Monday, October 16, 2017

Eye on Iran: McMaster: Trump Laid Down a Marker for Iran, Allies to Fix 'Weak' Deal


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President Trump's national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, said on Sunday that the president's threat to cancel the multinational Iran deal laid out a marker for U.S. allies and Iran to fix the "weak" deal.  "What the president has done is, he has set out a marker, a marker to Iran, our allies and our partners that we have to fix fundamental flaws in this deal," McMaster said on "Fox News Sunday."


President Trump on Friday officially disavowed the international nuclear deal with Iran, undermining but not terminating an agreement he called weak and poorly constructed. The administration asked Congress to attach new caveats that could either alter the pact or lead to its rupture. Sounding frustrated and angry, Trump also threatened to unilaterally withdraw from the seven-nation accord if his concerns are not met.


President Trump announced on Friday his decision to disavow the Iran nuclear agreement, threatening to leave the deal altogether if it was not amended to permanently block Tehran from building nuclear weapons or intercontinental missiles. But even as he delivered a fire-breathing indictment of the Iranian government's activities around the Middle East, he stopped short of unraveling the agreement reached by President Barack Obama two years ago.

UANI IN THE NEWS


"This should be a wake-up call call to both businesses and to our allies and other countries that it can't be business as usual with Iran, regardless of what you think about the Iran nuclear deal," said Mark Wallace, CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.


'United Against Nuclear Iran' chairman Joe Lieberman joins FNC's Maria Bartiromo to discuss the president's choice to leave the Iran nuclear deal up to Congress and the extent to which North Korea and Iran are working together.  "I think the president made the right decision, he did it in the right way," the former Democratic vice presidential candidate said. "He could have withdrawn from the whole thing the other day."


This is one of the really important things that President Trump did on Friday, and Friday was an important day. Some say oh, he kicked it over to Congress. No, he took what had been statements before, made it official American Policy, and said fix this or I'm going to withdraw it, and he has an absolute right in my opinion as commander-in-chief to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, because it's not even an agreement. It wasn't a contract both parties signed. It wasn't a treaty that Congress, the Senate, ratified. It was sort of simultaneous diplomatic promises.


As Abba Eban observed, "Men and nations behave wisely when they have exhausted all other resources." So it goes with America and the Iran deal. President Trump announced Friday that the U.S. would stay in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, even while he refused to certify under U.S. law that the deal is in the national interest. "Decertification," a bright, shiny object for many, obscures the real issue-whether the agreement should survive. Mr. Trump has "scotch'd the snake, not kill'd it." 

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL


The Trump administration will remain in the international nuclear deal with Iran for now, top national security aides said Sunday, a message of reassurance after allies, members of Congress and the Iranian regime criticized President Trump's decision to set conditions on further U.S. participation. Trump's national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, said that the president's threat to cancel the Iran deal "set out a marker" for the United States and its allies to fix what he called "a weak deal that is being weakly monitored."


US Ambassador to the United Nations on Sunday said the Trump administration hopes to remain in the nuclear deal with Iran but strengthen it so the "American people feel safer. I think right now you are going to see us stay in the deal," Haley said on NBC's "Meet The Press."


U.S. President Donald Trump angered Iran with his speech on refusing to re-certify the nuclear deal, but Tehran is unlikely to walk away from the agreement in retaliation. Brinksmanship aside, Iran needs to sell its oil on the international market as allowed by the atomic accord. And politically, Trump's speech helps the same hard-liners America's president says he wants to target, offering them a convenient punching bag as many Iranians took his words as a personal insult.


Donald Trump announced Friday that he won't "certify" his predecessor's nuclear deal with Iran, but he won't walk away from it either. This is something of a political fudge to satisfy a campaign promise, but it is also part of a larger and welcome strategic shift from Barack Obama's illusions about arms control and the Islamic Republic. Mr. Trump chose not to withdraw from the nuclear deal despite his ferocious criticism during the campaign and again on Friday.


