Top Stories
Reuters:
"U.S. senators will introduce legislation to impose new sanctions on
Iran as soon as this week, Senate aides said on Wednesday, despite the
Obama administration's insistence that such a measure would violate terms
of an interim agreement to curb Tehran's nuclear program. Iran's foreign
minister has also said a new sanctions law would kill the agreement. In
the interim agreement, Tehran agreed to limit uranium enrichment in
return for an easing of international sanctions. Robert Menendez, the
Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and
Republican Senator Mark Kirk are finishing legislation that would target
Iran's remaining oil exports and foreign exchange and seek to limit
President Barack Obama's ability to waive sanctions. However, the measure
would impose the new sanctions only if the interim deal has gone nowhere
in six months or Iran violates terms of the agreement. Supporters said
that would comply with the administration's request to allow negotiators
to pursue a comprehensive diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear crisis.
But the measure faces an uphill battle to become law." http://t.uani.com/18nMQEq
WSJ:
"Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC agreed to pay $100 million in
penalties over allegations that it violated U.S. sanctions against Iran,
Sudan and other nations, in the latest move by regulators to crack down
on money laundering. Federal and state agencies said Wednesday that RBS
took steps to prevent payments it processed from being flagged as subject
to sanctions. In many cases, RBS removed 'material references' to
U.S.-sanctioned locations or individuals from payment messages, according
to the U.S. Treasury Department. 'This action demonstrates our continuing
efforts to aggressively enforce U.S. sanctions laws against Iran and
other sanctioned parties,' Adam Szubin, director of the Treasury's Office
of Foreign Assets Control, said in a statement. In addition to the
Treasury, RBS also settled with the Federal Reserve and the New York
Department of Financial Services... RBS will pay $50 million to the
federal agencies and $50 million to the New York agency, which agreed to
not take further action against the bank over the alleged violations
covered by the agreement. The agreement also calls for RBS to beef up its
policies to prevent such activity from occurring... The Treasury
Department said RBS interfered with U.S. sanctions from at least 2005 to
2009. Separately, the New York Department of Financial Services said in a
consent order that, from at least 2002 to 2011, RBS conducted more than
3,500 transactions through New York banks involving Sudanese and Iranian
customers and beneficiaries." http://t.uani.com/Ji7zyr
The Hill:
"Large majorities of voters from both parties want to increase the
pressure on Iran, according to a new poll, complicating President Obama's
effort to get Congress to back off. Almost 8 in 10 Americans - 77 percent
- believe further economic sanctions and financial pressure are the best
way to get Iran to abandon its alleged nuclear weapons program, according
to a poll of 900 likely voters released Wednesday. The poll found that
most voters, 77 percent of Democrats and 96 percent of Republicans, would
rather vote for a senator who approves new sanctions. 'Finally, we have
found an issue of substance that both Democrats and Republicans agree
on,' said Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who conducted the poll for The
Israel Project, a pro-Israel group. 'The fear of Iranian nuclear weapons
unites just about everyone.' ... In other bad news for the
administration, the poll found that 86 percent of respondents believe a
final deal should prohibit Iran from any sort of enrichment or related
nuclear fuel capability." http://t.uani.com/1h2Yuog
Nuclear
Negotiations
Reuters: "The U.N. nuclear watchdog signaled on Wednesday it would
press Iran at talks in Tehran next month over concerns the Islamic
Republic may have researched how to develop atomic bombs. Chief U.N.
nuclear inspector Tero Varjoranta made the comments after what he and
Iranian envoy Reza Najafi both described as a 'productive' meeting held
at the Vienna headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA). They said they had reviewed progress in implementing the initial
steps of a cooperation pact the two sides signed last month, under which
Iran agreed to grant the U.N. agency access to two nuclear-related sites
within three months... Asked about the IAEA's concerns over what it calls
the possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program, Varjoranta
said: 'We envisage that this ... will be discussed in our next meeting',
to be held in Tehran on January 21." http://t.uani.com/19EpbdG
JPost: "Iranian interpretations of the Geneva interim nuclear
agreement, which run contrary to the White House's presentation of the
accord, are going unchecked by the Obama administration, a security
expert told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. Dr. Emily Landau, who heads
the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for
National Security Studies, expressed concern over the White House's
ongoing silence in the face of Iranian attempts to redefine the Geneva
agreement after its signing. Landau cited recent examples of Iranian
interpretations of the agreement that contradict claims put forward by the
US, including the 'immediate Iranian rejection of the White House fact
sheet [on the Geneva interim accord].' According to Iran's publication of
its own interpretation of what was achieved in Geneva and an announcement
by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, within days of the
agreement, Iran will continue construction work at Arak. On Monday,
Landau noted, Iran announced that it is testing its advanced
new-generation centrifuges... 'We saw a lot of this in the 2003-2005
period - continuous arguing over who agreed to what, who is upholding
what. That period ended with the EU3 totally disillusioned with Iran and
its lack of good faith,' she said. 'What we have seen so far, since the
late November agreement, is Iran indeed demonstrating that it will
continue to push the envelope with its interpretations, with statements
and pronouncements that certainly do not indicate good faith as far as
its intentions to back down from military aspirations,' Landau continued.
