced. 'Every Democrat should go on the record right now in support of the deal, and pledge to defend it from attacks in Congress.' 'Republicans will try to sabotage the deal and take us to war, but they can't do it without Democratic votes,' Matlz wrote. 'Progressives will hold accountable those Democrats who vote to help Republicans sabotage the deal and start a war.'" http://t.uani.com/1gjsHo5

Sanctions Relief

WSJ: "Iran wants to double its crude exports soon after sanctions are lifted and is pushing other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to renew the cartel's quota system, a top Iranian official said. Both developments could set up a clash with Saudi Arabia, which is scrambling to raise its own export numbers and has opposed the return of production limits on individual OPEC members. Iran's efforts underscore how the country's full return to the export market would upend the status quo among leading producers if Tehran clinches a deal with six world powers that would lift sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear activities... Should sanctions be lifted, Iran's deputy oil minister for planning and supervision, Mansour Moazami, said in an interview that his country's oil exports would reach 2.3 million barrels, compared with around 1.2 million barrels a day today." http://t.uani.com/1J0seOB

Terrorism

YnetNews: "The Jordanian newspaper Al Rai reported Monday morning that Jordanian security forces had foiled a terror plot by a member of an Iranian-backed group. According to the report, the suspect belongs to the Iranian Bayt al-Maqdis group - which is unrelated to the identically named Egyptian group that has recently changed its moniker and sworn allegiance to Islamic State. The suspect reportedly holds Iraqi and Norwegian citizenship, was arrested in northern Jordan, and found to be in possession of large amounts of explosives... The Jordanian source told the newspaper that a major terror operation had been averted. 'This is the most serious case in a decade in terms of the quantity of explosives discovered and their quality,' said the source." http://t.uani.com/1dHvgye

Military Matters

Reuters: "Iran says it has deployed a new domestically built long-range radar system, signaling a strengthening of its air defenses as it holds what may be the final days of talks on a nuclear deal with world powers. Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) air defense force, unveiled the Ghadir phased-array radar in Ahwaz city in southwestern Khuzestan province near the Iraq border, state television said late on Saturday. Iran says the Ghadir unit is designed and manufactured entirely inside the country and can detect a plane at 600 km (373 miles) and a ballistic missile at 1,100 km." http://t.uani.com/1HHUIQq

Opinion & Analysis

Charles Krauthammer in WashPost: "The devil is not in the details. It's in the entire conception of the Iran deal, animated by President Obama's fantastical belief that he, uniquely, could achieve detente with a fanatical Islamist regime whose foundational purpose is to cleanse the Middle East of the poisonous corruption of American power and influence. In pursuit of his desire to make the Islamic Republic into an accepted, normalized 'successful regional power,' Obama decided to take over the nuclear negotiations. At the time, Tehran was reeling - the rial plunging, inflation skyrocketing, the economy contracting - under a regime of international sanctions painstakingly constructed over a decade. Then, instead of welcoming Congress' attempt to tighten sanctions to increase the pressure on the mullahs, Obama began the negotiations by loosening sanctions, injecting billions into the Iranian economy (which began growing again in 2014) and conceding in advance an Iranian right to enrich uranium. It's been downhill ever since. Desperate for a legacy deal, Obama has played the supplicant, abandoning every red line his administration had declared essential to any acceptable deal... Taken together, the catalog of capitulations is breathtaking: spot inspections, disclosure of previous nuclear activity, gradual sanctions relief, retention of nonnuclear sanctions. What's left? A surrender document of the kind offered by defeated nations suing for peace. Consider: The strongest military and economic power on earth, backed by the five other major powers, armed with what had been a crushing sanctions regime, is about to sign the worst international agreement in U.S. diplomatic history. How did it come to this? With every concession, Obama and Kerry made clear they were desperate for a deal. And they will get it. Obama will get his 'legacy.' Kerry will get his Nobel. And Iran will get the bomb." http://t.uani.com/1Chimmf

