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TOP STORIES
[D]oing business in Iran, even for those Western
companies that continue to operate there legally, has become much
more difficult as fresh sanctions have closed off critical finance
channels.
Iran's oil exports have fallen sharply since U.S.
President Donald Trump said at mid-year he would reimpose sanctions
on Tehran, but with waivers in hand the Islamic Republic's major
buyers are already planning to scale up orders again.
A Chinese state firm on Wednesday ruled out selling
passenger planes to Iran to help the Islamic Republic revive fleet
renewal plans, while a Russian executive suggested Moscow would be
wary of putting its own programs at risk of U.S. retaliation.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The European Union's bizarre insistence on seeking to
resuscitate the corpse of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) reveals more
about the EU mindset than about the merits of the agreement itself.
Daniel Roth, director of research at United Against
Nuclear Iran, says Iran "does make key policy changes when
backed into a corner."
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
The United States is warning other countries not to
allow Iranian oil tankers into their ports, saying the tankers not
only could incur penalties under U.S. sanctions but may be courting
"environmental disaster."
President Donald Trump said the "fragile"
global oil market was a key reason his administration decided to
extend waivers this week to eight countries allowing them to continue
importing Iranian oil in violation of new U.S. sanctions.
The United States is determined to push Iranian oil
exports to zero, U.S. Special Representative Brian Hook said on
Wednesday, through a 'calibrated' approach using maximum economic
pressure without lifting oil prices.
South Korea says it has reached a deal with Iran to use
local currencies in mutual trade between the two countries instead of
the US dollar. According to Yonhap News Agency, the two countries
"will restart the won-based settlement of bilateral trade
transactions" using the accounts of the Central Bank of Iran at
two South Korean banks: Woori Bank and the Industrial Bank of Korea.
An early winner from the latest round of Iranian
sanctions is emerging: Russia. The U.S. began enforcing a tough new
slate of economic restrictions against Iran on Monday, including a
threat to sanction buyers of Iranian crude. That has refineries in
Europe and Asia-recent, big buyers of Iran oil-looking for
alternative supplies. Russian oil companies have stepped in, stealing
customers from Iran.
Italian bank UniCredit said Thursday that one-off
provisions to cover any settlement for alleged U.S. sanctions
violations in Iran and a write-down on its Turkish unit dropped
third-quarter profits by 99 percent.
Iran can flourish under sanctions and will defeat the
United States in the economic war it has launched, the deputy head of
the Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday.
The United States on Monday re-imposed sanctions against
Iran's oil exports to punish Tehran for its involvement in several
Middle Eastern conflicts. Washington had been pushing governments to
cut imports of Iranian oil to zero. but fearing a crude oil price
spike, it granted Iran's biggest buyers - China, India, South Korea,
Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan and Turkey - sanctions waivers.
Officials in Afghanistan have hailed a U.S. decision to
exempt from anti-Iran sanctions the development of the Iranian port
of Chabahar in recognition of its role to grow the Afghan
economy.
Saudi Arabia and Russia need to cut oil output, a top
Iranian official said on Wednesday, adding that extra supply from the
two countries had caused a slide in prices and benefited U.S.
President Donald Trump.
Iran's oil minister on Thursday predicted a painful time
ahead for international oil customers as U.S. sanctions take hold,
saying waivers that Washington granted to eight major oil-importing
countries are not enough for market demands.
The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 50 Iranian banks
as well as their foreign and domestic subsidiaries on Monday as part
of "its largest ever single-day action" targeting the
Islamic Republic... While an important first step, these designations
may not be sufficient to prevent the Islamic Republic from exploiting
the global financial system.
There is a growing consensus among analysts that Tehran
will likely attempt to wait out the Trump administration and refrain
from breaching the nuclear deal. Should Tehran hunker down and play
for time, the Trump administration will need to find creative ways to
tighten the sanctions belt such that time will cost the regime money,
and lots of it.
By exploiting China's diffidence and Europe's
differences, they are designed to undermine a united opposition to
U.S. sanctions.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Minister Louis Farrakhan, the leader of the Nation of
Islam, is warning President Donald Trump not to pull "the
trigger of war in the Middle East at the insistence of Israel."
His remarks came during a visit to Iran where Farrakhan spoke to
journalists in Tehran on Thursday.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Authorities in Iran's capital have arrested a journalist
who wrote about government corruption, in the latest of a series of
Iranian journalist detentions that have drawn international
concern.
FIFA secretary general Fatma Samoura will meet women
campaigning to be allowed into Saturday's Asian Champions League
final in Iran where they are legally barred from stadiums.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
The United States is warning other countries not to
allow Iranian oil tankers into their territorial waters or ports,
saying such access may run afoul of U.S. sanctions and not only incur
penalties, but also result in catastrophic economic and environmental
damage should an accident occur.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Iranian forces in Syria may present a threat to the US
and in Iraq the Iranian threat is increasing, according to a new
report from the US Department of Defense.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Democrats were infuriated by Trump's withdrawal from the
international nuclear deal with Iran that Democratic President Barack
Obama's administration reached in 2015. But there is little they can
do to change the policy as long as Republicans occupy the White House
If history is any guide, the Republican defeat in the
House of Representatives might instead prove detrimental to the
health of the "Islamic Republic"... Like Obama, Trump will
increasingly feel the Democratic squeeze on his domestic interests.
And like Obama, in order to compensate for internal paralysis, Trump
will refocus his attention on foreign affairs, especially Iran.
Sanctions on Tehran already have kicked back in this week, and it is
likely the president will up the ante.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Washington will focus on pressuring Iran financially and
contesting its activities in Syria, Iraq and Yemen where the Persian
nation enjoys broad influence, the U.S. envoy to Syria said
Wednesday, adding that Tehran should eventually withdraw all
Iran-commanded forces from Syria.
The United States said on Wednesday it hoped Russia
would continue to allow Israel to strike Iranian targets in Syria,
despite Moscow's supply of the S-300 air defense system to the Syrian
government.
A delegation of senior Tehran representatives close to
the Iranian Supreme Leader visited Syria's southwestern province,
Daraa. Their trip was carried out under the banner of reconstruction
and empowerment of locals.
The Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim group Hezbollah will not
give way in a dispute over Sunni Muslim representation in a new unity
government, the pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper reported on
Wednesday, signaling no quick end to the standoff.
A demand by so-called "independent" Sunni MPs
for representation in the new Cabinet is impossible to meet and is
intended to obstruct the formation, the Future Movement's
parliamentary bloc said Tuesday, in a strong rebuff to Hezbollah's
support for this demand.
The leader of Ansar Allah has left Lebanon's Mieh Mieh
Palestinian refugee camp for Syria as part of a deal with the Fatah
Movement, following violent clashes between the groups in the camp
last month, Palestinian security sources said Wednesday.
Lebanon's religious authorities have joined efforts to
solve the government formation crisis.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Americans should welcome Egyptian President Abdel Fattah
el-Sisi's pledge to support the Sunni Arab kingdoms against regional
instability. His pledge will help deter Iran from violent escalation.
MISCELLANEOUS
The men were detained at the Bulgarian border as they
attempted to enter the Kapitan Andreevo crossing from Turkey - a
major transit point for entering Europe, the report said... This is
not the first time Iranian citizens have been caught using fake
Israeli passports.
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