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Top Stories
WSJ:
"Negotiations between Iran and the United Nations' nuclear watchdog
appeared to break down over the issue of inspections Friday, imperiling
hopes for a broader diplomatic effort to end the international standoff
peacefully. The talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy
Agency were widely seen as a precursor to a gathering of international
powers in Moscow on June 18-19. Friday's outcome fueled concerns in
Washington and Brussels that the second, more far-reaching, international
push to curb Tehran's nuclear work is stagnating. Underscoring the gloom,
diplomats from the two sides have failed in recent days even to agree on
a formal agenda for the Moscow talks. And no new date has been set for
another discussion of IAEA inspections. 'After today's meeting, without
any progress, there were some setbacks,' the IAEA's director general,
Yukiya Amano, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal shortly
after the talks concluded. 'I cannot be in an optimistic mood.'" http://t.uani.com/LDpa2f
Reuters:
"Iran's state finances have come under unprecedented pressure and
the resilience of ordinary people is being tested by soaring inflation as
oil income plummets due to tightening Western sanctions and sharply
falling oil prices. Tough financial measures imposed by Washington and
Brussels have made it ever more difficult to pay for and ship oil from
Iran. Its oil output has sunk to the lowest in 20 years, cutting revenue
that is vital to fund a sprawling state apparatus. Already down by more
than a quarter, or about 600,000 barrels per day, from rates of 2.2
million bpd last year, shipments of crude oil from Iran are expected to
drop further when a European Union oil embargo takes effect on July 1.
Tehran is already estimated to have lost more than $10 billion in oil
revenues this year. Causing even more pain, oil prices fell below $100 a
barrel last week to a 16-month low amid a darkening outlook for economies
in Europe, the United States and China. 'This is an act of economic
warfare. The sanctions are having a big effect in cumulative terms: Iran
is being locked out of the global financial system,' said Mehdi Varzi, a
former official at the National Iranian Oil Co." http://t.uani.com/KeEVfx
Reuters:
"Indian state-owned refiners will halt planned oil imports of
173,000 barrels per day from Iran when European sanctions take effect in
July, unless the government permits them to use insurance and freight
arranged by Tehran, industry sources said. India is the world's
fourth-largest oil importer and second biggest customer of the OPEC
member nation, but domestic shippers have refused to transport the oil
because of a lack of cover, the sources said. Unlike private refiners,
India's state-run companies need government permission to import oil on a
Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) basis as federal policy requires
refiners to favor Indian insurers and shippers by buying only on a Free
on Board (FOB) basis. But Indian shipping firms say they will not lift
Iranian cargoes from July as an emergency plan by state insurers to
provide limited cover for Iran voyages has been delayed while the
insurance regulator requests more details." http://t.uani.com/KnqQ0A
Nuclear
Program
Reuters:
"Lack of progress in talks between Iran and the International Atomic
Energy Agency is disappointing and it shows Tehran's continued failure to
abide by its commitment to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, a U.S. envoy said
on Saturday. The IAEA and Iran failed at talks on Friday to unblock an
investigation into suspected atom bomb research by the Islamic state, a
setback dimming any chances for success in higher-level negotiations
between Tehran and major powers later this month... 'We're disappointed,'
Robert Wood, the acting U.S. envoy to the IAEA, told Reuters in an
emailed comment. 'Yesterday's outcome highlights Iran's continued failure
to abide by its commitment to the IAEA, and further underscores the need
for it to work with the IAEA to address international community's real
concerns,' he said." http://t.uani.com/Li0Nmn
AP:
"Iran and six world powers seeking to coax Tehran into curbing its
nuclear activities appear to be coming to talks later this month without
resolving the differences that scuttled previous rounds, according to recent
letters exchanged between the two sides. One letter, shared with The
Associated Press on Friday, shows Iran seeking an expert-level meeting
ahead of the June 18-19 Moscow negotiations to 'prepare the necessary
ground for the Moscow talks.' In response, a senior European Union
representative speaking for the six powers suggests there is no need for
such preliminary talks because the six remain committed to their
'straightforward proposal' presented at the last meeting in Baghdad. Her
letter instead urges Tehran to embrace that proposal, which offers a mix
of incentives if Tehran reduces uranium enrichment, which can generate
weapons-grade material as well as nuclear fuel." http://t.uani.com/Lup9v8
AFP:
"Iran on Sunday hit out at a perceived lack of willingness by world
powers to engage it ahead of crucial nuclear talks to take place in
Moscow on June 18 and 19, according to reports. Ali Bagheri, deputy to
Iran's top negotiator Saeed Jalili, said in a letter to Helga Schmid,
deputy to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, that he was
