Eye on Extremism - June 17, 2016

EYE on Extremism June 17,  Counter Extremism Project PBS NewsHour: This Computer Algorithm Might Be Able To Predict The Next ISIS Attack “Before opening fire on a crowded Orlando nightclub on Sunday, Omar Mateen had been investigated twice by the FBI. He had also posted Islamic State-related threats on Facebook and allegedly used the social media platform to search for information on the San Bernardino terrorists last month, according to a Senate Committee. But Mateen’s web activity didn’t trigger an alarm. Lone wolves are hard to stop, as President Obama pointed out two days after the attack and in fact, new research in Science Magazine shows lone actors shouldn’t be the top priority when it comes to tracking ISIS online – groups should. In the study, computer scientists charted the ecology of pro-ISIS activity in 2015 on Europe’s biggest social media platform, VKontakte. Like a modern Darwin on an electronic Galapagos, they examined an ecosystem rife with evolving groups of pro-ISIS supporters… ‘What you’re seeing is that groups like Daesh, ISIS, have weaponized the internet for purposes of recruiting, propaganda, calls to action,’ said former U.S. ambassador Mark Wallace, who is now CEO of the Counter Extremism Project. ‘[This research and ours shows] you could undermine the reach of Daesh by focusing on much smaller group sets rather than the ubiquitous nature of online discussion by Daesh.’” Washington Examiner: Facebook, Google, Twitter Sued Over ISIS Attacks “‘Social networks have long stressed they will help legitimate investigations of crimes and attacks, but have resisted efforts to police or censor the vast amounts of content flowing through them,’ Counter Extremism Project CEO Mark Wallace said on Thursday. ‘But social media groups are capable of doing more to prevent and remove horrific content from being streamed worldwide.’” CNN: Orlando Shooter Texted Wife During Attack, Source Says “The Orlando shooter and his wife exchanged text messages during the Pulse nightclub rampage, a law enforcement official briefed on the investigation told CNN. Around 4 a.m. on June 12, about two hours after he started the attack and while holed up in a bathroom, Omar Mateen texted his wife, Noor Salman, asking if she'd seen the news, the official said. At one point, she responded with a text saying that she loved him. Salman also tried calling her husband several times during the standoff, a second law enforcement official said. The timing of her calls came after reports of the attack had emerged, and apparently after she realized her husband might be responsible. He didn't answer, the official said.” Washington Post: Suspected Killer Of British Lawmaker Had Ties To Neo-Nazi Group, Watchdog Says “The man detained by police in connection with the killing of a rising star of British politics had longstanding ties to a U.S.-based neo-Nazi organization and, in the past, had ordered a how-to guide for assembling a homemade gun, according to a watchdog group that tracks extremist behavior. The revelation came as police on Friday continued to investigate the motive behind the killing of the British lawmaker, Jo Cox, who was stabbed and shot midday Thursday in an attack that stunned the nation and led to a suspension of the European Union referendum campaign just a week before the vote.” Daily Beast: CIA Chief John Brennan Gives War On ISIS An ‘F’ “The CIA says the so-called Islamic State is undiminished by almost two years of war, and will step up terrorist attacks worldwide as it loses territory in Iraq and Syria. Calling ISIS a “formidable, resilient” enemy, CIA director John Brennan said the group will likely switch to guerrilla tactics as it is driven off the battlefield and will send more of its Western operatives to attack Europe and beyond, while using social media to groom future lone wolves like U.S.-born Omar Mateen, 29, who killed 49 people Sunday in Orlando. ‘Our efforts have not reduced the group’s terrorism capability and global reach,’ Brennan told the Senate Intelligence Committee in grim testimony Thursday, just days after the gay nightclub attack, apparently inspired by ISIS.” CBS News: Iraqis Say ISIS Booted From Compound In Heart Of Key City “Iraq's military said Friday that it had entered the center of Fallujah, a city just 40 miles west of Baghdad that has been held for two years by militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and retaken a central government compound from the terror group. ‘The counter-terrorism service and the rapid response forces have retaken the government compound in the centre of Fallujah,’ Lieutenant General Abdulwahab al-Saadi, who is in command of the operation to retake Fallujah from ISIS, told the French news agency AFP. The chief