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The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard is
reportedly warning Washington against imposing sanctions on Tehran,
saying U.S. military bases in the region would be at risk.
"As we've announced in the past, if America's new law for
sanctions is passed, this country will have to move their regional
bases outside the 2,000 km range of Iran's missiles," Mohammad
Ali Jafari said on Sunday, according to an Iranian state media report
cited by Reuters. Jafari also addressed the White House's
announcement on Friday that President Trump would respond to Iran's
support for "terrorism," a reference to the influential
Revolutionary Guard security force. "If the news is
correct about the stupidity of the American government in considering
the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist group, then the Revolutionary
Guards will consider the American army to be like Islamic State all
around the world particularly in the Middle East," he said.
[T]he administration needs to explain the distinction it
is drawing: It must emphasize that it is not pulling out of the JCPOA
and is not asking Congress to restore the sanctions that were waived
under the deal. But it should say that the U.S. is not going to
acquiesce in Iran's dangerous behavior and is, therefore,
decertifying to put the world on notice that at some point in the
next six to 12 months the U.S. will walk away from the deal if the
JCPOA's sunset provisions, Iran's testing of ballistic missiles, and
its regional misbehavior are not addressed.
If any former Obama administration officials, European
diplomats or arms-control advocates are reading this, I have some
reassuring news. President Donald Trump will not be killing your
precious Iran nuclear agreement. Yes, the president is expected next
week to decertify Iranian compliance with the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action. Which would indeed throw the matter to Congress,
which then has 60 days to re-impose crippling sanctions. But none of
that means the U.S. will be unilaterally withdrawing from the nuclear
deal. If Trump wanted to re-impose secondary sanctions on Iran's oil
exports and banking system, he could order the U.S. Treasury
Department to do that on his own. He doesn't need to decertify Iranian
compliance through the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act... The
reality is that Trump is asking Congress to codify the terms of a
better Iran nuclear deal so that it can be used as leverage with
European allies to push Iran for more concessions. If the president
wanted to get the U.S. out of the nuclear deal, he would have done it
already.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iranian media outlets and government sanctioned
businesses are peddling false affiliations and dealings with western
businesses such as Toyota and Dupont, documents obtained by The Daily
Caller News Foundation reveal. The fake dealings were uncovered by a U.S.-based
advocacy organization, United Against Nuclear Iran, that is working
to prevent the regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. The group sent
letters to dozens of the western businesses supposedly doing business
in Iran, and several responded to say the regime entities were
blatantly lying, as they have no business whatsoever with the
country.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
European officials and business executives are quickly
mobilizing a counter effort to the expected U.S. rebuff of the Iran
nuclear accord, encouraging companies to invest in Iran while urging
Congress to push back against White House moves that could hobble the
deal. The European stance - sketched out on the sidelines of an
Iran-focused investment forum in Zurich this week - is an early
signal of the possible transatlantic rifts ahead as the United
States' European partners show no sign of following the White House
call to renegotiate the landmark pact with Tehran.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani defended the nuclear
deal with Western powers Saturday and said that U.S. President Donald
Trump could not undermine it... "In the nuclear negotiations and
agreement we reached issues and benefits that are not reversible. No
one can turn that back, not Mr. Trump or anyone else," Rouhani
said...
Iranian officials are refusing to make any changes to
the landmark 2015 nuclear deal signed with six world powers, as U.S.
President Donald Trump weighs whether to declare that Tehran isn't
complying with the accord. Keeping the deal intact is an economic imperative
for Iran, which has seen a rush of new investment and trade since it
took effect.
The Iran nuclear deal is broken and is, as President
Trump noted in speaking to the United Nations, an embarrassment. But
on Oct. 15, the next deadline for his assent or dissent, he should
nevertheless certify Iran's compliance. This seems contradictory and
appeasing, but it isn't. It's sensible diplomacy based squarely on a
results-based calculation about the best way to force Iran to do what
we need them to do.
If the White House decertifies the Iran deal, RBC
Capital Markets is warning investors that oil prices could jump.
Helima Croft, the firm's global head of commodity strategy, is
watching next Thursday, October 12 very closely. That's the day when
President Donald Trump is expected to deliver a key speech on Iran
policy. There's speculation that Trump will move to unravel the
international deal, signed under President Barack Obama, that curbs
Iran's nuclear program. "It's a very significant development
that could happen next week," Croft said on CNBC's "Trading
Nation" this week.
Donald Trump was frustrated. Five days earlier, on July
12, 2017, the president had decided for the second time in his young
administration that he would certify to Congress Iran's compliance
with the nuclear deal he'd promised as a candidate to dismantle. He
wasn't happy with the decision he'd made, and he was angry about the
process that led to it. His top national security aides had presented
him with a narrow range of options that did not include leaving the
deal-or even simply "decertifying" it. On July 13, The
Weekly Standard was the first to report Trump's reluctant decision.
An article in state-run Islamic Republic News Agency
(I.R.N.A.) analyzes Tehran's options if the United States
unilaterally abandons the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - the
nuclear agreement Iran signed with world powers in July 2015. It
points out that the Trump administration appears to be refusing to
certify Iran's compliance with the J.C.P.O.A. despite objections from
the other signatories of the deal - Germany, France, Britain, Russia
and China. While de-certification does not mean Washington is leaving
the deal, "it is considered a step toward unraveling it,"
the article warns. According to the analysis, the Trump administration
is throwing the future of J.C.P.O.A. in doubt in order to "seek
concessions from Tehran, preparing the ground for countering Iran in
the region, and promoting domestic propaganda for Trump."
The Washington Post reported yesterday that next week,
President Donald Trump may announce that he will
"decertify" the Iran nuclear deal because it is not in the
interest of the United States to continue implementing it. The
administration faces an October 15 deadline to certify to Congress
that Iran is complying with the agreement and that it remains in the
United States's interest to follow it, as mandated by the Iran
Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). The announcement would be part
of the broader introduction of a new U.S. strategy toward Iran that
would address the country's support for terrorism, involvement in
Middle East violence and ballistic missile development, in addition
to the nuclear issue. In a meeting with senior military leaders
yesterday, Trump once again criticized Iran's behavior and asserted
that the country has "not lived up to the spirit of their
agreement." He did not say that Iran has violated any of its
concrete obligations under the agreement.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC-MISSILE PROGRAMS
Iran has suggested to six world powers that it may be
open to talks about its ballistic missile arsenal, seeking to reduce
tension over the disputed programme, Iranian and Western officials
familiar with the overtures told Reuters. Tehran has repeatedly
vowed to continue building up what it calls defensive missile
capability in defiance of Western criticism, with Washington saying
the Islamic Republic's stance violates its 2015 nuclear deal with the
powers. But the sources said that given U.S. President Donald Trump's
threats to ditch the deal reached under his predecessor Barack Obama,
Tehran had approached the powers recently about possible talks on
some "dimensions" of its missile programme.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
President Trump has made clear his hostility toward the
Iran nuclear deal, labeling it "one of the worst and most
one-sided transactions the United States has entered into." He
is right: The ill-constructed deal left Iran with an industrial-scale
nuclear program which, when the pact's terms begin to expire, will
provide Iran with a clear pathway to nuclear weapons. But true
leadership requires Mr. Trump to do more than focus solely on Iran's
nuclear program; he must also address the broader threats that Iran
poses to the region.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Firuzeh Mahmoudi didn't mean to start a human-rights
movement. It was June 20, 2009, and in Berkeley, California, the
American-Irani, who left Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution,
watched on social media as tens of thousands of reformist Iranians
protested on the streets of Tehran at what they saw as a rigged
election. On the outskirts of the rally, a dark-haired young woman
strolled in the crowd when gunfire suddenly rang out. As video of the
incident went viral, the world saw Nedā Āghā-Soltān die of a chest
wound. "It broke my heart," says Mahmoudi, 46. "So I
decided to do something."
