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Top Stories
WashPost:
"A surge of diplomacy and an outburst of violence in the days since
world powers reached a deal with Iran illustrate both the promise and the
peril of what could be the start of a more peaceful era in the Middle
East - or the beginning of a new round of bloodletting... At the same
time, however, a sharp uptick in violence along some of the region's most
pronounced sectarian fault lines, including the beheading of three
Hezbollah members by al-Qaeda-linked rebels in Syria and a revival of
apparent death-squad activity in Iraq, points to the risks inherent in
the realignment that is underway. Although the threat of a war involving
Israel and Iran and drawing in the United States has abated for now, many
fear that the rapprochement is just as likely to exacerbate existing
conflicts as it is to heal them, by putting U.S. allegiance into play and
raising the stakes in the long-standing struggle for influence between
Shiite Iran and Sunni Arab states. 'There will be small wars,' predicted
Mohammed Obeid, a Beirut-¬based analyst who is close to Iranian-backed
Hezbollah and familiar with the thinking of its leaders. 'There won't be
a big war, but there will be more small wars, and they will
intensify.'" http://t.uani.com/1bIazQr
National Journal:
"House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is attempting to organize a
bipartisan coalition to draft a bill that would narrowly define what is,
and is not, acceptable in any final nuclear deal with Iran, National
Journal has learned. Cantor, the No. 2 House Republican and the highest-ranking
Jewish member of Congress, informed House Republicans of his plan at
Tuesday morning's conference meeting, according to sources in the room.
'I for one am really upset with that interim deal,' Cantor said,
according to those who were there, adding: 'We can go ahead and criticize
it, but ... we should be focused on what that final deal looks like.'
Cantor told his GOP colleagues that he's working with House Foreign
Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce, R-Calif., to find lawmakers in both
parties to support legislation that would 'speak volumes' about
congressional expectations for an agreement. Republican aides say
Cantor's effort represents the beginning of what they predict will be a
bipartisan push to 'put in writing' exactly what Congress expects in any
final deal on Iran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1cWj3QE
WSJ:
"Iran wants U.S. companies such as Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips
to develop its oil and gas fields, the country's oil minister said
Wednesday, signaling the Islamic Republic's readiness to court American
business interests amid a thaw in relations with the West... Speaking to
reporters ahead of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries, Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said, 'We have
no limitations for U.S. companies.' Asked who he would like to see return
or enter Iran, he named European giants Total SA, Royal Dutch Shell PLC,
Eni SpA, Statoil ASA and BP PLC. But he also named 'ConocoPhillips,
Chevron.' 'I am talking to some of them,' he said, without saying which.
In the 1990s, ConocoPhillips and Chevron tried to enter Iranian oil
projects but their efforts were scuttled when Washington banned such
investments for American companies. Many European companies, such as
Total and Shell, did move in before being forced to completely pull out
when the European Union forbid their presence in 2010." http://t.uani.com/1cb0t5j
Nuclear
Negotiations
Free Beacon:
"The White House is currently examining ways to enable Iran to have
its own 'domestic' uranium enrichment program, according to a senior
Obama administration official. As the details of a six month interim
nuclear deal between Iran and Western nations are hashed out, the White
House is exploring the practicality of permitting Iran to continue
certain enrichment activities, an issue that Iranian officials have
described as a 'redline.' 'Over the next six months, we will explore, in
practical terms, whether and how Iran might end up with a limited,
tightly constrained, and intensively monitored civilian nuclear program,
including domestic enrichment,' White House National Security Council
(NSC) spokesman Caitlin Hayden told the Washington Free Beacon. 'Any such
program,' she said, 'would be subject to strict and verifiable curbs on
its capacity and stockpiles of enriched uranium for a significant number
of years and tied to practical energy needs that will remain minimal for
years to come.'" http://t.uani.com/1k6wpvX
Sanctions
FT:
"Iran has threatened to trigger a price war in the global oil
markets, warning Opec members that it will increase output even if crude
prices tumble to $20 a barrel. The oil production cartel, which is
meeting in Vienna today, is set to keep its production target
unchanged... In spite of the apparent consensus, this week's meeting has
seen aggressive jockeying for internal position within the cartel.
Speaking to Iranian journalists in Farsi minutes before ministers went
into a closed-door meeting, Bijan Zangeneh, Iran's oil minister, said:
'Under any circumstances we will reach 4m b/d even if the price of oil
falls to $20 per barrel.' 'We will not give up our rights on this issue,'
Mr Zangeneh added, suggesting Opec would be able to accommodate rising
Iranian production to keep prices high... Buoyed by an interim agreement
on its nuclear programme ten days ago, Iran said it would raise
production from around 2.8m b/d today to 4m b/d next year. Iraq,
meanwhile, has also said it plans to increase production by 1m b/d next
year to 4mb/d. That would put pressure on prices, and push the cartel to
respond by reining in production from other members, although both
countries face significant challenges in meeting their ambitious
targets." http://t.uani.com/1gEdj0m
Reuters:
"Iran's draft budget estimates oil exports at around 1.1 million
barrels per day (bpd), oil ministry website Shana said on Tuesday,
indicating Tehran sees no major recovery in sales next year despite
improving relations with the West... President Hassan Rouhani is to
present the draft budget for the next Iranian year - beginning March 21 -
to parliament on Wednesday. Based on the open market exchange rate of
around 29,500 rials to the dollar, it puts total annual government expenditure
at just $64 billion (38 billion pounds) or $77 billion at the official
exchange rate. Rouhani's austere budget assumes an average oil price of
$100 per barrel, about $10 below current prices for benchmark Brent
crude, and forecasts 300,000 bpd in sales of gas condensate, a light
oil." http://t.uani.com/1bh9LM6
Reuters:
"Iran may sell oil from its floating storage after a recent deal
with western powers provided some relief to the Islamic nation,
International Energy Agency (IEA) head Maria van der Hoeven said at a gas
conference in New Delhi on Wednesday... 'In late October we saw they had
around 37 million barrels (oil) in floating storage. I can imagine that
Iran would like to get rid of them,' van der Hoeven said." http://t.uani.com/19gSyCJ
Reuters:
"An obscure Indian bank has been an unlikely beneficiary of Western
sanctions against Iran, handling billions of dollars from frozen oil
payments that boosted its interest margins, but is now having to prepare
itself for life after the windfall. UCO Bank, a Kolkata-based state
lender that had been among India's poorer performers, saw revenue and
profits surge after it was picked in 2012 to hold rupees for oil payments
to Iran, a pile that has grown to more than $3 billion... 'The Iran
business was a shot in the arm for us,' UCO Chairman Arun Kaul told
Reuters. 'Still, scope for improvement is very large. We had become a
marginal player in the banking industry, we are coming back now.'" http://t.uani.com/1g6i0mb
Syria Conflict
Reuters:
"A Hezbollah commander who fought in Syria's civil war was shot dead
outside his home in Lebanon on Wednesday in an attack which the militant
Shi'ite group blamed on Israel. Israel denied any role in the killing of
Hassan al-Laqqis, who was shot from close range by a silenced gun as he
arrived home at around midnight in the Hadath district of Beirut, a
source close to Hezbollah said... A previously unknown group, Ahrar
al-Sunna Baalbek brigade, claimed responsibility for the attack in a
message on Twitter. The claim could not be verified but the name of the
purported group suggested Lebanese Sunni Muslim connections... Hezbollah
described Laqqis, who will be buried in Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley later
in the day, as 'one of the leaders of the Islamic resistance' against Israel
who had been frequently targeted by the Jewish state... Israel would
'bear full responsibility and all the consequences for this heinous
crime', it said." http://t.uani.com/1gEdLvG
BBC:
"The head of the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah has said
Saudi Arabia was behind last month's bombings outside the Iranian embassy
in Beirut. Hassan Nasrallah told Lebanon's OTV television the attack was
linked to the Saudi intelligence services. The Sunni jihadist group
Abdullah Azzam Brigades said it was behind the double suicide bombing
which killed 25 people... In the interview, Hassan Nasrallah said the
Abdullah Azzam Brigades, the al-Qaeda-linked group, 'has an emir and he
is Saudi'. He said he believed that the group was 'linked to the Saudi
intelligence services.'" http://t.uani.com/1eVM0y8
Human Rights
Reuters: "An Iranian-American pastor imprisoned in Iran for more
than a year because of his Christian faith is in declining health for
lack of proper nutrition and necessary medication, a group seeking his
release said on Tuesday. An Iranian court in January sentenced Saeed
Abedini, 33, a naturalized U.S. citizen, to eight years in prison for
undermining national security by working to establish home-based
Christian churches in Iran from 2000 to 2005. The Washington-based
American Center for Law and Justice, which has petitioned Congress and
President Barack Obama to seek Abedini's release, said on Tuesday that
the pastor's father was allowed to visit him on Monday for the second
time since he was moved a month ago to a prison that houses violent
offenders. 'It's a worsening situation,' said Gene Kapp, spokesman for
the center. 'His father reported that he has visibly lost weight, he is
covered from head to toe with lice because of lack of basic hygiene and
he has been refused medicine for internal injuries he suffered at the
beginning of his incarceration.'" http://t.uani.com/IN70MO
Domestic
Politics
Bloomberg:
"Iran's central bank can help to cut the country's 40 percent
inflation rate in half by withdrawing from projects it funded under
former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a top bank official said.