of Iraq's national police force, Raed Shaker Jawdat, also told AFP of the advance, saying the ‘liberation of the government compound, which is the main landmark in the city, symbolises the restoration of the state's authority.’” Los Angeles Times: Islamic State Claims It Killed American Working At Air Base In Turkey “Islamic State on Thursday claimed it had killed a 61-year-old American citizen working at a Turkish air base used by U.S. warplanes to stage assaults on the militant group in neighboring Syria and Iraq. Thaddeus Borowicz’s body was discovered Monday morning at the entrance to his apartment building in the southeastern city of Adana, nearly 65 miles from the Syrian frontier. Initial news reports said that the Traverse City, Mich., native had fallen from the 10th floor after locking himself out of his unit and attempting to enter through a window. His death came to light after he failed to turn up for a shift at Incirlik Air Base, according to reports.” Reuters: Dozens Of U.S. Diplomats Urge Military Strikes Against Syria's Assad “More than 50 State Department diplomats have signed an internal memo sharply critical of U.S. policy in Syria, calling for military strikes against President Bashar al-Assad's government to stop its persistent violations of a civil war cease-fire. The ‘dissent channel cable’ was signed by 51 mid- to high-level State Department officers involved with advising on Syria policy. It was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. The cable calls for ‘targeted military strikes’ against the Syrian government in light of the near-collapse of the cease-fire brokered earlier this year, the Journal reported, citing copies of the cable it had seen. Military strikes against the Assad government would represent a major change in the Obama administration's longstanding policy of not intervening directly in the Syrian civil war, even as it has called for a political transition that would see Assad leave power.” Associated Press: Christian Militias Fighting IS In Iraq Hope For US Support “Clutching his rifle intently, the Iraqi recruit maneuvered between piles of bricks and cement obstacles. The sound of shooting pierced the air and he jumped behind a wall, lifted his rifle and imitated the staccato sound of gunfire. It was only a training exercise — the man is among the few dozen Assyrian Christian militiamen conducting military drills in a training camp at the foot of the mountains overlooking the Nineveh plains of northern Iraq. The militia, known as the Nineveh Plain Protection Units, or NPU, is one of three Christian armed groups hoping for American support after the U.S. House of Representatives called for direct assistance to be delivered to local security forces in the north of Iraq. American assistance ‘will give equality to all the ethnic groups here,’ said Col. Jawat Habib Abboush, the deputy commander of the group.” Associated Press: Cockpit Recorder Of Crashed Egyptair Jet Recovered From Sea “Egypt said Thursday it has recovered the cockpit voice recorder from the submerged wreckage of EgyptAir Flight 804, a major breakthrough in the investigation that could help resolve the mystery of why the jetliner plunged into the Mediterranean last month and killed all 66 people aboard. The announcement came a day after officials said they had found the wreckage of the Airbus A320 and are putting together a map of the debris on the seabed. Such images will help investigators determine whether the plane broke apart in the air or stayed intact until it struck the water, aviation experts said. The wreckage of the Paris-to-Cairo flight is believed to be at a depth of about 3,000 meters (9,800 feet). Previously, search crews found only small floating pieces of debris and some human remains.” Newsweek: Boko Haram: Nearly 700 Former Captives Treated For Malnutrition In Borno “Almost 700 former captives of Boko Haram are being treated for severe malnutrition, according to the state government of Borno in northeast Nigeria. The vast majority of those being treated are children, including 61 ‘critically malnourished’ young children and babies, the Borno state government said in a statement on Tuesday, AFP reported. A total of 478 children, 196 women and 23 men were brought to the state capital Maiduguri from the town of Bama on Monday. Boko Haram’s armed insurgency in Nigeria, which began in 2009, has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people and displaced more than 2 million. The northeast of the country, and Borno in particular, has been the worst-affected region. Between May 2011 and June 2016, more than 25,000 people have been killed in Borno state, the majority due to Boko Haram’s activities, which is almost nine times higher than the next deadliest state, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Nigeria Security Tracker.” Daily Mail: At Least 85 British Jihadis And Fighters Have Been Killed In Syria's Brutal Civil War, Michael Fallon Reveals   “At least 85 British jihadis and fighters involved in Syria’s bloody civil war have been killed, the Defence Secretary said today. Michael Fallon confirmed around 850 people linked to the UK and regarded as a security threat are now believed to have taken part in the conflict. While just under 50 per cent are thought to have returned to the UK, more than 10 per cent have been killed, Mr Fallon said. High-profile British deaths have included Mohammed Emwazi, who became known as Jihadi John after he appeared in propaganda videos from terror group Islamic State (IS) in which British and US hostages were murdered. He was killed in a drone strike last year.”\ United States The Guardian: CIA Has Not Found Any Link Between Orlando Killer And ISIS, Says Agency Chief “The Central Intelligence Agency chief has not been ‘able to uncover any link’ between Orlando killer Omar Mateen and the Islamic State, despite Mateen’s stated allegiance to the jihadist group during Sunday’s LGBT nightclub massacre. Reinforcing four days of internal government assessments across multiple agencies and a Federal Bureau of Investigation inquiry, the CIA director, John Brennan, contrasted ‘lone wolf’ killers in Orlando and San Bernardino last December with recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, which he told the Senate intelligence committee were ‘directed’ by Isis leadership in Syria and Iraq.” The Hill: CIA: Undaunted ISIS Is Expanding, Focused On Attacking West “The head of the CIA offered a dire outlook on the prospect of the United States rooting out the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), saying Thursday the terror group aims to extend its reach and is undaunted in carrying out attacks. The U.S.-led coalition has able to diminish the territory ISIS controls in Iraq and Syria, John Brennan told a Senate panel, and has ‘squeezed’ its financial and media operations. But ISIS’s ability to launch attacks remains as firm as ever, Brennan said, and its areas of control outside its self-proclaimed caliphate continue to grow. While military efforts against ISIS in Syria are proceeding, they have been hindered by the long civil war between rebels and President Bashar Assad, who is being aided by Russia, Brennan said. Assad’s grip on power is stronger than it was a year ago, the CIA chief added.” Associated Press: US Commander In Afghanistan Submits His 3-Month Take On War “The new U.S. commander in Afghanistan has submitted his first three-month assessment of the situation in the war-torn country and what it's going to take to defeat the Taliban, a U.S. military official has told The Associated Press. The report — and Nicholson's deployment to Afghanistan — come at a time of Taliban resurgence, with the group gaining ground in the southern provinces of the Taliban heartland.The Taliban's warm-weather offensive has shown the insurgents to be bolder and better organized, holding more territory now than at any time since 2001, when their regime was overthrown by the U.S.-led invasion, according to recent U.N. estimates. Past months have also exposed flaws in the Afghan military — weak leadership, lack of professionalism, complacency and corruption, analysts say. Both Afghan and U.S. military officials expect the summer fighting to be deadly for Afghan troops, who suffered a 28 percent increase in fatalities in 2015, compared to the year before, when around 5,000 were killed, according to an internal NATO tally seen by the AP..” U.S. News And World Report: Obama Administration Lays Out $56 Million Plan For Libya “The Obama administration is throwing its weight behind Libya's new UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), laying out a $56 million aid plan for the coming months. The State Department plans to reallocate $35 million in current and prior year funding to help the political transition in Tripoli, special envoy for Libya Jonathan Winer told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at a June 15 hearing. That includes $4 million for a United Nations-led Stabilization Facility, announced in April, to repair public infrastructure such as hospitals and water facilities.” Times Of Israel: US House Okays Funding Boost For Israel’s Missile Defense “Under the shadow of a presidential veto threat, the House of Representatives passed a defense appropriations measure Thursday that included $635.7 million for Israel’s missile defense programs. While the White House has offered conflicting explanations for its opposition to increased missile defense support for the Jewish state, pro-Israel groups on Thursday