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TOP STORIES
Iran can enrich uranium up to 20
percent within four days, its atomic energy chief said on Tuesday, a
comment apparently aimed at showing Tehran could quickly expand its
enrichment program if its nuclear deal with world powers
collapses. Iran's 2015 accord with world powers caps the level
to which it is able to enrich uranium to 3.67 percent purity, well
below the 20 percent it was reaching before the deal, and the roughly
90 percent suitable for a nuclear weapon.
US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo on Tuesday accused Iran of posing a missile threat after
Tehran defied his warnings and tried to put a satellite into orbit,
albeit unsuccessfully. Pompeo renewed his charge that the launch
defied UN Security Council resolution 2231 of 2015, which endorsed an
international agreement, from which the United States has withdrawn,
on ending Iran's nuclear weapons. "In defiance of the
international community & UNSCR 2231, Iran's regime fired off a
space launch vehicle today," Pompeo tweeted.
Prosecutors in Germany say an
army employee has been detained on suspicion of spying for the
Iranian intelligence service. The federal prosecutor's office said in
a statement that the 50-year-old German-Afghan dual citizen, whose
name was only given as Abdul Hamid S. in line with German privacy
rules, was detained Tuesday in the Rhineland in western Germany. He
worked as a translator for the German army and is accused of having
passed on information to the Iranian intelligence service.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The latest news to rattle the Washington establishment
is that John Bolton, President Donald Trump's national security
adviser, has asked the Pentagon for military options against Iran.
The commentariat and the Democrats in exile are aghast, and insist
that such bellicosity will only invite belligerence from Iran. Many
former Obama administration officials fear that Bolton's truculence
may lead Iran to resume its nuclear program. But the truth is that
when dealing with Iran, threats usually work while blandishments only
whet the appetite of the mullahs who run the country.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
An Iranian satellite-carrying
rocket blasted off into space Tuesday, but scientists failed to put
the device into orbit in a launch criticized by the United States as
helping the Islamic Republic further develop its ballistic missile
program. After the launch, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo repeated
his allegation that Iran's space program could help it develop a
missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon to the mainland U.S.,
criticism that comes amid the Trump administration's maximalist
approach against Tehran after withdrawing from the nuclear deal.
The Iranians say they are
getting ready to fight, a reaction to the austerity imposed by new
U.S. sanctions that is causing domestic instability. It may be a
bluff, but the threats are real. The head of Iran's nuclear program
said Sunday that his organization "is on the threshold" of
a more efficient way to produce enriched nuclear fuel, something Iran
promised not to do in the 2015 nuclear freeze agreement with the
United States and five other major signatories. Enriched nuclear fuel
is a feed stock for nuclear weapons.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
The Trump administration is
leaving itself wiggle room to continue allowing Iran to export oil,
potentially setting up another catalyst for lower crude prices later
this year. The administration's special representative for Iran,
Brian Hook, last weekend refused to say with certainty whether the
White House will enforce sanctions more strictly on the Islamic
Republic's oil exports. Instead, he left the door open to extending
exemptions that have allowed some of Iran's biggest customers to
continue importing its crude.
India's soymeal sales to Iran
are set to spike as the oil producer uses the rupees it receives for
its crude exports to cover its animal feed demand amid U.S. sanctions
that have crimped the country's ability to import
necessities. Iran has agreed to sell crude oil to India, the
world's third-largest oil consumer, in exchange for rupees after
sanctions imposed by the United States blocked its access to the
global financial system.
The U.S. government is planning
on taking a tougher line on Iran in the months ahead, redoubling its
efforts to cut Iran's oil exports down to zero. Brian Hook, the State
Department's special representative for Iran, boasted earlier this
week about the U.S.' success in curtailing Iran's oil exports to
date. In an interview with Bloomberg, Hook noted that when the Trump
administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal last May, Iran was
exporting 2.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). Now, he says, Iran's exports
are down near or below 1 mb/d.
India will not share the limited
supply of Iranian crude allowed under a US waiver from sanctions with
private refiners, according to the sources. The government has
asked its four state refiners led by Indian Oil Corp. to share the
entire 9 millions barrels of Iranian oil available every month under
a 180-day waiver from US sanctions, the people said, asking not
to be identified.
MISSILE PROGRAM
An Iranian satellite launch
failed yesterday after its rocket left the atmosphere, Tehran
said after launching the spacecraft despite criticism from the United
States. It is the first of two satellites Iranian leaders said they
were planning to launch. The second satellite is "waiting for
orbit," per Iran's telecommunications minister. Experts had
expected the flights to take place sometime in the first eleven days
of February, as Iran celebrates a national holiday linked to the 40th
anniversary of the Islamic revolution in 1979.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
How does it feel when your wife is on hunger strike? It
is fine to support their right to do it in theory. It feels different
as the days roll on. Nazanin and I had a long autumn. She regularly
despaired that nothing was moving, warned that she couldn't cope
anymore stuck in an unjust imprisonment while governments haggled.
She threatened a hunger strike as a last resort. I kept getting her
to postpone, saying that we weren't at last resort yet. That got us
past Christmas and even her 1,000 days.
UN human rights experts urged
Iran on Wednesday to grant urgently needed medical attention to two
detainees, including British-Iranian national Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who launched a hunger strike over a lack of care.