Most disturbingly, the P5+1, and the US in particular, are 'not even
reacting,' she said." http://t.uani.com/1cqeQml
Free Beacon: "The White House says that an Iranian ballistic missile
test would not invalidate a recently signed nuclear accord meant to
temporarily halt some of Iran's most controversial nuclear work. The
White House clarified its stance just days before Iran is scheduled to
launch another ballistic missile some 75 miles into the atmosphere."
http://t.uani.com/1cBLSn4
NYT: "Commenting on the temporary nuclear agreement negotiated last
month with the world powers, Mr. Jafari [commander of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps] said that Iran had 'given the maximum and
received the minimum,' but he added that Iran's 'red lines,' most
prominently what it says is its right to enrich uranium on its own soil,
had not yet been crossed. The West is trying to pressure Iran to give in
on its principles, Mr. Jafari said, adding that this will never happen.
'They do this so Iran crosses its red lines,' he said, 'but this is
impossible, and if the other side takes such an approach, we will return
to the past.'" http://t.uani.com/1bYP9OY
Sanctions
Bloomberg: "Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew warned corporate
executives not to test the U.S.'s commitment to sanctions against Iran
and said enforcement will be 'unflinching.' An international agreement
designed to limit Iran's nuclear program 'does nothing to undo or weaken
the core architecture of our sanctions regime,' Lew told the American
Jewish Joint Distribution Committee last night in Washington. 'Our goal
is to build pressure to change the policy of the Iranian government --
and in this case, the only acceptable end result is an Iran that does not
have nuclear weapons.' ... In his speech after meeting with the senators,
Lew said 'our enforcement of the sanctions regime will be as unflinching
as ever -- so any CEO, general counsel, or business person who thinks now
might be a time to test our resolve, better think again.'" http://t.uani.com/18WEYdv
The Hill: "The State and Treasury departments on Thursday designated
companies officials say have not obeyed sanctions against Iran, and have
supported its nuclear program. Companies such as Mid Oil Asia, Singa
Tankers, Siqiriya Maritime, Ferland Company Limited and Vitaly Sokolenko
are among those that the U.S. says have evaded sanctions imposed against
Iran. The action prohibits Americans from engaging in transactions
with the listed companies and freezes assets. 'We remain committed to
vigorously enforcing our sanctions regime and to exposing the Government
of Iran's efforts to use deceptive practices and front companies to
further its nuclear program,' the State Department said in a
release." http://t.uani.com/1aYNYZP
Reuters: "Nineteen people and companies in Europe and Asia acted as
middlemen for Iranian airline Mahan Air, helping it procure supplies from
the United States in violation of U.S. sanctions, the U.S. Commerce
Department said on Wednesday. The regulatory notice from the department
posted online provided further insight into the operations of Mahan Air,
a commercial airline that the United States has accused of providing
funds and transport for Iran's elite forces and flying weapons to Syria.
The notice charged that the middlemen 'engaged in the development and
operation of an illicit aviation procurement network designed to evade
the U.S. government's sanctions against Iran.' A majority of the
companies and people are based in Turkey, and others are in Armenia,
Greece, Iran, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. They included Greece's
Aeolian Airlines and Armenia's Vertir Airlines, both small charter firms.
The Commerce Department added the firms to its 'Entity List,' which
largely prohibits them from buying restricted items from the United
States, such as aircraft engines or spare parts." http://t.uani.com/1aYFXUx
Reuters: "Turkey's state-run Halkbank can only resume processing
Indian oil payments to Iran once Western sanctions are officially lifted
following an interim deal in Geneva last month, a senior Halkbank
official said on Wednesday. 'If the deal signed in Geneva becomes
official, we could resume processing Indian oil payments to Iran,' Hakan
Aydogan, head of Halkbank's foreign operations department told reporters.
