Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Eye on Iran: U.S. Suggests Open-Ended Iran Talks






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WSJ: "International powers negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran failed to meet another deadline on Tuesday, the second missed target in a week, raising the prospect of an open-ended diplomatic process over an issue on which President Barack Obama has staked his foreign-policy record. Senior administration officials in Vienna and Washington said progress was still being made and negotiators 'have never been closer' to a comprehensive deal to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting international sanctions. Mr. Obama has said talks would end in a deal that reflects a framework reached in April, or with no agreement at all. But with negotiations making little headway, the White House on Tuesday laid the groundwork for a third outcome: continuing talks while keeping in place a November 2013 interim agreement that provided Iran with limited sanctions relief in exchange for rolling back parts of its nuclear program... 'We've got some bipartisan agreement that this is an available approach that could benefit the United States and our negotiating partners in a way that continues to keep the pressure on Iran to reach a final agreement,' White House press secretary Josh Earnest said, adding that the U.S. 'won't walk away from the table as long as the negotiations continue to be useful.'" http://t.uani.com/1Tlfnxy

Reuters: "Iran has offered 'constructive solutions' to resolve disputes in nuclear talks with six major powers, the Iranian Students news agency ISNA reported on Wednesday, but Western officials suggested they had heard nothing new from Tehran... 'Iran has presented constructive solutions to overcome the remaining differences. We will not show flexibility regarding our red lines,' the Iranian diplomat, who was not identified, told ISNA. But Western officials indicated they have yet to see new proposals from Iran that could end the deadlock. The biggest sticking points include issues such as a United Nations arms embargo, U.N. missile sanctions, the speed of sanctions relief, and research and development on advanced nuclear centrifuges. 'I haven't seen anything new from Iran,' a Western diplomat close to the talks told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Another Western official echoed the remarks... Speaking to reporters late on Tuesday, a senior U.S. official suggested that the negotiations were approaching a moment of truth. 'I believe we will in the near term either get this deal or find out we can't,' the U.S. official said... 'Removing the remaining brackets, this seems to be very, very, very tough,' a senior Western diplomat told reporters... 'In the current context, it would be pretty obscene as a political message if we resolve the nuclear issue but then give them money and the capacity to import and export arms,' a senior Western official said." http://t.uani.com/1IJ7Aqo

AFP: "Iran talks have now entered the 'final' extension and have to conclude within 48 hours, a Western diplomat said Tuesday in Vienna. 'The talks are not 'without any deadline' or 'open-ended'... We have just done the final extension,' the diplomat said on condition of anonymity. 'It's difficult to see why and how we could go on any longer. Either this works in the next 48 hours or it doesn't,' the envoy said. This was echoed by a second Western diplomat, who said that the talks were 'not an open-ended process'. 'We've given ourselves a couple more days because we think it can be done,' the second envoy said on condition of anonymity... An Iranian spokesman told AFP however that for his delegation, 'we have no deadline.'" http://t.uani.com/1dLXx6Q

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AFP: "Iran urged global powers late Tuesday to drop a UN ban on arms sales to the country, describing it as an obstacle to a deal that was now in its final stages. The arms embargo was not overly important as Iran had developed its own industry, but global powers 'must change their approach on sanctions if they want a deal,' Iran's negotiator Abbas Araghchi said on state television, adding the final text and most of the annexes were 'almost finished.' 'Western nations must be prepared to give up sanctions,' Araghchi said. 'The structure of the sanctions must not stay in place. The P5+1 countries must change their approach to the sanctions if they want a deal.' US officials insisted however Tuesday that there would be 'ongoing restrictions on arms just like there will be ongoing restrictions regarding missiles' in any nuclear deal, which is to be endorsed by a resolution in the UN Security Council... Araghchi also repeated that the Iran team was not working to any deadline and were ready to stay in Vienna several more days. 'Extending for several months is no longer being considered,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1IJ8cfA

CNS: "As yet another deadline in the Iran nuclear talks slipped Tuesday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey said on Capitol Hill that the U.S. should not release any pressure on Iran relating to its ballistic missile program and conventional arms trade. 'Under no circumstances should we relieve pressure on Iran relative to ballistic missile capabilities and arms trafficking,' he told the Senate Armed Services Committee. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, also testifying in a hearing otherwise focused on countering the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) threat, told the committee, 'We want them [the Iranians] to continue to be isolated as a military, and limited in terms of the kind of equipment materiel they are able to get.' Asked by Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) why it was important to stop Iran from having an ICBM program, Carter said the reason was because 'the I in ICBM stands for intercontinental, which means having the capability to fly from Iran to the United States, and we don't want that.'" http://t.uani.com/1Hgk1ED

