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Donald Trump's national security team has unanimously
recommended that he decertify the Iran nuclear deal - but that he
stop short of pushing Congress to reimpose sanctions on Tehran that
could unravel the agreement. Trump's team plans to work with Congress
and European allies to apply new pressure on the Iranian regime,
according to a strategy developed in an Iran policy review led by
national security adviser H.R. McMaster. But the strategy assumes the
nuclear deal will remain intact for now. The deliberations ahead of
an Oct. 15 deadline to certify Iran's compliance with the deal, a
centerpiece of President Barack Obama's foreign policy agenda, were
described by a half-dozen sources inside and outside the
administration who have participated in the internal debate.
The future of the Iran nuclear deal may hinge on a
face-saving fix for President Donald Trump so he doesn't have to
recertify the Islamic republic's compliance every 90 days, according
to U.S. officials. Several officials familiar with internal
discussions say the periodic reviews mandated by Congress have become
such a source of embarrassment for Trump that his national security
aides are trying to find ways for him to stop signing off on the
seven-nation accord without scuttling it entirely. The president has
called the agreement one of America's "worst and most one-sided
transactions" ever. Officials say what Trump hates most, however,
is a provision in a 2015 U.S. law - known as the Iran Nuclear
Agreement Review Act - that requires him to tell Congress every three
months if Iran is meeting promises to scale back its nuclear program
in exchange for broad international relief from oil, trade and
financial sanctions.
Days before President Trump has to make a critical
decision on whether to hold up the Iran nuclear deal, Defense
Secretary Jim Mattis openly split with him on abandoning the
agreement, the second senior member of the president's national
security team to recently contradict him. Mr. Mattis told senators on
Tuesday that it was in America's interest to stick with the deal,
which Mr. Trump has often dismissed as a "disaster."
"Absent indications to the contrary, it is something that the president
should consider staying with," Mr. Mattis told members of the
Senate Armed Services Committee after being repeatedly pressed on the
issue.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
A key U.S. senator long opposed to the 2015 nuclear
agreement with Iran offered a path for President Donald Trump to
distance himself from the accord without immediately quitting it,
imposing new sanctions or carrying out military action. Arkansas
Republican Tom Cotton, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said
Trump should "decertify" Iran's compliance with the
agreement in a report required by Congress every 90 days and next due
on Oct. 15. That, Cotton said, would let Congress approve a list of
demands that the president could then press European allies who are
part of the accord -- and reluctant to leave it -- to accept.
"The Congress and president should lay out how the deal should
change and the consequences for Iran," Cotton said Tuesday
evening in Washington at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.
"The world needs to know we are serious, we are willing to walk
away, we are willing to impose sanctions and a lot more than that.
And they'll know that when the president declines to certify the
deal, and not before."
As President Donald Trump considers whether to withdraw
from the Iran nuclear deal, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is
working behind the scenes with Congress to head off the possibility
of an international crisis ahead of the agreement's looming October
15 certification deadline, several US officials and Western diplomats
told CNN. Tillerson and congressional lawmakers are spearheading
efforts to amend US legislation regarding Iran to shift focus away
from the nuclear issue -- a move that could allow the US to stay in
the multilateral nuclear deal forged in 2015 and also push back
against Iran's other destabilizing behavior, officials and diplomats
said. "Tillerson has said the problem with the JCPOA is
not the JCPOA," one senior administration official said, using
the acronym for the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action.
President Donald Trump has railed against a deal to curb
Iran's nuclear program, but officials say that far from scrapping it,
he is considering kicking the decision to Congress. Ahead of an
October 15 deadline, several officials familiar with White House
deliberations told AFP Trump has made it clear he does not want to
certify Iran's compliance with the accord. The 2015-era Obama
agreement offered Tehran relief from punitive economic sanctions, in
return for limits to uranium enrichment and intrusive inspections.
Every 90 days Trump must decide whether the Iran is living up to its
end of the bargain, something that has already caused him political
pain on two occasions. The Trump administration has publicly accused
Iran of violating the "spirit" of the accord -- known as
the JCPOA -- although some officials privately admit there is a thin
line between testing the limits and a material breach. Trump's top
military advisor, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General
James Dunford, has told Congress the briefings he has received
"indicate that Iran is adhering to its JCPOA obligations."
Sen. Tom Cotton (R., Ark.) on Tuesday said President
Donald Trump should deny certification of the Iran nuclear accord
when it comes up for renewal later this month, regardless of whether
or not Tehran is in technical compliance, given its failure to
prevent a nuclear Iran. "Even if they were complying with
it-even if it was fully verifiable they were complying with it, which
it's not and which they aren't, it is still not in our viable
national security interests because it does not block Iran's path to
a bomb," Cotton said in an evening address before the Council on
Foreign Relations.
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
European governments fear a concerted effort to persuade
Donald Trump to continue to certify the Iran nuclear deal may have
failed and are now looking for other ways to try to salvage the two
year-old agreement. European lobbying efforts are now focused on
Congress which will have two months to decide - in the absence of
Trump's endorsement of the 2015 deal - whether to reimpose
nuclear-related sanctions. Fresh sanctions could in turn trigger
Iranian withdrawal and a ramping up of its now mostly latent nuclear
programme, taking the Middle East back to the brink of another major
conflict. When Trump threatened to withhold certification by a
congressional deadline of 15 October, the UN general assembly in
mid-September was seen by the European signatories of the agreement -
the UK, France and Germany - as the last best chance to convince
Trump of the dangers of destroying it.
