Monday, December 9, 2013

Eye on Iran: Obama Warns 'Ideal World' Iran Deal Not Possible








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AFP:
"President Barack Obama warned Saturday that Israel's vision of an 'ideal' nuclear agreement with Iran was unrealistic and put the chance of any acceptable final deal emerging at no more than 50/50. But Obama argued that the best possible available agreement with Tehran was likely to be better than the alternatives, and it was therefore imperative to try to secure one. Obama, speaking at the Brookings Institution's Saban Forum in Washington, said a deal was possible that included enough verification safeguards to assure foreign powers Tehran could not build a nuclear bomb. He indicated that could include a very 'modest' option for Iran to enrich uranium as part of a peaceful nuclear program under intense scrutiny by outside observers that would ensure Tehran was kept from 'breakout' capacity needed to race to build an atomic weapon. 'If we could create an option in which Iran eliminated every single nut and bolt of their nuclear program and foreswore the possibility of ever having a nuclear program, and for that matter got rid of all its military capabilities, I would take it,' Obama said. 'But I want to make sure everybody understands it -- that particular option is not available, so as a consequence, what we have to do is make a decision, as to given the options available, what is the best way for us to assure Iran does not get a nuclear weapon?' ... 'One can envision an ideal world in which Iran said we will destroy every element or facility and you name it it is all gone.' But he added: 'I think we have to be more realistic and ask ourselves what puts us in a strong position to assure ourselves that Iran is not having a nuclear weapon.'" http://t.uani.com/1jDKRhF

Reuters: "Iran is moving ahead with testing more efficient uranium enrichment technology, a spokesman for its atomic energy agency said on Saturday, in news that may concern world powers who last month agreed a deal to curb Tehran's atomic activities. Spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi was quoted by state news agency IRNA as saying that initial testing on a new generation of more sophisticated centrifuges had been completed, underlining Iran's determination to keep refining uranium in what it says is work to make fuel for a planned network of nuclear power plants. Although the development does not appear to contravene the interim agreement struck between world powers and Iran last month, it may concern the West nonetheless, as the material can also provide the fissile core of a nuclear bomb if enriched to a high degree." http://t.uani.com/IW7AY6

AP: "Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said Sunday that last month's nuclear deal with world powers has already boosted the country's economy, as he continues a push to convince skeptics of the benefits brought by the pact's partial sanctions relief. Rouhani told an open session of parliament that, after the 'success' of the talks, investors were gravitating to businesses and the stock exchange. 'Economic activities have been shifted to the stock exchange from gold, hard currency and real estate,' said Rouhani in his televised speech. He gave no specific figures... Analysts say that the deal is a first step toward economic normalcy, and thus is likely to have a psychological effect that could boost markets." http://t.uani.com/1gSkWAm
 
Nuclear Negotiations

AFP: "Technical experts from Iran, world powers and the UN atomic watchdog were due to start working out on Monday the nuts and bolts of implementing last month's landmark nuclear deal. In particular the two-day Vienna meeting, due to begin at 1400 GMT, will seek to nail down the start date of Iran's promised six-month nuclear freeze, how this will be monitored and when sanctions will be eased. After the talks with representatives from the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- the P5+1 -- Iranian officials will then meet just with the International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1e0KYUo

Reuters: "U.N. inspectors visited an Iranian plant on Sunday linked to a planned heavy-water reactor that could yield nuclear bomb fuel, taking up an initial offer by Tehran to open its disputed nuclear program to greater scrutiny... It was the first time in more than two years that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had been allowed to go to the Arak heavy water production plant, which is designed to supply a research reactor under construction nearby... Two inspectors arrived in Tehran on Saturday and met experts from Iran's own atomic energy agency before travelling to Arak in the evening, Iran's ISNA news agency reported. 'The inspection is under way and will be finished this afternoon, and they (the inspectors) will return to Tehran,' said Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Iranian atomic energy agency. 'The inspectors will go back to Vienna tonight.'" http://t.uani.com/1hI5CJF

