Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Eye on Iran: Deterioration in U.S.-Russian Relations May Disrupt Coming Talks With Iran








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NYT: "Tensions between the West and Russia over events in Ukraine have cast a shadow over the second round of talks set to begin on Tuesday in Vienna on a permanent nuclear agreement with Iran. Although the talks have no direct connection to Ukraine, their success hinges on solidarity among the so-called P5-plus-one countries - the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, which include Russia, plus Germany - in favor of a tough agreement with Iran to drastically scale back its nuclear program. If Russia signals that its cooperation with the West has weakened, that will reduce pressure on Iran to make concessions, said experts knowledgeable about the talks, which began last month with three days of meetings involving senior diplomats from each of the governments involved... 'If President Putin goes ahead with his apparent intention to annex Crimea, we're going to have to sanction Russia, and they are going to have to retaliate, and it's really going to screw up the P5-plus-one negotiations with Iran,' said Gary Samore, a former senior aide on nonproliferation on the National Security Council in President Obama's first term. He is now executive director for research at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, as well as the president of United Against Nuclear Iran, a group that advocates strong sanctions against Iran until the nuclear dispute is resolved. 'The problem will be that Iran will feel much less pressured to make any concessions if they think the P5-plus-one are squabbling,' Mr. Samore said. 'The Iranians will be watching and waiting; they are not inclined to make any concessions anyway, but they are going to be less inclined until there is a resolution' of the situation in Ukraine." http://t.uani.com/1dkNvU0

Reuters: "Iran and six world powers sought on Tuesday to make headway toward resolving their decade-old nuclear dispute, with Western officials expressing hope talks would not be further complicated by the Ukraine crisis... The March 18-19 meeting between Iran and the powers - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany - began a day after Washington and the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian officials over events in Crimea... As in previous meetings, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov represented Russia at the talks - which started around 10:30 a.m. (0930 GMT) and are likely to end late on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1l09jwn

JPost: "A significant majority of US Senate members have signed a letter to US President Barack Obama outlining terms of a final agreement on Iran's nuclear program they would find acceptable. Eighty-two senators - 41 Republicans and 41 Democrats - say they hope diplomatic efforts with Iran succeed in Vienna over the next four months - but also call for the 'rapid and dramatic' expansion of sanctions if negotiations fail. The letter began circulating less than two weeks ago, and has attracted 76 signatories since its release. Senate aides told The Jerusalem Post the letter will be sent to the White House early this week. A source with a pro-Israel organization characterized the letter's message as 'a very significant statement of Senate policy in that it specifies the core principles in final agreement.' ... 'We believe that Iran has no inherent right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,' the letter reads. 'We believe any agreement must dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program and prevent it from ever having a uranium or plutonium path to a nuclear bomb.' The letter also calls for the closure of Fordow, Arak and Parchin - key facilities in Iran's nuclear program - in its list of demands." http://t.uani.com/1d9XO2X
     
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AFP: "A senior US administration official involved in the talks said last week that diplomats 'hoped that the incredibly difficult situation in Ukraine will not create issues for this negotiation'. But Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US State Department official now at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the unfolding crisis made him 'even more pessimistic' about prospects for a deal with Iran. 'The Russians will... be less likely to make sacrifices for the sake of unity over the Iran issues,' Fitzpatrick told AFP. The Iranians, he said, 'now have more reason to wait out the six powers'. Even before the Ukraine crisis erupted, Russian President Vladimir Putin was reported to be discussing a major deal with Tehran whereby Moscow would get Iranian oil in exchange for money, goods and help in building new nuclear reactors. This would undermine Washington's efforts to cut off Iran's main source of revenue -- a strategy which the US credits with forcing Tehran to the negotiating table in the first place. Mark Hibbs from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said this 'huge barter deal' is a 'carrot Moscow can dangle constructively to wrestle more concessions from Iran.' 'Or it can move forward unilaterally and damage the negotiation,' Hibbs told AFP. 'Up to Putin to choose.'" http://t.uani.com/1lKTvux