'Despite the breakthrough, the positive developments, there has not been
official progress in this,' he said." http://t.uani.com/19jTav9
Syria Conflict
Al-Monitor: "In a recent speech, commander of Iran's Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) Maj.-Gen. Mohammad Ali Jaffari talked about Iran's
involvement in Syria in more blunt terms than many other Iranian
officials have used... In his speech at Imam Sadegh University, where
many IRGC students graduate, Jaffari said, 'We will do whatever is
necessary to save the Syrian government.' He continued, 'We have also
stated this before, that we have special forces transferring experience
and training who are doing advisory work, and this is open,' adding that
this was at 'the request of the official government.' ... Jaffari also
said that despite the efforts of other countries, President Bashar
al-Assad's position is strengthening in Syria, in part due to the efforts
of Iran. 'Now the enemy acknowledges that the only reason that they were
not successful in Syria is the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran of
the Syrian government,' he said. 'The situation in Syria is becoming
better day by day. Of course, parts of Syria are occupied by the fighters
opposed to the Syrian government, but the process is such that there is
no place for worry about this, and the process is going forward in favor
of the Syrian government.'" http://t.uani.com/1dtiApt
AFP: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged all 'responsible
countries' to act to ensure a Syrian peace conference achieves positive
results, in remarks made in Iran on Wednesday... Lavrov repeatedly called
Iran a 'key player' that could help resolve the Syrian conflict and
should be invited to Geneva. The Syrian opposition is strongly opposed to
Tehran taking part in the talks, while Assad's regime opposes any
participation by leading rebel champion Saudi Arabia. Zarif repeated that
Iran was ready to go to Geneva but 'without precondition.'" http://t.uani.com/1bzOIIn
Human Rights
IHR: "Seven prisoners were hanged in the Rajai Shahr Prison of Karaj
(west of Tehran) today... Iranian official media have not announced the
news of these executions yet. According to IHR's 'annual report on the
death penalty in Iran-2012' about 49% of the 580 executions confirmed by
the IHR were carried out secretly or were not announced by the official
sources." http://t.uani.com/1iXDHqP
Al-Monitor: "At a meeting of the High Council of Cultural
Revolution, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei very publicly rejected
President Hassan Rouhani's proposed cultural policies. The president
recently promised the administration would interfere in cultural affairs
at a 'minimum level' and pass on more responsibility to those individuals
active in the field. Khamenei, however, at a meeting in which the
president was seated immediately to his left, rebuked Rouhani's position
and reminded him that the administration and the government should not
ignore its supervisory duties in the cultural field. He said, 'Entrusting
cultural issues to the people does not negate the regulatory role and
guidance of the administration.' ... The supreme leader's support for a
more assertive cultural policy may open the door for more criticism from
hard-liners in Iran against Rouhani's cultural initiatives and could
possibly lead to more setbacks." http://t.uani.com/1e7S35H
AFP: "Two Slovak paragliders arrested in Iran for allegedly spying
were in their country's embassy in Tehran after their premier flew in to
secure their release, the Bratislava government said Thursday. 'Prime
Minister Robert Fico and Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcak have concluded
negotiations with Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri in Tehran,' said
the Slovak premier's spokeswoman Beatrice Hudakova. 'Both Slovak
officials have met the paragliders at Slovakia's embassy in Tehran,' she
said in a statement issued in Bratislava. The pair were the last of eight
Slovak paragliders who had been detained in May, after the remaining six
were released in September... Friends of the paragliders have told AFP
they were not spies, but were travelling to film documentaries from a
bird's-eye view." http://t.uani.com/1aYFHF6
Foreign Affairs
WSJ: "Iran's recently appointed nonresident envoy to Britain will
make his inaugural visit to London Thursday and Friday, the U.K.
government said Wednesday. The visit by Mohammad Hassan Habibollahzadeh,
Iran's nonresident chargé d'affaires, marks the next step in efforts to
mend diplomatic relations between the two nations that were broken when
Britain's embassy in Tehran was overrun by protesters two years ago. It
follows what the U.K. Foreign Office described as a 'successful first
visit' to Tehran by its new nonresident envoy to Iran, Ajay Sharma, on
Dec 3. Mr. Habibollahzadeh will meet with U.K. officials on Friday,
including Mr. Sharma, it said." http://t.uani.com/1h2PtvC
Opinion
& Analysis
Maseh Zarif in AEI:
"It is no surprise that Secretary Kerry had a rough time yesterday
on the Hill trying to defend the deal over Iran's nuclear weapons
program. The administration's deeply flawed agreement with Iran, which
has yet to be implemented, is bound to wither under tough scrutiny.
