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NYT:
"If an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear capability is reached by
deadline in the next seven days, one thing may be missing: an actual
written accord, signed by the Iranians. Over the past few weeks, Iran has
increasingly resisted any kind of formal 'framework' agreement at this
stage in the negotiations, preferring a more general statement of
'understanding' followed by a final accord in June, according to Western
diplomats involved in the talks. Should that position hold - one of the
many unknowns of the coming days - the United States and its five
negotiating partners may find themselves in the uncomfortable position of
describing the accord as they understand it while the Iranians go home to
offer their own version. That poses a weighty political challenge to the
Obama administration, which is already under pressure to present Iran's
commitments to a suspicious Congress by early April, in an effort to hold
off the passage of sanctions or a bill that would require Congress to
sign off on any agreement. Just last week, as the previous round of talks
with Iran came to a close, a senior American official involved in the
negotiations said that the framework accord with Iran would have to be
more than a political declaration of intentions. Rather, it would have to
contain a 'quantifiable dimension.' There is a lot to quantify, from the
number of uranium-enriching centrifuges that would remain spinning to
exactly how Iran would change the design of a reactor that is under
construction to limit the production of plutonium, another pathway to a
bomb. But Iran says it will not agree to such specifics, at least for
now." http://t.uani.com/1CanOUv
AP:
"An Iranian official on Tuesday rebuked the chief of the U.N. atomic
agency for demanding snap inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, saying the
request hindered efforts to reach an agreement with world powers, state
TV reported... Earlier this month Yukiya Amano, the head of the U.N.'s
International Atomic Energy Agency, said Tehran should agree to snap
inspections to reassure the international community. Iran's nuclear
spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said Amano's comments harm the delicate
negotiations. 'It would be much better if Amano only talked about the
IAEA's seasonal and monthly reports,' he said, according to state TV.
Last June, Kamalvandi said Iran may accept snap inspections as part of a
final nuclear agreement." http://t.uani.com/1BLWyZ5
HuffPost:
"A report from The Wall Street Journal that Israel spied on
U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and then fed that information to members
of Congress seemed like a shocker at first blush when it published Monday
night. While spying is a seedy but accepted part of geopolitics, using
intelligence information to sway Congress against President Barack
Obama's agenda on Iran was seen as a step too far by senior
administration officials cited in the report. But when talk of the story
began circulating on Capitol Hill, lawmakers seemed almost uniformly
unfazed. Most denied receiving information from the Israeli government,
and some questioned whether leaked information about the nuclear
negotiations was from Israel, rather than one of the five countries
partnering with the U.S. in the talks. 'Actually, one of my reactions
was, 'Why haven't they been coming up here sharing information with me?''
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) told
reporters... I think you all understand what's happening here. You
understand who's pushing this out,' Corker continued, implying that the
recent Wall Street Journal story was an attempt by the White House to
vilify the Israelis... '[The Obama Administration has] been reluctant to
have an honest, full debate about the Iran deal, and about rapprochement
with the Iranian regime. It's been about obfuscation and saying that
people who oppose the deal are war mongers,' said David Ibsen, the
executive director of United Against Nuclear Iran. 'If you look at what's
going on, you'd think that Tom Cotton and Benjamin Netanyahu are the
greatest threats to U.S. national security in the last 30 years.
Meanwhile, [Syrian President Bashar] Assad is dropping chemical weapons
again, there is a total vacuum of authority in Libya, Iran is expanding
in influence across the region. And all we hear about is the Bibi speech
to Congress and the letter to Iran from the 47 Republicans,' Ibsen
continued." http://t.uani.com/1BmyMng
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Reuters:
"France warned on Tuesday that 'insufficient' progress has been made
toward a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers with specific
disparities over research and development and the issue of sanctions.
'Iran must now make difficult choices if it truly wishes to regain the
trust of the international community,' French U.N. Ambassador Francois
Delattre told a United Nations Security Council meeting on U.N. sanctions
on Iran... The biggest sticking point, Western officials say, remains
Iran's demands for no limits on research and development of advanced
centrifuges, which purify uranium for use in nuclear reactors or, if
highly enriched, in weapons. Another issue is sanctions. Iran wants all
U.N. sanctions lifted immediately after a deal is agreed, along with the
most crippling U.S. and European Union restrictions on Tehran's energy
and financial sectors. 'Iran will need to show greater flexibility and
take some tough decisions in the coming days if we are to achieve a
deal,' Britain's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Peter Wilson told the council.