'surprised' by issues she was raising in correspondence with him. He also
complained that preparatory groundwork by experts from both sides was
needed before the talks. The letter, whose Farsi translation was made public
by several Iranian news agencies, showed the gulf that exists between
Iran and the so-called P5+1 group (the United States, Britain, France,
Germany, Russia and China) going into the negotiations." http://t.uani.com/MuEAkU
AFP:
"'The only path' for world powers holding talks with Iran on its
nuclear activities is to accept Tehran's position, a top military
representative for the country's supreme leader said on Sunday, according
to the Mehr news agency. 'Unfortunately, the P5+1 logic, especially that of
America, is of bullying, which is in no way acceptable to our people and
officials,' said Ali Saeedi, a senior figure in Iran's powerful
Revolutionary Guards who acts as agent for supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei." http://t.uani.com/LQr4GZ
AP:
"Iran's president says Iran has no intention of building nuclear
weapons, but fear would not deter it if it decided to make them. Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's comments suggest a toughening of Iran's position ahead of
June 18-19 talks with world powers over Tehran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/MBRyks
YnetNews:
"Russia's government-run weapons manufacturer is supplying equipment
for Iran's missile program, intelligence documents recently presented to
the US Congress indicate. According to intelligence estimates, this does
not represent official cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, but rather
demonstrates the inability of the Russian government to prevent state
firms from engaging in illegal trade with the Islamic Republic. The
Russian firm in question is Rosoboronexport, which supplied Iran with
defensive missile systems in 2006 and continues to maintain business ties
with Iran in the missile sector." http://t.uani.com/LsEtZb
WSJ:
"Yukiya Amano, director general of the United Nations' International
Atomic Energy Agency, spoke exclusively with The Wall Street Journal in
Vienna on Friday following the agency's talks with Iran. Here are
excerpts of the interview." http://t.uani.com/KLJajN
Sanctions
Bloomberg:
"The fewest supertankers in at least eight months were headed for
Iran as the deadline neared for a Europe Union embargo against the
nation's oil, ship-tracking data showed. The Daylam, owned by
Tehran-based NITC Co., was the only very large crude carrier signaling a
future destination in Iran, according to IHS Inc. data compiled by
Bloomberg. That's the fewest ships since at least October, based on a
weekly snapshot of the global fleet's movements. The latest signals from
23 NITC tankers are more than a week old, data showed. International
tanker owners are avoiding Iran because carrying the country's crude will
cause them to lose insurance under EU sanctions taking full effect July
1. Iran is under pressure to stop a nuclear program that the U.S. and
Europe suspect involves weapons development and will export 1.2 million
barrels a day starting next month, down from 2.2 million last year,
Barclays Plc estimates." http://t.uani.com/Oi7ac7
Reuters:
"Turkey steeply reduced its imports of Iranian crude oil in May,
bowing to international pressure ahead of planned EU and U.S. sanctions,
shipping data seen by Reuters showed. The figures show Turkey, the
world's fifth-largest buyer of Iranian oil in 2011, is holding to its
pledge to cut imports from the Islamic Republic after buying and
stockpiling more Iranian oil from January through April than it did last
year. Before May, Turkey was the only buyer in Europe to increase
purchases from Iran, while other European refiners cut back on imports of
the crude ahead of an impending EU oil embargo due to take effect from
July 1... In the first four months of 2012, Turkey imported 210,000
barrels per day of Iranian oil on average, including a huge 270,000 bpd
in March, much higher than its 2011 average of 185,000 bpd. In May
Turkey's state-controlled refining company, Tupras, imported around
140,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 20 percent drop from its 2011 average,
according to the latest shipping data, obtained by Reuters." http://t.uani.com/JX2qoA
Bloomberg:
"Japan's Cabinet approved a bill to provide sovereign insurance to
tanker operators that import Iranian oil before the full implementation
of European Union sanctions against the Persian Gulf nation. The
government plans to take over coverage for ship owners and petroleum
refiners because they will lose access to Europe's reinsurance market
after the 27-member EU embargo goes into effect July 1, the transport
ministry said today in a statement. The full EU ban covers Iranian crude
exports and insuring shipments of the oil." http://t.uani.com/MBULAo
WSJ:
"Iran and other states are expected to press Saudi Arabia to scale
back its record output when OPEC meets next week in Vienna, or face the
risk of a new oil-price collapse. Much has changed since the group last
met in December and managed to put aside its differences to agree to
collectively produce 30 million barrels a day. For one thing, oil prices
in London have fallen below $100 a barrel as the world economic outlook
has worsened. For another, world powers have raised the pressure on