Ahmadinejad, having pledged to improve the lives of poor Iranians, asked
the central bank to help fund cheap housing projects and make cash
payments to citizens after energy and food subsidies were halted in 2010,
triggering price rises. The Central Bank of Iran 'entered into areas and
undertook roles it shouldn't have,' Farhad Nili, director of the bank's
Monetary and Banking Research Institute, said in an interview in his
Tehran office. About half of Iran's inflation is due to the bank's
involvement in Ahmadinejad-ordered projects, Nili said. The central bank
'should not commit any longer when it comes to housing and budget
matters,' he said. 'It should say, 'I'm removing my balance sheet from
your hands.'" http://t.uani.com/1caZDFM
Reuters:
"Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday invited his
successor Hassan Rouhani to debate 'baseless and unfair' accusations that
he is largely responsible for Iran's economic ills. During a televised
speech to mark his first 100 days in office last week, Rouhani said
Ahmadinejad's profligacy and mismanagement were as much to blame for
inflation and currency devaluation as international sanctions. He said his
government had inherited some $67 billion dollars of debt from
Ahmadinejad, even though Iran raked in $600 billion in oil revenue during
his eight-year tenure. Writing to Rouhani, Ahmadinejad, who left office
in August, said he had decided to respond to what he called factually
incorrect comments that could lead to 'misguided' decision-making. 'I
found it necessary to invite your excellency to... clear up ambiguities
and subject the facts to scrutiny in a friendly atmosphere and frank
debate,' Ahmadinejad wrote in the letter, a copy of which was published
by Mehr news agency." http://t.uani.com/19gSp2e
Foreign Affairs
AP:
"Iran pressed on with a charm offensive in the Gulf on Wednesday, as
Tehran's top diplomat headed to the United Arab Emirates for talks with
the nation's leader in his latest visit to the Islamic Republic's Arab
neighbors. Iran has a strained relationship with the U.S.-allied Gulf
states, particularly regional rival Saudi Arabia. The Islamic Republic's
new government, led by moderate President Hassan Rouhani, has promised to
work to improve ties with nearby Arab countries." http://t.uani.com/1bfWWVR
AP:
"Iraq's prime minister has arrived in Iran's capital for a three-day
visit that will focus on the civil war in Syria and bilateral ties. Iranian
state television says Nouri al-Maliki will hold talks with Iran's top
leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani and others during
his trip, which began Wednesday. It is Maliki's first trip to Iran since
Rouhani came into office in August." http://t.uani.com/19gRONT
Opinion
& Analysis
James Rosen in Fox News:
"Before he paused to allow reporters to ask questions about the
nuclear deal with Iran that he had just announced in Geneva, Secretary of
State John Kerry seemed to anticipate one line of criticism about the
accord -- that it effectively cedes to the Islamic regime the right to
enrich uranium, despite half a dozen U.N. Security Council resolutions
declaring the activity illegal. And he moved, preemptively, to address
it. 'In 2003, when the Iranians made an offer to the former
administration with respect to their nuclear program, there were 164
centrifuges,' Kerry said in a news conference held in the early hours of
Nov. 24. 'That offer was not taken. Subsequently, sanctions came in, and
today there are 19,000 centrifuges and growing.' In essence, the
secretary of State was suggesting the staggering number of centrifuges
that Iran now has effectively forced the hand of the P5+1 negotiators at
the talks, making the placement of restrictions on Iran's nuclear program
the only realistic prospect the negotiators could pursue. Kerry also
suggested that had only President George W. Bush done the right thing a
decade ago, the United States and its allies in the P5+1 -- Britain,
France, Germany, China and Russia -- wouldn't have found themselves in
such a precarious negotiating posture. Yet a Fox News review of reports
by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and analyses prepared by
leading research institutions -- including the Arms Control Association,
the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Federation of
American Scientists -- shows that the vast majority of Iran's enrichment
capability came online during the Obama administration. It is known that
by late 2007, Iran possessed about 3,000 centrifuges. Over the course of
Bush's final 12 to 15 months in the White House, it can be assumed safely
that Iran added to, but probably did not fully double, the number of
centrifuges it had installed. A fair estimate would accordingly place the
number of the spinning machines that Iran had on hand at the beginning of
2009 at 5,000. This would mean that roughly 25 percent of the regime's
current total of centrifuges had been installed when the Bush-Cheney era
ended. Put another way: Roughly 74 percent of the centrifuges Iran now
has on hand were installed since the Obama-Biden team assumed office.
Analysts say 10,000 of the total are actively enriching uranium to low
levels, inconsistent with nuclear weapons production but well suited to
the task should a decision be made to pursue that goal... Kerry's concise
history of the Iranian nuclear program, which encompassed only the years
2003 and 2013, naturally omitted quite a lot. Determining exactly when
the regime crossed a given technical threshold can be difficult, given
the opacity of the government and the complex of commercial, military,
and scientific institutions that have contributed to the program over the
last two decades. The secretary plans to testify before Congress on Iran,
for the first time since the deal was announced, in a House Foreign
Affairs Committee hearing on Dec. 10 -- an opportunity to provide more
clarity." http://t.uani.com/INb0gf
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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