continued to criticize the administration’s reticence to accept the extra funding appropriated for Israel by the Republican-controlled House. The amount allocated to Israeli missile defense programs exceeded the sum requested by the Obama administration by over $400 million.” Syria Reuters: Air Strikes Hit Rebel-Held Parts Of Aleppo Hours Into Truce: Monitor “Air strikes hit rebel-held parts of Aleppo just hours into an announced 48-hour ceasefire and fighting carried on in and around the northern Syrian city, monitors and witnesses said. Aleppo, Syria's largest city before the civil war with a population of more than two million people, has been divided for years into rebel and government sectors. Capturing the city is one of President Bashar al-Assad's key strategic objectives. Russia, an ally of Syria, announced the truce there on Thursday but did not say which parties had agreed to it. There has been no public comment on the truce announcement from Assad's government or factions fighting his forces.” Reuters: Federal Plan For Northern Syria Advances With U.S.-Backed Forces “As an alliance of U.S.-backed militias advance against Islamic State in northern Syria, their political allies are making progress of their own toward a new federal system of government which they hope will take root in newly captured areas. The autonomous federation being planned by Syrian Kurdish parties and their allies is taking shape fast: a constitution should be finalised in three months, and possibly sooner, to be followed quickly by elections, a Kurdish official said. While Kurdish groups insist this is no separatist bid, it is set to redraw the map as U.N. diplomacy fails to make any progress toward ending the war that has splintered Syria into a patchwork of separately-run areas.” Iraq The New York Times: ISIS Committed Genocide Against Yazidis In Syria And Iraq, U.N. Panel Says “Islamic State forces have committed genocide and other war crimes in a continuing effort to exterminate the Yazidi religious minority in Syria and Iraq, United Nations investigators said on Thursday, urging stronger international action to halt the killing and to prosecute the terrorist group. The investigators detailed mass killings of Yazidi men and boys who refused to convert to Islam, saying they were shot in the head or their throats were slit, often in front of their families, littering roadsides with corpses. Dozens of mass graves have been uncovered in areas recaptured from Islamic State and are being investigated.” Turkey Time: Photographing Turkey’s Hidden War “In the Kurdish towns of southeastern Turkey, the war is coming home. Since the collapse of the peace process between the Turkish government and Kurdish rebels last year, a devastating conflict has unfolded in the urban centers of the region, pitting young militants against Turkish military and police. The Kurds are an ethnic minority group spread throughout Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, with hundreds of thousands more living in diaspora. Inside Turkey, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, known by the acronym PKK, has waged an insurgency against the central government on and off for decades. When the conflict reignited in the summer of 2015, a new generation of Kurds was initiated into the violence.” Afghanistan Fox News: Taliban Reportedly Use 'Beautiful' Boys To Infiltrate, Kill Afghanistan Police “Taliban leaders in Afghanistan reportedly are using an unusual Trojan horse against national police: ‘beautiful’ young boys held as sex slaves to get past checkpoints and kill police officers. The AFP reported that the attacks in southern Afghanistan have been crippling to the force and exploit the practice of ‘bacha bazi,’ which mean ‘boy play.’ The ancient custom is popular despite ISIS attacks on gay men in the region, according to the report. The Afghan government and insurgents have been fighting a 15-year war and the disarray within the Taliban has complicated those efforts. The Taliban have continued to launch major attacks on government forces despite the internal conflict, and the war has shown no sign of calming down over the past year.” Voice Of America: Coalition Concerned Over Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Clashes “NATO’s Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan says it is concerned about recent military clashes between Afghan and Pakistani border forces, and is urging both countries to resolve differences through diplomatic negotiations. Afghan and Pakistani forces have intermittently exchanged heavy gunfire since last Sunday, leaving at least four soldiers dead and more than 40 wounded. The shooting has, however, stopped since late Wednesday when the two sides declared a cease-fire. The potential