Kerry's testimony offered up a number of embellishments that do not match
up to reality:
'Under this
agreement, Iran will forfeit all - not part, all - of that 20 percent
[enriched uranium], that 200 kilogram stockpile. Gone...Under this
agreement, Iran will have to neutralize - end - its entire stockpile of
20 percent enriched uranium.'
This is a misleading
statement. The Iranians did not agree to relinquish or eliminate their
stockpile of 20% enriched uranium. They say they will convert half of the
existing stockpile of 20% enriched uranium gas into a solid form and
de-enrich the other half down to the 5% level. The material converted
into solid form can be converted back to gas for use in producing weapons-grade
uranium within a few weeks. Any material converted down can be
re-enriched up to 20% in 6 months at recent rates or in 2 months using
full capacity at Fordow. This is not the permanent elimination implied by
the statement.
'We will have access
to [the] Fordow [uranium enrichment plant], a secret facility in a
mountaintop that we've never been in.'
This statement is
false. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been conducting
periodic inspections at the Fordow facility since the US exposed it in
2009. IAEA inspectors first visited the facility on October 26, 2009 and
most recently conducted an inspection there early last month. The 'Joint
Plan of Action' states that Iran would provide IAEA inspectors daily
access 'for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records' at
Fordow. That is far cry from what Secretary Kerry was spinning.
'Now, sanctions
relief is limited to the very few targeted areas that are specified in
this agreement for a total of about the $7 billion.'
This figure has been
criticized in recent weeks by outside experts for underestimating the
likely value of sanctions relief that Iran will gain. It appears that the
administration has come around to share that view. Haaretz reported today
that, according to Israeli security sources, senior Obama administration
officials 'have conceded over the past few days in conversations with
colleagues in Israel that the value of economic sanctions relief to Iran
could be much higher than originally thought in Washington.'
'...[Iran] will not
be permitted to grow its stockpile of 3.5 percent enriched uranium.'
Not exactly. Apart
from the potential of undeclared activities, under the terms of the
agreement, the Iranians would continue to produce 3.5% enriched uranium
at Natanz over the six-month period and would eventually convert the
material to solid form 'when the line for conversion of [uranium gas]
enriched up to 5% to [uranium oxide powder] is ready.' Iran's stockpile
of 3.5% enriched uranium will be permitted to grow and any conversion
that Iran may undertake will be reversible." http://t.uani.com/IHxXkE
Nader Habibi in Harvard's Iran Matters: "As I mentioned
in my previous post, the sanctions relief that the group of 5+1 have
offered in this agreement can have a significant positive impact on
Iran's dire economic conditions despite being temporary. Some experts
have claimed that this package will only have a positive psychological
impact on Iran's economic climate, but a look at the specific components
of the relief package point to a potentially deeper impact. The relief
package has five major components: 1) Iran will gain access to a limited
amount of its export revenues that have been inaccessible because of the
financial sanctions; 2) removal of restrictions on exports of
petrochemicals; 3) lifting of sanctions on sea transport services and
cargo insurance; 4) lifting of restrictions on imports of parts and
technology for Iran's automobile industry; and 5) lifting of sanctions on
gold trade... In response to the conservative critics of the November
24th Geneva agreement, Obama administration officials have argued that
the temporary sanctions relief package in this agreement is very limited
and will benefit the Iranian economy by no more than $7 billion. Indeed,
it is likely to have a more substantial impact on Iran based on what was
described above. The value of oil revenues that can now be repatriated
legally can be more than this amount by itself. The increased economic
activity and job creation in the auto and petrochemical industries (and
thousands of associated small industries) can also be substantial. The
International Monetary Fund reported Iran's economic output (GDP at PPP
levels) at $988 billion in 2012 and $987 billion in 2013. This lack
of growth was mainly a result of the international sanctions and bad
economic policies during the final years of Ahmadinejad. During
2000-2011, this measure of economic activity grew by an average of 7.7%
per year (see the chart above). The sanctions relief package and the investor
optimism that it has generated can return the Iranian economy to this
trend growth rate in 2014 if the government adopts a sound economic
policy. Even if we adopt a cautious projection and assume that Iran will
be able to experience a 5% annual growth rate in the first half of 2014,
then the value of the sanction relief package will be approximately $24.5
billion. The significant value of Iran's gain from the sanctions relief
package is likely to increases the Iranian government's desire to fulfill
its obligations and work toward a permanent agreement." http://t.uani.com/18WGlZN
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment