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TOP
STORIES
Iran's
semi-official ISNA news agency reports that the country's foreign
minister and his international counterparts will meet this month to
discuss "some differences" over the implementation of the
landmark nuclear deal. The Wednesday report says they will focus
on banking sanctions, which Iran complains have not been fully
lifted. The meeting will take place Sep. 22, on the sidelines of the
United Nations General Assembly. It will be the first
ministerial-level meeting between Iran and world powers since the
deal went into effect in January... Iran and the U.S, Britain,
France, Russia, China and Germany have a right to call a
ministerial-level meeting if they believe the deal is not being
implemented as agreed.
In
an election-year broadside, the Republican-led House Foreign Affairs
Committee approved legislation Wednesday to prohibit the United
States from making cash payments to Iran and require that Congress be
notified before any future claims settlements with Tehran are
conducted... The committee's chairman, Rep. Ed Royce of California,
said President Barack Obama made it easier for Iran to funnel money
to Hezbollah and other terrorist groups by delivering Tehran virtually
untraceable cash. "We are basically doing their money
laundering for them, in a sense," Royce said. Obama said
last month at a Pentagon news conference that cash was delivered
"because we couldn't send them a check and we couldn't wire the
money. We don't have a banking relationship with Iran which is part
of the pressure we applied on them." But Royce said he
recently learned that the administration used a bank wire to send
Iran $8.6 million for 32 metric tons of heavy water.
Iran
is to stage a huge military parade on September 21 under the same
'Yes We Can' slogan made famous by Barack Obama in his 2008
presidential election campaign. The parade will be held in the
capital Tehran and the southern port city of Bandar Abbas as part of
what is known as Sacred Defense Week... The main aim of the
exercise appears to be to showcase the abilities of Iran's maritime
forces.
SANCTIONS
RELIEF
South
Korea's imports of Iranian crude oil nearly doubled from a year ago
in August, as Tehran continues to regain market share after the
easing of Western sanctions. Seoul shipped in 1.1 million tonnes
of crude oil from Iran, or 260,770 barrels per day (bpd), versus
552,710 tonnes imported a year earlier when sanctions against Tehran
were still in place... In line with its effort to reclaim former
sales, Iran has churned out oil at a breakneck pace this year,
reaching 3.64 million bpd in June versus a 2015 average of 2.84
million bpd, following the easing of Western sanctions in
January. But output has stalled since June, suggesting Iran
might be struggling to fulfill its plans to raise production to new
highs while demanding to be excluded from any deals on supply curbs
by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aimed
at shoring up weak global oil prices... Iranian oil sales to Asia may
stay strong as the OPEC producer cut September prices for its Iranian
Light grade to the lowest in eight months.
"Russian
banks are welcome in Iran, where the Russian-Iranian Chamber of
Commerce is actively working on opening a joint Russian-Iranian bank,
Bahram Amirahmadiyan of the Russia-Iran Friendship Society told
Sputnik Persian. Last week the Russian newspaper Izvestiya
reported that Russian banks are at the front of the queue to enter
Iran's banking sector after the partial lifting of sanctions... The
newspaper reported that the two countries' central banks recently
held talks on the management of closer financial cooperation, and ten
of Russia's largest banks are preparing financial services for the
Iranian market... Russia's trade representative in Iran Andrey
Lugansky told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that following the lifting of
sanctions, many Iranian companies conducting business through
overseas subsidiaries will return their business to Iran and conduct
their trade directly. "We want to carry out all our trade
operations in our national currencies, (although) this issue has not
been resolved yet," Amirahmadiyan said. "Of course, the
prospect of Russian banks opening in Iran is very attractive and important
because it can widen and improve our economic cooperation. At the
moment, all banking operations between Russia and Iran are carried
out in dollars or euros. It's very inconvenient, because all these
operations are controlled either by the EU or US central banks."
Amirahmadiyan said that the Russian ruble could also benefit from the
banks' entry to the Iranian market, which would enable Iranian
companies to buy Russian goods in rubles... A single Iranian bank
currently operates in Russia, called "Mir Business Bank."