AFP: "But as they stare each down, both Iran and the United States have now insisted there is no target date, and they plan to keep talking in Vienna until a deal emerges or not. 'It's doable by tomorrow night (Thursday) if talks advance this evening,' said a Western diplomatic source... 'You always get to a place where you're at a precipice,' a senior US administration official said late Tuesday just hours after the talks were prolonged. Asked when the teams would know whether to keep talking or to walk away, the official replied: 'You know when that moment comes.' 'You're either going to pull back from the precipice, or you're going to go over the cliff.' The Western diplomatic source admitted: 'It's a psychological game too.' 'Zarif is under a lot of pressure. We'll see in the final analysis if we have hit a wall or not.'" http://t.uani.com/1dLXjww

Reuters: "German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Iran needs to help build trust, and a monitoring programme will be needed to ensure it complies with a nuclear agreement it is negotiating with six world powers. 'Trust has been destroyed on the part of Iran. For this reason, Iran above all has to now offer input to help build up trust,' Steinmeier said in advance extracts of an interview with German broadcaster ARD on Tuesday. 'This means that we have to have monitoring possibilities available to have an overview as to whether Iran is fulfilling its obligations. We need to be sure that we have transparency concerning the promises Iran is making here.' http://t.uani.com/1NOlRl0

Boston Globe: The US negotiating team here over the past five weeks has gone through 10 pounds of Twizzlers (strawberry flavored), 20 pounds of string cheese, 30 pounds of mixed nuts and dried fruit, and more than 200 Rice Krispies Treats. 'The number of espresso pods we've gone through,' said one top US official, 'is in the hundreds.' ... Behind all those photo-ops with Kerry and other diplomats in crisp suits and ornate conference rooms is an off-stage operation with the feel of a college dorm room during exam week, complete with all-nighters and off-color jokes... During idle hours, they have debated who among them would be played by what stars, if any producer for some reason decided to make a movie about how the United States and Iran tried to overcome decades of distrust to craft an agreement limiting Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb." http://t.uani.com/1NSzikC

Reuters: "Anyone who says it's all work and no play for the hordes of diplomats, officials, security agents, analysts and reporters who have descended on Vienna for what should be the finale of almost two years of Iran nuclear talks is dead wrong. As the manager of a local brothel said, when the Iran talks are in town, 'business is booming'. He declined to say who were his most frequent customers, but made clear that, as far as he was concerned, the longer the negotiations between Iran and six world powers drag on, the better." http://t.uani.com/1MeJxOV

Congressional Action

Politico: "If President Barack Obama announces a nuclear containment deal with Iran this week, an army of critics led by Republican hawks in Congress will leap into action to kill it. That's very unlikely to happen. The law that Congress passed in May allowing lawmakers to weigh in on a nuclear agreement will do just that - give them a say. But it also makes it impossible to block an agreement absent a full-on Democratic rebellion against the president. If opponents could somehow manage to get a resolution expressing their disapproval and blocking the lifting of congressional sanctions through both houses of Congress - a big if, given the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold - they'd run straight into Obama's veto pen. And even some of the fiercest opponents of an Iran pact concede the president could probably cobble together 34 votes in the Senate to sustain his veto... Indeed, the terms of the review law have allies of the president feeling confident that as long as the final deal is not wildly incompatible with the basic parameters announced in April - economic relief to Iran in return for slowing down its nuclear program - the deal will be safe from Congress." http://t.uani.com/1KT2QPa