Reuters: "A top U.S. diplomat said Saturday that the United States would rely on 'intrusive' monitoring rather than trust for Iran's curtailing of its nuclear program. 'Decades of mistrust' between the United States and Iran meant that Washington would 'have to rely on verification and monitoring' of Iran's nuclear facilities, said Wendy Sherman, the U.S. under secretary of state for political affairs and a lead negotiator of last month's nuclear talks with the Islamic Republic, in an interview with Al Arabiya News Channel. 'We have put in place, even in this first step, the most intrusive monitoring that's existed in Iran,' said Sherman." http://t.uani.com/J6RhIs

AP: "Iran's president defended an interim nuclear deal that eases some of the international community's crippling economic sanctions in return for a freeze on part of the Islamic Republic's uranium enrichment activities, saying Saturday that improving the economy is as important as maintaining a peaceful nuclear program... His televised speech to university students was interrupted by rival chanting from hard-liners and moderates in the audience, highlighting the divide in Iranian politics that the president faces. 'Nuclear technology and uranium enrichment is our definite right,' Rouhani said. 'But progress, better living conditions and welfare for the people is also our definite right. Breaking and dismantling the architecture of the ominous and oppressive sanctions is also our definite right.' ... His speech was interrupted by chants of 'moderation, reforms' from supporters and 'Death to America' from hard-line students who attended the speech." http://t.uani.com/1brXxE3

AFP: "Diplomacy with Iran must be backed up by US military might, Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel said Saturday in a speech to Gulf allies anxious over a nuclear deal with Tehran. Hagel promised the United States would maintain a 35,000-strong force in the Gulf region, as well as an armada of ships and warplanes, despite the recent accord with Tehran. Speaking at a security conference in Bahrain, he said the interim deal with Iran to roll back its nuclear programme was a risk worth taking, but that Western diplomacy should not be 'misinterpreted'. 'We know diplomacy cannot operate in a vacuum,' he said. 'Our success will continue to hinge on America's military power, and the credibility of our assurances to our allies and partners in the Middle East.' The Pentagon 'will not make any adjustments to its forces in the region -- or to its military planning -- as a result of the interim agreement with Iran,' he added... 'Coupled with our unique munitions, no target is beyond our reach,' said Hagel, in an apparent reference to 'bunker buster' bombs designed to penetrate deeply buried targets." http://t.uani.com/J53o8T

WSJ: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said any comprehensive deal reached between global powers and Iran to curb its nuclear program must include Tehran's commitment to cease its threats against the Jewish state and to end support for militant Lebanese and Palestinian groups. Mr. Netanyahu's comments on Sunday marked his latest effort to toughen the terms of any final accord reached between the international diplomatic bloc-made up of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany-and Iran over the country's nuclear program... Mr. Netanyahu for the first time on Sunday said an international agreement with Iran must go beyond the nuclear issue and address Tehran's support for the militant groups fighting Israel and Tehran's repeated threats to destroy the Zionist state. On the eve of last month's talks in Geneva, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei referred to Mr. Netanyahu as a 'rabid dog' and the Israeli population as less than human. '[Iran] is committed to our annihilation, and I believe that there must be an uncompromising demand at the Geneva talks, for a change in Iran's policy,' Mr. Netanyahu said. 'In other words, there needs to be not just a change in the capability of Iran to arm itself, but also a change in its policy of genocide.'" http://t.uani.com/18w5mYZ

AFP: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that a 'military option' was 'necessary' for the success of negotiations aimed at reining in Iran's disputed nuclear program. Netanyahu said the Jewish state shared US President Barack Obama's 'preference' to pursue diplomacy 'but for diplomacy to succeed, it must be coupled with powerful sanctions and a credible military threat.' 'A diplomatic solution is better than a military option but a military option is necessary for diplomacy to succeed as a powerful sanction because of the pressure,' he told a forum hosted by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank... 'Steps must be taken to prevent further erosion of the sanctions because ultimately the sanctions remain an essential element of the international effort to compel Iran to dismantle its nuclear military infrastructure, to take apart all its centrifuges,' he said. 'We shouldn't assume that more and tougher sanctions won't lead to a better deal.'" http://t.uani.com/1cw2dd1

