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 Iraqis celebrated the |
They left under a Status of
Forces Agreement reached in November 2008 stipulating their
"withdrawal from cities, towns and villages" by June 30, 2009. In
addition, by December 31, 2011, "All U.S. forces are to withdraw from all
Iraqi territory, water and airspace." The SOFA also grants Baghdad control
over American military operations and it defines the U.S. role in such
areas as Iraq's economy and education.
Some urban U.S. fortifications were
turned over to Iraqis, others razed. As Capt. Andrew Roher
put it, while standing on a commercial street in central Baghdad, watching
his small base being obliterated, "Leave no trace is the goal." American
troops have moved to tent and plywood "installations" (don't call them
"bases") outside the cities.
These changes signify, in short,
that the Iraqis, despite six-plus years of U.S.-led occupation and their
still requiring
substantial U.S. support, are more-or-less finally running
their own country.
For me, the American move to the
countryside comes six years too late. Already in a 2003 article, "Let Iraqis run
Iraq," I advised: "Turn power over to the Iraqis. Let them form a
government. … Take coalition forces off their patrols of city streets and
away from protecting buildings, and put them in desert bases."
Washington's long delay has cost
Americans heavily, starting with thousands dead and hundreds of billions
of dollars, then going on to poisoning American politics. Tying American
interests to the welfare of urban Iraqis shattered the post-9/11 "united
we stand" solidarity and replaced it with the country's most fractious and
vicious debate since the Vietnam War.
Worse, occupying Iraqi cities has a
yet-incalculable but frightening long-term impact. More than any other
factor, taking responsibility for Iraqi cities discredited George W. Bush
and built the groundswell of support that swept the furthest left-wing
politician ever to the presidency. Barack Obama's first half-year in
office suggests that he aspires to make fundamental changes in the relationship
of state and society; in this sense, Americans for many decades will
likely pay for mistakes made in Iraq.
And what about the impact of the
occupation on Iraqis? As Ernesto Londoño of the Washington Post
notes, two
questions haunted U.S. troops as they prepared for the June 30
pullout: How will Iraqi forces behave after they leave? Will the American
lives and treasury spent to prop up and legitimize the Iraqi government
prove to have been a good investment?
I am pessimistic, seeing Iraq as a
historically violent country yet emerging from the Stalinist nightmare
of Saddam Hussein, a place replete with corruption,
tension, hatred, and desire for revenge. Having American troops around for
six years temporarily contained the pressures but will barely ameliorate
the country's fate.
Many Iraqis
agree. "When the Americans leave, everything will be looted because no
one will be watching," says an Iraqi army lieutenant. "There will be a
civil war—without a doubt," predicts an interpreter. No one pays attention
to the bouncy
messages of hope and reconciliation forwarded in Iraq with U.S.
taxpayer monies. "Iraq is like a baby right now. It needs people to look
after it," said the chairman
of a local security council. A Shi'ite legislator, Qassim
Daoud, openly calls for American troops to remain until 2020 or
2025
But the troops are inexorably
leaving and, I predict, the massive American effort will rapidly dissolve,
fail, and be forgotten. Iraqis will deal poorly with such problems as terrorism,
Sunni-Shiite tensions, Kurdish autonomy, Islamist ambitions, disappearing
Christians, a fragile Mosul
Dam, and an obsolete oil
and gas infrastructure. Civil
war remains a live prospect as sectarian
fighting returns. Current evidence indicates that Iraqis cannot even
maintain their billions of dollars worth of U.S.-donated military
equipment.
As an American, I say good luck to
Iraq but good riddance to U.S. control of its cities, goodbye to oversight
of the economy and schools, farewell to worrying about inter-tribal
relations and the Mosul Dam, and adieu to responsibility for terrorists
and their
victims.
Ironically, while occupation of
Iraqi cities did deep and lasting damage to the United States, its
beneficial impact on Iraq will likely be superficial and transient. In
all, a painful waste of resources is winding down none too soon.
Pipes
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