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One of Iran's biggest oil customers is buying more U.S.
crude as President Donald Trump sticks to his pledge to squeeze the
Persian Gulf nation's energy trade. State-run refiner Indian Oil
Corp., which had been buying U.S. crude in the spot market, signed a
term tender to purchase American oil for delivery every month between
November and January, according to Finance Director Arun Kumar
Sharma.
The Trump administration forecasts that it will persuade
countries to cut Iranian oil imports by as much as 1 million barrels
a day when it reimposes energy sanctions in early November, according
to two people familiar with the administration's efforts to choke off
Tehran's crude sales. The assessment forecasts a range of likely cuts
of 700,000 to 1 million barrels a day -- a significant reduction for
the Islamic Republic but short of the announced U.S. goal of halting
all sales of Iranian crude.
On May 8, 2018, President Donald J. Trump announced the
U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, or Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA), with Iran. Effective immediately, U.S.
nuclear sanctions on Iran were reinstated and the President warned
that "any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons
could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States"... In
response to these developments, companies around the world that had
resumed trade and investment with Iran following the JCPOA began to
reverse course. The following table, which relies on news media,
tracks these responses.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
The Swiss government regrets the
"deteriorating" situation regarding sanctions imposed by
the United States on Iran, but recommends Swiss firms pursue their
business relations with the Islamic Republic on an informed basis, it
said on Thursday.
German companies are increasingly suffering from U.S.
President Donald Trump's policy of sanctions - including those
against Iran - and the tariffs he is pursuing in an escalating trade
war with China, business associations said on Thursday.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's comments that his
country would abide by US sanctions has taken Iranian media by
surprise.
If they play their hand well, Trump officials can secure
large reductions in Iran's oil exports. But doing so requires the
administration to navigate both complex global oil markets and a
multilevel diplomatic game involving both governments and global
companies.
Restricted oil and gas export opportunities will have a
significant impact on the plans of the Iranian government to increase
revenues, which the country's sixth 5-year Development Plan heavily
relies on. Sanctions will also majorly hamper the National Iranian
Oil Company's development plans to increase oil and gas production.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu says his
country is resolved to expand ties with Iran despite US threats to
punish governments that violate recently-restored economic sanctions
against the Islamic Republic.
A price war is brewing between top oil producers in the
Middle East, and the U.S. may be at the heart of it.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Iran and North Korea are growing their stockpile of
ballistic missiles, including long-range missiles capable of striking
U.S. assets, American allies, and even the continental United States,
according to new congressional reports that shine a light on efforts
by these rogue nations to advance their military capabilities.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Three human rights organizations have urged Iranian
authorities to stop "harassing and threatening" the
families of activists and journalists as a tactic to silence dissent
and criticism.
Amnesty International (AI) has called on Iran to release
peaceful protesters following a wave of arrests over demonstrations
against the Islamic Republic's dire economic conditions and its
foreign military interventions.
US sanctions on Tehran came into effect on August 7 amid
Iranian fury over their deteriorating economy. But will pressure from
the street be enough to destabilise the Ayatollah's regime?
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
A semi-official Iranian news agency is quoting an aide
to the country's president as saying that he doesn't see "any
reason" for talks between Donald Trump and Hassan Rouhani at the
next United Nations General Assembly.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran has threatened to block access to the world's
busiest oil route in response to U.S. sanctions designed to reduce
the revolutionary Shiite Muslim power's petroleum exports to zero.
While there has been no indication that Iran was prepared to go
through with the warning, such a move would likely be catastrophic
for the region and global energy prices.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Former hard-line Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
has asked President Hassan Rouhani to resign.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Reports have started circulating about an intention to
establish a NATO-style security and military strategic alliance
between the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt and Jordan to
confront the danger represented in the Iranian expansion in the
region. This alliance, according to the news, is likely to be
announced by mid-October.
NORTH KOREA & IRAN
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told North Korea's
foreign minister that the United States cannot be trusted, Tehran's
state media said, as the United States seeks a deal to rein in the
North's nuclear and missile programs. North Korea for its part
denounced the United States for its "outdated acting
script" in pressuring the North with continued sanctions, but
said it was still prepared to meet its obligations after a historic
North Korea-U.S. summit in Singapore in June.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN.
As Syria's war enters what could be its last and most
dangerous stretch, the Syrian government and its allies will have to
contend for the first time with the presence of foreign troops in the
quest to bring the rest of the country back under President Bashar
al-Assad's control... Iran has... entrenched its forces and allied
militias alongside loyalist Syrian troops across government-held
territory, stirring deep concern for Israel.
The parliamentary bloc of Lebanon's Hezbollah group said
on Thursday that delay in forming a new government risked Lebanon
sliding "towards tension."
The indebted nation could benefit financially from
legalizing cannabis. But legalization could create complications for
Hezbollah, which draws recruits from Lebanon's poor hashish-growing
region.
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