for escalation worries the mission, said the coalition spokesman in Kabul, U.S. Army Brigadier General Charles Cleveland, on Thursday.” Yemen Voice Of America: UAE: War Is Not Over In Yemen “The United Arab Emirates clarified Friday that its role in the war in Yemen is not over, contrary to a statement made the day before that was allegedly taken out of context. The crown prince of Abu Dhabi had posted a statement from the state minister for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, on his official twitter that the war in Yemen is over for its troops after being a key ally in the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed rebels for over a year. An Arabic version of the statement, however, read that the war is only ‘practically’ over. Gargash told state media Friday that the statement was taken out of context and is far from true.” Egypt USA Today: Voice Recorder Could Solve Mystery Of Doomed Egyptair Flight “The damaged cockpit voice recorder recovered Thursday from doomed EgyptAir Flight 804 could provide enough information to determine if an act of terrorism caused the crash that killed 66 people last month, a former U.S. crash investigator said. Egypt's investigation committee said in a statement Thursday that a specially equipped ship salvaged ‘the part (of the recorder) that contains the memory unit, which is considered the most important part of the recording device.’ The Cairo-bound Airbus 320 crashed in the Mediterranean Sea on May 19, more than three hours after leaving Paris. Al Diehl, a former investigator for the National Transportation Safety Board, said the voice recorder can provide clues on what happened to the plane and what the crew tried to do to prevent the disaster.” Middle East The Jerusalem Post: Analysis: Ten Years After War Hezbollah Powerful But More Stretched Than Ever “The quiet prevailing on the Lebanese border is deceptive. The calm hides the regional arms race between the IDF and its arch-enemy Hezbollah. Ten years after the Second Lebanon War, the IDF is in the midst of transforming and improving itself. So too is the Shi’ite army.  Today Hezbollah can no longer be described as a terrorist organization. Rather it has evolved into an organized, hierarchic army. Armed with some 120,000 surface-to-surface rockets and missiles, its firepower eclipses that of most states in the world. Dozens of its projectiles are long-range, and accurate. Hezbollah possesses hundreds of drones that it uses in combat against Syrian Sunni rebels.” Libya Reuters: One Child Killed, Three Wounded By Air Strikes In Eastern Libya: Resident “Air raids in the eastern Libyan city of Derna killed one child and wounded three more, a resident and medical sources said, the second time in a week that civilians have been killed by strikes there. Military forces allied to Libya's eastern government have been carrying out regular air strikes in Derna which they say are targeting al Qaeda-linked militants. The strikes on Wednesday hit the seafront promenade in Derna, resident Abdessalem al-Tajouri told Reuters. Last Thursday an air strike hit a residential area in Derna, killing a woman and three children. Ahmed al-Masmari, a spokesman for the eastern military, said Derna residents had been helping al Qaeda and had to ‘take responsibility for their actions’.” Reuters: Bomb Kills 10 West Of Islamic State's Besieged Libyan Stronghold “A suicide car bomber hit a Libyan police station west of the besieged Islamic State stronghold of Sirte on Thursday, killing 10 people and wounding seven, officials said. The attack at Abu Grain, on the coast road some 140 km (85 miles) west of Sirte and 100 km south of Misrata, showed the militants, although on the back foot in the battle for Sirte, can still strike outside the city. Brigades from Misrata are leading the campaign to recapture Sirte and have engaged in fire fights with Islamic State since pushing to the edge of the city centre last week. Rida Issa, a spokesman for the brigades, said Thursday's casualties were believed to include civilians as well as policemen. Earlier on Thursday the brigades' media office said two other car bombs had been destroyed in Sirte before they could be used.” United Kingdom The Guardian: Counter-Terrorism Detectives Arrest East London Teenager “A teenager has been arrested by counter-terrorism detectives for allegedly encouraging terrorism through the use of social media. The 15-year-old boy was detained after a raid on Thursday in east London. Scotland Yard said officers were searching the home where the teenager lived and he remains in custody. Counter-terrorism officials have intensified their efforts against ‘cyber-jihad’, used in particular by Islamic State to encourage recruits and incite attacks. Scotland Yard has a