Iran's nuclear program while urging Saudi Arabia to pump more oil to make
up for any Iranian shortfall. The combination of these factors has sown
discord in OPEC, with several members fretting over the current output
level. Yet despite the rhetoric, few analysts expect OPEC to make
dramatic shifts next week." http://t.uani.com/KvEcBy
Commerce
Bloomberg:
"Iran may award OAO Russian Railways, the country's rail monopoly a
new contract worth about $250 million after the state-run company
completed a link between Tebriz and Azarshahr, RIA Novosti reported,
citing the head of the Russian Railways unit doing the work." http://t.uani.com/KnmUgq
Human Rights
NYT:
"When Ebrahim Noroozi attended his first hanging, he left the scene
covering his ears to shield them from the roar of the crowds. In the far
distance, the body of Yaghoob Ali Jafari - who in 2010 stabbed a love
rival to death in broad daylight - dangled on a rope from a crane. Police
officers had just told the Iranian photographer that he wasn't allowed to
take pictures of one of the first public hangings in Tehran in many
years. So Mr. Noroozi, a bearlike man with a soft voice, decided not stay
a minute longer... When restrictions on documenting executions were
lifted by Iranian authorities last year, the photographer set out to
cover several hangings in different cities in the Islamic Republic, which
after China passes the most death sentences in the world... Executions
are very public events in Iran, with authorities setting up building
cranes at the scene of the crime or on the central square of the city
where the crime took place. The executions are the highest form of
punishment in Iran law, which is based on Islamic jurisprudence, which
allows victims of crimes to demand retribution, but also to pardon
victims." http://t.uani.com/KLLJm5
AFP:
"Iran's cyber police force is poised to launch a new crackdown on
software that lets many Iranians circumvent the regime's Internet
censorship, media reported on Sunday. The operation will target VPNs, or
Virtual Private Networks, which use a secure protocol to encrypt users'
data, foiling online blocks put in place by Iran's authorities, according
to the head of the specialised police unit, Kamal Hadianfar. 'It has been
agreed that a commission (within the cyber police) be formed to block
illegal VPNs,' he was quoted as saying in a report originally published
by the Mehr news agency. 'About 20 to 30 percent of (Iranian internet)
users use VPN,' or more than seven million people out of the country's 36
million web users, he added." http://t.uani.com/NsEcbF
AFP:
"Women in Iran are being banned from watching live public screenings
of Euro 2012 football games because of an 'inappropriate' environment
where men could become rowdy, a deputy police commander said Sunday. 'It
is an inappropriate situation when men and women watch football in
(movie) theatres together,' said Bahman Kargar, Iran's deputy police
commander in charge of social affairs, according to the ISNA news agency.
'Men, while watching football, get excited and sometimes utter vulgar
curses or tell dirty jokes,' he said. 'It is not within the dignity of
women to watch football with men. Women should thank the police' for the
ban." http://t.uani.com/LhfciO
Domestic
Politics
Bloomberg:
"Iranian authorities increased the price of traditional breads by as
much as 33 percent in the capital, Tehran, the official Islamic Republic
News Agency reported, citing a Tehran province official. A Sangak loaf
will now cost 6,000 rials (49 cents), said Nematollah Torki Tehran's
governor deputy for planning. Barbari, Taftoun and Lavash loaves will
cost 5,000, 3,000 and 1,600 rials respectively, he said in the report
published late yesterday. The new prices will apply in Tehran bakeries
from today, he said, according to the report. The government previously
increased bread prices in April 2011 when the price of a Sangak loaf was
fixed at 5,000 rials, Barbari at 3,750 rials and Taftoun and Lavash
loaves at 2,500 and 1,250 rials respectively." http://t.uani.com/LsDZSR
Reuters:
"Veteran Iranian politician Mohsen Rezaie, who lost to Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad in a disputed 2009 presidential poll that sparked protests,
became the first person to declare his candidacy for next year, Iran's
ILNA news agency reported on Sunday. Rezaie initially filed formal
complaints over the official results of the 2009 vote, but later withdrew
them. At the time, he criticised the authorities for their handling of
the election and the demonstrations that followed it, saying that the
Islamic Republic could face collapse unless it embraced change. 'My
participation in the upcoming presidential election of the Republic is
certain. I'm in it to win it,' Rezaie, a former commander of the elite
Revolutionary Guards, was quoted by ILNA as saying at a meeting in the
capital Tehran." http://t.uani.com/KvDOmx
Opinion &
Analysis
Jackson Diehl in
WashPost: "From one point of view the connection
between our troubles with Syria and Iran is pretty straightforward. The
Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad is Iran's closest ally, and its link to
the Arab Middle East. Syria has provided the land bridge for the
transport of Iranian weapons and militants to Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Without Syria, Iran's pretensions to regional hegemony, and its ability
to challenge Israel, would be crippled. It follows that, as the U.S.