The bank is a subsidiary of Bank Melli Iran and 70 percent of its
customers import and export goods such as grain, timber and food
products between Russia and Iran... While Russian firms are keen to
increase trade with Iran, their Western counterparts still appear
fearful of repercussions from the authorities."
TERRORISM
Former
[Lebanese] Prime Minister Saad Hariri lambasted Iran's actions in the
region, saying that it plays a direct role in breeding and spreading
terrorism in the Islamic world and leading a wide operation to
destroy the Arab societies.
SAUDI-IRAN
TENSIONS
A
senior Saudi official, responding to Iranian criticism of Riyadh's
management of the haj pilgrimage, urged Iran to end what he called
wrong attitudes towards Arabs and warned it against any use of force
in its rivalry with the kingdom... The remarks... follow an escalating
war of words between Shi'ite Muslim Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia since
a crush at the annual haj pilgrimage a year ago in which hundreds of
pilgrims, many of them Iranians, died.
DOMESTIC
POLITICS
Former
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is trying harder than ever to make a
political comeback. His path is sure to be filled with many
challenges, considering that he faces opposition not only among much
of the Iranian public and the Reformists, but even some figures
within his own Principlist camp... Still, Ahmadinejad appears to
be more active by the day. His many provincial visits and speeches
have even prompted objections from some officials within the
administration of President Hassan Rouhani... The question is how can
a person who won two presidential elections by relying on Principlist
support possibly hope to make a comeback amid blunt criticism from
the Principlists? Prominent Tehran University professor Sadegh
Zibakalam told Al-Monitor, "Ahmadinejad knows that he is the
only person who can challenge Rouhani. He also knows that the
Principlists have no other candidate except him. [Former nuclear
negotiator] Saeed Jalili and [Tehran Mayor] Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
have already faced defeat against Rouhani in the previous vote. They
do not have the ability to compete against Rouhani. Also, Ahmadinejad
hopes that as the 2017 election nears, he can convince the
Principlists to support him." For now, it is uncertain
whether the Principlists will be willing to accept another defeat to
Rouhani or be ready to succumb to Ahmadinejad and his many
challenges. Or perhaps Ahmadinejad's prediction will come true and
there will be no Rouhani in the May 2017 vote.
OPINION
& ANALYSIS
As
we've learned, this deal was sold to the American people based on
lies and manipulation. Over the past year, Iran has received a
lot: the recognition by the international community of the
"right to enrich" nuclear material, billions of dollars in
sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, new business interest,
legitimacy on the world stage, and a $400 million cash payment for
hostages from President Obama. So what has America gotten out of
this deal?... Iran has become increasingly aggressive and
cavalier in its support for terrorism and dangerous proxy groups and
regimes, like Hezbollah and Syria's Bashar al Assad... Iran has also
continued its illicit ballistic missile launches. President
Obama promised the "most comprehensive...inspection and
verification regime ever negotiated," but the basic requirements
of the deal haven't even been met. A new report shows that the
nuclear deal's enforcement body, the Joint Commission, granted Iran
secret exemptions to evade some requirements and
restrictions. With each passing day, Iran becomes more immune to
future efforts to limit its nuclear potential... However, with
cowardly party moves blocking a vote on the Iran deal altogether,
it's no wonder President Obama continues to govern as if Congress
doesn't exist. It is this brand of crony politics that Americans
are so fed up with. There are at least 17 bills that have been
introduced just since January that would strengthen our stance on
Iran, and Leader McConnell hasn't brought a single one to the floor
for a vote. The Senate should recommit itself to taking a
vote--a real vote--on this vital issue of national security and
constitutional order while we still have time this
session. Though Obama may veto what we pass and keep us going
down a path that threatens our national security, Senate Republicans
must be willing to show the American people there is a better vision
for our foreign policy and lead by example. If not, I hope the
next Congress, and the next president, will approach U.S.-Iran policy
with more courage and accountability to the American people.
