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TOP STORIES
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard is expected to put
100 gun boats in the Persian Gulf sometime in the next 48 hours to
practice "swarm" tactics simulating actions which could
potentially shut down the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 10 percent
of the world's oil passes through each year, two U.S. officials said
Wednesday.
Scattered protests broke out in several Iranian cities
on Thursday over the dramatic drop of the country's currency and
other economic problems ahead of the imposition of renewed American
sanctions, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported.
Iranian forces have withdrawn their heavy weapons in
Syria to a distance of 85 km (53 miles) from the Israeli-occupied
Golan Heights, TASS quoted a Russian envoy as saying on Wednesday,
but Israel deemed the pullback inadequate
UANI IN THE NEWS
On July 28, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
marked 29 years since a referendum made his election official. Today,
at 79 years old, he is still relatively young in the Islamic
Republic's gerontocracy. The chairman of Iran's Assembly of
Experts and Guardian Council, Ahmad Jannati, is 91. But
persistent rumors of cancer have plagued Khamenei for years and he
has publicly acknowledged his mortality. For him, these must be
difficult and disappointing days. Iran's revolution is fraying, and
the jockeying among his potential successors tends to spike whenever
his health appears to decline.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Speaking to the French broadcaster BFMTV, France's
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire voiced hope that the United States
would allow the Franco-Italian aircraft manufacturer ATR to deliver
its regional planes to Iran before the August 6 deadline, when the
first batch of sanctions will be introduced.
Iran's demand for gold bars and coins may remain strong
for the rest of the year and even increase as the U.S. reimposes
sanctions, pummeling the value of the rial.
It seems a week does not pass in which more European
companies announce that they are avoiding Iranian markets like a
deadly plague. And the divestment from Iran's dangerous economy comes
without any tangible saber rattling on the ground from the Trump administration.
Put simply, the US government's industrial market strength - and the
nature of interconnected capitalism - is compelling foreign companies
to abandon the Islamic Republic of Iran.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Heathrow Airport border staff have thwarted a suspected
attempt to fly missile parts from Britain to Iran.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Protests resumed Wednesday night in Iran's city of
Karaj, in Alborz Province, over the high cost of living, inflation
and the deteriorating value of the Iranian currency rial. During the
protests, many Iranians called for the country's Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to leave.
Protesters have taken to the streets of an Iranian
provincial capital near Tehran for a second consecutive night to
voice anger over the country's growing economic difficulties,
social-media posts suggest.
Iran has a chronic shortage of water. It is estimated
there is some form of drought in 97 percent of the country.
Iran's application of the death penalty to individuals
arrested during the country's economic crisis would be in
"direct breach of international law," the world's leading
human-rights organization has said.
After Siamak Namazi was arrested in Tehran in 2015, his
family faced a wrenching choice: involve the diplomatic machinery of
the U.S. government, speak out publicly about the arrest, or quietly
work for his release through Iranian officials. It's the same dilemma
diplomats and relatives grapple with each time a U.S. citizen is
imprisoned in Iran.
Iran's judiciary has extended the detention of prominent
human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, who is facing two national
security charges for peacefully engaging in her profession.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
The United States believes Iran is preparing to carry
out a major exercise in the Gulf in the coming days, apparently
moving up the timing of annual drills amid heightened tensions with
Washington, U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday.
Israel would deploy its military if Iran were to try to
block the Bab al-Mandeb strait that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of
Aden, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday.
Defeating swarms with A-10 Warthogs isn't exactly
revolutionary but that isn't so much a problem. The plane isn't a
high-tech laser, but it doesn't need to be.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
A year before leaving office, Barack Obama stunned the
world with a prisoner trade with Iran. After more than a year of
secret negotiations, the U.S. president announced that five Americans
were freed from captivity, closing a deal he dubbed a "one-time
gesture." But even before Obama stepped down, American diplomats
were back at the negotiating table, struggling to secure the release
of more prisoners.
I have no doubt that President Trump was serious Monday
when he said he would be willing to meet with Iran's leaders without
precondition. But for the man who is still generally considered the
most powerful person in the world, there are plenty of obstacles
between him and a summit with the Islamic Republic's top officials.
Standing in his way are the domestic politics of
Washington and Tehran.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN.
Energy Ministry unmoved as army recommends to situate
natural gas rigs differently than initially planned. What
Israel's next war with Hezbollah will look like...
Ignoring the political animosity between the two
countries, an Iranian-born player made his debut alongside two
Israeli players in the top English soccer league on Tuesday evening.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran's government spokesman resigned on Tuesday, he said
in a tweet, as President Hassan Rouhani comes under pressure from
hardline rivals to change his cabinet following a deterioration in
relations with the United States.
The recent appointments of new managers at Iran's
conservative-dominated state broadcaster may indicate that the
organization is about to adopt a more hard-line position. This comes
as a number of powerful moderate officials at the Islamic Republic of
Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) have been weakened lately.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Yemen's Houthi rebels are still arming themselves with
ballistic missiles and drones that "show characteristics
similar" to Iranian-made weapons, a report by a UN panel of
experts has found.
An Al Houthi announcement on Wednesday of a two-week
pause in Red Sea operations is an indication that the militia Al
Houthis is under increasing pressure from a Saudi-led Arab coalition
offensive against it.
It is now one year on from the decision of four Middle
East states to implement a diplomatic and trade boycott of Qatar in
protest to a range of matters, foremost being Qatar's continued
support for terrorism and extremism. The boycott brought to light
Qatar's failures to adhere to its international obligations
concerning the funding and support of terrorism, and its absence of
international cooperation in the fight against terrorism. Resolving
these failures would require Qatar to do more than pay lip service to
its international obligations and cooperation in the global framework
for combatting terrorism. Twelve months, on has much changed?
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Riyadh and Tehran are destabilizing actors in
Afghanistan and play a large role in supporting the country's ongoing
conflict
More than 400,000 undocumented Afghan migrants left Iran
in 2018, according to the International Organization for Migration
(IOM) -- a massive increase from 2017, when 187,000 returned over the
course of the entire year. The mass exodus has been "largely
driven by recent political and economic issues in Iran, including
massive currency devaluation," according to the IOM's July
report.
TURKEY & IRAN
As Turkey's relations with the West have been
deteriorating, it has been trying to deepen its ties with Russia. Yet
Ankara is about to suffer a major setback as the five Caspian
littoral states (Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan) are getting ready to conclude their 27-year dispute.
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