AFP: "Gulf Cooperation Council states must be part of the negotiations between major world powers and Iran, oil-rich Saudi Arabia's former intelligence chief said on Sunday... 'I suggest that the negotiations on Iran not be limited to the P5+1' comprising the United States, China, Britain, France and Germany, Prince Turki al-Faisal said. 'The Gulf Cooperation Council must be involved,' added the influential Saudi royal, who also served as ambassador in both the United States and Britain... 'Ongoing talks are incomplete and the presence of the GCC states on the (negotiating) table will benefit everyone,' Faisal said." http://t.uani.com/1jCbt2q

Reuters: "The leaders of three U.S. Senate committees asked intelligence officials on Friday for regular briefings on whether Iran is complying with an interim agreement to rein in its nuclear program, as Congress weighs whether to impose a new round of sanctions on Tehran... The letter, dated Friday, asked for briefings from the intelligence community every 45 days, starting on January 30, on whether Iran is complying with terms of the interim deal reached in Geneva on November 24. It was from Senators Tim Johnson, chairman of the Banking Committee, which oversees sanctions legislation, Dianne Feinstein, who heads the Intelligence Committee, and Carl Levin, who heads the Armed Services Committee." http://t.uani.com/1dflxdb

Sanctions

AFP: "US lawmakers are preparing a possible vote on new sanctions against Iran, a move President Barack Obama and his P5+1 partners fear could sabotage the nuclear deal reached in Geneva... But even as the six-month Geneva agreement provides for partial suspension of existing sanctions, a bipartisan group of senators led by Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Robert Menendez, a Democrat, and Republican Senator Mark Kirk were set to unveil a sanctions bill. The text would serve as a stick of sorts 'if the regime cheats on the interim deal or tries to drag out negotiations on a final deal,' said one Senate aide involved in the sanctions discussions. 'The senators remain hopeful a deal can be reached this week in time to put something on the president's desk by Christmas.' The timing or legislative vehicle for the text depend on a decision by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who last month expressed support for introducing new sanctions legislation but hasn't said whether he will allow a vote next week." http://t.uani.com/18NXsgc

WashPost: "Multiple Democrats on Capitol Hill are worried that House Democratic leaders are close to joining with House GOP leaders to support a bipartisan measure that could undermine the White House's efforts to reach a long term deal curbing Iran's nuclear program, I'm told by sources involved in discussions. The worry is that Dem Rep. Steny Hoyer, the number two House Dem, may join with GOP Rep. Eric Cantor on a resolution or bill that will either criticize the current temporary deal with Iran, or call for a new round of sanctions, or set as U.S. policy some strict parameters on a final deal with Iran, such as opposition to any continued uranium enrichment, House Democratic aides say. House Dems and outside foreign policy observers have communicated such worries to Hoyer's office, sources add... Any resolution or bill along these lines that has the support of any House Dem leaders would increase the pressure on Senate Democrats to pass a measure of their own, which the White House opposes." http://t.uani.com/IXhWqE

WT: "As the Obama administration lifts some of the sanctions against Iran as part of the West's nuclear deal with the Islamic republic, some U.S. companies are looking at Iran for possible business opportunities even as skeptics warn that Iran remains an unstable environment for business... Now, Iranians are ready to spend, and they are looking to the U.S. and elsewhere for cars, airplanes and mining equipment, according to the newly founded Iran America Chamber of Commerce... But skeptics are warning against doing business with Iran, even if the sanctions are lifted. 'American companies are playing a dangerous game in thinking of going back into Iran now,' said Nathan Carleton, spokesman for United Against Nuclear Iran. 'An interim diplomatic agreement that has consistently been described as temporary and reversible is not a justification to rush back into Iran or do business with the regime. Sanctions must still be obeyed and enforced.'" http://t.uani.com/18OVxbf