Last
year's nuclear deal has removed for now the threat of a U.S.-Iranian military
confrontation. But the deal rests on shaky ground... The
Iranians are threatening to renege unless they receive greater
economic benefits. In Congress, many Republicans and even some
Democrats still want the deal's collapse. Even if the accord survives,
its nuclear restrictions start ending in about seven years - meaning
the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran could re-emerge... By 2024,
Iran can resume manufacturing and testing of advanced centrifuges for
enriching uranium. A year later, it can start enriching more uranium.
By the end of the decade, it can enrich closer to weapons-grade
levels. Stockpile limits come off. Enhanced U.N. inspections start
ending. All these changes will pose a familiar question for the
United States: How to ensure Iran can't build a bomb? U.S. officials
have vaguely spoken of a possible follow-up negotiation. But by then,
many U.S. sanctions on Iran will have been stricken from the books
and they could have far less leverage.
For
the third time since the Iran nuclear agreement's implementation, the
International Atomic Energy Agency has released a report omitting key
information that would enable independent verification of Iranian
compliance. The lacunae, which follow the revelation that Tehran
received exemptions for key nuclear obligations, reflect a broader
lack of transparency surrounding the accord over the past year. If,
in fact, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is verifiably
preventing the Islamist regime from acquiring a nuclear weapon, the
United States and its international partners should welcome rather
than fear public scrutiny of Iranian steps to implement
it... Rather than accept the IAEA's incomplete reporting as a
fait accompli, the Obama administration should insist upon a full
public accounting of Iran's nuclear activities moving forward. As the
president himself once argued, the absence of public accountability
sets a deleterious precedent that would embolden and enable Iran to
continue skirting the requirements of the deal. If Washington's passivity
continues, it should not be surprised if Tehran expands its nuclear
program beyond the boundaries permitted by the agreement.
Of
course, Zarif is right. Wahhabism is indeed a danger to the world, a
scourge of extremism Salafi ideology that successive Saudi regimes
have inflicted upon the Muslim (and Christian and Jewish)
world. And Zarif is right that the Saudis have used their wealth
to hire lobbyists and directly to buy friends in the United States
and Europe, which has surely influenced policy in their favor.
But then Zarif stops, and it is in his silence where we find the
hypocrisy, dishonesty and sheer Machiavellian predacity of the Tehran
regime... Because, you see, Zarif is only concerned with Sunni
terrorism, but Iran is the veritable godfather of modern terrorism,
the government that has taken proxy war through terrorist groups to
its current state, the regime that until 9/11 had helped kill more
Americans than the Saudis would ever care to. And worse yet, unlike
the Saudi government, which has actually begun to grapple with its
problems and its legacy, Iran has merely doubled and tripled down on
its terror model.
In
what's becoming almost a recurring theme, Iran's Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote an op-ed in the New York Times attacking
Saudi Arabia... The opinion piece, titled "Let Us Rid the
World of Wahhabism" - a reference to the puritanical strain of
Islam incubated in the kingdom - pinned the blame for Islamist
terrorism largely on the legacy of Saudi support for extremist groups,
as well as the country's financing of orthodox mosques around the
world. Iran, of course, is hardly a good guy here. Zarif's
piece avoids any mention of his own regime's role in fomenting
religious violence across the region, including its direct support to
a string of proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Iran-Russia
relations have reached an unprecedented peak, fueled by military
cooperation in Syria, a shared vision of the global order, and mutual
criticism of Western policy in the Middle East. Tehran is a
useful ally to Moscow in a highly unstable region, but it is just one
thread in Moscow's patchwork of important relationships that need
careful balancing. Moscow offers Tehran a critical means of protecting
its regional security interests. However, Iran's leadership is
divided on how best to hedge bets between Eastern and Western powers
to achieve the country's strategic objectives. Despite their
differences, the war in Syria looks set to be the crucible of
Moscow-Tehran cooperation for some time to come, given its centrality
to the strategic ambitions of both parties.
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