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Reuters:
"Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday tried to shift
the spotlight away from the Islamic State militant group and back to
Iran, warning the United Nations that a nuclear-armed Tehran would pose a
far greater threat than 'militant Islamists on pickup trucks.' ... 'Make
no mistake, ISIS (Islamic State) must be defeated,' Netanyahu added. 'But
to defeat ISIS and leave Iran as a threshold nuclear power is to win the
battle and lose the war.' 'It's one thing to confront militant Islamists
on pickup trucks armed with Kalashnikov rifles, it's another thing to
confront militant Islamists armed with weapons of mass destruction,'
Netanyahu said... 'Iran's nuclear military capabilities must be fully
dismantled,' Netanyahu said. He added that the goal of a charm offensive
by Iran's 'smooth talking president and foreign minister' was to get
international sanctions lifted 'and remove the obstacles to Iran's path
to the bomb.'" http://t.uani.com/1uyFcRn
WSJ:
"U.S. lawmakers will need to weigh additional sanctions against Iran
and the U.S. effort to combat Islamic State fighters when they return to
Washington in November, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D., Md.) said
Monday, underscoring the foreign policy challenges currently confronting
U.S. policymakers... The Obama administration has dissuaded lawmakers
from leveling additional sanctions against Iran while the talks are
ongoing, but lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have said they could
move quickly to pass additional sanctions if negotiations falter. Mr.
Hoyer said he has already started discussing the issue with Sen. Robert
Menendez (D., N.J.), who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
'I think potential sanctions are on the table depending upon what happens
on the 24th of November,' Mr. Hoyer said of the chance for action during
the lame duck. Western powers need to make clear to Iran that there won't
be additional reductions to existing sanctions unless talks are moving in
a direction the U.S. finds acceptable. 'Iran has to believe that the
military option is not off the table, and two, that further economic
sanctions are likely if an agreement is not reached,' Mr. Hoyer
said." http://t.uani.com/1pDRccB
Asharq Al-Awsat:
"Forces with links to Iran and Shi'ite Lebanese militia Hezbollah
are helping Houthi rebels to strengthen their hold on the Yemeni capital
Sana'a, intelligence sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. 'Elements affiliated
with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah, who were
training Houthis in the north of Yemen, are currently present in the
capital Sana'a,' an intelligence source, who requested anonymity because
he was not permitted to brief the media, told Asharq Al-Awsat. Following
a month of protests against Yemen's central government, Houthi militants
last week gained control of key government buildings in Sana'a and looted
the homes of top government officials. Members of the Iranian elite force
and Hezbollah are helping the Shi'ite rebels implement their political
and military agenda in the country, the source said." http://t.uani.com/1ByeUxj
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Al-Monitor:
"Iran's insistence that UN Security Council resolutions on its
nuclear program be lifted at the front end of a final nuclear deal has emerged
as an unexpected sticking point in the negotiations, diplomats say.
Western diplomats said if a final nuclear deal is reached, the United
States and European Union would quickly waive and then lift unilateral,
proliferation-related economic sanctions on Iran that would provide a
rapid windfall to Iran's economy. (However, the US trade embargo on Iran,
enacted after Iran's 1979 seizure of the US embassy and hostage crisis,
would remain in place, a senior US official said.) A new UN Security
Council resolution outlining the deal and what steps all sides had agreed
on would also be passed, western diplomat said. But the lifting of UN
Security Council sanctions on Iran's nuclear program would be
step-by-step and tied to Iran's compliance with the terms of the deal, as
well as cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
probe into past possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program,
the western diplomats said." http://t.uani.com/1u8JflP
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters:
"Asian buyers imported less than 1 million barrels per day of
Iranian crude for the first time this year in August as China's buys hit
the lowest since the easing of Western sanctions, although intake was
still up 6.4 percent from a year ago... The interim agreement between
Iran and world powers that went into effect in January allowed Tehran to
keep exports at the reduced level of about 1 million barrels per day
(bpd). Imports by Iran's four major clients in Asia topped that mark in
each of the first seven months of the year, rising to as much as 1.37
million bpd in February, although there has not been any apparent
crackdown on the higher volumes. Iran's biggest buyers - China, India,
Japan and South Korea - together in August took in 921,064 bpd of the Islamic
republic's crude, down 10.5 percent from a seven-month low hit in July
and the lowest since last October, government and tanker-tracking data
showed. For the first eight months of 2014, the four buyers' imports
averaged 1.15 million bpd, up 23.6 percent from the same period last
year." http://t.uani.com/1vrKATc
Shana (Iran):
"The sales manager of Austria's Erema Plastics Recycling Systems
said the presence of European exhibitors at the 9th Iran Plast exhibition
in unprecedented. Horst Roeder is Erema's manager of sales to customers
in Brazil, Iran, Pakistan, Portugal and Spain. He said his company is
willing to expand its ties with Iran and strengthen its foothold in its
market, and added that there are so many customer awaiting Erema's
products. He underlined the years long presence of Erema in the Iranian