On Friday, the Trump administration announced that it will not certify the nuclear deal that Barack Obama's government struck with Iran and other world powers. Critics claim the decision could isolate the United States from its allies, set Iran sprinting toward nuclear weapons, and increase the likelihood of military conflict. Supporters argue that the move is the best way to block Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Skeptics dismiss the act as mere political posturing-a way for Trump to appear to honor his campaign promises while kicking the can to Congress and ultimately sticking with the agreement.


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised President Trump's choice to decertify the Iran nuclear deal as "the right decision for the world." Netanyahu, the chief opponent of the Obama-era accord, said Trump's move Friday could bring allies to the table to improve the "bad" deal.


Iran, Russia and European leaders roundly condemned President Trump's decision on Friday to disavow the Iran nuclear deal, saying that it reflected the growing isolation of the United States, threatened to destabilize the Middle East and could make it harder to resolve the growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The reaction was far from panicked, as Mr. Trump's decision punts to Congress the critical decision of whether the United States will reimpose sanctions on Iran - a step that would effectively sink the deal.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS


The Treasury Department on Friday slapped sanctions on an elite Iranian military organization, part of its broader strategy to ramp up pressure on Tehran. The announcement came after President Donald Trump started a campaign to "fix" the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, telling Congress the agreement is no longer in the United States' interests.


President Donald Trump on Friday accused Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of supporting terrorism. But in what amounted to a pulled punch, he stopped short of formally branding the notorious military unit a terrorist group. "The Revolutionary Guard is the Iranian supreme leader's corrupt personal terror force and militia," Trump said in an address outlining his wider Iran strategy. "It has hijacked large portions of Iran's economy and seized massive religious endowments to fund war and terror abroad."

CONGRESS & IRAN

A pair of Republican senators unveiled a plan Friday to sanction Iran if the regime gets close to constructing a nuclear weapon, as part of a President Trump's broader effort to counter Iranian aggression. Under the proposal, Iran would face "automatic" economic sanctions if it builds up its nuclear program to the point of being within one year of having a bomb. The plan was developed by Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., one of the arch critics of the Iran deal. The one-year time frame is designed to ensure that Iran doesn't get so close to having a nuclear weapon that the United States can't take action to prevent it.


After Donald Trump placed the fate of the Iran nuclear deal in the hands of lawmakers Friday, Congress may use its position as arbiter to ratchet up pressure on Tehran. The question is whether they can do so without killing off the 2015 accord.


President Donald Trump announced Friday that he will decertify the Iran nuclear deal but will not urge Congress to immediately reimpose nuclear-related sanctions on the country, instead calling for new legislation that could trigger penalties down the line. He also unveiled other initiatives aimed at reining in the longtime U.S. nemesis, including plans for new sanctions on Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard military corps over allegations that it supports terrorism.


Republicans demanded a major say on the Iran nuclear agreement two years ago and never got it from Democrat Barack Obama. Now that President Donald Trump has directed Congress to make the international pact more stringent, the GOP is finding that having that voice won't be easy. Republicans will have to win over skeptical Democrats and key allies in Europe who are wary of altering the accord that they believe has prevented Iran from assembling an arsenal of atomic weapons in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Republican leaders also may face resistance from members of their own party.

BUSINESS RISK


Western firms have piled into Iran in the two years since world powers agreed to lift sanctions. Now, as President Donald Trump deals a blow to that deal, executives must decide whether to stay the course. Mr. Trump said Friday he won't recertify the 2015 international deal struck with Tehran, which lifted sanctions in exchange for promises by Iran to curtail its nuclear program. He also vowed to cancel the deal himself if Congress and U.S. allies don't act to address his concerns about the accord.


In the 21 months since a landmark nuclear agreement freed Iran's economy from crippling economic sanctions, investors eager to tap the country's energy reserves and its 80 million consumers have waited for signs it was safe to enter the market in full force.


President Donald Trump's decision to overhaul America's policy with Iran raises a lot of questions for companies that have been trying to make inroads to do business in Iran. The Trump administration on Friday laid out a new Iran strategy in an effort to "strengthen" the 2015 nuclear deal. The Iran deal lifted sanctions on the country in exchange for limits on Tehran's nuclear program. Its enactment in early 2016 reopened the country's stock and bond markets; its channels for exports like crude oil, pistachios and carpets; and the process for large companies to apply to do business there.