Military Matters

NYT: "In the past six months, this small United States Navy coastal patrol ship has engaged Iranian gunboats three times in international waters here [in the Persian Gulf]. Crew members on both sides came up on deck to snap photographs or take video from 300 yards away - souvenirs for the Americans, surveillance for the Iranians, Navy officials say - before the vessels went their own ways without incident. 'They eyeballed us, and we eyeballed them right back, but everything was professional,' said Lt. Cmdr. Jared W. Samuelson, 33, the skipper of the Whirlwind and its 27-member crew." http://t.uani.com/IW3WNP

AP: "Iran has dramatically improved the accuracy of its ballistic missiles by using laser systems, its defense minister said Monday. In comments broadcast on state TV, Hossein Dehghan said Iranian missiles can now strike within two meters (yards) of their targets, compared to 200 meters (yards) previously. 'The inaccuracy of (our) ballistic long-range missiles in hitting targets is so minimal that we can pinpoint targets. The accuracy of surface-to-surface missiles is now two meters, while at some stage in the past it was 200 meters. We strive to reach zero inaccuracy,' Dehghan said." http://t.uani.com/1f1yloC

Domestic Politics

AFP: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told university students Saturday that tolerance could resolve the issue of political prisoners, as some of them chanted for opposition leaders under house arrest to be freed. 'My government is committed to the promises it has made to the people, but we need to create internal consensus to achieve the objectives,' Rouhani told students at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. 'We need tolerance and patience? We need to distance ourselves from an emotional atmosphere. Reason and moderation can resolve the issues,' he added during the meeting, organised to mark Students' Day. He was speaking in reaction to some students chanting slogans calling for the release of political prisoners. Among them are opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who have been kept under house arrest since February 2011 and without being officially charged." http://t.uani.com/1bR3ddn

Reuters: "Iranian president Hassan Rouhani said tackling inflation and boosting growth were the country's economic priorities as he presented an austerity budget, his first, to parliament on Sunday. Inflation has soared in the last few years, a trend analysts say is due to increasingly tough economic sanctions and fiscal mismanagement by former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 'Employment is the most important future issue for the economy but now the biggest problem is (tackling) stagflation,' Rouhani in a live address on state television. 'The combination of stagnation and inflation over the past two years was unprecedented,' he said. Iran's budget for the year starting in March 2014 tops $66 billion, calculated on an open-market exchange rate." http://t.uani.com/18v63Sf

Foreign Affairs

AFP: "Iran wants all foreign forces to leave Afghanistan, President Hassan Rouhani told his visiting Afghan counterpart Sunday amid a row between Kabul and Washington over a long-delayed security pact. Iran 'is opposed to the presence of any foreign force in the region, the Middle East, the Persian Gulf and particularly the Islamic country of Afghanistan,' Rouhani told Hamid Karzai, who was in Tehran for a one-day visit. 'Iran is concerned about tensions caused by the presence of foreign forces in the region,' Rouhani added in remarks reported by the state broadcaster on its website, iribnews.ir." http://t.uani.com/1bR3f50

AFP: "The funeral service of Nelson Mandela could be a 'trap' for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani because he could run into US President Barack Obama, a hardline Iranian daily warned Sunday. The Islamic republic has yet to announce who will travel to South Africa for Tuesday's memorial service and next Sunday's funeral for the late president and Nobel laureate. Hardline newspaper Kayhan warned in an editorial that if Rouhani attends it could bring him face to face with Obama, 'head of the Great Satan government'. 'Some domestic and foreign media outlets are using the funeral ceremony as a pretext to push Rouhani towards a meeting with the head of the Great Satan government,' Kayhan said." http://t.uani.com/J52qtp
Opinion & Analysis