special unit scouring the internet and social media platforms for content supporting violent extremism. The European law enforcement agency Europol has also boosted its efforts.” Germany Deutsche Welle: Patrolling For Pickpockets And Terrorists At Berlin's Euro 2016 Fan Mile “The combination of more frequent terrorist attacks elsewhere and the large-scale sexual assaults in Cologne last New Year's Eve have made many people nervous about public celebration. But Berlin's Fanmeile (‘fan-mile’) has become an institution in the German capital since it was inaugurated for the home World Cup in 2006. Despite all this, and despite the heady scent of bratwurst and Pils and the promise of power pop, Germany's first two Euro 2016 games have only attracted between 10,000 and 20,000 people to the Fanmeile, whose capacity is 200,000. This is probably only partly down to security fear - the weather has not been friendly so far, and both games happened late on a week day - but the anxiety is still there across Berlin.” France CNN: Arguments Grow In France Over 'Missed Signals' With Police Killer Larossi Abballa “The killer of a French police officer and his partner at their home outside Paris on Monday had previously spoken of his desire to launch terror attacks on French soil, according to court documents obtained by CNN. French terror attacker threatened Euro 2016 in Facebook video, source says. According to the records, communications by Larossi Abballa in 2011 ‘highlight the fact that he seemed also a volunteer to commit violent actions in France,’ in addition to wanting to be a jihadist fighter overseas. Given Abballa's record, and the fact that he was recently placed under investigation for alleged involvement in a jihadist recruiting cell for Syria, many in France are asking why he was not under more intense surveillance, or even house arrest.” International Business Times: ISIS In Europe: Orphans Of Terrorism ‘Adopted’ By France After Charlie Hebdo And Paris Islamic State Attacks  “These orphans of terrorism were joined Monday by yet another young child, this time a 3-year-old boy whose parents were killed in suburban Paris in an attack reportedly inspired by the Islamic State group. President François Hollande announced Tuesday the boy and his half-sibling would become ‘pupilles de la nation,’ or ‘wards of the nation.’ Created after World War I for orphans of veterans, the little-known status has been more recently applied to children orphaned by terror attacks, and the program can provide for everything from money to buy baby formula to college tuition. With the number of terror victims spiking in the past year, dozens of children are now discovering the tangible support and symbolic burden of being adopted by the French state.” Technology Reuters: Family Of U.S. Student Killed In Paris Attacks Sues Social Media Companies “The family of a California design student killed in November's attacks in Paris sued Twitter Inc, Google and Facebook Inc, claiming the social media companies provide ‘material support’ to the militant group Islamic State. Nohemi Gonzalez's family filed the lawsuit on Tuesday in federal court in San Francisco, asking the court to rule that the companies are violating the U.S. Anti-Terrorism Act. It seeks compensatory damages to be determined by the court. ‘For years, defendants have knowingly permitted the terrorist group ISIS to use their social networks as a tool for spreading extremist propaganda, raising funds and attracting new recruits,’ the lawsuit said. The lawsuit charged that the companies' ‘material support’ has enabled Islamic State to recruit, and to fund and carry out numerous terror attacks, including the attacks in Paris last November that killed 130 people, including Gonzalez, who was a California State University student studying abroad at the time.” Associated Press: Disrupting Pro-ISIS Online 'Ecosystems' Could Help Thwart Real-World Terrorism “Supporters of the Islamic State, or ISIS, around the world gather online, becoming members of virtual communities in much the same way any of us might join online groups focused on some common interest. The videos, audio messages, letters, chatter and know-how that they then share are much more sinister than typical online hobbies, though. They may ultimately inspire terrorist acts by individuals who have no prior history of extremism, no formal cell membership, no direct links to leadership. How does this online support for ISIS manage to not just survive but thrive – even in the face of plenty of online anti-ISIS opposition? The importance and urgency of this question couldn’t be greater, particularly given the uncertainties surrounding recent terrorist attacks by ‘inspired’ individuals in the United States, as in San Bernardino and Orlando.”