BUSINESS RISK
Uncertainty over what US President Donald Trump will do
with the Iran nuclear deal hung over a conference here on Europe-Iran
business that showcased both progress as well as continuing internal
Iranian obstacles to foreign trade and investment. European diplomats
have put forward a tough and united front against any US reimposition
of nuclear-related sanctions at a time when the International Atomic
Energy Agency has repeatedly confirmed Iranian compliance with the
2015 agreement. But European executives appear less confident about
their ability to shield Iran deals from a potential resumption of US
penalties if Trump decides not to certify that Iran remains in
compliance with the deal later this month.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Total has indicated that it plans to
use the same solutions it employs for doing business in Russia under
US sanctions, for a key gas project in Iran in case Washington
reimposes sanctions against the country. Total Chief Executive
Officer Patrick Pouyanné told The Financial Times that
his company had successfully used an alternative basket of foreign
currencies in providing funds for the development of a key gas
project in Russia which faces US financial restrictions.
He said the solution for providing funds for the development
of the second phase of Arctic natural gas liquefaction project
involved using currencies like the euro and China's yuan instead of
the US dollar. "The impact was that we cannot use dollars,
so we have been obliged to put in place a gigantic project financing,
$19 billion, with Chinese banks," he said about Arctic 1.
"Thanks to the US sanctions we discovered the world of Chinese
finance. It is possible, and it is legal."
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh
said on Wednesday it is his understanding that all OPEC members want
to do everything necessary to stabilise oil markets. Asked by
reporters in Moscow whether an oil production-cutting deal should be
extended beyond March, he said: "We have not discussed with each
other in this regard. But it seems that all the OPEC members believe
that to make stability on the market ... it's my sense that all are
ready to do everything needed for this situation."
Iran's oil minister said on Wednesday
he saw no objection within OPEC to extending or even deepening an
OPEC-led deal to cut oil output get rid of a supply glut. The deal by
the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC
producers including Russia to cut supply by about 1.8 million barrels
per day runs until March 2018. "It depends on collective
decision and consensus within OPEC, but I think there is no objection
against this proposal," Iran's Bijan Zanganeh told Reuters,
asked whether there were talks to deepen the cut or extend it. Asked
to specify if he meant no objection to deeper cuts, he replied:
"Yes. I'm discussing."
IRAQ CRISIS
Iran devoted enormous energy to try to prevent Iraqi
Kurds from holding their Sept. 25 independence referendum, accusing
the Kurdish leadership of recklessness and endangering the stability
of the region. Having failed in that endeavor, officials in Tehran
are now at a loss as to what punitive measures they can realistically
take to punish the Kurds without causing further instability on their
doorstep. As the pressure mounts on Iraqi Kurds following the
plebiscite in which nearly 93% of voters cast ballots in favor of
seceding from Iraq, Iran as a historical ally of the Iraqi Kurds
appears to be hesitant to take extreme measures against its western
neighbor, fearing further instability that could easily spill over
into Iran's own Kurdish areas. Nonetheless, Tehran has taken some
half measures against the Iraqi Kurds, seemingly mainly for domestic
consumption.
Iran's state TV is reporting the Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan is visiting Iran as Tehran and Ankara weigh how to
respond to the Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq. Erdogan
arrived in Tehran on Wednesday and was greeted at the Mehrabad
airport by Mohammad Shariatadari, minister of industry and mining.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will welcome him officially at the
Sadabad complex later in the day. Iran and Turkey are among many
countries that opposed the Kurdish referendum in Iraq. Turkey already
has several thousand ground forces stationed in northern Syria and
Erdogan has stated he will not accept a Kurdish state along his
borders. Ahead of the vote in Iraq, Iran's army and powerful
Revolutionary Guard launched a military exercise in Iran's
northwestern Kurdish region.
GULF STATES & IRAN
Iran's foreign minister held talks with the emir of
Qatar Tuesday aimed at strengthening "co-operation," nearly
four months into a Saudi-led blockade against the Gulf emirate.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and Iran's Mohammad Javad Zarif met
at a time of heightened Gulf tensions, with Qatari officials warning
the ongoing Arab blockade would only drive Doha towards regional
powerhouse Iran. Qatar's state news agency said the pair discussed
the impasse in the region, which has seen Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut ties with Doha over its ties
with Iran and accusations that it supports extremists.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iranian authorities sentenced a member of the country's
nuclear negotiating team to five years in jail, Tasnim news agency
reported on Wednesday. The agency did not name a source for the
information and gave no further details. Reports last year in
Iranian media said a nuclear negotiator with dual nationality was
arrested after being accused of providing sensitive economic
information to Iran's enemies.
The recurring debate in Iran over reviving the position
of prime minister has been resumed. This time, however, the
discussion appears to be taking a somewhat more serious turn, with a
number of parliamentarians preparing to obtain the backing of Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to proceed from talk to action. For a
decade after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran had a parliamentary
political system. Mehdi Bazargan served as the country's first
post-revolutionary prime minister, before his government resigned
following Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's endorsement of the US Embassy
takeover in November 1979. The last prime minister was Mir Hossein
Mousavi, who held the office from 1981 to 1989, concurrent with much
of the Iran-Iraq War. Mousavi is currently under house arrest
stemming from protests against the disputed 2009 presidential
elections.
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