UANI President Gary Samore in Iran Matters: "I am here in Saudi Arabia as a guest of Prince Turki al-Faisal of the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh. Prince Turki hosted a lunch and seminar for me with Saudi academics and foreign policy experts and a public speaking event on 'Creating a WMD Free Zone in the Middle East.' ... On the Iran nuclear issue, I was struck that the Saudis are less concerned with the details of the nuclear negotiations and more with how the nuclear issue fits into the broader geopolitical threat they perceive from Iran. Unlike Israelis, who see the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat, the Saudis see the Islamic Republic itself as an existential threat. The threat to Saudi Arabia is not a nuclear attack, but Iran's conventional forces and potential to stir up dissention among the Arab Shi'a of the Arabian Peninsula by working through proxies such as Hezbollah. Bahrain is exhibit one. They fear that the Shi'a of Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province could be next. Informed Saudis understand that Washington and Tehran are not on the verge of imposing a condominium in the region. Even if the nuclear issue were somehow resolved (and Saudi foreign policy experts understand this is not likely to happen anytime soon), there are too many other points of dispute between the U.S. and Iran. Nonetheless, the Saudis fear that the U.S. will accommodate Iran on other issues of importance to the Kingdom in exchange for Iranian cooperation to resolve the nuclear issue. One theory making the rounds, for example, is that President Obama decided not to increase military support for the Syrian rebels in order to avoid upsetting the secret US-Iranian talks in Oman. Frustrating Riyadh further, they see Iran's regional isolation slipping away as Turkey and the smaller Gulf States respond to Tehran's regional 'charm offensive' and prospects for business opportunities if the nuclear issue is resolved." http://t.uani.com/18OW90B

Josh Rogin in The Daily Beast: "The latest blow to the opposition delivered by Washington was the P5+1 deal with Iran over that country's nuclear weapons program, Corker and many others said. 'There's no question that the Iranian deal has lifted the morale of the regime and it has deflated the opposition, from that standpoint,' said Corker. 'The sanctions relief will allow more money to flow to Syria from Iran, so there will be a tangible effect if sanctions are lifted, that money could end up in the hands of groups like Hezbollah fighting on the ground in Syria.' Oubai Shahbandar, a former Pentagon official now advising the Syrian opposition, was more blunt. 'Many Syrians feel that the Iran deal has signaled the West's readiness to cede Syria to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Qods Force and Hezbollah occupational forces. Both Iran and Assad are emboldened. A renewed commitment is needed to prevent Iranian expansion in Syria and the region,' he said. Iran's potential participation in the Geneva 2 discussions would be an additional indignity to those in the Syrian opposition who still seek cooperation with the United States and the West. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers told The Daily Beast that he doesn't think Iran should be included. 'I don't believe Iran is an honest broker in Syria to any degree. They are operating Hezbollah, supporting them, giving them weapons, giving them intelligence,' he said. 'That would not be a great outcome. You cannot continue to alienate our allies in the region, just to get a deal.' State Department officials said that Iran would be invited to the conference if they publicly come out in support for the Geneva 1 communique, which calls for a transitional governing body to take power while elections are scheduled. The U.S. and Russia disagree over whether that body would have full executive powers during said transition. 'It's about embracing the Geneva communique, which they have not done. If they do that, we will evaluate whether or not we'd support an invitation to [Iran] to attend the conference,' said State Department Spokeswoman Jen Psaki. For many experts, the Obama administration's stance is increasingly more aligned with the Assad regime and its allies than with the opposition. 'Rightly or wrongly, the administration' view the jihadist opposition as the real enemy. What they would like is for the U.S.-backed centrists and moderates to work with the regime against the real extremists. The Iranians would like to see that as well,' said Jim Hooper, a former U.S. diplomat in Damascus." http://t.uani.com/1f1AUa8

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.





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