The six UN experts also appealed on behalf of Iranian human rights
activist Narges Mohammadi, who was arrested in 2015 and jailed for 10
years for "forming and managing an illegal group" and who
has joined Zaghari-Ratcliffe's hunger strike.
The Iranian ambassador to
Britain has rejected Jeremy Hunt's pleas to free Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe. The Foreign Secretary summoned Hamid Baeidinejad
over the case for the first time on Monday to complain about a lack
of medical treatment for Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 41. The ambassador
said little to Mr Hunt at the time, but later denounced Britain for
'meddling in Iran's internal affairs'.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
The Iranian Embassy in Beirut
says recent comments by visiting U.S. officials are a blatant interference
in other people's business and an attempt to dictate orders. The rare
statement referred to comments made by U.S. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo during a regional tour and those by David Hale, the U.S.
undersecretary of state for political affairs on a visit to Lebanon.
Both vowed to step up efforts to counter Iran's activities around the
region and expel from Syria "every last Iranian boot."
The English-language arm of
Iran's state television broadcaster is reporting that its prominent
American-born news anchor was arrested after flying into the United
States. Press TV broke into its broadcast on Wednesday to report that
Marzieh Hashemi, born Melanie Franklin of New Orleans, was arrested
after arriving at St. Louis Lambert International Airport on Sunday.
The broadcaster, citing her family, said Hashemi was taken into FBI custody
and brought to the Washington area.
A day after a senior U.S. envoy
pressed Lebanese officials on the actions of Hezbollah, the Iranian
Embassy in Beirut Tuesday criticized Washington for its "blatant
intervention" in Lebanon and the region.
As tensions increase on the
Israeli-Lebanese border following the discovery of
Hezbollah-built tunnels last month and with President Donald Trump
announcing a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, the possibility is
growing that a confrontation with Iran may move from Syria to
Lebanon. Lebanon is increasingly viewed within the prism of
containing Iranian influence, mainly as an arena to pushback on
Iran's key nonstate ally Hezbollah.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Forty years ago today, Iran's
then-shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, fled the country after a 37-year
reign, in the first stage of a revolution that would replace 2,500
years of monarchy with an Islamic republic. Prior to the revolution,
Iran very much resembled Western countries, with a flourishing
economy and tourists flocking to the country for its breath-taking
landscapes, beaches and various activities, including hiking and
skiing.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
The Iran-backed Houthi militias
in Yemen expressed on Tuesday their regret at accepting the
conditions of the Sweden ceasefire deal on Hodeidah that was reached
in December. A minister in the Houthis' illegitimate government,
Hassan Zeid, said that the militias committed a "strategic
error" in agreeing to the deal because they lost several
humanitarian cards that they were exploiting for their interests
before the international community and United Nations.
Iran will keep military forces
in Syria, the head of the elite Revolutionary Guards said on
Wednesday, defying Israeli threats that they might be targeted if
they do not leave the country. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israeli forces would continue to
attack Iranians in Syria unless they quickly get out of there.
Israel needs to prepare for the
possibility that its battle to keep Iran from entrenching itself
militarily in Syria may have to be expanded to Lebanon or to Iran
directly, according to an assessment by the Institute for National
Security (INSS). That is one of the recommendations that appeared in
INSS's Strategic Assessment for Israel 2018-2019 that was released
and rolled out by the Tel Aviv-based think tank at a ceremony at Beit
Hanasi on Wednesday.
IRAQ & IRAN
Iranian officials traveled to
Baghdad this week to push for expanded trade and energy ties as it
tries to undercut U.S. efforts to weaken Iraq's economic links to its
neighbor. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is in Iraq this week
with a delegation of more than 50 companies. The visit comes a week
after Iranian energy officials traveled to Baghdad to discuss
strengthening energy links and keeping Iranian natural gas flowing to
Iraq, where it accounts for over 40% of the country's electricity
needs.
"Zarif maneuvering in Baghdad." That's how pro-Reform
daily Etemad described a four-day visit by Iran's Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to neighboring Iraq. The top Iranian
diplomat, accompanied by a large delegation comprising over 100
business leaders, attended a conference in Baghdad with their Iraqi
counterparts to discuss trade. The Iranian foreign minister
gave assurances to the participants that US sanctions will not affect
bilateral business.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
German police have arrested a 50-year-old Afghan-German
man suspected of passing military secrets to Iran. Federal
prosecutors named the army linguist only as Abdul Hamid S. He is
understood to have known details of German military operations in
Afghanistan. Prosecutors said he was suspected of "having passed
on his knowledge to an Iranian intelligence service".
US Undersecretary of State for
Political Affairs David Hale has not invited Lebanon to the Warsaw
global conference expected in Poland on February 13 and 14 to discuss
issues related to the Middle East and means to counter Iran's power
in the region. Observers believe that Washington decided to omit
Lebanon over the sensitivity of the matter.
Following a wave of terror plots
on European soil, the EU has finally woken up to the growing threat
Iran poses to global security. Last week, it announced new measures
against Tehran - yet when compared with the robust sanctions regime
Washington has implemented in recent months, Brussels' response is
hardly likely to cause the Iranian clerics any sleepless nights. The
sanctions come after a series of Iranian-sponsored plots that have
been uncovered in Europe since the signing of the controversial
nuclear deal with Tehran in 2015.
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