The Trump administration asked a Chicago federal court Thursday for a two-month deadline extension on its decision assessing whether revealing secret details of a $17 billion commercial aircraft deal between Iran and Boeing would interfere with US foreign policy by obstructing a key component of the Iranian nuclear deal. Filed just one day before President Donald Trump is expected to announce plans to decertify the Iran nuclear deal, the Department of Justice request aims to push Thursday's original court-ordered deadline to January.


President Donald Trump's decision not to re-impose sanctions against Iran is good news for Boeing and its European rival, Airbus, which can continue doing business with Iranian airlines that are desperate for new planes. Between them, Boeing and Airbus have announced deals with Iranian airlines that, if finalized, could cover nearly 300 planes worth $40 billion.

NORTH KOREA & IRAN


United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley said Sunday that President Trump's recent move on Iran "sends the perfect message to North Korea." "It sends the perfect message to North Korea, which is we're not going to engage in a bad deal. And should we ever get into a deal, we're going to hold you accountable," Haley told ABC's "This Week."

FOREIGN AFFAIRS


US President Donald Trump may be about to declare that Iran is no longer in compliance with the international nuclear agreement, but the country is on a roll across the Middle East. Iran has great influence in Iraq and Syria, strong relations with Russia and Turkey and its arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, is undergoing a difficult generational transition. Iran had dug deep into its pockets to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria long before sanctions were eased as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Militias trained and armed by Iran's Quds force have played a pivotal role in the fighting against rebel factions, especially around Aleppo. Weapons and cash have also flowed from Tehran to Damascus.

CYBERWARFARE


Iran carried out a cyber attack on British lawmakers earlier this year, The Times newspaper reported on Saturday, citing an intelligence assessment of the incident. The report came the day after Britain joined other European countries in warning the United States against harming a nuclear deal with Iran. Britain's parliament was hit by a "sustained and determined" cyber attack in June, designed to identify weak email passwords, just over a month after a ransomware worm crippled parts of the country's health service.  The Times said that the attack was Iran's first significant cyber attack on a British target after the hack was initially blamed on Russia... While the motive for the attack has not yet been established, the hackers were not seeking simple financial profit, The Times said.

IRAQ CRISIS


Iraqi forces said Monday they seized a military base, an oil field and other key infrastructure from Kurdish soldiers near the northern city of Kirkuk, as the two U.S. allies face off over territory and oil in the wake of the Kurdish region's independence vote last month... The flare-up presents an awkward dilemma for the United States. Washington has trained and equipped the advancing Iraqi troops and the Kurdish forces, known as peshmerga, on the other side. The Iraqi side is also backed up by Shiite militia forces close to Iran - at a time when the Trump administration has boost rhetoric about trying to curb Iranian influence in the region, including increasing sanctions on Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps last week. 


Iran on Sunday shut its border crossings with Iraq's Kurdistan in support of measures taken by the Iraqi government to isolate the Kurdish region, the Iraqi foreign ministry said. "At the request of the Iraqi government, the Islamic Republic of Iran closed today the border crossings with the Kurdistan region of Iraq,'' the Iraqi foreign ministry said in a statement in Baghdad.  Earlier in the day, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi had indirectly dismissed claims these crossings were shut. ''As far as I know, nothing new has happened in this area,'' the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) quoted him as saying.  


Iran's Foreign Ministry on Sunday denied reports that Tehran had closed a border crossing with northern Iraq in response to an independence referendum in Iraq's Kurdish region last month, the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) reported. "As we announced earlier, we blocked our airspace to the Kurdish region on a request from the central government of Iraq, and as far as I know, nothing new has happened in this area," ISNA quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi as saying.

GULF STATES & IRAN


Arab countries welcomed US president Donald Trump's speech to confront the "fanatical regime" of Iran, during which he threw a landmark international nuclear agreement into doubt. Meanwhile, leaders in western countries said they were "concerned by the possible implications" of Mr Trump's decision not to recertify Iran's compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to Congress.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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