During talks last week, France was insisting on a longer period of
restrictions on Iran's nuclear work and also opposed the idea of
suspending some U.N. sanctions relatively quickly." http://t.uani.com/1Gl3pPP
WashPost:
"The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran
has failed to provide the information or access needed to allay the
agency's concerns about the weapons potential of the country's nuclear
program. With the deadline nearing for international talks on constraining
Iran's nuclear program, Yukiya Amano, director general of the IAEA, said
in an interview that Iran has replied to just one of a dozen queries
about 'possible military dimensions' of past nuclear activities. Amano
said that Iran has provided only 'very limited' information about two
other issues, while the rest have not been addressed at all. Recently,
the progress is very limited,' he said. Amano said that the six global
powers negotiating with Iran should insist that the country implement the
additional protocol that would allow IAEA inspectors to go anywhere at
any time to examine sites suspected of harboring secret nuclear weapons
development... That additional protocol, Amano said, will be 'very much
needed. It will give us more powerful tools to look at activities not
declared to us.'" http://t.uani.com/1FUIpPg
Reuters:
"Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday the U.S.
Senate would vote on a bill to toughen sanctions on Iran if international
negotiators miss a deadline at the end of this month for reaching a
framework nuclear agreement. 'Another heavy dose of sanctions would be an
appropriate remedy if there's no agreement at all,' McConnell told a
weekly news briefing. If there is an agreement, he said lawmakers would
move ahead on a bill that would require President Barack Obama to submit
the deal for Congress' approval. Obama has threatened to veto both
bills... Separately, Republican Senator Mark Kirk, a co-author of the
sanctions bill, told reporters on Tuesday he would introduce legislation
recommending new sanctions on Iran as an amendment to a budget resolution
now being considered by the Senate." http://t.uani.com/1ESRVAR
Reuters:
"Iran will insist that all sanctions against it are lifted as a
condition for a nuclear deal, the foreign minister said on Wednesday,
showing no sign of compromise on a major sticking point in its talks with
world powers set to resume this week. 'This is the position that the
government has insisted on from the start,' Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying...
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on all
matters of state in the Islamic Republic, said in a speech last week that
the immediate lifting of sanctions must be a part of any nuclear deal.
Western officials have consistently rejected that demand, and a senior
European negotiator last week said the immediate lifting of all sanctions
was 'out of the question.'" http://t.uani.com/1BmwR26
Sanctions
Relief
Trend:
"Some 1.147 million cars have been produced in Iran during the last
Iranian fiscal year (ended on March 20). The figure indicates 54 percent
increase compared to the preceding year, Iran's industry, mines and trade
ministry's official SHATA news portal reported. Sedan and pickup trucks
output stood at 1.126 million in the last fiscal year. Iran also produced
20,679 trucks as well as 580 buses and minibuses in the 12-month period.