Reuters: "Iran has pursued a longstanding effort to buy banned components for its nuclear and missile programmes in recent months, a U.S. official said, a period when it struck an interim deal with major powers to limit its disputed atomic activity. Vann Van Diepen, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for international security and non-proliferation, added that a Chinese businessman indicted in the United States in 2009 over sales of missile parts to Iran continued to supply such items despite U.S. pressure on China to tighten export controls. Reuters was unable to reach the Chinese businessman, identified as Li Fangwei and also known as Karl Lee, for comment, as the mobile phone he previously used appeared to be out of service despite numerous calls made to it. Contacted by Reuters on Feb 4, 2013, for an earlier story about his business, Li said he continued to get commercial inquiries from Iran but only for legitimate merchandise. Li said his metals company, LIMMT, had stopped selling to Iran once the United States began sanctioning the firm several years ago... In 2009, the New York County District Attorney unsealed a fraud indictment against Li and LIMMT on suspicion they had used false names to process payments for sales to Iran through several U.S. banks. In February 2013, Washington imposed fresh sanctions on Li for further alleged supplies to Iran." http://t.uani.com/1d9Vyc7

Reuters: "Israel's defense minister has accused the United States of projecting weakness internationally and said Israel could not rely on its main ally to take the lead in confronting Iran over its nuclear program... 'We had thought it would be the United States that would lead the campaign against Iran,' said Yaalon, who pointed to the Ukraine crisis as an example of Washington 'showing weakness'... Yaalon said that although 'people know Iran cheats', the United States and other nations chose to negotiate with Tehran on restricting activities they fear are aimed at developing atomic arms. 'Therefore, on this matter, we have to behave as though we have nobody to look out for us but ourselves,' Yaalon said, echoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's veiled threats of unilateral military action against Iran if diplomacy fails... 'Comfortable Westerners prefer to put off confrontation, if possible to next year or the next leadership term. But in the end, it will blow up,' Yaalon said." http://t.uani.com/1cV1CES

Cyber Warfare

CSM: "As high-level international talks in Vienna over Iran's nuclear program edged closer to a deal last fall, something curious happened - massive cyber-attacks that had hammered Wall Street bank websites repeatedly for about a year slowed to a near stop. While banking industry officials were relieved, others wondered why those Iran-linked 'distributed denial of service' attacks that had so regularly flooded bank websites with bogus Internet traffic were shut off like a faucet. One likely reason, say US experts on cyber-conflict: to reduce friction, at least temporarily, at the Vienna nuclear talks. Yet, even as the 'distributed denial of service' attacks abated for apparently diplomatic reasons, overall Iranian cyber-spying on US military and energy corporation networks has surged, these experts say. Iran was fingered last fall, for instance, for infiltrating the US Navy Marine Corps Intranet. It then took the Navy nearly four months to root out the Iranian hackers infesting its largest unclassified computer network, the Wall Street Journal reported in February. This litany of Iranian activity is evidence, say experts, that after years as a cyber also-ran, Iran is morphing swiftly into a major threat in the rapidly evolving era of cyber-conflict. That shift is causing a growing recognition - from the halls of the US intelligence community to the cyber-security firms protecting corporate America - that Iran has vaulted into the ranks of the world's top-10 offensive cyber-powers." http://t.uani.com/OyaGUL

Sanctions Relief

WSJ: "Iran's oil exports surged in February, a top oil official in Tehran said, as a thaw in the country's relations with the West have helped to improve its economy. However, that level of exports-if sustained-could breach the terms of the interim deal on Iran's nuclear program reached with global powers late last year. Mansour Moazami, Iran's deputy oil minister for planning and supervision of hydrocarbon resources, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that 'we exported 1.6 million barrels a day' of oil on average in February, including 1.3 million barrels a day of crude oil and the rest natural-gas liquids. The deputy minister's numbers suggest Iran's total oil exports are now one third higher than the 1.2 million barrels a day of oil it said it was exporting in early December, not long after it signed the nuclear deal with six leading nations, including the U.S. The figure is also significantly higher than an estimate made last week by the International Energy Agency, which pegged Iran's exports at 1.41 million barrels a day in February. The energy watchdog, which relies on non-Iranian sources such as disclosures from importing countries and news reports, frequently revises its estimate for Iran's exports. Asked if shipments would rise further in March, Mr. Moazami said 'I think so.' Foreign traders and shipping trackers say Asian buyers have boosted imports of Iranian oil as the political risk of doing so has decreased." http://t.uani.com/1d9TTDb

Reuters: "Iran exported more crude than allowed under Western sanctions for at least a fourth straight month in February, as ship loading data obtained by Reuters showed top clients again bought more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Tehran's oil... In total, February crude loadings by Iran's top four buyers - China, India, Japan and South Korea - rose to 1.16 million bpd versus 994,669 bpd lifted in January, according to a loading plan seen by Reuters. Adding in oil lifted by Turkey - which came in at 105,824 bpd in January and 117,857 bpd in February - Tehran's exports have busted the sanctions limits at least since November. The loading volumes exclude condensate, a light oil, that Iran exports to China and other consumers." http://t.uani.com/1cUXqVJ