market, and said the company has run pavilions at Iranian petrochemical
exhibitions for years." http://t.uani.com/1u8KPnT
Human Rights
Guardian:
"A 37-year-old man has been executed in Iran after being found
guilty of heresy and insulting prophet Jonah, according to human rights
activists. Mohsen Amir-Aslani was arrested nine years ago for his
activities which the authorities deemed were heretical. He was engaged in
psychotherapy but also led sessions reading and reciting the Qur'an and
providing his own interpretations of the Islamic holy book, his family
said. Amir-Aslani was hanged last week for making 'innovations in the
religion' and 'spreading corruption on earth', but human rights activists
said he was a prisoner of conscience who was put to death because of his
religious beliefs. He had interpreted Jonah's story in the Qur'an as a
symbolic tale." http://t.uani.com/1xwX4gK
IHR:
"Reyhaneh Jabbari's scheduled execution has been postponed for 10
days and she is transferred back to her old prison ward at Gharchak
prison of Varamin (southern Tehran). The death row prisoner Reyhaneh
Jabbari was transferred yesterday (Monday September 29) to Rajaishahr
prison of Karaj (West of Tehran) and the execution was scheduled for this
morning. The news of her scheduled execution received broad attention
inside and outside Iran." http://t.uani.com/1tdKufq
ICHRI:
"The Iranian Judiciary should immediately release the Iranian
physicist and prisoner of conscience, Omid Kokabee, the International
Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said today. Kokabee has multiple
serious health problems and requires immediate medical attention. The
Campaign has learned that Kokabee's health is in great danger as he is
suffering from heart, kidney, stomach, and dental illnesses. On September
26, 2014, in an open letter to Iran's Leader, Ali Khamenei, eighteen
physics Nobel laureates called for the 'immediate and unconditional'
release of Kokabee. The letter was published in the leading scientific
journal Nature." http://t.uani.com/1vrKXgF
Foreign Affairs
Reuters:
"Iran will supply the Lebanese army with military equipment to be
used in fighting Muslim extremist groups, a visiting senior Iranian
official said on Tuesday. The announcement marks the first time that Iran
has said it would give Lebanon military assistance. Tehran has offered
help in the past but such offers did not materialize because of sharp
divisions among Lebanese political groups over Iran." http://t.uani.com/1ounKWZ
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI President
Gary Samore in IISS: "Earlier this month I gave a
talk at the IISS Global Strategic Review in Oslo, focusing on the status
of the P5+1 negotiations with Iran and in particular the prospects for
completing a comprehensive agreement by the deadline of November 24.
Since then I've spent some days in New York for events around the UN
General Assembly opening. My conversations there confirmed my fairly
pessimistic prognosis for a November deal, so what I said in Oslo still looks
right to me. Since the extension of the Joint Plan of Action for four
months on July 24, the negotiators have established a more sensible
process, with fewer formal multilateral P5+1 meetings with Iran in favour
of more bilateral sessions, including two extended meetings between the
full Iranian and American teams in Geneva in August and September. These
bilateral US-Iran talks have continued in New York. This procedural shift
is useful because the P5+1 format is too cumbersome for real
negotiations. Any deal will have to be negotiated directly by the US and
Iran and then ratified by the P5+1 and ultimately the UN Security
Council. Unfortunately, the two sides remain very far apart on the most
contentious and important issue in the negotiations: Iran's status as a
nuclear weapons threshold state. This refers to Iran's physical capacity
to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium, which is determined by the
technical details of Iran's enrichment program, such as the number and
types of centrifuge machines, size of the stockpile of enriched uranium,
limits on enrichment levels, restrictions on research and development,
etc. The US is demanding that Iran significantly reduce its existing
enrichment capacity (equal to about 10,000 operating IR-1 centrifuges) and
maintain these restrictions for up to 20 years. Iran, on the other hand,
rejects any reduction of its current capacity and insists on building up
a much larger industrial scale capacity within a few years. I could
imagine a compromise that would require very difficult and painful
concessions from both sides, but neither side feels compelled to make
such hard choices. The Supreme Leader seems to believe that the Ukraine
Crisis and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has
weakened and distracted the US and reduced pressure on Iran to meet P5+1
demands. He also appears confident that Iran's economy - under President
Rouhani's more competent management - is better equipped to withstand a
resumption of sanctions if the Joint Plan of Action expires. By the same
token, I see no sign that President Obama is prepared to accept a 'bad
deal' that would allow Iran to retain or develop a significant enrichment
capacity in the near term. Such an agreement would badly damage US
strategic interests, deeply upset US allies in the region, and face stiff
Congressional opposition at a time when President Obama wants to focus
his energies on prosecuting the campaign against ISIS. Moreover, the US
administration also believes it can put additional pressure on Iranian
oil exports if the talks collapse because growing oil supply and
decreasing demand has created a soft international market in which
further restrictions on Iranian oil exports would not trigger price
increases. So, at this stage, it's difficult to see how a comprehensive
deal can emerge by late November." http://t.uani.com/1Bwb1sT
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