The country's giant car manufacturer Iran Khodro (IKCO) produced 616,000
cars during the last Iranian fiscal year, 69 percent more year on
year." http://t.uani.com/1CMjuN5
Trend:
"The inflation rate for the 12-month period to twelfth Iranian
calendar month of Esfand (ended on March 20) stood at 14.8 percent, Adel
Azar, head of the Statistics Center of Iran said. The figure is 0.4
percent less compared to the preceding month. The country's
point-to-point inflation in the mentioned month was 14.2 percent, 0.2
percent less than the previous month, Azar said, Iran's official IRIB news
agency reported March 21." http://t.uani.com/1BpkTUu
Iraq Crisis
Politico:
"As negotiations on a possible nuclear deal approach a March 31
deadline, U.S. officials are increasingly alarmed about Iran's expanding
military presence in Iraq - and the threat it may pose to American
soldiers in the country. Two scenarios are of particular concern,
officials say. One is that a collapse of the nuclear talks could escalate
tensions between Iran and the U.S., emboldening Iranian hard-liners and
potentially leading to attacks on Americans in Iraq. The other is that
increased U.S. efforts to oust Syrian president Bashar Assad, a close
ally of Tehran, could provoke retaliation from Iran. White House
officials who oppose greater involvement in Syria's civil war often cite
concern for the safety of Americans in Iraq as a reason for caution,
sources said. In either case, U.S. officials fear, Iran could direct the
Iraqi Shiite militias under its control to attack U.S. troops aiding the
fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant." http://t.uani.com/18X0r6P
WSJ:
"The U.S. has started providing Iraq with aerial intelligence in the
stalled battle to oust Islamic State from Tikrit, drawing the American
military into closer coordination with Iranian-backed militias spearheading
the offensive. Military officials said they aren't working directly with
Iran. But the intelligence will be used to help some 20,000
Iranian-backed Shiite militia fighters who make up the bulk of the force
that has been struggling for weeks to retake the strategic city... The
U.S. involvement could pave the way for American airstrikes in Tikrit,
hometown of onetime dictator Saddam Hussein." http://t.uani.com/1GUbqJC
Yemen Crisis
Reuters:
"Saudi Arabia is moving heavy military equipment including artillery
to areas near its border with Yemen, U.S. officials said on Tuesday,
raising the risk that the Middle East's top oil power will be drawn into
the worsening Yemeni conflict. The buildup follows a southward advance by
Iranian-backed Houthi Shi'ite militants who took control of the capital
Sanaa in September and seized the central city of Taiz at the weekend as
they move closer to the new southern base of U.S.-supported President
Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The slide toward war in Yemen has made the country
a crucial front in Saudi Arabia's region-wide rivalry with Iran, which
Riyadh accuses of sowing sectarian strife through its support for the
Houthis. The conflict risks spiraling into a proxy war with Shi'ite Iran
backing the Houthis, whose leaders adhere to the Zaydi sect of Shi'ite
Islam, and Saudi Arabia and the other regional Sunni Muslim monarchies
backing Hadi." http://t.uani.com/1CpGQHT
Domestic
Politics
Al-Monitor:
"Youness Asakere, an Iranian fruit vendor who set himself on fire in
front of the Khoramshahr municipality in protest after his fruit stand
was confiscated by authorities, died March 22. His death, and the lack of
broader attention by Iranian society, has stirred many questions among
activists and analysts on social media. Family members of Asakere, who
was an ethnic Arab, said that the fruit stand was his sole means of
income and that he had been previously denied official permits to have a
stand." http://t.uani.com/1CaoXeK
Reuters:
"Iran is storing more than 20 million barrels of crude on board its
supertankers moored off the country as western sanctions continued to
curb Iranian oil sales globally, Reuters data showed on Wednesday. Some
analysts and traders expect the OPEC producer to ship the stored oil to
its customers once Iran reaches a deal with western powers on its nuclear
programme which would phase out economic sanctions on the Gulf producer.
Nine of the 14 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are full while the rest
are filled at least 60 percent with oil in the past month, according to
data collated by Thomson Reuters Oil Research & Forecasts." http://t.uani.com/1COJPKD
Opinion &
Analysis
Thomas Friedman in
NYT: "I can think of many good reasons to go ahead
with the nuclear deal with Iran, and I can think of just as many reasons
not to. So, if you're confused, let me see if I can confuse you even
more. The proposed deal to lift sanctions on Iran - in return for curbs
on its bomb-making capabilities so that it would take at least a year for
Tehran to make a weapon - has to be judged in its own right. I will be
looking closely at the quality of the verification regime and the
specificity of what happens if Iran cheats. But the deal also has to be judged
in terms of how it fits with wider American strategic goals in the
region, because a U.S.-Iran deal would be an earthquake that touches
every corner of the Middle East. Not enough attention is being paid to
the regional implications - particularly what happens if we strengthen
Iran at a time when large parts of the Sunni Arab world are in meltdown.
Thomas Friedman in NYT: "The Obama team's best argument for doing
this deal with Iran is that, in time, it could be 'transformational.'
