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The Jordan
Valley: Israel's security belt
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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is once again in town trying to reach
a framework agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. One of
the issues of dispute is the fate of the Jordan Valley, which is
indispensable for Israel's national security. The Jordan Valley is the only
available defensible border on the eastern front, which is the closest
border to Israel's heartland -- the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv-Haifa triangle --
which holds 70 percent of its population and 80% of its economic
infrastructure.
Many pundits claim that Israel no longer needs the Jordan Valley as a
shield against aggression from the east. They argue that the demise of the
Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, the weakening of civil-war-torn Syria, and
the impressive stability of Jordan in light of the turmoil of the Arab
world renders the threat of the eastern front and its proximity to Israel's
center a thing of the past. Yet this is a very short-term perspective,
motivated by the desire to convince the Israeli public opinion that the
Jordan Valley is militarily dispensable. Such a view ignores the immense
potential for political upheaval in the Middle East, as recently
demonstrated during the Arab Spring. The destabilization of Hashemite
Jordan and Saudi Arabia and a radical jihadist Syria are not far-fetched
scenarios for the near future. The re-emergence of the eastern front as a
security threat could soon follow.
Moreover, the U.S. decided to cut its losses and leave Iraq and
Afghanistan, which constitutes a victory to all radical forces in the
Middle East. A more energy-independent America might decide that it has
less of a stake in the Middle East, allowing greater freedom of action to
Islamist elements to take over American allies. Israel cannot count on the
U.S. to always lend its weight to Arab moderates. Under President Barack
Obama, Washington supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and might make
the same strategic mistake in Jordan.
Advocates of turning over the Jordan Valley to the Palestinians also
discount its topographical importance by referring to current military
technology, which allows precision strikes from a distance. They argue that
the ability to launch defensive strikes from the coast eliminates the
strategic need for the Jordan Valley as a means of defense. Yet, these
armchair strategists overlook the history of military technology, which
shows a clear oscillation between the dominance of offensive and defensive
measures over the centuries. The belief that the technology of today --
which indeed temporarily reduces the importance of topography -- will
remain unchallenged constitutes a dangerous strategic fallacy.
Designing stable defensible borders in accordance with the current, but
transient, technological state of the art and political circumstances is
strategically foolish. Therefore, if Israel wants to maintain a defensible
border along the Jordan Valley it also needs to secure the road from the
coast to the Valley, via an undivided Jerusalem and via Maaleh Adumim -- 15
kilometers (9 miles) from the river. This is the only west-east axis with a
Jewish majority and the only safe route via which Israel can mobilize
troops from the coast to the Jordan Valley in a case of emergency.
Maaleh Adumim serves as the linchpin in establishing an effective line
of defense along the Jordan Valley against aggression from the east.
Building a Jewish populated corridor in the 5-kilometer-wide E1 area between
Jerusalem and Maaleh Adumim will secure the road to the Jordan Valley and
prevent the division of Jerusalem. Jerusalem's importance to the Jews is
not only historical and religious, but also strategic. There is great
importance in controlling the only highway from the Mediterranean to the
Jordan River Valley along which Jews can travel with little interference
from concentrations of the Arab population.
The Palestinians plan to populate E1 with Arabs to create demographic
contiguity between Samaria and east Jerusalem, thereby facilitating the
division of the city. Such a development would also isolate Maaleh Adumim
and undermine Israeli claims to the Jordan Valley. Settling Jews in E1 is
an imperative to keep Jerusalem united and to consolidate Israel's defensible
border along the Jordan Valley.
The U.S. seems to understand Israel's strategic need for the Jordan
Valley, but is opposed to linking Maaleh Adumim to Jerusalem as a vital
component of the eastern defensible border. Yet, we should remember that the
U.S. has opposed Israeli settlement efforts since 1967 and only rarely did
American objections have an impact on Israeli decisions on this issue.
Moreover, the Americans can be persuaded to tacitly go along with linking
Maaleh Adumim to Jerusalem if a clear strategic vision based upon the
principle of territorial compromise is presented.
While the wisdom of indiscriminately settling the Land of Israel is not
strategically compelling and is a hard sell diplomatically, a selective
settlement policy focusing on areas within the Israeli consensus, including
Maaleh Adumim and the Jordan Valley, can be pursued with less foreign
opposition. Willingness for a territorial compromise in Judea and Samaria
is also the position of most Israelis. The government must act to reflect
this preference to convince the Israeli public that it is seriously
pursuing peace. Israelis need such an assurance to support the government
in case of international pressure to make dangerous concessions, or to
fight a war if necessary. A selective settlement policy that distinguishes
between important and less important strategic areas requires a gradual
freeze in building and allocations to isolated settlements, and should be
complemented with the removal of illegal outposts located outside the areas
of consensus.
Building in E1 and the Jordan Valley will thus become easier in domestic
and international terms. It is imperative to build homes for Jews there to
establish a defensible line along Israel's eastern border. Hopefully Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will finally implement the announced plans.
Professor Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for
Strategic Studies, is a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan
University and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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