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The European Union has decided to set duties on
hot-rolled steel from Brazil, Iran, Russia and Ukraine after a
complaint by EU manufacturers that the product used for construction
and machinery was being sold at excessively low prices. The EU
will levy anti-dumping tariffs of between 17.6 and 96.5 euros
($20.6-112.8) per tonne from Saturday, its official journal said.
The European Commission had initially proposed setting a
minimum price - of 472.27 euros per tonne - but revised its proposal
after failing to secure backing from EU member states. European steel
association Eurofer, which brought the complaint, said it was happy
the minimum price proposal had been dropped, but expressed
disappointment that the Commission had opted for fixed-price rather
than normal percentage tariffs.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Syrian rebels backed by Turkey are engaged in a
"serious operation" in the country's Idlib province,
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, part of a joint mission with
Russia and Iran to monitor a ceasefire agreement and pacify a rebel
stronghold in northwest Syria. Turkey also beefed up troops on the
border since the three countries agreed to establish a combat-free
zone in Idlib -- largely controlled by former al-Qaeda militants --
and to monitor any violations by opposition groups or forces loyal to
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It isn't clear when Turkish troops
will cross the Syrian border. On Saturday, Free Syrian Army rebels,
riding on the back of trucks with automatic weapons, crossed into
Idlib via Turkey as troops received orders about where they will be
deployed in Syria, Hurriyet newspaper reported. Erdogan said Turkish
troops haven't yet crossed the border and the operation was carried
out by the FSA rebels. The troops had earlier clashed their way to
retake Syrian town of al-Bab from Islamic State.
IRAQ CRISIS
Up until the last day before the Sept. 25 Kurdish
independence referendum, Iran was still dealing with the event with a
sense of disbelief and with the misconception that it would be called
off at the last moment. The assumption was that the de facto head of
the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Massoud Barzani, was only
maneuvering to negotiate a better deal with the central government in
Baghdad with respect to the region's autonomy - on both the political
and the economic side. Iran thought that Barzani was looking for
Iranian-Turkish support for future talks, while already having an
American green light to escalate to the edge of the abyss, and that
things would then be better. This was the case when Iranian Chief of
General Staff Mohammad Bagheri visited Ankara and met with high-level
Turkish officials and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in August.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
A dual national member of Iran's nuclear negotiating
team has been jailed for five years for spying, news agency Tasnim
said on Sunday, citing a spokesman for the judiciary. Gholamhossein
Mohseni Ejei named the convicted man as Abdolrasul Dori Esfahani,
without identifying his second nationality. Tasnim reported the
sentence on Wednesday without naming Dori Esfahani or detailing the
charges. Tasnim reported in July last year that he was in charge of
banking affairs during the talks. According to Iranian media,
he has Iranian and Canadian citizenship. "He was one
of the people accused of spying and passing intelligence to strangers
and he was linked to two intelligence agencies," Mohseni Ejei
said. He said Dori Esfahani's five-year sentence was upheld after a
failed appeal, Tasnim reported. Dori Esfahani also faces charges of
financial corruption, Mohseni Ejei said.
Iran's semi-official ILNA news agency is reporting that
the country's authorities have banned former reformist President
Mohammad Khatami from appearing at public ceremonies for three
months. The Saturday report quotes Mohammad Anjam, Khatami's lawyer,
as saying that a letter attributed to a judicial authority has been
delivered to Khatami house saying that he has been barred from public
political, cultural and promotional ceremonies for three months
starting September 23.
An Iranian news website says authorities have arrested
the brother of the country's senior vice president, apparently over
finance-related matters. The Tabnak site, affiliated with the
Revolutionary Guard, reported on Friday that Eshaq Jahangiri's brother,
Mahdi Jahangiri, was taken into custody. The report did not
elaborate. Mahdi Jahangiri runs the Tehran Chamber of Commerce and is
also the founder of the private Gardeshgari Bank. The senior vice
president posted on his Instagram account that he doesn't have any
precise information about any charges or accusations against his
brother but that the detention was "predictable" and that
he hopes it isn't a case of political "abuse." In July,
President Hassan Rouhani's brother, Hossein Fereidoun, was also detained
on allegations of financial misconduct. He was released on a $15
million bail.
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