Ray Takeyh in WSJ: "The specter haunting negotiations between Iran and the U.S. is neither congressional hawks nor alarmed Israelis. It is Lyndon Johnson. Although the Johnson administration is better known for the Vietnam War and the Great Society, it was also the architect of contemporary U.S. non-proliferation policy. And that sensible policy stands to be eviscerated by a deal over Iran's nuclear program. In October 1964, China detonated an atomic bomb, sending shock waves throughout the U.S. government. Suddenly it was not just selective Western nations that possessed the bomb but a revolutionary Asian power. Fears of nuclear know-how proliferating from East Asia to Latin America gripped U.S. policymakers. Under the direction of Roswell Gilpatric, former deputy secretary of defense, U.S. policy toward the bomb was evaluated and assessed. A report by the Gilpatric committee established parameters of U.S. policy toward proliferation that would guide successive administrations for the next five decades. In the wake of the committee's recommendations-accepted after spirited debate-the U.S. took a firm line on access to sensitive nuclear technologies by both adversaries and allies. It sought to prevent all countries from enriching uranium or reprocessing plutonium. Under the new strictures should, say, West Germany, Taiwan, or South Korea be tempted to pursue the technological precursors to the bomb, they would be risking their security ties to the United States. In short, it was in the 1960s that the United States became a proliferation hawk. In 1968 President Johnson signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that was to regulate civilian nuclear programs. Peaceful nuclear energy has industrial uses, but the U.S. government position held that there was no need for states to enrich uranium to benefit from atomic power. It was U.S. policy that becoming a signatory of the NPT meant that a nation could use nuclear energy but not necessarily develop certain technologies that could easily be converted for military purposes... U.S. actions on non-proliferation strained relations with many allies, including the enterprising shah of Iran. It is a talking point of the Islamic Republic today that Washington looked the other way and even assisted the shah as he sought to develop a nuclear weapon capability. This claim has been accepted as a truism by many U.S. policymakers and analysts. But the historical record belies such assertions. The Ford and Carter administrations opposed the shah's quest for completion of the fuel cycle and refused to give him access to sensitive nuclear technologies. Washington insisted that the shah, then head of a regime considered a reliable U.S. ally, forgo the capacity to either enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium. Any impending nuclear agreement with Iran would indeed be a landmark accord-for it would upend 50 years of U.S. policy. To be sure, there were failures along the way as India, Pakistan, and North Korea defied the U.S. and built their own bombs. But Washington did not facilitate their programs and, in each instance, tried to derail their efforts. Today, by contrast, the U.S. appears poised to concede to an adversarial regime not only an enrichment capacity but also one that is likely to be industrialized after the expiration of a sunset clause. This would have been like Washington aiding the Soviets in constructing the bomb in the 1940s or helping China in the 1960s. There is no dispute between the Obama White House and its critics that Iran is a revolutionary regime seeking to expand its influence in the Middle East. Tehran's destabilizing regional activities come at the detriment of the United States and its allies. The baffling part of all this is that Washington is seeking to conclude an agreement that envisions this radical regime gaining access to a sophisticated nuclear infrastructure that will not permanently be limited to peaceful exploitation of atomic power." http://t.uani.com/1HHlZV4

Lee Smith in The Weekly Standard: "Ever since I arrived for the P5+1 and Iran nuclear talks earlier in the week, colleagues warned that Iranian intelligence officers were watching everyone and recording everything. 'They're shameless,' one pro-democracy advocate in town for the talks told me. 'They come right up to you, stick a camera in your face and ask where you're from. Last time I was here, I told a journalist to watch out and sure enough his picture was up on the Fars site within two hours.' And it's not just the American and other Western journalists they're watching. In fact, the people they're watching most closely are other Iranians, including the families of Iranian-Americans held hostage by the clerical regime like Amir Hekmati, whose sister and brother-in-law I met in the Marriott lobby, adjacent to where the P5+1 talks are being held. Iranian dissidents and Iranian journalists based outside Iran are other popular targets. One European-based reporter who asked not to be named was convinced he was under constant surveillance and was indeed being watched as we spoke in the hotel. It seems that the main point the Iranian intelligence services want to drive home is not just that they want you to know they're watching. They want you to think they're always watching. It's curious that the White House has not said anything about the brazenly open activities of Iranian intelligence. After all, in March, the Obama administration accused Israel of spying on the American side involved in the nuclear negotiations. Israel denied targeting its superpower patron but was not shy to admit that it certainly does conduct surveillance of the Iranian side. And the latter are spying on everyone-even if the White House won't say anything about it. Nor are Western journalists, even if they are among the key targets for MOIS and IRGC operations. 'The Iranians are clearly at home because they turned Vienna into a police state,' said someone familiar with Iranian security tactics. 'They track and document the movements and interactions of journalists, analysts and politicians alike. Iranian reporters and delegates will certainly be held to account for any interactions with Westerners, whether they are journalists, analysts, U.S. government officials or strippers at Vienna's ubiquitous nightclubs.' 'Vienna,' said one Iranian dissident I met at the Marriott, 'is the center of Iranian intelligence operations in Europe.' ... Vienna 2015 is a world capital, and home to international organizations, like OPEC and the IAEA. The irony is that this is partly how the Iranians manage to get so many spies in to Vienna. According to the Iranian dissident, a Vienna resident for over a decade, the Iranians fill their delegations to those organizations and others with intelligence officers. The Austrians don't make a very big deal about it because, for among other reasons, they want to do business with the Islamic Republic-indeed, the Austrians are so eager to see Iran open again that Austrian industries have occasionally skirted sanctions... Iranian diplomats, like foreign minister Javad Zarif, have impressed their American counterparts and the Western press corps with their manners and sophistication. The reality is that their diplomatic efforts wouldn't be half as meaningful if it weren't for the Iranian intelligence officers swarming in the Marriott lobby and elsewhere like cockroaches. They're here to remind Western officials, even the Austrian government, how Iran enforces agreements-not through international organizations like the IAEA. No, that's simply a cover for Iranian spies. The way Tehran does it is through threats-backed by force of arms. Guns and bombs-yes, even in European cities." http://t.uani.com/1JJlyKo
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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