That is, the ending of sanctions could open Iran to the world and bring
in enough fresh air - Iran has been deliberately isolated since 1979 by
its ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard Corps - to gradually move Iran
from being a revolutionary state to a normal one, and one less inclined
to threaten Israel. If one assumes that Iran already has the know-how and
tools to build a nuclear weapon, changing the character of its regime is
the only way it becomes less threatening. The challenge to this argument,
explains Karim Sadjadpour, a Middle East specialist at the Carnegie
Endowment, is that while the Obama team wants to believe this deal could
be 'transformational,' Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, 'sees it as
transactional' - Iran plugs its nose, does the deal, regains its strength
and doubles-down on its longstanding revolutionary principles. But, then
again, you never know. What starts out as transactional can end up being
transformational in ways that no one can prevent or predict. A second
argument is that Iran is a real country and civilization, with
competitive (if restricted) elections, educated women and a powerful
military. Patching up the U.S.-Iran relationship could enable America to
better manage and balance the Sunni Arab Taliban in Afghanistan, and
counterbalance the Sunni jihadists, like those in the Islamic State, or
ISIS, now controlling chunks of Iraq and Syria. The United States has
relied heavily on Saudi Arabia, ever since Iran's 1979 revolution, and
while the Saudi ruling family and elites are aligned with America, there
is a Saudi Wahhabi hard core that has funded the spread of the most
puritanical, anti-pluralistic, anti-women form of Islam that has changed
the character of Arab Islam and helped to foster mutations like ISIS.
There were no Iranians involved in 9/11. Then again, it was Iranian
agents who made the most lethal improvised explosives in Iraq that killed
many American troops there. And it was Iran that encouraged its Iraqi
Shiite allies to reject any extended U.S. military presence in Iraq and to
also overplay their hand in stripping power from Iraqi Sunnis, which is
what helped to produce the ISIS counterreaction. 'In the fight against
ISIS, Iran is both the arsonist and the fire brigade,' added Sadjadpour.
To Saudi Arabia, he added, the rise of ISIS is attributable to the
repression of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq by Iran and its Shiite clients. To
Tehran, the rise of ISIS is attributable to the financial and ideological
support of Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies... Then again, if this
nuclear deal with Iran is finalized, and sanctions lifted, much more
Iranian oil will hit the global market, suppressing prices and benefiting
global consumers. Then again, Iran would have billions of dollars more to
spend on cyberwarfare, long-range ballistic missiles and projecting power
across the Arab world, where its proxies already dominate four Arab
capitals: Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and Sana." http://t.uani.com/1BqtEhb
Eli Lake in
Bloomberg: "'To understand how the hurried
evacuation of U.S. special operations forces from Yemen is connected to
Iran's regional strategy, look no further than Atheel al-Nujaifi, the
Sunni governor of Iraq's Nineveh Province. On Sunday, Nujaifi sent a
letter to U.S. leaders warning that his country was at a tipping point
with regard to Iranian influence. As U.S. forces wait on the sidelines in
an Iranian-led campaign to liberate Tikrit, Nujaifi said he worried that
his country was being lost to Iran. In other words, what has just
happened in Yemen -- where an Iranian-armed and advised militia has
overthrown a pro-American government -- could happen soon in Iraq.
Nujaifi, whose province includes Iraq's second-largest city of Mosul,
addressed his letter to Representative Ed Royce, chairman of the House
Foreign Affairs Committee, and asked that it be placed into the record
for a hearing this week on the administration's strategy against the
Islamic State. The Iraqi governor also sent copies to President Barack
Obama, House Speaker John Boehner, Secretary of State John Kerry and John
Allen, the retired Marine general who is U.S. envoy to the coalition
against the Islamic State. Royce told me that he agrees with Nujaifi that
the administration has failed to challenge Iran's efforts to expand
throughout the Middle East. 'The fact that the governor is compelled to
reach out directly to us in Congress speaks volumes about the sway that
Iran holds over critical positions in the government in Baghdad,' he
said. Nujaifi wrote that Iran 'has essentially taken over the fight in
Iraq against ISIS.' He added, 'But the threat goes even deeper -- there
is a grave and immediate threat that Iran is taking over decisive points
in the government of Iraq itself.' Some may see that as a statement of
the obvious. It has been a refrain for years that America did the
fighting in Iraq but Iran won the war. Iran's Shiite government already
has considerable influence with the Shiite-majority that rules Iraq
today. But this was not always the case." http://t.uani.com/1ET8Wev
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