Trend: "Chinese CITIC Company has signed a memorandum of understanding with the municipality of Iran's Eastern Azerbaijan province's capital city Tabriz for implementation of a tram project, Iranian Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper reported on March 18. The deputy governor of East Azerbaijan province, Mohammad Sadeq Pour Mahdi, Tabriz mayor, Sadeq Najafi and some members of Tabriz city council as well as top managers of the Chinese party attended the memorandum signing ceremony in Tabriz. Pointing to the achievements of his official trip to China and his meetings with some important Chinese companies, Najafi underlined the establishment of the first tram of the country and city as the most important part of the signed agreement and also highlighted the importance of cooperation with Chinese CITIC company in metro and electric bus projects to reduce the traffic and pollution problems of Tabriz in the near future." http://t.uani.com/1l08nrK

Trend: "Iranian telecommunications minister Mahmoud Vaezi has criticized Samsung for cutting the access to Samsung's mobile app store for Iranian users, ISNA reported on March 16. Mahmoud Vaezi said Samsung should resolve the problem as soon as possible. Representative of Samsung in Iran has pledged to resume the service as of April 6, 2014, Vaezi added. Iranian device users lost access to Samsung's mobile app store as of May 22, 2013. The Korean electronics giant said that it couldn't provide access to the store because of 'legal barriers'. Many sanctions have been imposed on Iran over its nuclear program, and Samsung's step is viewed as the latest such measure." http://t.uani.com/1d9WUDF

Syria Conflict

AP: "Iran's foreign minister said Monday that Tehran is 'ready to help any logical attempts' to end the Syrian conflict, during a visit by UN-Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi. Brahimi was in Tehran for the second day of talks with Iranian officials about ending the conflict in Syria, a key regional ally of Iran... 'Iran is ready to help any logical attempts which are based on the realities of Syria, particularly those efforts made by the United Nations (which) are being pursued by Lakhdar Brahimi,' Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted as saying by official news agency IRNA. 'Without being affected by the pressures of some countries, the UN should play its independent role and continue its attempts to resolve the crisis,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1cUZVHv

Human Rights

Gatestone: "According to a report by Karim Dahimi that was widely reported in Farsi, on March 6, 2014, an Ahwazi Arab-Iranian poet and human rights activist living in the Netherlands, Mr. Saeed Mousa Mosavi, was kidnapped and beaten by agents of the Islamic Republic of Iran after he returned to his home in the evening. Mosavi stated that during his ordeal, he was stripped naked, videotaped and tortured with electric shocks. The agents apparently knew about Mosavi's daily activities, and interrogated him about Ahwazi activists who had visited him at his home. He was also questioned about several specific Iranian-Arab activists... The assault on Mosavi is not the first time an Ahwazi activist has been targeted by the Iranian regime outside Iran. Previously in the Netherlands, the house of another Iranian Ahwazi was set on fire after he was directly threatened by agents of the Iranian government." http://t.uani.com/OsCmLa

AP: "Iran's judiciary said Tuesday it is taking unspecified legal action against two opposition leaders held under house arrest without charge since 2011 - a move that possibly comes in response to demands by their supporters that they be given a fair trial to resolve their status. The semi-official Fars news agency quoted senior judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani as saying he was hopeful that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi could be freed after the conclusion of the case. 'We hope to see the lifting of house arrest after a final conclusion by judiciary and security officials,' Larijani said... In Tuesday's statement, the hard-line Larijani called the two detained men 'friends.' 'I wish the sedition had never happened. We had cooperation with these two beloved men' before 2009, he said. Mousavi was a prime minister in 1980s and Karroubi was a parliamentary speaker in 1990s." http://t.uani.com/1eOcgsd

AP: "Iran's foreign minister cancelled a planned dinner meeting with the European Union's foreign policy chief on Monday over meetings she had with opposition activists during a visit to Iran earlier this month, Semiofficial Fars news agency reported. It said Mohammad Javad Zarif's cancellation of Monday's scheduled dinner with Catherine Ashton in Vienna was intended to protest 'uncoordinated meetings in Tehran,' a reference to her meeting with female opposition activists convicted of rioting after the disputed 2009 election, including human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh." http://t.uani.com/1ohEdim

