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An Election Countdown in Israel - Analysis

Posted: 08 Feb 2009 06:31 PM PST

As rockets fall on Ashkelon and the children of Sderot run for
their shelters, the Kadima-Labor cabinet approved a new 650 million

NIS Prime Minister's residence for Ehud Olmert to entertain his foreign

backers in.

Still Kadima's margin with Likud is narrowing, despite the
failed war in Gaza. And while the violins play, Livni is quietly

negotiating a deal with Hamas that is meant to bring

Gilad Shalit home for a very public boost to her image, while
undermining what little Israel had gained from the military campaign.

Kadima's incredible corruption and legacy of failure has not prevented it

from polling as the number 2 party. Not even the 650 Million House that Olmert
Built appears to be stopping Kadima.

The current polls, as flawed as they may be, suggest that too few Israelis have

learned anything from the past election. Kadima, whose sole accomplishment

was the ethnic cleansing of the Jews of Gaza, followed by Hamas' victory,
remains a viable party. Even though Kadima MK's openly mocked the idea that

Hamas would begin firing rockets into Israel, there are apparently no shortage of

voters willing to cast their ballots for them, some without financial incentives.
The obvious Kadima base remains the Arab sector, and the left wing, which has all
but abandoned traditional progressive parties such as Meretz, because Kadima can
deliver the kind of self-destructive policies that Meretz and the Arab parties
cannot.

The Likud under Netanyahu is still likely to win, but Netanyahu continues his

trend of rubbing everyone the wrong way, and taking refuge from taking a stand

against anything, except giving up the Golan and Olmert's mansion. As

usual Netanyahu's only real draw is that he's the only non-left wing candidate

who can become Prime Minister. And as usual that isn't really enough.

The genuinely sad part is that Netanyahu has stood for Likud in election after

election because there just isn't anyone better. Netanyahu is a capable

candidate, but the eloquence that English speaking viewers associate

with him, never quite works in Hebrew. He's always running for

President in a country that's used to Prime Minister, and suspicious

of the arrogance and elitism he can't help projecting.

Lacking either the

gregariousness of the

labor socialists, or the

natural humility of a Begin,

Netanyahu finds himself

out of step with Israeli
culture, and unwilling to

distinguish himself by

taking a genuinely

controversial stand

that he can't immediately

take back.

Netanyahu might be the best thing for Israel, if only his spine was half

as good as his brain. But time and time again, he has failed to connect

at a gut level with Israelis, instead following foreign political consultants,

and trying to hold an imaginary center.

That has been his undoing before, and it may well be his undoing this
time around as well.

Yisrael Beiteinu meanwhile is set to win big, passing Labor, for as much as 18

Knesset seats. There's no doubt that much of this boost has come because

Avigdor Lieberman talks a good game on terrorism with lots of aggressive

rhetoric. Unfortunately talk is all he's good for. Lieberman continues to

support carving up Israel to make way for a Palestinian Arab state.

Yisrael Beiteinu was part of a coalition government that was responsible for

this mess. There is no doubt that if Kadima win, Lieberman and Yisrael

Beiteinu will be right back in a coalition government dedicated to perpetuating

the very same disasters of the last few years.

Shas, despite everything, is only set to lose one seat. Clearly
Shas' voters are not prepared to abandon Ovadya's rotting raft,

no matter what he or his degraded party does, under the impression

that the filthy mouthed troll who runs it can somehow get them into

heaven, as if he could get himself into heaven with a battering ram and

a quarter ton of dynamite.

Particularly obscene are both Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu's attempts at

playing for the Religious Zionist vote, with an Anti-Zionist vs an

Anti-Religious party, both abiding by no principle except

boundless greed, competing to see who they can fool into

voting for them this time around.

As immigrant parties devoid of any principle but
the basest greed, while pandering to their own captive audiences

with "We're Standing up to the Man" rhetoric, Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu

are grim reflections of each other. Avigdor Lieberman and Ovadya Yosef too

are ugly mirror images, their outraged rhetoric concealing an open

contempt for their gullible followers.

With them plus Bayit Yehudi, Kadima can let the Israeli public

vent its frustrations by casting putatively right wing votes,

only to find that the parties they wasted their votes on will

still be part of a Kadima led coalition.

If Lieberman and Ovadya and Bayit Yehudi can pull enough

votes away from Likud, Olmert and Livni are back in

business and running Israel again. That is the nightmare

scenario.

With Ichud Leumi polling too low to make any serious

difference in the Knesset, there really is no choice
but to hold your nose and vote Likud again, and hope
that's enough to stop both the left wing and the phony
right wing parties.

Shas' notorious

willingness to

prostitute itself,

so long as the

money keeps

coming in, means

that it can be a

player in virtually

any government

put together by

any of the major parties. Much the same goes for

Yisrael Beiteinu, as well as any of the non-Zionist religious parties.

Labor is set to achieve a new low by becoming a fourth ranked party

behind Yisrael Beiteinu.

While this demonstrates the growing power of Russian immigrants,

it also highlights the growing control Russia wields over Israel's

domestic policy, as well as the tension between religious
and secular voters that makes any broad right wing coalition
that much harder to maintain.

The Likud continues to be crippled by an inability to reinvent itself,

which Netanyahu's eternal candidacies make all too obvious.
A shinier logo and a website design borrowed from Obama will
not achieve that goal. Likud's real problem is that it doesn't
stand for much of anything, except a middle of the road
approach, something that impresses Americans more than it does
Israelis, or anyone in the Middle East.

Ever since Rabin ate a bullet while ambling toward his limo, or at some

uncertain time on the ride there, the Likud lost what was left
of its guts, and has worked hard to assure everyone that it isn't extremist
at all.

Briefly Sharon turned that around, vigorously smacking
around Yasir Arafat, only to fall prey to his own moral corruption
and medical problems, but not before trashing both Likud and
Labor.

Since then Likud has been playing Banquo, emerging as the
Ghost at the Feast, to haunt everyone by reminding them of
its achievements in overthrowing socialist rule, and driving
Israel toward a free market economy and an aggressive posture
toward terrorism. Unfortunately Israelis have no historical memory
and no one is paying attention to the Likud anymore.

Talking to teenagers who know their hip hop a lot better than they do

their Trumpledor about the ideas behind the Likud is a virtual dead

end, and isn't being done anyway. While the right wing squabbles

among itself, the left wing headed by Olmert have been gorging

themselves on Israel's carcass. The rest of the party system is

more splintered than ever, with many players all too willing to

play on ethnic and gender dissatisfactions, without actually

delivering anything. The pot simmers and boils, and despite

the terrible danger Israel is in, Kadima is within sight of

another victory.