Central Command chief Gen. James N. Mattis testified to Congress in
March, the downfall of Assad would be 'the biggest strategic setback for
Iran in 25 years.' Making it happen is not just a humanitarian imperative
after the slaughter of more than 10,000 civilians, but a prime strategic
interest of Israel and the United States... But the calculus about Syria
and Iran is also more complicated than it looks at first. The two are not
just linked by their alliance, but also by the fact that the United
States and its allies have defined a distinct and urgent goal for each of
them. In Syria, it is to remove Assad and replace him with a democracy;
in Iran it is to prevent a nuclear weapon. It turns out that the steps
that might achieve success in one theater only complicate Western
strategy in the other... At the root of this trouble are confused and
conflicting U.S. aims in the Middle East. Does Washington want to
overthrow the brutal, hostile and closely allied dictatorships of Assad and
Iran's Ali Khamenei - or strike bargains that contain the threats they
pose? The answer is neither, and both: The Obama administration says it
is seeking regime change in Syria, but in Iran it has defined the goal as
rapproachment with the mullahs in exchange for nuclear arms control.
Obama tries to square this circle by pursuing a multilateral diplomatic
approach to both countries. But if regime change in Syria is the goal,
Security Council resolutions and six-point plans from the likes of Kofi
Annan are doomed to failure. Only a combination of economic and military
pressure, by Assad's opposition or outsiders, will cause his regime to
fold. A collapse, in turn, could undermine the same Iranian regime with
which Obama is seeking a bargain. So it's no wonder Tehran sought to add
Syria to the topics for discussion at the last session of negotiations -
or that Annan wants to include Iran in a new 'contact group' to broker a
settlement in Syria." http://t.uani.com/KvuXmP
Nikolas Gvosdev in
WPR: "As international negotiators prepare for the
next round of talks with Iran over its nuclear program, scheduled in
Moscow for June 18-19, the United States faces a 21st century version of
a 'Stevenson moment.' In 1962, in a forceful presentation backed by
compelling photographic evidence at the United Nations, Ambassador Adlai
Stevenson made the case that the Soviet Union was installing nuclear
weapons in Cuba. In addressing Soviet Ambassador Valentin Zorin in the
chamber of the Security Council, Stevenson pointedly declared, 'Let me
say something to you, Mr. Ambassador. We do have the evidence. We have
it, and it is clear, and it is incontrovertible.' When it comes to Iran,
however, there is no equivalent of the clear and compelling evidence
Stevenson was able to produce. Moreover, the credibility of the U.S.
intelligence community is no longer sterling when it comes to such
matters. In 2003, in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, then-Secretary
of State Colin Powell was able to take a series of devious Iraqi actions
that suggested deception and subterfuge and, with the addition of
evidence that was later proven to be unreliable or even fabricated, build
a case for an Iraqi weapons of mass destruction program. Yet after the
subsequent invasion, the United States did not find the 'retroactive
evidence,' as Charles Krauthammer called it, that would have validated
the prewar arguments. As a result, Washington has long found it more
difficult to argue that Iran's lack of compliance with the International
Atomic Energy Agency combined with its failure to disclose all of its
atomic assets is itself ipso facto proof that Tehran is actively
developing nuclear weapons. This is why Russian President Vladimir
Putin's statements to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the
sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Beijing are
so interesting. Putin told Ahmadinejad, 'We have always supported the
right of the Iranian people to modern technologies, including the
peaceful use of atomic energy. But I want to emphasize that it is
peaceful we are talking about. You know our position.' At first glance,
this position exposes a major chasm with the preferred U.S. position,
which is for Iran to have no nuclear program at all, or at least not to
have indigenous capabilities such as the ability to enrich uranium. But
Putin's willingness, in Beijing, to stress the importance of Iran's
program being for peaceful use only is important, as is his explanation
of what is informing Russia's policy. 'We are very strong supporters of
the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons,' he said to Ahmadinejad. 'But we
know your position and the position of the Iranian leadership, which is
that Iran is not working on the creation of a nuclear weapon. We are
proceeding based on this.' Here then is the opening for a Stevenson
moment. Russia may be willing to allow Iran to develop its civilian
nuclear infrastructure, itself problematic for the United States because
it allows Iran to maintain, in reserve, a 'breakout capability.' But
Moscow continues to publicly draw the line at any effort on the part of
Iran to weaponize nuclear technology or to take the technical steps that
would be needed to convert conventional weapons platforms, including
missiles, into platforms capable of delivering nuclear arms. If, at the
Moscow talks, the U.S. and other Western countries were able to deliver
convincing proof that Iran's program is geared toward weaponization,
Russia, China, India and other states would likely withdraw their support
for Iran's right to nuclear technology. The problem, of course, is that
the United States has been unable to deliver convincing proof of
weaponization at the level of certainty that these other states demand,
and it seems unlikely that such evidence will be available for the next
round of talks either." http://t.uani.com/KYPGTU
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive
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discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please
email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
United Against Nuclear
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commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
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