Domestic Politics

Reuters: "Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's top aide has been indicted, apparently in connection with allegations of corruption in the previous administration, Iranian media reported on Monday. Former Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi has been the target of a lengthy judicial investigation into his possible role in several high-profile bribery and embezzlement cases that also spill into Turkey, as well as Central and East Asia. Rahimi has denied all the accusations and last year, while still in office, he said he would 'volunteer to have my hands severed if even one of these charges is proved against me'. Mohsen Eftekhari, a Tehran judge, told Shargh newspaper that Rahimi had been indicted and that his case would be referred to a special court. He did not specify the charges against him." http://t.uani.com/1fVZmww

Foreign Affairs

WT: "The death of 22-year-old Venezuelan student Genesis Carmona at the hands of armed pro-government civilian militias, called 'colectivos,' bears a striking resemblance to the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, the Iranian student who was shot and killed in a similar fashion on the streets of Tehran during the Green Revolution of 2009. This has led many analysts to begin comparing the colectivos' tactics to those used by Iran's Basij paramilitary force. The similarity, however, is more than speculation. In April 2009, the current Iranian commander of the Basij paramilitary force, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, accompanied then-Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar on a high-level visit to Caracas at the invitation by then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez and his foreign minister (now President) Nicolas Maduro. Several defense agreements followed, but one in particular is relevant to what is transpiring on the streets of Venezuela today. According to sources within the Venezuelan military, Gen. Naqdi's role in these high-level meetings was to serve as an adviser to Venezuela's Ministries of Defense and Interior to aid in training their civilian militias, the now-infamous colectivos." http://t.uani.com/1j0m2KY

Opinion & Analysis

Alan Levine in JPost: "There appears to be a disconnect between Jerusalem and Washington on the approach to sanctions on the Iranian regime. This time, it may be Israel that is guilty of an oversight. Last weekend, 14,000 pro-Israel activists and members of the US Congress came together at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee Policy Conference in Washington for three straight days of calls for new sanctions on Iran. At the same time, Tel Aviv was recovering from a marathon sponsored by one of the companies that should be targeted. The Tel Aviv Samsung Marathon, the largest sporting event in Israel, took the city by storm. Millions of shekels were invested in the advertising campaign, streets were shut down for the runners (including myself), and a massive 'Samsung Expo' was set up in Rabin Square all week. While 40,000 runners wore the neon yellow marathon T-shirt with Samsung's logo on it, nobody seemed to have reservations that this company is still doing business with the mullahs in Iran. Unlike Apple and Microsoft, for example, Samsung provides localized services to Iranians in their native Persian language. According to a 2012 report by the major Korean newspaper, Dong-A Ilbo, Korean companies LG Electronics and Samsung account for 30 percent of Iran's mobile phone market. In 2009, Samsung equipment may have been used to monitor political dissidents during the brutal crackdown on anti-regime protesters. As the world watched in horror via social media, Green Movement activists such as Neda Soltan - who was killed and became the symbol of regime repression - were brutalized and many others killed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. According to the group United Against Nuclear Iran, cofounded by US diplomat Dennis Ross - who served as special adviser to Hillary Clinton as secretary of state on matters including Iran - Samsung surveillance systems are sold in the Islamic Republic and may even have contributed to Neda's death... This is an opportunity for Israel to help by applying economic pressure. Samsung, like most major tech companies, has a research-and-development center in Israel. As a world leader in technological R&D, Israel could use its leverage over the company... Yet, the ability of Samsung to put its name up in the lights of Tel Aviv for a week suggests there is no Israeli strategy at all for economic pressure. One wonders if so much as an angry letter was ever sent... Israel's efforts to stop Iran are clearly robust and dynamic... But as a growing economic power, Israel should lead by example in the financial track as well. The Western strategy to stop Iran is essentially triple pronged: it includes diplomacy, economic sanctions and a credible military threat. At the moment, the P5 + 1 is engaged in negotiations with Iran. But it is clear that military threat and sanctions are the reasons that Iran is at the table. They have been forced - not wooed - to the negotiating table. And the stronger the sanctions, the more likely the Iranians will be to make concessions. Some sort of pressure - even symbolic - on a company like Samsung could at the minimum achieve a few things: It would signal resolve to Iran and to Israel's friends. It could give momentum to members of the US Congress who are fighting uphill for further sanctions. Perhaps, most importantly, it would allow Israel, if and when there is a military strike, to tell the world that non-violent options were fully exercised. And maybe it would even move Samsung just enough to push its position off the fence and into the camp that is no longer doing business in Iran." http://t.uani.com/1hqAbQp

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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