Monday, October 2, 2017

Eye on Iran: Russia Giving Cover to Iran Could Doom Nuclear Deal As Trump Considers Whether to Certify


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As President Donald Trump considers whether to certify to Congress the controversial 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, word that the United Nations' nuclear watchdog can't verify a crucial part of the agreement could tip the scales with time running out by the middle of next month. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley indicated Thursday that Russia was shielding Iran by blocking the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from verifying part of the deal... under a requirement from Congress, Trump must choose whether to certify the deal by October 15.


The United States says it is adding Iran to the list of countries it accuses of failing to crack down on human trafficking and that it has increased restrictions against Russia, which was already on the list.


Afghan immigrant children as young as 14 are being recruited in Iran to fight - and die - in Syria, a prominent human rights organization said Sunday... Iran is home to many Afghans, who have traveled there to work or as refugees fleeing conflict in their country. Human rights groups have long expressed concern that vulnerable Afghan refugees are being pressured by the Iranian authorities to fight in Syria.

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Former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., said [President Trump not issuing another certification regarding the Iran nuclear deal] could also corral Iranian negotiators. "My own feeling is that it will take more than a threat of decertification to get the Iranians back to the table," Lieberman told the Washington Examiner on the day of Trump's UN speech. "My guess is, we're going to have to actually decertify."

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL


The main facilitators of the 2015 accord on Iran's nuclear program, slammed as the worst deal ever by U.S. President Donald Trump, could be among the top contenders for this year's Nobel Peace Prize, according to researchers who predict potential winners. Federica Mogherini, the European Union's foreign affairs chief, and Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, are the best candidates because they convened the process that ended with the easing of sanctions against Tehran in return for nuclear restrictions...


Iran's foreign minister has said he assumes that the US will abandon the international deal restricting his country's nuclear activities. But Mohammad Javad Zarif said he hoped Europe would keep the agreement alive.


Iranian diplomats say they expect President Donald Trump to abandon the international deal restricting Tehran's nuclear activities. They are intensifying their lobbying of European governments, especially the signatories to the agreement, France, Britain and Germany, hoping they can dissuade the U.S. administration from repudiating the agreement.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS


Heightened tensions between the US and Iran has raised concerns that Tehran could organise Houthi attacks on merchant ships passing through strategic trading routes in the Gulf. "There will be concern over the potential of Iran being in a position to threaten maritime traffic through the Bab el Mandeb," said Jon Lee, an analyst at Dorian Risk Consulting. "Tensions between Iran and the US in the Straits of Hormuz are likely to increase. By extension, those tensions are also a concern for Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and western nations who rely on the region for energy supplies. Iran could in the near future use the Houthi as surrogates to threaten the Bab el Mandeb as well, giving Tehran the ability to control or influence maritime traffic through two of the most important chokepoints in the world," said Mr Lee.


Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke called Iran a grave threat on Friday, saying the administration's energy dominance plan will help address the Mideast power's development of nuclear missiles economically by cutting the country's oil profits. "I'm concerned about Iran. I'm concerned about their development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear capability," Zinke said at the Heritage Foundation. "And Iran is a grave threat. And it is better to have options to address Iran economically and not just militarily," he said.

SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT


If the US reimposes sanctions on Iran's oil sector without the support of Europe, China and Russia, it will see grudging and uneven compliance by international energy companies and will not be able to stop crude flows that returned to the market in 2015, according to sanctions expert Elizabeth Rosenberg.
SANCTIONS RELIEF


The planes can carry 70 passengers and would be used in flights over a maximum distance of 1,528 kilometers. Iran Air took delivery of the first four ATR aircraft in May, with the rest due to be handed over to the country by the end of 2018, including a further three this year. Iran Air's deal with ATR that was signed in early 2017 includes options for a further 20 aircraft and a training program for Iranian pilots and engineers.


Iran Air is to launch a new subsidiary airline to regional countries under the title "IranAir Regional", said the company's chief executive officer. According to Farzaneh Sharafbafi, Iran's flag-carrier is to launch the service to neighboring countries using the recently delivered ATR 72-600 aircrafts, Iranair.com reported. Earlier in September, Sharafbafi had said the flag carrier had plans to use its ATR fleet in Ardebil-Baku and Ardebil-Van flights in near future.


A commercial delegation from the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture to Geneva, Switzerland, has met with the Central European nation's parliamentary officials among many others, who heralded a better future for Iranian-Swiss banking ties. "Our two biggest banks are facing challenges in working with Iran because of the stance taken by the US, but our smaller banks are ready to have a presence in Iran," an unnamed member of the Swiss Parliament was quoted as saying by the official news portal of TCCIM.

RUSSIA AND IRAN


The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations on September 28 said Russia is trying to "shield Iran" from inspections by the UN's nuclear watchdog of some activities that could contribute to developing a nuclear bomb. Nikki Haley has been pushing to increase and broaden the inspections conducted by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is charged with monitoring compliance with restrictions on nuclear activities that Tehran agreed to in exchange for sanctions relief under the 2015 nuclear deal.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS


Facing potentially debilitating oil sanctions from the Trump administration, the Caracas government is searching desperately for new ways to get its most valuable commodity - oil - to awaiting buyers. Enter Iran and Syria. The Venezuelan government is working with Iran and Syria to start construction this year on a new refinery in Syria that will process up to 140,000 barrels of oil per day, according to an announcement by Iran's Research Institute of the Petroleum Industry.