National Journal: "President Obama will have to work hard over the coming weeks to assuage skeptical Democrats that his potentially imminent, legacy-defining accord limiting Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb meets their deep-seated concerns. While some outside observers don't expect that enough Democrats would stand with Republicans to vote against the deal and keep congressional sanctions intact, key Senate Democrats laid out before a White House meeting Tuesday night one requirement in particular-anywhere, anytime inspections-that could cause the administration trouble... Inspections are 'vital,' said Sen. Christopher Coons, a Democratic member of the Foreign Relations Committee, which wrote the bill laying out how Congress would review the prospective accord. 'That is a central point. Exactly what the mechanism is by which we have assurances that we can inspect sites reasonably quickly anywhere in the country is going to be a central piece of whether or not this is an agreement that we should sign, and whether or not this is an agreement that will enjoy broad congressional support.' 'There really has to be full access, anytime, to sites where there may be development or production of nuclear weapons,' added Sen. Richard Blumenthal." http://t.uani.com/1ColvRw

Free Beacon: "The White House is targeting Jewish groups in its latest push to blunt congressional criticism of an Iran deal that observers expect to be sealed in the coming days, according to a recording of a strategy conference call obtained by the Washington Free Beacon and experts familiar with the call. The White House's liaison to the Jewish community on Monday advised dozens of progressive groups to push a poll commissioned and distributed by the liberal fringe group J Street, which has been defending a deal with Iran. Matt Nosanchuk, an official in the White House Office of Public Engagement, who also serves as Jewish liaison, cited J Street's poll and urged liberal activists present on the call to cite its numbers when defending a deal with Iran." http://t.uani.com/1S8uDLT

Syria Conflict

AFP: "Syria's parliament on Tuesday approved a deal with Iran under which Tehran will provide the government a new line of credit worth $1 billion, state media said. The credit line will be the third that Tehran has extended to Damascus since the conflict in Syria erupted with anti-government protests in March 2011. 'The People's Council today approved a deal on a line of credit of $1 billion,' which was signed on May 19 in Damascus by Syria's Commercial Bank and the Export Development Bank of Iran, the official SANA news agency said. It said the credit would be used for 'importing merchandise and carrying out projects,' without giving further details." http://t.uani.com/1HaN2CA

Domestic Politics

WSJ: "During a spirited concert by the band Rastak, the Islamic Republic's hard-line religious conservatives faced a challenge that is increasingly common in Iran: three young women cheering too enthusiastically. As the friends, dressed in colorful head scarves, erupted in screams and applause, a stern woman in black emerged from the side of the auditorium here, pointing a finger and threatening to eject them. When they continued, another official snapped their pictures. They didn't seem intimidated at all. 'Are you sure you don't want to leave?' one of them shouted over the music with a smile to the security personnel. The women kept on cheering but were watched closely for the rest of the concert. The confrontation shows how hard-liners who have dominated Iran for a decade are bumping up against another force: Iran's rambunctious youth, most born long after the 1979 revolution. More than half of Iran's 75 million people are under 35 years old. Many are weary of overweening religious edicts, economic mismanagement and isolation brought by a decade of international sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1JOQ1ql

Opinion & Analysis

Chicago Tribune Editorial: "The U.S. and its allies may have a deal with Iran over its rogue nuclear program by the end of the week. Or they may all traipse through yet another self-imposed deadline as discussions go on in Vienna. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says the chances for a deal are 50-50. 'We want a good agreement, only a good agreement and we're not going to shave anywhere at the margins in order just to get an agreement,' he said last weekend. So who's sweating? Not the Iranians. A couple of weeks ago, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proclaimed his terms, several of which contradicted the terms reached in April in a tentative deal. Now Iran's negotiators are piling on more last-minute demands. They want the United Nations to lift restrictions on Iran's trade in missiles and other conventional arms. They act, at least publicly, as though they have all the leverage, that they know their adversary craves a deal more than they do. Where would they get that idea? Probably from the U.S. and its allies, who reportedly have been backpedaling on key points to eke out a deal... The U.S. and its allies should remember what Gerard Araud, the French ambassador to the U.S., tweeted earlier this year: 'We want a deal. They need a deal. The tactics and the result of the negotiation should reflect this asymmetry.' Iran's economy, crippled by U.S. and EU sanctions, is in shambles. Iran stands to reap as much as $150 billion in sanctions relief in a matter of months - money that could be used, as is Tehran's wont, to fund terror groups and operations across the globe... Iran needs a deal. These talks started 18 months ago. Iran is still feeling the economic pain. The U.S. still holds the option of imposing even more impactful sanctions on Iran's key industries and banks. President Barack Obama has said many times that he'd walk away from a bad deal. He will not get an effective agreement unless he means that. And he may well have to walk away." http://t.uani.com/1NOvVdQ
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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