Dozens of Afghan forces are said to have been killed in repeated insurgent attacks over the past week in western Farah province, which borders Iran. Politicians and residents in the province have told local media that Taliban insurgents also have captured several security outposts in and around the Bala Buluk district. While officials have not yet discussed battlefield details, a provincial police spokesman told Ariana News channel Afghan forces, backed by airpower, have killed more than 30 Taliban assailants and destroyed a number of their military vehicles in ongoing counteroffensives.


Iran's foreign minister [Mohammad Javid Zarif] has arrived in Oman for a daylong visit with officials in the sultanate, which has served as a crucial link between Iran and the U.S. in the past... Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency reported that Zarif will speak with Omani officials about the wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and other issues. Zarif is due to travel to Qatar on Tuesday. His visit to the peninsular nation comes as four Arab nations are boycotting Qatar over its alleged support for extremists and what they say are Qatar's overly warm ties to Iran. Qatar denies supporting extremists.

IRAQ CRISIS


As the United States continues its battle against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, some analysts believe Iran has turned its attention to captured ISIS fighters, recruiting them unwittingly to join militias that target U.S. interests in the region and to instigate growing sectarian violence as the regime continues to influence Iraq's military, political and economic affairs.


Iran has banned the transportation of refined crude oil products by Iranian companies to and from Iraq's Kurdistan region, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said on Friday, after Tehran vowed to stand by Baghdad following the region's vote for independence.


Iranian and Iraqi central government forces are to hold joint military exercises near their borders, Iran's state television reported on Saturday, as part of Tehran's effort to support Baghdad after the Kurdish independence referendum. State television quoted a military spokesman as saying the decision to hold the war games was taken at a meeting of Iranian military commanders which also "agreed on measures to establish border security and receive Iraqi forces that are to be stationed at border posts".

OPINION & ANALYSIS  


The U.S. must articulate a coherent and comprehensive strategy to contain Iranian expansion within Syria. Such a strategy must be backed by credible deterrence to ensure that hard-won gains of former ISIS territory not fall into the hands of the Assad-Russia-Iran-Hezbollah axis. It should also seek to bolster the capacity of the Arab and Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to hold territory. Finally, the U.S. should consider designating the entirety of the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, and in particular should target IRGC entities engaged in war profiteering in Syria as a means of staunching the IRGC's attempted takeover of Syria.


Iranian diplomats can reassure with calm words, but in the Islamic Republic it's the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who call the shots and direct policy. And yes, that goes for nuclear policy as well. That is why it is so important that the International Atomic Energy Agency, if it is to retain any credibility, not shy away from inspecting Iranian military sites where weapons design and warhead work might be ongoing.


I have no idea what the president will do - he is far too erratic to be predictable - but I can offer my own viewpoint as someone who opposed the Iran deal because I thought it was too lenient. The deal did not end Iran's nuclear program but merely suspended it for a decade, and it did not address Iran's other regional threats, namely its sponsorship of terrorism and development of ballistic missiles. And yet I would not recommend pulling out of the deal now - not when the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose inspectors monitor 27 separate sites, has certified that Iran is in compliance. Instead of nuking the nuclear deal, the United States should take other steps to check the growth of Iranian influence. Instead of nuking the nuclear deal, the United States should take other steps to check the growth of Iranian influence.


Iran's Navy Commander Habibollah Sayyari said today that the country's naval forces will unveil its new domestically-built naval assets this year and will also extend their area and scope of operations beyond the Persian Gulf region. 


The deputy chief commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards (I.R.G.C.), Brigadier General Hossein Salami, said on Thursday that the Trump administration will not be able to seek 


A senior Iraqi delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to coordinate "joint military efforts" between the two countries. According to the Iranian media reported, Lieutenant General Othman al-Ghanmi, the chief of staff of Iraqi Armed Forces, and his Iranian counterpart Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed two key issues: joint counterterrorism measures along the two countries' common frontier and how to respond to the Iraqi Kurdistan's push for independence.


A spokesman of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) has said that the paramilitary forces will "not rush to a civil war sought by" Iraqi Kurdistan's President Masoud Barzani, but cautioned that P.M.F. forces will not "allow the separatists to take the Kurds from their Iraqi brothers."  In an interview with Lebanese al-Mayadeen news outlet, Ahmad al-Assadi stressed that the Baghdad government and P.M.F. forces should take all necessary measures to recapture Kirkuk Province, which has been under the control of Kurdish Peshmerga forces since the emergence of the Islamic State in 2014. Assadi particularly emphasized on seizing regions in Kirkuk where most of the oil fields are located. The P.M.F. spokesman further noted that the paramilitary forces are present near Kirkuk to assist the Hawija offensive and are ready to carry out any mission ordered by the Baghdad government.


Christian believers inside Iran - and especially converts from Islam - face their own troublesome news reports. Accounts of human rights abuses under Iran's radical mullahs persist. Since 1999, Iran has been declared a "Country of Particular Concern" by the United States State Department. "During the past year [2016], the government of Iran engaged in systematic, ongoing, and egregious violations of religious freedom, including prolonged detention, torture, and executions based primarily or entirely upon the religion of the accused..."


"We are the obstacle hindering the Iranian project in the region," as one informed Kurdish source put it. "The Kurdish leaders have refused to allow Kurdish areas to be corridors for Iranian weapons shipments to Syria." This is why the US position was shocking to the Kurds, as it effectively endorsed Iran's projects in Iraq. "They proved their loyalty to their biggest ally, Iran, despite their claims that it is a threat to their friends and that it is a sponsor of terror." The Kurds are apprehensive that Iraq will be dominated by Iran, and they feel marginalized and excluded. They perceive the US, Turkish, Iranian, and Iraqi reactions to their vote as unfair and unjust. 






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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